Why I hope JP is not the second coming of Favre

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

This is prompted by a poster who said he was disappointed in JP's performance to date because he was led to believe by the excitement over JP when he was drafted that he was the second coming of Steve Young.

 

I hope he is neither the second coming of Young or Brett Favre because both of these players so disappointed the TB teams that drafted them that they were run out of town and went to SF and GB respectively where they became stars.

 

The NFL world is full of QBs drafted early by teams who let them go because they did not meet too lofty expectations and used the learning experience of their failure with the team which drafted them to go to glory elsewhere.

 

The good news for the Bills is that JP got sit on his butt and learn the game without the distraction of preparing himself to lead his teammates or the distractions of yucking it up on the sidelines with his teammates amd hopefully watched and learned from the better vantage point of the booth when he was injured gluing his ear to the mouth of Sam Wyche.

 

Its too complicated to easily track the numbers, but the best study I have seen of real life results indicates that QBs who do not start much or even at all their first year like a Pennington or Vick produce better results generally than those who are rushed along to start right away.

 

Par of this result may be a bias created in the numbers by bas teams drafting QBs and putting them on the field right away, but the numerical comparison I have seen for this attempted to take this into account and the results still were in favor of sitting your QB for a year and then they actually make the playoffs with their team sooner than if they are relied upon to quickly.

 

The results were simply consistent with the fact that no team has drafted a QB who has led them to an SB victory since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989. They were consistent with whether you drafted Ryan Leaf or Peyton Manning for 5 or 6 years the two were tied in playoff victories delivered to their team at 0, nada, zilch until Manning finally lurched ahead of Leaf year before last in playoff wins.

 

The trick for the Bills is not likely at all to be whether they turn JP into a stud QB quickly, but whether like Pittsburgh with RoboQB last year they can run and stop the run effectively so that their youg QB is called upon to manage the game at most rather than win it.

 

It certainly is good for us if JP completes a few deep passes so the threat is real to opposing team, However, if the result of the pre-season is actually some bad passes by JP that gets him and MM/TC to learn they should rein his arm and play in a bit I think ultimately the Bills will produce more Ws.

 

I certainly hope he ends up with a 100% completion average and the highest QB rating ever produced. However I know that these dreams will not happen in real life and our braintrust and QB instead do a good job of picking their spots with JP this is probably the best we can do,

[SACTOBILLSFAN]

TB was probably not too disappointed in Favre's play when he was drafted since he was playing for the Falcons.

[ajzepp]

The results were simply consistent with the fact that no team has drafted a QB who has led them to an SB victory since Dallas chose Aikman in 1989.

401155[/snapback]

 

Tom Brady was drafted by the Pats, don't forget.

 

I think talking about superbowl victories is a bit narrow in scope....last year all four quarterbacks in the championship games were drafted by their respective teams.

 

All the JP talk at this point is fun and interesting, but what we need him to do more than anything this year is hand the ball off and not turn it over. I think our defense is going to be special....JP can be the next Favre a few seasons down the road....for right now we just need him to be the next Dilfer.

[envirojeff]

Call me CRAZY, but I'm OK with JP being the second coming of Bret Favre!

 

Another great post by JPera

 

Jeff

[Brandon]

One correction. Brett Favre was hardly run out of Atlanta. The Packers paid dearly to acquire him from the Falcons. He was drafted in 1991, threw only five passes (completed only two, both to the wrong team), and traded for the 17th overall pick in 1992. Steve Young went to the 49ers for a 2nd and a 4th.

[jarthur31]

All of these QB's mentioned struggled mightily for awhile but management saw enough that they could be taught and improve. Both were not the saviors for their teams right off the bat and neither will JP! The fans must learn patience and see that he will succeed with more experience in the league.

 

This is a team sport after all and everyone must contribute. When we win, we all win; when we lose, we all lose. It's really that simple.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I hope Bills fans do show the patience though based on the hyperventilating folks seem to be doing declaring his good but average performance in the scrimmage to be something great I think expectations for him are a bit higher than any QB will reach in his second year (I hope JP is actually an untraded second coming of Favre or Young but this cannot be the measure of whether he is successful or not or he almost certainly will be judged a failure by many unrealistic fans).