The key to this season is not JP,

[Rayzer32]

All I keep hearing and reading about is how the success of the Bills rely's on JPs performance. This is true to a point, but I believe that if Willis can stay healthy throughout the year the Bills will have a winning season. He will be our main offensive threat that other teams will have to prepare for.

 

I don't look for MM to rely on JPs arm to win many games, just manage them properly by keeping the turnovers and sacks down. I see alot of quick drops and roll outs this year, but more WM than anything. JP will not have to be spectacular for the Bills to succeed.

 

Now with this being said, I can see the stat line from the opener against Houston reading like this:

 

Rushing - WM, 12 att for 58 yds

Passing - JP 38/47 for 523 yds and 6 tds.

[Brandon]

I disagree. You can only give the ball to McGahee so many times. In a typical season, a team will run about 1100 offensive plays. I don't like to see a single RB get more than about 300 carries in a single season. Even if the coaches don't see it that way, he probably won't get more than 400 in any circumstance. That leaves another 700-800 plays where someone else has to take up the slack. The backups will get another couple hundred carries (and none of the backups are a proven, reliable running threat), but after that, its largely going to be up to the passing game. JP isn't going to have the luxury of tossing only 295 passes like Roethlisberger last year. He'll probably be called on to throw almost 500 times, so his performance is going to have a lot to do with this team's final record.

[Terry Tate]

He'll probably be called on to throw almost 500 times,  so his performance is going to have a lot to do with this team's final record.

He will have a better RB for the whole season, and an even or better WR corps to work with than Drew had last year. He'll have to achieve Drew Bledsoe-level performance to get to 9-7. To put it in a reasonably optimistic, positive light.

[Jukester]

While I agree that WM's health is important, the real key is how the Offensive Line plays. They looked so-so in the scrimmage. Willis didn't get any major holes against an inferior defense. And the success of JP depends highly on how the OL holds up.

[Rayzer32]

I disagree.  You can only give the ball to McGahee so many times.  In a typical season,  a team will run about 1100 offensive plays.  I don't like to see a single RB get more than about 300 carries in a single season.  Even if the coaches don't see it that way,  he probably won't get more than 400 in any circumstance.  That leaves another 700-800 plays where someone else has to take up the slack.  The backups will get another couple hundred carries (and none of the backups are a proven,  reliable running threat),  but after that,  its largely going to be up to the passing game.  JP isn't going to have the luxury of tossing only 295 passes like Roethlisberger last year.  He'll probably be called on to throw almost 500 times,  so his performance is going to have a lot to do with this team's final record.

400765[/snapback]

JP doesn't have to be great to run a ball control offense. As long as they don't have him dropping back 7 steps and heaving the ball all afternoon, a la DB, he will be okay. WM will be the majority of the offense and deservedly so.

 

Big Ben was NOT spectacular last year like so many think. He was averaging 190 yds passing per week (incl playoffs). He was +6 in the TD/INT dept, again not spectacular. He was called on to manage the game and not be the hero, just like JP will have to do. The Bus was the majority of Pitts offense the last 8 games of the year.

[Rayzer32]

While I agree that WM's health is important,  the real key is how the Offensive Line plays.  They looked so-so in the scrimmage.  Willis didn't get any major holes against an inferior defense.

400775[/snapback]

Did you see him dissapear into the line and then squirt through for his TD run. He doesn't need much of a hole.

 

And the success of JP depends highly on how the OL holds up.

400775[/snapback]

Thus the quick drops and roll outs.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I agree pretty completely. I take what you are saying is NOT an argument that JP's performance is trivial and unimportant, but that while important it is not the key thing, not our point of greatest exposure and potential weakness, and simply the wrong thing to rely upon in order to rack up the Ws.

 

Specifically:

 

1. The actual keys to the game are run and stop the run. A team which has its QB throw and need to throw 20 times or less per game almost certainly is winning. A team whose QB throws for over 300 yards is just as likerly to have done this playing catch-up and lose the game as likely a they are to win it. The key to the game is going to be good management of the game (a difficult feat in and of itself) and if JP put up Trent Dilferesque numbers and a performance rather than a John Elwayesque performance I'd be a very happy camper.

 

2. In addition, I feel very good about Holcomb and while I will be bummed if JP werre to go down again for an extended number of games, I do not think our chances of winning will be diminished much by having Holcomb step up (in fact they may in fact be better given some young QB issues JP showed last night and Holcomb beating up the second team Pack guys). I think the drop-off from WM to Rashard Lee or Williams is far greater than any drop-off from JP to Holcomb.

 

3. Overall, if you want to look at past SB winning QB performances and you asked me whether it is more likely that JP can be Trent Dilfer or John Elway, I think there is no question which is more likely. The tough thing for us is that while is incredibly non-existent for folks to expect JP to be a John Elway, it still is possible but really tough to expect that JP will even be as good a QB as Trent Dilfer was for Balt.

 

Hope does spring eternal though.

[Jukester]

Did you see him dissapear into the line and then squirt through for his TD run.  He doesn't need much of a hole.

400777[/snapback]

 

 

--I also saw him get tackled behind the line and run for 2.5 yard average

 

Thus the quick drops and roll outs.

400777[/snapback]

 

--You can't sustain a full winning season based on such logic. Wouldn't you much rather have a competent OL so you don't have to have JP run around and get injured

[buckeyemike]

The Bills need both players to be healthy, but Willis is a more indispensable part of the offense than J.P. is.

 

Willis does not have a reliable backup, should he get injured. At least J.P. has Holcomb, who has a history of doing well off the bench. Just don't rely on Kelly Holcomb to be your starting QB.

 

What the Bills need to do is to be the best-conditioned team, in order to avoid major injuries and return from the nagging ones every single team has every year.

 

And tell Sam Adams that he can only eat two steaks and six potatoes at every meal. He's too big right now.

 

Mike

[Terry Tate]

And tell Sam Adams that he can only eat two steaks and six potatoes at every meal.  He's too big right now.

I used to think that too, until I saw him run an interception back for a touchdown.

[Rayzer32]

--You can't sustain a full winning season based on such logic.  Wouldn't you much rather have a competent OL so you don't have to have JP run around and get injured

400790[/snapback]

Quick drops and roll outs never worked for NE, right? Yes, their o-line was better than the Bills, but not great. You design plays to hide your weak spots.

[Jukester]

Quick drops and roll outs never worked for NE, right?  Yes, their o-line was better than the Bills, but not great.  You design plays to hide your weak spots.

400795[/snapback]

 

I wasn't saying that quick drops and rollouts don't work. I'm all for them, but you still need a good offensive line to pull even that off. NE builds it's team on line play. That's why they win even when key skill players go down. And that's why Tom Brady has been so successful - granted he's got some skill too. Go Blue!!

[Rayzer32]

NE builds it's team on line play. 

400800[/snapback]

Actually, if you listen to the trolls around here, NE wins because BB is a genius and TB is the best QB to ever walk the face of the Earth. With them two, the Pats don't need anyone else.