Another thing to like about JP

[Kelly the Dog]

Not often mentioned but in most of the scouting reports out of college was that, for a guy playing on a bad team, with a lousy line, running for his life, often behind in the game, with a cocky attitude who thinks he can always make plays, JP Losman had the lowest INT percentage in school history. With a greater than 2-1 TD to INT ratio. 60 TDS and 27 picks, including 33 TDS - 14 INTS as a senior.

 

Yeah, the NFL is different and faster and the defenses far more complex. Yeah, he will struggle and will throw INTs. But it seems that for all the talk and hype about him, he didnt make a lot of bad decisions in college. We'll have to see if he tries to force the ball or cannot read the coverages in the NFL though.

 

http://www.nflplayers.com/players_network/...k.aspx?ID=35771

[EndZoneCrew]

Not often mentioned but in most of the scouting reports out of college was that, for a guy playing on a bad team, with a lousy line, running for his life, often behind in the game, with a cocky attitude who thinks he can always make plays, JP Losman had the lowest INT percentage in school history. With a greater than 2-1 TD to INT ratio. 60 TDS and 27 picks, including 33 TDS - 14 INTS as a senior.

 

Yeah, the NFL is different and faster and the defenses far more complex. Yeah, he will struggle and will throw INTs. But it seems that for all the talk and hype about him, he didnt make a lot of bad decisions in college. We'll have to see if he tries to force the ball or cannot read the coverages in the NFL though.

 

http://www.nflplayers.com/players_network/...k.aspx?ID=35771

395916[/snapback]

 

Agreed.......I happen to believe that he will make the same amount of mistakes that DB made last year, but you have to think that he will make 3-4 plays a game that DB could not make....it's definately a win-win situation

[eball]

great stat. i think we'll see a number of "kelly-esque" INTs this season, simply b/c losman has so much confidence in his arm that he'll try to thread the needle. the key will be for him to shake them off just like kelly was always able to do.

 

"3 INTs in the 1st quarter? big deal. i'll throw 4 TDs in the 2nd."

 

i can't wait for the live GB scrimmage friday night on NFL network.

[Nanker]

Not often mentioned but in most of the scouting reports out of college was that, for a guy playing on a bad team, with a lousy line, running for his life, often behind in the game, with a cocky attitude who thinks he can always make plays, JP Losman had the lowest INT percentage in school history. With a greater than 2-1 TD to INT ratio. 60 TDS and 27 picks, including 33 TDS - 14 INTS as a senior.

 

Yeah, the NFL is different and faster and the defenses far more complex. Yeah, he will struggle and will throw INTs. But it seems that for all the talk and hype about him, he didnt make a lot of bad decisions in college. We'll have to see if he tries to force the ball or cannot read the coverages in the NFL though.

 

http://www.nflplayers.com/players_network/...k.aspx?ID=35771

395916[/snapback]

 

You mean JohnPaul III actually PLAYED Quarterback in College!

 

Why, KTFABD that's WONDERFUL news! I hadn't heard that. I just assumed DonnaHo didn't know his ass from his elbow and grabbed the first 98.6 he could find, slapped a #7 on his ass and gave him the foosball. Wow! JP has actually played the game before. Outstanding!

Wonder what the nay-sayers will have to talk about NOW.

[Crap Throwing Monkey]

Not often mentioned but in most of the scouting reports out of college was that, for a guy playing on a bad team, with a lousy line, running for his life, often behind in the game, with a cocky attitude who thinks he can always make plays, JP Losman had the lowest INT percentage in school history. With a greater than 2-1 TD to INT ratio. 60 TDS and 27 picks, including 33 TDS - 14 INTS as a senior.

 

Yeah, the NFL is different and faster and the defenses far more complex. Yeah, he will struggle and will throw INTs. But it seems that for all the talk and hype about him, he didnt make a lot of bad decisions in college. We'll have to see if he tries to force the ball or cannot read the coverages in the NFL though.

 

http://www.nflplayers.com/players_network/...k.aspx?ID=35771

395916[/snapback]

 

...because college success is a clear indicator of future NFL success...

[Matt in KC]

...because college success is a clear indicator of future NFL success... 

395948[/snapback]

I'd bet that past performance is by far the best predictor.

 

...or maybe the wonderlic is better....

[MadBuffaloDisease]

You mean JohnPaul III actually PLAYED Quarterback in College!

 

Why, KTFABD that's WONDERFUL news! I hadn't heard that. I just assumed DonnaHo didn't know his ass from his elbow and grabbed the first 98.6 he could find, slapped a #7 on his ass and gave him the foosball. Wow! JP has actually played the game before. Outstanding!

Wonder what the nay-sayers will have to talk about NOW.

Uh, that wasn't the point of the thread. It was to say his INT% was low, meaning he made good decisions in college despite an extreme lack of talent around him. And I'll take past success into consideration when there's nothing else to go on except for a few bad moments in a disappointing rookie year.

[Reuben Gant]

At this point JP = "Just Potential"

[Crap Throwing Monkey]

I'd bet that past performance is by far the best predictor.

 

...or maybe the wonderlic is better.... 

395950[/snapback]

 

Yeah, Rick Mirer's college performance carried over well. As did Ryan Leaf's. And Akili Smith's. Todd Collins'. If college performance were that good a predictor, there'd be no such thing as a "first-round bust".

[jad1]

Yeah, Rick Mirer's college performance carried over well.  As did Ryan Leaf's.  And Akili Smith's.  Todd Collins'.  If college performance were that good a predictor, there'd be no such thing as a "first-round bust".

396018[/snapback]

 

Petyon Manning, John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Steve Young, Joe Montana, and Troy Aikmen are examples of players who's college careers were clear indicators of their NFL success.

 

Sure there's busts out there, that's why teams hire guys like good GMs to run their teams, instead of Mike Brown.

[The Jokeman]

Not often mentioned but in most of the scouting reports out of college was that, for a guy playing on a bad team, with a lousy line, running for his life, often behind in the game, with a cocky attitude who thinks he can always make plays, JP Losman had the lowest INT percentage in school history. With a greater than 2-1 TD to INT ratio. 60 TDS and 27 picks, including 33 TDS - 14 INTS as a senior.

 

Yeah, the NFL is different and faster and the defenses far more complex. Yeah, he will struggle and will throw INTs. But it seems that for all the talk and hype about him, he didnt make a lot of bad decisions in college. We'll have to see if he tries to force the ball or cannot read the coverages in the NFL though.

 

http://www.nflplayers.com/players_network/...k.aspx?ID=35771

395916[/snapback]

Actually JP's already thrown his first NFL pick so not sure where the title of this thread was going unless referred to first INT this season.

 

Also, INT % is a good stat but not the most telling stat. As here's a link to the profile of the QB that ranks first in Bills history for lowest interception percentage (2.56)..

[Crap Throwing Monkey]

Petyon Manning, John Elway, Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, Daunte Culpepper, Donovan McNabb, Steve Young, Joe Montana, and Troy Aikmen are examples of players who's college careers were clear indicators of their NFL success.

 

Sure there's busts out there, that's why teams hire guys like good GMs to run their teams, instead of Mike Brown.

396029[/snapback]

 

Actually, Joe Montana was never partuclarly well-regarded coming out of college. The Niners only took him in the third round, at least, and while his stats at Notre Dame weren't bad, they weren't shoot-out-the-lights impressive, either. And as I recall, there were questions early in McNabb's career about whether he'd make it or not.

 

And mentioning Peyton Manning, who was drafted a spot above Ryan Leaf, just shows what a crap shoot college performance is. Leaf's and Manning's performance was broadly comparable (3-1 TD-INT ratio, Leaf had a slightly better yards per attempt and slightly worse completion percentage), they were taken successively in the draft, one failed miserably and one succeeded wildly. If college performance were THAT great a predictor, they would both still be starters.

[jad1]

Actually, Joe Montana was never partuclarly well-regarded coming out of college.  The Niners only took him in the third round, at least, and while his stats at Notre Dame weren't bad, they weren't shoot-out-the-lights impressive, either.  And as I recall, there were questions early in McNabb's career about whether he'd make it or not.

 

And mentioning Peyton Manning, who was drafted a spot above Ryan Leaf, just shows what a crap shoot college performance is.  Leaf's and Manning's performance was broadly comparable (3-1 TD-INT ratio, Leaf had a slightly better yards per attempt and slightly worse completion percentage), they were taken successively in the draft, one failed miserably and one succeeded wildly.  If college performance were THAT great a predictor, they would both still be starters.

396151[/snapback]

 

The Manning/Leaf decision is an example of how the draft is NOT a crap shoot. Leaf had enough red flags about him and his character that he should have warned off the Chargers.

 

Leaf also worked out of a spread offense, while Manning worked from a more traditional pro offense. System QBs taken early in the 1st round have proven to be huge flops in the NFL. Again, GMs should know better.

 

Beathard ignored those warnings and drafted him anyway. It was a huge mistake to draft him that high. Teams heeded similar warnings about Aaron Rogers in this year's draft, causing him to fall out of the top 10.

 

A couple of idiot GMs make poor decisions drafting a guy like Leaf, Klingler, or Ware early in the first round, and all of a sudden the draft is a huge crap shoot that nobody can figure out.

 

Take the McNabb example. Reid, a good "GM," picks McNabb and Philly goes nuts because they wanted Ricky Williams.

 

But Williams was a certifiable flake even back in Texas. McNabb is a solid character guy who put up big passing numbers in a traditional run-first offense.

 

Iron-Mike Ditka then trades his entire draft for the kooky Williams.

 

So is the draft a huge crap-shoot that nobody can figure out, or can it be succesfully mined by a smart GM while it crushes a bad GM? I believe it's the latter.

[Matt in KC]

Yeah, Rick Mirer's college performance carried over well.  As did Ryan Leaf's.  And Akili Smith's.  Todd Collins'.  If college performance were that good a predictor, there'd be no such thing as a "first-round bust".

396018[/snapback]

I just said best predictor, not that there are any great predictors. There are a lot of anectdotes both ways, though I'd bet that college performance, with the size of the program factored in, would fair better than the Wonderlic, combine scores, preseason media reports etc..

 

All I'm saying is that you shouldn't pooh-pooh the college stats. I think they're the most germane data available, especially when considering somethink like risk-taking. I think TD/INT ratio in college stats are a good indication of how risky the QB is likely to be in the NFL. Whether or not they have the skills, can adjust to the new environment or other factors influence them is another matter. I'll guess TD/INT ratio is probably relatively stable accross NFL careers (something to research).

 

I'm very happy to read that JPL has a history of protecting the ball, since we appear to be in good shape as a team if JPL does not turn it over.

[jarthur31]

When the season starts, I won't be one of many on this board who will become hysterical with his performance. He's still a rookie regardless of "NFL experience" he's already had.

 

It's up to the line and the running game to take the pressure off of JP. That's the bottom line.

[Bob in SC]

Isn't there an obvious explanation for why players like JP have a low interception percentage in College? Perhaps, in my current state of fatigue, I am just missing something here.

 

Those who can't run, either get sacked or take a chance on an interception when they lack an open receiver (e.g., DB). Those who can run have another option - they don't have to force the ball to avoid a sack. So they end up with fewer interceptions. When they run with success (J. P. in college), all is well. The question is, will he be as successful running in the NFL?

[nonprophet]

Take the McNabb example.  Reid, a good "GM," picks McNabb and Philly goes nuts because they wanted Ricky Williams. 

Wasn't Tom Modrak the Eagles' GM when McNabb was drafted?

[Crap Throwing Monkey]

The Manning/Leaf decision is an example of how the draft is NOT a crap shoot.  Leaf had enough red flags about him and his character that he should have warned off the Chargers. 

 

Leaf also worked out of a spread offense, while Manning worked from a more traditional pro offense.  System QBs taken early in the 1st round have proven to be huge flops in the NFL.  Again, GMs should know better.

 

Beathard ignored those warnings and drafted him anyway.  It was a huge mistake to draft him that high.  Teams heeded similar warnings about Aaron Rogers in this year's draft, causing him to fall out of the top 10.

396224[/snapback]

 

In other words...Leaf's college performance was NOT a predictor of success in the NFL.

 

That's pretty much what you just said. Leaf and Manning had comparable college numbers, but played in different systems and had different character. And you're saying that the systems and their character were the determining factor...that almost sounds like you agree with me.

 

But then of course there's McNabb...who performed in college and, near as I could ever tell, was of good character, but played in yet another system. So maybe it IS college performance that's a predictor, along with character...

 

 

Or, like I said, it's a crap-shoot...in that there are no predictors, just general tendencies on which you place your bets and take your chances. And ultimately, the guy performs on the field...or not.

[sfladave]

Actually JP's already thrown his first NFL pick so not sure where the title of this thread was going unless referred to first INT this season.

 

Also, INT % is a good stat but not the most telling stat. As here's a link to the profile of the QB that   ranks first in Bills history for lowest interception percentage (2.56)..

396081[/snapback]

Well it is hard to throw interceptions when you're lying on your back with a big DL on top of you.

[jad1]

In other words...Leaf's college performance was NOT a predictor of success in the NFL. 

 

That's pretty much what you just said.  Leaf and Manning had comparable college numbers, but played in different systems and had different character.  And you're saying that the systems and their character were the determining factor...that almost sounds like you agree with me.

 

But then of course there's McNabb...who performed in college and, near as I could ever tell, was of good character, but played in yet another system.  So maybe it IS college performance that's a predictor, along with character...

 

 

Or, like I said, it's a crap-shoot...in that there are no predictors, just general tendencies on which you place your bets and take your chances.  And ultimately, the guy performs on the field...or not.

396565[/snapback]

 

 

Try a little harder here. You assume "on-field performance" only equates to stats, it doesn't.

 

There's more to on-field performance than just stats. There's a difference between Peyton Manning, who drove the Tennesee offense and Danny Wurffel, who played in Spurrier's college run-and-gun.

 

McNabb garnered good passing stats, even though he was in a run heavy offense. The fact that he was successful proved that he had ability rather than was a product of the system.

 

McNabb (and Montana) also showed toughness and character on the field, and led their teams on improbable comebacks.

 

And there are predictors, both on the field and off. At the either end of the spectrum, it was pretty easy to see that Manning was going to be a star, and Lawrence Phillips was going to be a flop.

 

Good GMs research players and measure them against those predictors. Bad GMs ingore them and make bad picks.

 

That's why teams spend millions on scouting departments, because if it were really the crapshoot you claim, teams could replace their scouting departments with a stat sheet.

 

The draft is definitely more science than crapshoot. Good GMs understand that and make it work for them.