Football Outsiders analysis of T Henry

[Coach Tuesday]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=2712&cat=16

 

Four Downs: AFC East

by Aaron Schatz

 

 

 

Buffalo Bills

Let Him Dangle

Travis Henry is going to Seattle. Travis Henry is going to Jacksonville. Travis Henry is going to Tennessee. Travis Henry is going to the Red Sox for Kevin Millar and he’s going to the Knicks for Stephon Marbury. We don’t know which one of those trade rumors is going to prove true, but everyone is pretty sure that Travis “Little Hands of Concrete” Henry is leaving Buffalo.

 

What does the future hold for Mr. Henry? Let’s take a look at the most similar players since 1978 using our system of similarity scores (explained here). First, here are Henry’s conventional numbers for the past three seasons:

 

Year Team G Rush RuYD RuTD Yd/C Rec RecYD RecTD Age

2002 BUF 16 325 1438 13 4.42 43 309 1 24

2003 BUF 15 331 1356 10 4.10 28 158 1 25

2004 BUF 10 94 326 0 3.47 10 45 0 26

 

Because Henry had such a huge drop-off in usage between 2003 and 2004, the list of similar players changes dramatically depending on whether you list the most similar players over one season, two seasons, or three seasons. The list of similar single seasons has plenty of players who never came close to 1,350 yards; the list of similar two-year stretches features a number of players whose 1,300-yard season was a one-time event, not a repeat from the previous year; the list of similar three-year stretches isn’t necessarily that similar, as you get a lot of players who were similar the first two years and not quite as bad in year three.

 

Let’s start with similar players in a single season. One of these guys is pretty familiar to Buffalo fans, and he also switched teams the next season:

 

Player Year Age Team G Rush RuYD RuTD Yd/C Rec RecYD RecTD SIM

Gary Brown 1995 26 HOU 9 86 293 0 3.41 6 16 0 956

Antowain Smith 2000 28 BUF 10 101 354 4 3.50 3 20 0 943

Travis Minor 2004 25 MIA 11 109 388 3 3.56 13 75 0 932

Reggie Brooks 1996 25 TB 11 112 368 2 3.29 3 13 0 925

Cleveland Gary 1991 25 RAM 10 68 245 1 3.60 13 110 0 918

 

"SIM" is the similarity score – the closer to 1000, the more similar. (When we do multiple years, it is the harmonic mean of two or three similarity scores.)

 

If Henry wants to prove to people that he can still be a starter somewhere, he’s got a lot of good evidence on this list, starting with Antowain Smith. Like Henry, Smith was a former starter sent to the bench, but his previous seasons weren’t similar to Henry’s – they were worse. He had gone from 1,124 yards to 614 to 354, and 2000 was Smith’s third straight season below 3.75 yards per carry. The Bills released him, the Patriots signed him, and a year later he was coming off a career-best 1,157 yards and a Super Bowl championship. Smith’s not the only player on this list who had a 1,000-yard season the next year; Cleveland Gary did as well. Gary Brown lost 1996 to injury but had 945 yards for the 1997 Chargers and 1063 yards for the 1998 Giants. On the other hand, Reggie Brooks never played again, and Carson Kressley will have a 1,000-yard rushing season before Travis Minor ever does.

 

Next, the most similar players over a two-year span. For space purposes, we’ll leave off receiving numbers here, but they are reflected in the similarity computations. Age reflects the more recent season.

 

First Year Second Year

Name Years Age Team G Rush Yds TD Yd/C G Rush Yds TD Yd/C SIM

Erric Pegram 93-94 25 ATL 16 292 1185 3 4.06 13 103 358 1 3.48 888

Errict Rhett 95-96 26 TB 16 332 1207 11 3.64 9 176 539 3 3.06 854

Dorsey Levens 97-98 28 GB 16 329 1435 7 4.36 7 115 378 1 3.29 852

Mike Rozier 88-89 28 HOU 15 251 1002 10 4.06 12 88 301 2 3.42 847

Dalton Hilliard 89-90 26 NO 16 344 1262 13 3.67 6 90 284 0 3.16 846

 

The first thing that should jump out at you is this question: "How on earth do you rush for 1185 yards and only score three touchdowns?" Erric Pegram was playing on Jerry Glanville’s last run-n-shoot team, and the 1993 Falcons had 28 passing TDs but only 4 rushing TDs. The 1992 team was even worse, with 33 passing TDs and only 3 rushing TDs. Pegram had just 89 yards rushing that season, and his career wasn’t much like Henry’s. He was a backup who had one big year, and then reverted to his previous backup status. He did change teams in 1995, like Henry probably will, and he put up 813 yards sharing time with Bam Morris for the AFC Champion Steelers.

 

Levens is more like Pegram than he is like Henry – his career consists of one huge season (1997) and one moderately good season two years later (1,034 yards in 1999). The 1998 season similar to Henry’s 2004 was caused by injury, not benching.

 

Errict Rhett is Henry’s worst nightmare. He was a two-year starter in Tampa Bay, but like Henry he tallied up lots of yards and touchdowns because he carried the ball so much, not because he was very good at it. In each of his 1,000-yard seasons, he had just 3.6 yards per carry. He spent the first half of 1996 in an extended contract holdout and when he came back he was horrible, with 3.1 yards per carry, and had to share the load with a rookie named Mike Alstott. Then the Bucs drafted Warrick Dunn to compliment Alstott and that was pretty much it for Errict Rhett.

 

Both Rhett and Mike Rozier show up again on the list of the top three-year comparables:

 

First Year Second Year Third Year

Name Years Age Yeam G Rush Yds TD Yd/C G Rush Yds TD Yd/C G Rush Yds TD Yd/C SIM

Mike Rozier 87-89 28 HOU 15 312 1305 4 4.18 15 251 1002 10 3.99 12 88 301 2 3.42 844

Corey Dillon 01-03 29 CIN 16 340 1315 10 3.87 16 314 1311 7 4.18 13 138 541 2 3.92 814

Errict Rhett 94-96 26 TB 16 284 1011 7 3.56 16 332 1207 11 3.64 9 176 539 3 3.06 813

Duce Staley 98-00 25 PHI 16 258 1065 5 4.13 16 325 1273 4 3.92 5 79 344 1 4.35 812

Greg Bell 88-90 28 LA 16 288 1212 16 4.21 16 272 1137 15 4.18 6 47 164 1 3.49 810

 

As you can see from those similarity numbers, we’re stretching things at this point, because Henry’s career path is abnormal. Henry has only one player with a three-year similarity above 815, and to get even that one guy we had to pro-rate stats from the 1987 strike year. By comparison, Shaun Alexander 2002-2004 has 21 players with a three-year similarity above 815. (Alexander’s top three, for the curious: Curt Warner 1985-87, Tony Dorsett 1979-81, and Walter Payton 1978-80.)

 

Is Corey Dillon similar to Henry? Well, each player lost his job to a younger teammate and then became trade bait. But Dillon was three years older when he lost his job to Rudi Johnson (the age difference is reflected in the similarity score) and was traded into the perfect situation, a defending champion with only one hole on offense: running back. Unless Ryan Moats and Correll Buckhalter both get injured and Philly is desperate for someone to match with Brian Westbrook, Henry’s out of luck.

 

Duce Staley comes out as similar to Henry just because nobody else does. His bad third year was caused by injury, not benching, and while the rushing numbers are similar, the receiving numbers are very different, marking Staley as a very different kind of player.

 

No, Henry’s future is likely closer to Rozier and Rhett Rozier had two average years as part of a committee in Atlanta and then retired. Rhett piddled around, got one more year as a starter in Baltimore in 1999, played at replacement level (3.8 DPAR), and was replaced. Greg Bell, by the way, never played again – he is listed as "LA" because he had two big years with the Rams, was kicked to the curb in favor of Cleveland Gary, moved across town to the Raiders for a year as a backup, and was gone.

 

The best statement about Henry doesn’t come from similarity scores, but from our advanced metrics which take into account opponent and situation. Here are Henry’s rushing DVOA and DPAR for the past four years (those stats are explained here) along with rank among backs with at least 75 carries:

 

Year DVOA Rank DPAR Rank

2001 -21.8% 42 -8.3 43

2002 -9.1% 39 7.6 32

2003 -7.3% 36 9.5 29

2004 -10.6% 39 1.4 41

 

Dr. Z says that Henry is "a terrific runner," but I politely object. I understand not wanting to pay Shaun Alexander when there’s a market glut for running backs, but if the Seahawks are going to give up a draft pick for this instead of playing Maurice Morris, they’re crazy.

[stuckincincy]

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