Reason to hope?

[Mikie2times]

With so much media and fan talk about our team’s chances resting on JP I decided to do a study on 1st round QB’s. In order to do an accurate report I stuck within the last 7 drafts, from 1998-2004. Obviously the further back you go the more the game changes. I thought the last seven years would not only be a large enough sample but also represent today’s game fairly well.

 

What I did was take every first round QB in the last 7 years and separated them into two groups. Group one consists of quarterbacks that started games in their first year. Some started less then five, some over 12, overall the average was 9 total games. Group two consists of quarterbacks that started after season one.

 

My goal in all this was to determine what chances JP has of performing at or above Drew Bledsoe’s level this coming season. With us so close last year many feel that if JP can perform at Bledsoe levels we could be a playoff team. For those that don’t have the info handy Bledsoe posted a very average 76.6 rating this past season. So as I move onto my findings keep that number in the back of your mind.

 

An astonishing 15 out of 18 players make up group one. Amongst the rookie first round starters only Big Ben went on to have a pro bowl caliber season. The average QB rating was a 66.8, with 5 players posting a rating in the 70’s. The rest of the players fell in the mid 60’s with 3 players falling in the 50 range. Out of the 18 first round players 9 players are slated to start for their respective teams this season.

 

Only 3 players out of the 18 drafted had the luxury of learning the first season. Those three players include Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, and Daunte Cullpeper. Palmer and Cullpeper started in year 2, while Pennington got to wait until year 3. The average first year QB rating of these three players is 93.1. Palmer had the lowest rating at 77.3, with both Cullpeper and Pennington around the 100 mark.

 

So how should we be left to interpret this data? Well first off many other factors exist into these player ratings. Most importantly teams that start 1st round QB’s usually draft high, and have weaker teams. These players are thrown to the fire to take on what is arguably the most difficult position in the NFL. It’s no surprise half of them fail, with the vast majority performing badly the first year. The ones that find success are most likely not the most physically gifted but are probably the most mentally tough. You place the hopes of a franchise in the hands of an inexperienced 21 year old, surround him with poor talent, and say learn. Many of these guys just can’t handle that kind of stress and they end up losing the edge that got them there in the first place.

 

Group 2 players which now have the addition of JP Losman enter the league under much different circumstances. Usually if a team has the luxury of waiting to start these players they already have a competitive team. This in itself takes loads of pressure of the position, but even more important is the fact that these guys can sit and absorb things for a year while group one guys are forced to learn on the fly.

 

JP will likely struggle at times but expecting a high 70’s QB rating is not being unrealistic. Over the last seven years all three players in his position posted that rating and two of them posted a mark much higher. You can even tip the scales more in JP’s favor as the talent on this years Bills team will compare very favorable to the teams Palmer, Pennington, and Cullpeper started their first season with.

[Stussy109]

Very intelligent post, I like the data analysis.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Good thorough analysis which is also smart including many of the caveats that make even thorough analysis an interesting indicator of what may happen rather than conclusive proof. Many posters offer opinions as stone cold locks certain to haooen with far less analysis.

 

The conclusion you make seem to make sense to me and dovetail with things I see in the game. The conventional wisdom of many folks is that a rookie QB must play in order to become a vet. I think your data indicates this not only may not be true, but in fact sitting and watching has proved to be the ticket to productive play by both Culpepper and Pennington. It really struck me in last year's draft when Kyle Boller said that one of the surprises he had in his rookie year was that after he got hurt and was forced to sit and watch that it surprised him how much you could learn simply watching the game and that in fact there were things you coukd not learn or learn well while you were playing and at the very least distracted by preparing yourself to lead your teammates into battle rather than simply analyzingand understanding intellectually what is going on.

 

I will noy be surprised if because he seemed to have recovered fully physically from the injury if JPL ends up saying that it was one of the best things that happened to him in his development because he got to sit at Sam Wyche's knee and be up in the booth watching the play develop as a whole rather than the up close limitations of seeing things from the field and yukking it up with the other bench warmers during the game.

[bartshan-83]

Very nice analysis. Very good read.

 

It would also be nice to know how well those group ONE guys did in their second year as opposed to the group TWO guys' first years. It wouldn't really give us any more indicators of JPs potential success, but it would help shed light on the debate of starting QBs in the first year vs. giving them a year to learn.

 

 

Great post.

[stuckincincy]

Excellect post - it distills into words what many feel to be the case.

[The_Real]

With so much media and fan talk about our team’s chances resting on JP I decided to do a study on 1st round QB’s. In order to do an accurate report I stuck within the last 7 drafts, from 1998-2004. Obviously the further back you go the more the game changes.  I thought the last seven years would not only be a large enough sample but also represent today’s game fairly well.

 

What I did was take every first round QB in the last 7 years and separated them into two groups. Group one consists of quarterbacks that started games in their first year. Some started less then five, some over 12, overall the average was 9 total games. Group two consists of quarterbacks that started after season one.

 

My goal in all this was to determine what chances JP has of performing at or above Drew Bledsoe’s level this coming season. With us so close last year many feel that if JP can perform at Bledsoe levels we could be a playoff team. For those that don’t have the info handy Bledsoe posted a very average 76.6 rating this past season. So as I move onto my findings keep that number in the back of your mind. 

 

An astonishing 15 out of 18 players make up group one. Amongst the rookie first round starters only Big Ben went on to have a pro bowl caliber season.  The average QB rating was a 66.8, with 5 players posting a rating in the 70’s. The rest of the players fell in the mid 60’s with 3 players falling in the 50 range. Out of the 18 first round players 9 players are slated to start for their respective teams this season.

 

Only 3 players out of the 18 drafted had the luxury of learning the first season. Those three players include Carson Palmer, Chad Pennington, and Daunte Cullpeper.  Palmer and Cullpeper started in year 2, while Pennington got to wait until year 3. The average first year QB rating of these three players is 93.1. Palmer had the lowest rating at 77.3, with both Cullpeper and Pennington around the 100 mark.   

 

So how should we be left to interpret this data? Well first off many other factors exist into these player ratings. Most importantly teams that start 1st round QB’s usually draft high, and have weaker teams. These players are thrown to the fire to take on what is arguably the most difficult position in the NFL. It’s no surprise half of them fail, with the vast majority performing badly the first year. The ones that find success are most likely not the most physically gifted but are probably the most mentally tough. You place the hopes of a franchise in the hands of an inexperienced 21 year old, surround him with poor talent, and say learn. Many of these guys just can’t handle that kind of stress and they end up losing the edge that got them there in the first place.

 

Group 2 players which now have the addition of JP Losman enter the league under much different circumstances. Usually if a team has the luxury of waiting to start these players they already have a competitive team. This in itself takes loads of pressure of the position, but even more important is the fact that these guys can sit and absorb things for a year while group one guys are forced to learn on the fly.

 

JP will likely struggle at times but expecting a high 70’s QB rating is not being unrealistic. Over the last seven years all three players in his position posted that rating and two of them posted a mark much higher. You can even tip the scales more in JP’s favor as the talent on this years Bills team will compare very favorable to the teams Palmer, Pennington, and Cullpeper started their first season with.

383911[/snapback]

 

Not to toot your horn or anything but that is a great post. Great evaluation of the the two groups.

 

Seriously, very informative.

 

Thanks

[eball]

i'll echo the thoughts of many and say thanks for the analysis that we were too lazy to research. good job.

 

 

now, go take your optimism and shove it. there's no place for that here.

[The Tomcat]

People just need to remember that JP doesn't need to great...

 

If he's an average QB then we should be even with last year. Anything over Average is a huge bonus...throw out that Willis will be the man this year and Average play from JP equals playoffs!.......

 

Go JP!!!!

[Albany,n.y.]

Thanks for the post Kzoo.

Now if you add non 1st rounder Tom Brady, who played in 1 game and completed 1 pass in 3 attempts for 6 yards with a 42.4 QB rating his rookie year & won the Super Bowl his next season, maybe the Negative Nancys will get off JP's case. One could also look at Kurt Warner, who was in his 2nd NFL season and also won the Super Bowl completing 4 of 11 passes for 39 yards and a 47.2 QB rating as an "NFL Rookie"-I don't buy into the Arenaball & Europe "experience".

JP was 3 for 5 32 yards 39.2 rating. Not much worse than the 2 Super Bowl winning QBs the season before they won the Super Bowl.

The only struggling I expect from JP is when he struggles to get off the field next February in Detroit with all the reporters wanting to talk to him after he's the winning QB of SBXL

[lawnboy1977]

Certainly gives us some perspective. This seems like something I'd hear from merril Hoge.

[eball]

Certainly gives us some perspective.  This seems like something I'd hear from merril Hoge.

384660[/snapback]

when has merril hoge provided perspective on anything? and can that dude's shoulders be any narrower?

 

[Astrobot]

Us droids love stats. And Us love this thread!

It's nice to know the percentages are right for JPL equaling or bettering Drew's 76!

 

--Astrobot

[cåblelady]

Us droids love stats. And Us love this thread!

It's nice to know the percentages are right for JPL equaling or bettering Drew's 76!

 

--Astrobot

384688[/snapback]

 

You're not a droid......you're a bot.

 

[Astrobot]

Oh, yeah.