Beerball Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 It's an insider article so I'll paste in the first 15 picks. It takes at least three years to accurately assess a draft class. The 2002 class produced at least six blue-chip players in the first round, including Julius Peppers, Roy Williams, Dwight Freeney, Javon Walker, Ed Reed and Charles Grant – with just as many coming in the latter half of the first round as the first half. Some teams regard John Henderson, Albert Haynesworth and Jeremy Shockey as blue-chip talents. Wendell Bryant, Mike Rumph and Marc Colombo were regarded as the biggest busts. Phillip Buchanon and Napoleon Harris, thanks to the Raiders, will get a chance to prove themselves again with new teams. What follows is a breakdown of the 2002 first-round class now that it can be evaluated after three years. Editor's note: Blue chip indicates an elite talent – a difference maker who consistently makes big plays. Red chip indicates an impact player with starter-type production who can improve in at least one area. Purple indicates a solid starter you can win with and who usually gets the job done. Orange indicates backup production. Green indicates a player with upside but who can be a liability to put on the field. A plus or minus indicates that a player is on the verge of fitting into another category. 1. Houston Texans QB David Carr | Fresno State Improves as the talent around him improves, but expectations cannot be high with the number of times he has been on his back in his brief pro career. Very tough, smart and mature with fine poise. Will force passes and can still improve decision making, but he has proven to be very capable when he has protection. Evaluation: Red chip. 2. Carolina Panthers DE Julius Peppers | North Carolina Rare athlete for his size with the explosiveness and edge speed to dominate as a pass rusher. Has the athletic ability and body control to drop into coverage. Still growing as a pass rusher, and instincts are not where they could be, but has emerged as one of the top five defensive ends in football. Evaluation: Blue chip. 3. Detroit Lions QB Joey Harrington | Oregon Harrington has yet to prove he can be a consistent starter in three years at the helm of the West Coast offense. Has made strides every year, but is too streaky and doesn't drive the team downfield, panicking in the face of pressure and dumping the ball off too early. Mental toughness and accuracy must improve. Evaluation: Purple-minus. 4. Buffalo Bills OT Mike Williams | Texas Not a great athlete, but has made big strides under tutelage of Jim McNally. Can continue to improve in pass protection, but flashes ability to knock defenders off the ball as a run blocker. Evaluation: Red chip. 5. San Diego Chargers CB Quentin Jammer | Texas Imposes his will on receivers, but lacks great quickness and gets beat by double moves too often. Struggles matching up with speed and appears to lose confidence at times. Would like to see more hits on the ball. A starter with limitations. Conversion to safety could come sooner than later. Evaluation: Purple-plus. 6. Kansas City Chiefs DT Ryan Sims | North Carolina Production doesn't match ability, but got into training camp late as a rookie, has been hurt for the better part of two years and had to endure a defensive coaching change. Flashes ability, but growth has been stunted by outside factors and has yet to prove worthy of high choice. Jury is still out. Has upside. Evaluation: Orange-plus. 7. Minnesota Vikings OT Bryant McKinnie | Miami (Fla.) Too lazy and gets beat much more than a player with his athletic ability should, but he did finish last season strong. Has the size, natural athleticism and foot quickness to be dominant, but strength, conditioning and football demeanor are average. A very capable starter with upside. Evaluation: Purple-plus. 8. Dallas Cowboys S Roy Williams | Oklahoma Fearless tackler and terrorizing blitzer with outstanding instincts and football intelligence. Does not have great range and may never be great as a zone defender, but is a force for whom teams must scheme. Evaluation: Blue chip. 9. Jacksonville Jaguars DT John Henderson | Tennessee Does not have great initial quickness and will lose leverage, but he uses his long arms well to keep defenders off his body and shows more pass-rush moves than most defensive tackles. Evaluation: Red chip-plus. 10. Cincinnati Bengals OT Levi Jones | Arizona State Naturally athletic with the quickness and athletic ability to handle edge speed. Would like to see more passion and nastiness. Evaluation: Red chip-minus. 11. Indianapolis Colts DE Dwight Freeney | Syracuse Arguably the best pass rusher in football. Without question the most explosive off the corner. Speed-strength combination overcompensates for lack of size. Evaluation: Blue chip. 12. Arizona Cardinals DT Wendell Bryant | Wisconsin Was asked to take on blocks and two-gap early in his career after reporting to camp late, and it did not fit his strengths. Best at penetrating and playing in gaps and is better suited in Clancy Pendergast's defense. But after being suspended for the first four games last season, he never was able to get into rhythm. Could really emerge in fourth year, but he looks like a busted pick through three years. Evaluation: Orange. 13. New Orleans Saints WR Donte' Stallworth | Tennessee Very raw coming out of Tennessee, where he was simply able to run past defenders. Shows explosive speed to get separation, but has been slowed by hamstring injuries, lack of toughness and case of drops. Having to learn precise routes and get to the right spot seems to have affected concentration. Has largely underachieved after showing much promise as a rookie. Evaluation: Purple-plus. 14. New York Giants TE Jeremy Shockey | Miami (Fla.) Great athlete who makes a lot of plays, but has dropped a lot of clutch passes. Has limitations as a blocker. Evaluation: Red chip-plus. 15. Tennessee Titans DT Albert Haynesworth | Tennessee Dominant when he wants to be but has always relied too much on natural talent. Has never developed into a leader or consistent technician and loafs too much. Feast-or-famine type of player. Evaluation: Red chip. FWIW they rate Williams above McKinnie and Jones. I would place Shockey lower until he proves he can stay on the field. Thoughts?
Mickey Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 It's an insider article so I'll paste in the first 15 picks. It takes at least three years to accurately assess a draft class. The 2002 class produced at least six blue-chip players in the first round, including Julius Peppers, Roy Williams, Dwight Freeney, Javon Walker, Ed Reed and Charles Grant – with just as many coming in the latter half of the first round as the first half. Some teams regard John Henderson, Albert Haynesworth and Jeremy Shockey as blue-chip talents. Wendell Bryant, Mike Rumph and Marc Colombo were regarded as the biggest busts. Phillip Buchanon and Napoleon Harris, thanks to the Raiders, will get a chance to prove themselves again with new teams. What follows is a breakdown of the 2002 first-round class now that it can be evaluated after three years. Editor's note: Blue chip indicates an elite talent – a difference maker who consistently makes big plays. Red chip indicates an impact player with starter-type production who can improve in at least one area. Purple indicates a solid starter you can win with and who usually gets the job done. Orange indicates backup production. Green indicates a player with upside but who can be a liability to put on the field. A plus or minus indicates that a player is on the verge of fitting into another category. 1. Houston Texans QB David Carr | Fresno State Improves as the talent around him improves, but expectations cannot be high with the number of times he has been on his back in his brief pro career. Very tough, smart and mature with fine poise. Will force passes and can still improve decision making, but he has proven to be very capable when he has protection. Evaluation: Red chip. 2. Carolina Panthers DE Julius Peppers | North Carolina Rare athlete for his size with the explosiveness and edge speed to dominate as a pass rusher. Has the athletic ability and body control to drop into coverage. Still growing as a pass rusher, and instincts are not where they could be, but has emerged as one of the top five defensive ends in football. Evaluation: Blue chip. 3. Detroit Lions QB Joey Harrington | Oregon Harrington has yet to prove he can be a consistent starter in three years at the helm of the West Coast offense. Has made strides every year, but is too streaky and doesn't drive the team downfield, panicking in the face of pressure and dumping the ball off too early. Mental toughness and accuracy must improve. Evaluation: Purple-minus. 4. Buffalo Bills OT Mike Williams | Texas Not a great athlete, but has made big strides under tutelage of Jim McNally. Can continue to improve in pass protection, but flashes ability to knock defenders off the ball as a run blocker. Evaluation: Red chip. 5. San Diego Chargers CB Quentin Jammer | Texas Imposes his will on receivers, but lacks great quickness and gets beat by double moves too often. Struggles matching up with speed and appears to lose confidence at times. Would like to see more hits on the ball. A starter with limitations. Conversion to safety could come sooner than later. Evaluation: Purple-plus. 6. Kansas City Chiefs DT Ryan Sims | North Carolina Production doesn't match ability, but got into training camp late as a rookie, has been hurt for the better part of two years and had to endure a defensive coaching change. Flashes ability, but growth has been stunted by outside factors and has yet to prove worthy of high choice. Jury is still out. Has upside. Evaluation: Orange-plus. 7. Minnesota Vikings OT Bryant McKinnie | Miami (Fla.) Too lazy and gets beat much more than a player with his athletic ability should, but he did finish last season strong. Has the size, natural athleticism and foot quickness to be dominant, but strength, conditioning and football demeanor are average. A very capable starter with upside. Evaluation: Purple-plus. 8. Dallas Cowboys S Roy Williams | Oklahoma Fearless tackler and terrorizing blitzer with outstanding instincts and football intelligence. Does not have great range and may never be great as a zone defender, but is a force for whom teams must scheme. Evaluation: Blue chip. 9. Jacksonville Jaguars DT John Henderson | Tennessee Does not have great initial quickness and will lose leverage, but he uses his long arms well to keep defenders off his body and shows more pass-rush moves than most defensive tackles. Evaluation: Red chip-plus. 10. Cincinnati Bengals OT Levi Jones | Arizona State Naturally athletic with the quickness and athletic ability to handle edge speed. Would like to see more passion and nastiness. Evaluation: Red chip-minus. 11. Indianapolis Colts DE Dwight Freeney | Syracuse Arguably the best pass rusher in football. Without question the most explosive off the corner. Speed-strength combination overcompensates for lack of size. Evaluation: Blue chip. 12. Arizona Cardinals DT Wendell Bryant | Wisconsin Was asked to take on blocks and two-gap early in his career after reporting to camp late, and it did not fit his strengths. Best at penetrating and playing in gaps and is better suited in Clancy Pendergast's defense. But after being suspended for the first four games last season, he never was able to get into rhythm. Could really emerge in fourth year, but he looks like a busted pick through three years. Evaluation: Orange. 13. New Orleans Saints WR Donte' Stallworth | Tennessee Very raw coming out of Tennessee, where he was simply able to run past defenders. Shows explosive speed to get separation, but has been slowed by hamstring injuries, lack of toughness and case of drops. Having to learn precise routes and get to the right spot seems to have affected concentration. Has largely underachieved after showing much promise as a rookie. Evaluation: Purple-plus. 14. New York Giants TE Jeremy Shockey | Miami (Fla.) Great athlete who makes a lot of plays, but has dropped a lot of clutch passes. Has limitations as a blocker. Evaluation: Red chip-plus. 15. Tennessee Titans DT Albert Haynesworth | Tennessee Dominant when he wants to be but has always relied too much on natural talent. Has never developed into a leader or consistent technician and loafs too much. Feast-or-famine type of player. Evaluation: Red chip. FWIW they rate Williams above McKinnie and Jones. I would place Shockey lower until he proves he can stay on the field. Thoughts? 377268[/snapback] It's hard to argue with most of these assessments. I would point out that McKinnie hasn't really had three years since his first was a bust. There is probably more reason to think he has not yet peaked as compared to Williams and Jones who likely are playing as good as they are ever going to. Another thing to consider when it comes to big Mike, I would think that drafting him as high as we did, it was thought that he would ultimately be playing LT, not RT. Certainly, the many debates we had on the board with regard to who we should take that year often revolved around that issue. My recollection is that most took it as a given that he was eventually going to be moved to LT. Either he hasn't played well enough for that to happen or it was never really the plan to begin with. If that is the case, we either drafted him too high for a guy slated to play RT or we drafted him too high given his inability to improve enough to play LT as was planned. At the time, I was not very high on him because he hadn't played on the left side. Those who disagreed pointed out that he only played on the right in college because their QB was a lefty. I believed then and believe now that the skill sets needed at LT and RT are not the same and not easily interchangeable. "Poppycock", I was told. Given this issue, I might not rate him as favorably as others. Don't get me wrong on big Mike, I like him and have plenty of hope that he is going to play even better. Though not entirely behind his selection, I have often defended him here. I think they are spot-on when it comes to Freeney. In retrospect, he probably should have been the top pick in that draft or at least in the top 3 or 4. He is a rare talent, a solid individual and a real playmaker. At this level, there are not many guys so good that they force teams to change what they are doing. Freeney is that good in my opinion. He is on a pretty weak defense and yet still manages to stand out. Imagine how destructive he would be on a more balanced team. He reminds me a little of Bruce and LT. No offensive game plan can ignore him, they have to give him special attention. I think some of teams who passed him up wish they hadn't.
stuckincincy Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 It's an insider article so I'll paste in the first 15 picks. 377268[/snapback] Thanks - good info.
R. Rich Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 FWIW they rate Williams above McKinnie and Jones. I would place Shockey lower until he proves he can stay on the field. Thoughts? 377268[/snapback] Above McKinnie and Jones? Which Jones is that? I hope it's not Walter. That would be ridiculous. Unless your last name is Ogden and you start @ LT for the Ravens, you shouldn't be rated ahead of Walter Jones.
buffaloboyinATL Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Above McKinnie and Jones? Which Jones is that? I hope it's not Walter. That would be ridiculous. Unless your last name is Ogden and you start @ LT for the Ravens, you shouldn't be rated ahead of Walter Jones. 377334[/snapback] Levi Jones. Bengals OT.
erynthered Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Thanks - good info. 377292[/snapback] OH MAN!! nice avatar, Mr Subliminal.
Ramius Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Above McKinnie and Jones? Which Jones is that? I hope it's not Walter. That would be ridiculous. Unless your last name is Ogden and you start @ LT for the Ravens, you shouldn't be rated ahead of Walter Jones. 377334[/snapback] Rich, i think hes referring to LEVI Jones...because if hes got big mike over walter jones, then he needs to put the crack pipedown... the only thing that i think about when i look back is how we could have had roy williams in our defensive secondary...sigh...
R. Rich Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Levi Jones. Bengals OT. 377341[/snapback] Rich, i think hes referring to LEVI Jones...because if hes got big mike over walter jones, then he needs to put the crack pipedown... the only thing that i think about when i look back is how we could have had roy williams in our defensive secondary...sigh... 377343[/snapback] That makes more sense. It's funny how Jones has actually become a pretty damn good LT, because people were blasting the Bengals for taking him so high in the draft, saying they wasted another high first rounder. Shows what the 'experts' know.
buffaloboyinATL Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 That makes more sense. It's funny how Jones has actually become a pretty damn good LT, because people were blasting the Bengals for taking him so high in the draft, saying they wasted another high first rounder. Shows what the 'experts' know. 377347[/snapback] I agree. They caught a lot of criticism for that pick and it seems to have been ok for them.
stuckincincy Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 OH MAN!! nice avatar, Mr Subliminal. 377342[/snapback] I can rotate it 90 degrees to give it this weekend's "Florida" touch, if you like.
stuckincincy Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 I agree. They caught a lot of criticism for that pick and it seems to have been ok for them. 377350[/snapback] I was a critic - they had absolutely nothing at CB and passed on Philip Buchanon. But after WMG, JP, and Roscoe, I am now a stoic...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 It's hard to argue with most of these assessments. I would point out that McKinnie hasn't really had three years since his first was a bust. There is probably more reason to think he has not yet peaked as compared to Williams and Jones who likely are playing as good as they are ever going to. Another thing to consider when it comes to big Mike, I would think that drafting him as high as we did, it was thought that he would ultimately be playing LT, not RT. Certainly, the many debates we had on the board with regard to who we should take that year often revolved around that issue. My recollection is that most took it as a given that he was eventually going to be moved to LT. Either he hasn't played well enough for that to happen or it was never really the plan to begin with. If that is the case, we either drafted him too high for a guy slated to play RT or we drafted him too high given his inability to improve enough to play LT as was planned. At the time, I was not very high on him because he hadn't played on the left side. Those who disagreed pointed out that he only played on the right in college because their QB was a lefty. I believed then and believe now that the skill sets needed at LT and RT are not the same and not easily interchangeable. "Poppycock", I was told. Given this issue, I might not rate him as favorably as others. Don't get me wrong on big Mike, I like him and have plenty of hope that he is going to play even better. Though not entirely behind his selection, I have often defended him here. I think they are spot-on when it comes to Freeney. In retrospect, he probably should have been the top pick in that draft or at least in the top 3 or 4. He is a rare talent, a solid individual and a real playmaker. At this level, there are not many guys so good that they force teams to change what they are doing. Freeney is that good in my opinion. He is on a pretty weak defense and yet still manages to stand out. Imagine how destructive he would be on a more balanced team. He reminds me a little of Bruce and LT. No offensive game plan can ignore him, they have to give him special attention. I think some of teams who passed him up wish they hadn't. 377289[/snapback] This also strikes me as a pretty accurate assessment of the players chosen. I do have some differences though with your interpretation of the assessment or of initial assessment of MW. First, I would choose your option that MW has simply not player well enough to shift him to LT. However, I think it is still too early to declare the possibility of moving him to be over. While I agress that playing the right side and playing the left side are not interchangeable it certainly can and has been done. Two issues are that the left side involves more responsibility as you are guarding the QB blindside, but there I have confidence in MW doing this because he did this well in college for a lefthander as folks point out. The second issue is the question as he will need to switch his technique as opposing rusher will now be coming over his other shoulder and if habitually he is used to applying his steength and reading and making movesfor people coming the other way this can make a marginal difference which can be significant. Assessing whether he can make that shift needs to take into acoount his performance as a player: Year 1: Good start and good protection as he immediately earned a starting role and the OL was productive as his RBs and his QB all had productive years behind his and other blockers work. i do not remember him getting beaten a lot (as often happens with rookies and even players like Schobel who is at best is very solid can beat a better player from time to time as he did with the top-notch Ogden last year). I think that he did well enough as he had things to learn about what it is like to simply play above college level and having Vinky be his position coach and having Sullivan as the RG gave him tachers who could teach him the basics though neither could teach him the fine points. Second Year- MW began to hit the wall in teaching as the not ready for primetime Ruel took over for Vinky and his one year of experience as an OL position coach with the Lions allowed him to offer little in advanced teaching to MW. Even worse, though MW would have really profited from having at least an equal to work with at RG, he was working with Pacillo as his partner who needed an experienced vet at RT next to him even more than MW could have used having a more experienced player at RG It actually speaks highly of TH's work that the team produced as much as it did in terms of running yardage and it was not surprising at all that too often the less than mobile Bledsoe got sacked with MW and Pacillo standing over his prone form with obvious "I though you had him" body language regarding the sacker who was now dancing with joy. Third year- MW really melted down as he reacted unprofessionally to the death of his Grammy who raised him (understandable but not condoneable as a fan). However, the great sign was that we saw MW show every sign of tremendous improvement now that he had an adult working with him (JMac) and an experienced player (Villarial) next to him. He dealt with the tough love which JMac publicly demonstrated (the threat to move him to guard which seemed to be taken seriously by MW who got buay cutting weight an learning the game and ICE who falsely claimed that G was the obvious place for MW because of his size though MW had shown no signs in his two years of a lack of agility that saw him victimized by outside or edge rushers due to his size) by training so hard to cut weight he hurt his foot. However, he even played and trained through this setback and produced the achievements of: 1. Being rewarded with a gameball midway through the season for an outstanding blocking effort- this reward is somewhat subjective testimony to his quality of play but is most likely real testimony to his diligence in turning things around. The team in essence accepted his apology for letting them, the fans and himself down with his pre-season meltdown. 2, Outside pundits and fans remarked on his work and their observation of his blocking work- again this is more subjective than objective as pundits and fans can often be wrong, but given his troubles this is the subjective juedgment you want to have happen. 3. A more objective sign was that WM produced a bunch of yards behind MW and the OL and that Bledsoe's sack numbers were cut in half. It is true that a big part of this was changes in the offensive approach as the greater use of Bledsoe as a runner as he was not going to break a QB draw but blitzers needed to stay back and not commit totally to the blitz due to this possibility, the increased use of flea-flickers and trick plays which also created a moment of blitzer hesitation and the increased outside running threat of WM over TH all contributed along with better blocking by MW and the OL to the objective indicator of reduced sacks. The bottomline is that MW had the year in his 3rd year he should have had in his second if GW had been striong enough to hire and then replace his OL coach with a competent person. This year will be an interesting one for MW. I think if things had gone according to plan and MW had produced like last year in his lost year of 2003, then the Bills comfortably could have flipped him to LT this year to take over for JJ who got far more than the Bills should have paid for him from SF. Instead, not only did MW lose a year of development, but actually took a step backward because of the unexpected meltdown and the uncertainty created by him needing to flip sides. It will be a jump but it could well happen that 2005 will see MW become the player we wanted him to be and gain reknown for pancaking a few opponents. If so he can comfortably be experimented with and challenged to flip sides next year and we will need to make the cheaper easier buy or move of finding an RT. Overall, there is hope and though the TD plan did not work perfectly in terms of making the segue from JJ to MW, I think based on this assessment he deserves kudos for making the right choice between MW and McKinnie and also of Levi Jones who are ranked by these outside observers as lesser talents than MW. McKinnie did lose a half or full season of development compared to MW, but this loss was his own doing due to his holdout and it seems to be unreasonable to predict greatness for him while he has some clear attitude negatives while MW has demonstrated a positive attitude now with reports he has trimmed down and worked out this off-season. TD might be reasonably questioned for not trading down because even if they are virtually guranteed blue chip talents (Peyton Manning who has never brought his team to an SB an an example of a great player who simply has never achieved the ultimate goal with is team and now commands so much money and cap room I will not be surprised if Indy never does achieve its goal of winning with him despite his great play) there is a clear question whether it is beneficial to have a draft pick so high he is slotted to get a team-breaking salary. the cap hit of $9+ million MW had (or even the "cheaper" $7.8 he now will get is far more money than his play deserves. However, the Bills had so undermanned the OL in the Butler era the pick of MW does make sense. Overall kudos to MW (finally) and kudos to TD (mostly for getting smarter and replacing the GW/Sheppard/Killdrive/Vinky/Ruel mistake with MM/TC/JMac combo) and I am pretty hopeful regarding our LT-OL future. However, getting to what I think is a hopeful future is going to be a tough slog this year as Gandy/Teague/Peters are going to have to be our answer at LT. I think Gandy is doable but doubtful. I have some security that Teague would be adequate at LT but the repercussions of this move as Tucker (potential injury) or Preston (rookie) would then need to step up at Cand cannot be counted upon so I hope we do not have to make this move and also despite the hype around Peters athleticism, I really do not see entrusting protection of JPs blindside to an an unproven player at LT no matter how athletic they are (not to mention why you want to eliminate him as a receiving threat by taking the ball out his hand at LT makes little sense to me if you judge him to be such a superior athlete. At any rate, sorry for the lack of cliffnotes but I am happy to use this opportunity to think outloud.
smokinandjokin Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Rich, i think hes referring to LEVI Jones...because if hes got big mike over walter jones, then he needs to put the crack pipedown... the only thing that i think about when i look back is how we could have had roy williams in our defensive secondary...sigh... 377343[/snapback] Yeah, it'd be nice to have Roy Williams in the strong safety spot, he definately lays the stick on people. You need a ballhawk back there with him though cause we saw last season how he can be torched in coverage. Are some big pops worthy of a few big plays by the offense? That's the tradeoff with RW. Wouldn't you prefer Ed Reed? I definately would.
IDBillzFan Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Someone needs to explain one thing to me, please. If it takes three years to accurately evaluate a draft, why are there so many people running around giving their opinions and ratings on a draft that ended 20 minutes before they began to opine?
R. Rich Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Yeah, it'd be nice to have Roy Williams in the strong safety spot, he definately lays the stick on people. You need a ballhawk back there with him though cause we saw last season how he can be torched in coverage. Are some big pops worthy of a few big plays by the offense? That's the tradeoff with RW. Wouldn't you prefer Ed Reed? I definately would. 377392[/snapback] Yep. Williams is great near the line of scrimmage, like Carolina's first round pick Thomas Davis, but struggles in any type of coverage. Reed is a fantastic playmaker and can be counted on in run support also. And, to think: he wanted to be drafted by the Pittsburgh Steelers. What if they did land Reed and later added Polamalu? Wow.
R. Rich Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Someone needs to explain one thing to me, please. If it takes three years to accurately evaluate a draft, why are there so many people running around giving their opinions and ratings on a draft that ended 20 minutes before they began to opine? 377407[/snapback] I do it because I am very into the NFL draft. Aside from the season, it's the best thing out there.
obie_wan Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 It's hard to argue with most of these assessments. I would point out that McKinnie hasn't really had three years since his first was a bust. There is probably more reason to think he has not yet peaked as compared to Williams and Jones who likely are playing as good as they are ever going to. Another thing to consider when it comes to big Mike, I would think that drafting him as high as we did, it was thought that he would ultimately be playing LT, not RT. Certainly, the many debates we had on the board with regard to who we should take that year often revolved around that issue. My recollection is that most took it as a given that he was eventually going to be moved to LT. Either he hasn't played well enough for that to happen or it was never really the plan to begin with. If that is the case, we either drafted him too high for a guy slated to play RT or we drafted him too high given his inability to improve enough to play LT as was planned. At the time, I was not very high on him because he hadn't played on the left side. Those who disagreed pointed out that he only played on the right in college because their QB was a lefty. I believed then and believe now that the skill sets needed at LT and RT are not the same and not easily interchangeable. "Poppycock", I was told. Given this issue, I might not rate him as favorably as others. Don't get me wrong on big Mike, I like him and have plenty of hope that he is going to play even better. Though not entirely behind his selection, I have often defended him here. I think they are spot-on when it comes to Freeney. In retrospect, he probably should have been the top pick in that draft or at least in the top 3 or 4. He is a rare talent, a solid individual and a real playmaker. At this level, there are not many guys so good that they force teams to change what they are doing. Freeney is that good in my opinion. He is on a pretty weak defense and yet still manages to stand out. Imagine how destructive he would be on a more balanced team. He reminds me a little of Bruce and LT. No offensive game plan can ignore him, they have to give him special attention. I think some of teams who passed him up wish they hadn't. 377289[/snapback] not mention the Colts picked up about 10 spots higher than the experts projected
Mickey Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 This also strikes me as a pretty accurate assessment of the players chosen. I do have some differences though with your interpretation of the assessment or of initial assessment of MW. First, I would choose your option that MW has simply not player well enough to shift him to LT. However, I think it is still too early to declare the possibility of moving him to be over. While I agress that playing the right side and playing the left side are not interchangeable it certainly can and has been done. Two issues are that the left side involves more responsibility as you are guarding the QB blindside, but there I have confidence in MW doing this because he did this well in college for a lefthander as folks point out. The second issue is the question as he will need to switch his technique as opposing rusher will now be coming over his other shoulder and if habitually he is used to applying his steength and reading and making movesfor people coming the other way this can make a marginal difference which can be significant. Assessing whether he can make that shift needs to take into acoount his performance as a player: Year 1: Good start and good protection as he immediately earned a starting role and the OL was productive as his RBs and his QB all had productive years behind his and other blockers work. i do not remember him getting beaten a lot (as often happens with rookies and even players like Schobel who is at best is very solid can beat a better player from time to time as he did with the top-notch Ogden last year). I think that he did well enough as he had things to learn about what it is like to simply play above college level and having Vinky be his position coach and having Sullivan as the RG gave him tachers who could teach him the basics though neither could teach him the fine points. Second Year- MW began to hit the wall in teaching as the not ready for primetime Ruel took over for Vinky and his one year of experience as an OL position coach with the Lions allowed him to offer little in advanced teaching to MW. Even worse, though MW would have really profited from having at least an equal to work with at RG, he was working with Pacillo as his partner who needed an experienced vet at RT next to him even more than MW could have used having a more experienced player at RG It actually speaks highly of TH's work that the team produced as much as it did in terms of running yardage and it was not surprising at all that too often the less than mobile Bledsoe got sacked with MW and Pacillo standing over his prone form with obvious "I though you had him" body language regarding the sacker who was now dancing with joy. Third year- MW really melted down as he reacted unprofessionally to the death of his Grammy who raised him (understandable but not condoneable as a fan). However, the great sign was that we saw MW show every sign of tremendous improvement now that he had an adult working with him (JMac) and an experienced player (Villarial) next to him. He dealt with the tough love which JMac publicly demonstrated (the threat to move him to guard which seemed to be taken seriously by MW who got buay cutting weight an learning the game and ICE who falsely claimed that G was the obvious place for MW because of his size though MW had shown no signs in his two years of a lack of agility that saw him victimized by outside or edge rushers due to his size) by training so hard to cut weight he hurt his foot. However, he even played and trained through this setback and produced the achievements of: 1. Being rewarded with a gameball midway through the season for an outstanding blocking effort- this reward is somewhat subjective testimony to his quality of play but is most likely real testimony to his diligence in turning things around. The team in essence accepted his apology for letting them, the fans and himself down with his pre-season meltdown. 2, Outside pundits and fans remarked on his work and their observation of his blocking work- again this is more subjective than objective as pundits and fans can often be wrong, but given his troubles this is the subjective juedgment you want to have happen. 3. A more objective sign was that WM produced a bunch of yards behind MW and the OL and that Bledsoe's sack numbers were cut in half. It is true that a big part of this was changes in the offensive approach as the greater use of Bledsoe as a runner as he was not going to break a QB draw but blitzers needed to stay back and not commit totally to the blitz due to this possibility, the increased use of flea-flickers and trick plays which also created a moment of blitzer hesitation and the increased outside running threat of WM over TH all contributed along with better blocking by MW and the OL to the objective indicator of reduced sacks. The bottomline is that MW had the year in his 3rd year he should have had in his second if GW had been striong enough to hire and then replace his OL coach with a competent person. This year will be an interesting one for MW. I think if things had gone according to plan and MW had produced like last year in his lost year of 2003, then the Bills comfortably could have flipped him to LT this year to take over for JJ who got far more than the Bills should have paid for him from SF. Instead, not only did MW lose a year of development, but actually took a step backward because of the unexpected meltdown and the uncertainty created by him needing to flip sides. It will be a jump but it could well happen that 2005 will see MW become the player we wanted him to be and gain reknown for pancaking a few opponents. If so he can comfortably be experimented with and challenged to flip sides next year and we will need to make the cheaper easier buy or move of finding an RT. Overall, there is hope and though the TD plan did not work perfectly in terms of making the segue from JJ to MW, I think based on this assessment he deserves kudos for making the right choice between MW and McKinnie and also of Levi Jones who are ranked by these outside observers as lesser talents than MW. McKinnie did lose a half or full season of development compared to MW, but this loss was his own doing due to his holdout and it seems to be unreasonable to predict greatness for him while he has some clear attitude negatives while MW has demonstrated a positive attitude now with reports he has trimmed down and worked out this off-season. TD might be reasonably questioned for not trading down because even if they are virtually guranteed blue chip talents (Peyton Manning who has never brought his team to an SB an an example of a great player who simply has never achieved the ultimate goal with is team and now commands so much money and cap room I will not be surprised if Indy never does achieve its goal of winning with him despite his great play) there is a clear question whether it is beneficial to have a draft pick so high he is slotted to get a team-breaking salary. the cap hit of $9+ million MW had (or even the "cheaper" $7.8 he now will get is far more money than his play deserves. However, the Bills had so undermanned the OL in the Butler era the pick of MW does make sense. Overall kudos to MW (finally) and kudos to TD (mostly for getting smarter and replacing the GW/Sheppard/Killdrive/Vinky/Ruel mistake with MM/TC/JMac combo) and I am pretty hopeful regarding our LT-OL future. However, getting to what I think is a hopeful future is going to be a tough slog this year as Gandy/Teague/Peters are going to have to be our answer at LT. I think Gandy is doable but doubtful. I have some security that Teague would be adequate at LT but the repercussions of this move as Tucker (potential injury) or Preston (rookie) would then need to step up at Cand cannot be counted upon so I hope we do not have to make this move and also despite the hype around Peters athleticism, I really do not see entrusting protection of JPs blindside to an an unproven player at LT no matter how athletic they are (not to mention why you want to eliminate him as a receiving threat by taking the ball out his hand at LT makes little sense to me if you judge him to be such a superior athlete. At any rate, sorry for the lack of cliffnotes but I am happy to use this opportunity to think outloud. 377367[/snapback] Believe me, I am the last one to be critical of an over long post. I don't think big Mike has necessarily peaked yet but he has to carry some of the blame for not having done so. He showed up last year out of shape, skipped the OTA's and was an emotional basket case to boot. Given the millions he is getting paid and how high he was drafted, there is no excuse for that. If we are going to fault McKinnie for a business decision like holding out, certainly we can't give Mike a free pass for what he did last off season. I don't discount the possibility that Mike may be ready to play LT at some point but this assessment is being made now and right now, he apparently isn't good enough to play LT. The point of the article is to evaluate the draft picks made by teams that year three years down the road. On that basis, we drafted a RT too high or have selected a future LT who still can't play LT. Either way, one can conclude that Mike Williams has not been the player we thought we were getting. Maybe it will ultimately work out but I guarantee, if someone told TD that Williams would not be good enough to play LT until his 5th year, he would have drafted someone else. Maybe that is a good way to evaluate the pick, knowing what we know now, would you draft him that hightly all over again and pay him that kind of money? If you could trade Mike Williams for Dwight Freeney right now, would you?
stuckincincy Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 Believe me, I am the last one to be critical of an over long post. I don't think big Mike has necessarily peaked yet but he has to carry some of the blame for not having done so. He showed up last year out of shape, skipped the OTA's and was an emotional basket case to boot. Given the millions he is getting paid and how high he was drafted, there is no excuse for that. If we are going to fault McKinnie for a business decision like holding out, certainly we can't give Mike a free pass for what he did last off season. I don't discount the possibility that Mike may be ready to play LT at some point but this assessment is being made now and right now, he apparently isn't good enough to play LT. The point of the article is to evaluate the draft picks made by teams that year three years down the road. On that basis, we drafted a RT too high or have selected a future LT who still can't play LT. Either way, one can conclude that Mike Williams has not been the player we thought we were getting. Maybe it will ultimately work out but I guarantee, if someone told TD that Williams would not be good enough to play LT until his 5th year, he would have drafted someone else. Maybe that is a good way to evaluate the pick, knowing what we know now, would you draft him that hightly all over again and pay him that kind of money? If you could trade Mike Williams for Dwight Freeney right now, would you? 377522[/snapback] You and FFS owe me 1 mouse scroll wheel. I like most said "Freeney???? Are they nuts????
Kelly the Dog Posted July 8, 2005 Posted July 8, 2005 LT v. RT is an over-rated argument. First, it is almost entirely based on the fact that most quarterbacks are right-handed and they would not see the pass rushers coming behind them. While this is true, it virtually ignores a lot of other things. 1. Teams run 50% of the plays. They run far more to the right than the left. The RT position, therefore, is just as important to help teams on half the plays. If your best run blocker is on your left side, he is not helping you as much as he could be. 2. Most of the games best DE's lately have been split between LDE and RDE, it seems to me. I did a little season review last year and Mike Williams as a RT had far tougher assignments on a week to week basis as Bryant McKinnie did. I would want my best blocker on the other team's best DE. 3. I have been watching pro football for 30+ years very closely. Frankly, I see no difference in quarterbacks getting hurt whether they are blasted from in front or from behind. It always LOOKS bad when they are smacked from behind in the back when they didnt see it coming. But they almost always get up from those hits. I havent ever seen any stats or articles that prove that your QB is more likely to be hurt by a LDE or blitzer from the left, versus a RDE or blitzer from the right. 4. Granted, the chances for fumbles, and interceptions, and sacks, SEEMS to be more likely when a player gets whacked from behind, or his arm is smacked from behind when he is about to throw which causes an errant throw or turnover. That is the one clear incident your LT is more important. That said, watching Drew the last few years, he has fumbled, been sacked, or thrown INTs just as much from defenders in front of him as ones from behind. 5. The right handed quarterback theory also emits the fact that right handers roll to the right far more often. So you would want your better blocker on the right in those situations, also, versus the LT. Based on these and other smaller points, I think an RT is just as important as a LT in today's game.
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