Carson Palmer=J.P. Losman?

[WillyTK783]

Carson Palmer's stats looked like this last year:

 

-- PASSING -- -- RUSHING --

YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD

2004 263 432 2897 60.9 6.71 76 18 18 25.0 77.3 18 47 2.6 14 1

 

If Losman's stats look like this should we:

A.) Be surprised?

B.) Be Happy?

C.) Be disapointed?

and will these stats get us

A.) into the playoffs?

B.) Enough if we get 1000yds.+ out of McGahee?

C.) Not enough to get us into the playoffs?

D.) Enough to forget about Bledsoe?

 

I use Palmer as a comparison because he sat his rookie year, played in an offense with a decent but not great O-Line and has a dependable running back and wr corps. I feel like our Running back and WR corps are better than Cincinatti's, and JP is a lot faster than Palmer. Considering that, I feel like if JP can at least eclipse these numbers with better rushing stats, the Bills, barring major injuries or drop off from last year's defensive performance, should without question be a playoff team.

 

How does everyone feel about this comparison model?

[MrLocke]

Carson Palmer's stats looked like this last year:

 

          -- PASSING --                                                      -- RUSHING --

YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA  LNG TD INT SACK RAT  ATT YDS AVG LNG TD

2004 263  432 2897 60.9  6.71 76  18  18  25.0  77.3 18    47  2.6  14    1

 

If Losman's stats look like this should we:

A.) Be surprised?

B.) Be Happy?

C.) Be disapointed?

and will these stats get us

A.) into the playoffs?

B.) Enough if we get 1000yds.+ out of McGahee?

C.) Not enough to get us into the playoffs?

D.) Enough to forget about Bledsoe?

 

I use Palmer as a comparison because he sat his rookie year, played in an offense with a decent but not great O-Line and has a dependable running back and wr corps.  I feel like our Running back and WR corps are better than Cincinatti's, and JP is a lot faster than Palmer.  Considering that, I feel like if JP can at least eclipse these numbers with better rushing stats, the Bills, barring major injuries or drop off from last year's defensive performance, should without question be a playoff team.

 

How does everyone feel about this comparison model?

375239[/snapback]

 

I was thinknig about this comparisson recently myself. The biggest reason I think this might be a bad analogy is I think Buffalo's defense has it all over cincinatti's defense. I think then that Losman will not have to do as much for the team to be successsful as Palmer would have to for the Bengals to be succesful. Buffalo had the #2 defense last year and best special teams where as 372 points on defense last season. I think Cincinatti's skill position players maybe better, though.

 

Chad Johnson vs Moulds- I give the nod to Johnson.

Tj Houshmandzadeh vs Lee Evans- Again I give the nod the Bengals player.

Rudi Johnson Vs Willis- I think Willis will be better in the long term, but Rudi Johnson is more prooven.

Matt Schobel/Reggie Kelly vs Mark Campbell/Tim Euhus. Not much to split here.

Buffalo o-line vs. Cinci o-line- IMO Cincinatti has one of the best sets of book-end tackles in the game with Levi Jones and Willie Anderson I do not know about the interior o-line of Cincinatti. For the Bills, well we got McNally 'nuf said.

 

All in all I think JP is in a better situation as I think the difference between Buffalo's defense and special teams and cincinatti's defense and special teams is greater than the difference Cincinattis o-line and skill position players than Buffalo's skill position players and o-line.

[Realist]

If you're looking at just stats, yeah, I'd be happy with that. But as far as team record goes, if he had those stats, the record should be a lot better than the Bengals. Considering how good the Bills Defense and Special Teams are in comparison with Cinci's, I would expect a much better record. And that should easily get us into the playoffs.

 

All of the "professionals" like to compare JP's first year of starting with Palmer's but what they forget is the other two parts of the team. So as they say anywhere from 5 to 8 wins, I would expect more like 8-11 wins.

[finknottle]

Another curious coincidence:

 

Dumping an established back for a new one.

 

Not that it's not a no-brainer or anything, but in both cases it's been accompanied by a bit of turmoil at the position by the former starter.

[ganesh]

I think Palmer did not have the same strong D/ST that we have to help JP.

 

If the D and ST can win a few games for us, then that we can get to 10-6

with that kind of stats for your starting QB.

 

Note: Check out big bens stats...I think they are pretty much in the

same level (except may be a higher % of completions)

[marck]

If J.P. were to post statistics similar to what Carson Palmer put up in Cincinnati the Bills will be an 8-8 or 7-9 football team. The reson I say this is because from a purely statistical comparison Drew Bledsoe did have better numbers then those generated by Palmer. Remember Drew had 20 TD's and 16 picks.

 

The more realistic comparison is to compare against Roethlisbergers stat line which is 2621 yards passing in 14 games with a completion percentage of 66% and a 17-11 TD/INT ratio.

 

The Bills defense and special teams are far superior to what Cincinnati fielded last year and I believe that J.P. will have a stats profile more like Big Ben and that should be good enough to get the Bills to at least 10 wins.

[stuckincincy]

Buffalo o-line vs. Cinci o-line- IMO Cincinatti has one of the best sets of book-end tackles in the game with Levi Jones and Willie Anderson I do not know about the interior o-line of Cincinatti. For the Bills, well we got McNally 'nuf said.

 

375248[/snapback]

 

The interior OL seems to be in good shape, with starters LG Eric Steinback, C Rich Brabham, and RG Bobbie Williams. On the bench, they have the vet Larry Moore, Scott Kooistra, 2nd-year player Stacey Andrews (Shawn's brother - he's a project), and drafted C Eric Ghiaciuc and T Adam Keift both of Central Michigan in the 4th and 5th. They also signed the injured UDFA C Ben Wilkerson, LSU. If he can regain health and his college form, it would be quite a bonus.

[R. Rich]

The interior OL seems to be in good shape, with starters LG Eric Steinback, C Rich Brabham, and RG Bobbie Williams.  On the bench, they have the vet Larry Moore, Scott Kooistra, 2nd-year player Stacey Andrews (Shawn's brother - he's a project), and drafted C Eric Ghiaciuc and T Adam Keift both of Central Michigan in the 4th and 5th. They also signed the injured UDFA C Ben Wilkerson, LSU. If he can regain health and his college form, it would be quite a bonus.

375513[/snapback]

 

Williams is a decent run blocker to be sure, but is a liability in pass protection. Andrews could push him for playing time, though he's nowhere near as good as Shawn is (I'm looking forward to seeing how well Shawn recovers from his injury from last year's opener). Ghiaciuc is still a bit weak to push Braham for the starter's job, and that's too bad because that's where the Bengals line needs an upgrade-the center position.

[stuckincincy]

Williams is a decent run blocker to be sure, but is a liability in pass protection.  Andrews could push him for playing time, though he's nowhere near as good as Shawn is (I'm looking forward to seeing how well Shawn recovers from his injury rom last year's opener).  Ghiaciuc is still a bit weak to push Braham for the starter's job, and that's too bad because that's where the Bengals line needs an upgrade-the center position.

375525[/snapback]

 

I think Brabham is a bit underrated. I'm a little surprised that he's returned for another year after last year's injuries. But you are right - they do look for that upgrade.

 

Andrews is definetly a project - he was coaxed into playing football his senior year - hard to believe it, but he was a solid track and field athlete at Ole' Miss.

[MrLocke]

I think Brabham is a bit underrated. I'm a little surprised that he's returned for another year after last year's injuries. But you are right - they do look for that upgrade.

 

Andrews is definetly a project - he was coaxed into playing football his senior year - hard to believe it, but he was a solid track and field athlete at Ole' Miss.

375533[/snapback]

 

I forgot about Steinbach. He was one of the players I thought Buffalo maybe should have selected instead of Willis. I'm more happy with Willis now, though. Steinbach seemed like one of those rare gaurds to come along who was worthy of a high pick.

[pkwwjd]

Another curious coincidence:

 

Dumping an established back for a new one.

 

Not that it's not a no-brainer or anything, but in both cases it's been accompanied by a bit of turmoil at the position by the former starter.

375267[/snapback]

 

dumping a former franchise QB who had slipped in recent years and is sent packing, taking swipes at the team's decision

 

vs.

 

relegating the current starting QB who has never been better than average who quietly accepts the backup role and is ready to come off the bench

 

 

Not really similar situations ...

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

A comparison to Palmers numbers are interesting

 

 

-- PASSING -- -- RUSHING --

YEAR CMP ATT YDS CMP% YPA LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD

2004 263 432 2897 60.9 6.71 76 18 18 25.0 77.3 18 47 2.6 14 1

 

but the real deal is going to comparing JP's stats to

 

GMs ATT CMP % YDS YPA /GM TD TD% INT INT% SACKS RAT

 

16 450 256 56.9 2932 6.5 183.3 20 4.4 16 3.6 38 76.6

 

which were Bledsoe's numbers with a quite similar team. If JP does better than this statistically the move will be generally viewed as an upgrade and if he does worse than this the emphasis will be on his growing pains.

 

The actual stat which will really determine how people feel about this move will actually not be this line but whether the W/L for the team gets better or worse. This of course will be far more determined by differences in competition, how the oddly shaped ball bounces at particular times, what the result of the refs blowing the coin flip end up being and how the D and ST do as many have pointed out.

 

Overall, i think that JPs success or failure this year as a QB will really be determined by how much MM and TC demand that he do, If the run and call the games emphasizing that JP not be asked to carry the team as Drew was and proved to be incapable of doing, I think he will do well.

 

WM, Moulds, and the OL will need to carry the day for our O and results are going to depend much more on how the D performs under Gray's guidance and D captain Fletcher's leadership and how the ST performs under April's guidance and Lindell, Moorman, and the return guys leadership than what JP does.

 

Bledsoe proved to be incapable of providing the effective O leadership we needed with his shortcomings (though ironically he was a far more effective performer and producer in 2004 than in 2003) and I really doubt the young Losman who will still be learning to be a vet will be able to overcome this shortcoming if the coaches and team demand he do things he in unable to do at this point.

[finknottle]

dumping a former franchise QB who had slipped in recent years and is sent packing, taking swipes at the team's decision

 

vs.

 

relegating the current starting QB who has never been better than average who quietly accepts the backup role and is ready to come off the bench

Not really similar situations ...

375599[/snapback]

 

Sorry, I meant the runningbacks. Both teams had established runningbacks (TH and Corey Dillon) being pushed by promising youngsters (WM and Rudi Johnson) who started mid-season due to a convenient 'injury' occuring at a time when the starters play was being questioned, and who was unhappy when not handed the job back. Both teams tried for a trade, with the Bengals getting their late second in April. The Bills asking price in April was also a second.

 

Not trying to read anything into it, just thought it was an interesting parallel.

[John from Riverside]

The thing to me is that Cinci didn't have the majority of its problems on offense....they were actually pretty good there......

 

If our Offense could match Cinci's in production.....and our defense ans ST's play the same as last year.....

 

We make the playoffs.....

[stuckincincy]

The thing to me is that Cinci didn't have the majority of its problems on offense....they were actually pretty good there......

 

If our Offense could match Cinci's in production.....and our defense ans ST's play the same as last year.....

 

We make the playoffs.....

376049[/snapback]

 

If JP proves adept at the quick short passing game, things may go well. Plus, Holcomb is capable.