What positions we prioritize in the draft: Part 2

[Mikie2times]

 

I did this pre draft and here is the post draft update:

 

I took Fitzgerald-Spielberger average pick value for trade purposes (1st pick is worth 3000, 2nd 2649) all the way to the end of the draft. I then evaluated by position how much each team spent as a % of the total pick value they were allotted since 2018. While not perfect, I'm attempting to get some statistical way to represent what we have spent at each position in draft capitol in relation to other teams. Again, this is as a % of that teams total capitol, so it's looking more for how you spent what you had, not how much did you have.  

 

These are the rankings by position with the heat graph below. 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 04:19 AM by Mikie2times

[LEBills]

3 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I did this pre draft and here is the post draft update:

 

I took Fitzgerald-Spielberger average pick value for trade purposes (1st pick is worth 3000, 2nd 2649) all the way to the end of the draft. I then evaluated by position how much each team spent as a % of the total pick value they were allotted since 2018. While not perfect, I'm attempting to get some statistical way to represent what we have spent at each position in draft capitol in relation to other teams. 

 

These are the rankings by position with the heat graph below. 

 

 

 

 

Buffalo plus called the D-line Beane’s Waterloo. Either he will figure it out and we will be world champs, or it will be his undoing. 

[Richard Noggin]

BUT DID YOU INCLUDE THE PICKS SPENT ON DIGGS

[Mikie2times]

One trend sort of stands out, allocation to WR/DL/DB as the 3 primary. Look at the leaderboards in that area. 

 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

BUT DID YOU INCLUDE THE PICKS SPENT ON DIGGS

If they did it would pry be about a 50/50 offense to defense split after this defensive heavy draft.  The fact that our o-line ranks 26th is a testament to the pro scouting department and Aaron Kromer for building a top five offensive line last year.  I wish I could play with the spreadsheet more but the draft capital spent on QB's seems to correlate with your team sucking. 

 

One obvious and not surprising trend is teams with above 10% invested in their QB are Bears, Patriots, Jets, Texans, Cardinals, and Browns.  One playoff team (Texans) and every other team below .500 last year.  Bears whiffed on Justin Fields.  Patriots whiffed on Mac Jones.  Jets whiffed on Zach Wilson.  Cardinals whiffed on the wrong Josh

 

Browns meanwhile managed to somehow let their franchise QB go prematurely (Baker) because they thought it was smart business to give a guy the highest guaranteed contract in NFL history with 23 sexual harassment allegations against him along with a plethora of picks.  They took a 3rd and a 5th round QB in this year's draft despite the 5th rounder being better than the third rounder, signed a QB we all know will be working at The Home Depot in five years in Kenny Picket, and signed up the old WWII veteran Joe Flacco.

Edited yesterday at 06:35 AM by Doc Brown

[Pete]

So according to that, Buffalo is 26th in terms of draft capital used on WR.  So this substantiates that Buffalo WR are among the worst 20% in NFL

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

BUT DID YOU INCLUDE THE PICKS SPENT ON DIGGS

 

 

And the third they spent on Amari?

[Pete]

1 minute ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

And the third they spent on Amari?

because we woefully neglected a speedy WR in previous drafts, and were desperate after Ravens thrashing

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

So according to that, Buffalo is 26th in terms of draft capital used on WR.  So this substantiates that Buffalo WR are among the worst 20% in NFL

 

 

It doesn't substantiate squat. It's related, but it's not like if you don't draft guys, there's no other way to get players, the draft is the only way.

 

How thrilled the Chiefs must be that they spent 

 

2018 6th on Tremon Smith

2019 2nd on Mecole Hardman

2021 5th on Cornell Power

2022 2nd on Skyy Moore

2023 2nd on Rashee Rice

2024 1st on Xavier Worthy

2025 4th on Jalen Royals

 

Look at the massive results they've reaped off all that WR effort!!

 

Maybe Royals will be sensational. Or not. Same with Worthy. Maybe. When on the field, Rice has looked good. But there's not a lot of production there. Their terrific QB, though, has made things work despite that. Which should sound familiar.

 

 

11 minutes ago, Pete said:

because we woefully neglected a speedy WR in previous drafts, and were desperate after Ravens thrashing

 

 

That could definitely be the reason. Or not. Maybe it was a good opportunity at the right price and the right time.

 

Point is, though, that Beane DID spend a third on a WR, Amari, and it's not counted in this method of looking at WR draft results. Nor is our using a 1st rounder on Stefon Diggs, again something that we did do despite it not showing up if you use the method for looking at draft results used in this thread.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 10:11 AM by Thurman#1

[Pete]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It doesn't substantiate squat. It's related, but it's not like if you don't draft guys, there's no other way to get players, the draft is the only way.

 

How thrilled the Chiefs must be that they spent 

 

2018 6th on Tremon Smith

2019 2nd on Mecole Hardman

2021 5th on Cornell Power

2022 2nd on Skyy Moore

2023 2nd on Rashee Rice

2024 1st on Xavier Worthy

2025 4th on Jalen Royals

 

Look at the massive results they've reaped off all that WR effort!!

 

Maybe Royals will be sensational. Or not. Same with Worthy. Maybe. When on the field, Rice has looked good. But there's not a lot of production there. Their terrific QB, though, has made things work despite that. Which should sound familiar.

 

 

 

 

That could definitely be the reason. Or not. Maybe it was a good opportunity at the right price and the right time.

 

Point is, though, that Beane DID spend a third on a WR, Amari, and it's not counted in this method of looking at WR draftefon results. Nor is our using a 1st rounder on Stefon Diggs, again something that we did do despite it not showing up if you use the method for looking at draft results used in this thread.

 

 

Emperor New Clothes.  October 15 we traded for Amari.  October 30 we scored 30 or more points for 8 straight weeks.  Thats how speed WR opened up our offense.  It seems perfectly obvious to me, and many.  But we receive much push back and vitriol for speaking the truth

[The Jokeman]

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It doesn't substantiate squat. It's related, but it's not like if you don't draft guys, there's no other way to get players, the draft is the only way.

 

How thrilled the Chiefs must be that they spent 

 

2018 6th on Tremon Smith

2019 2nd on Mecole Hardman

2021 5th on Cornell Power

2022 2nd on Skyy Moore

2023 2nd on Rashee Rice

2024 1st on Xavier Worthy

2025 4th on Jalen Royals

 

Look at the massive results they've reaped off all that WR effort!!

 

Maybe Royals will be sensational. Or not. Same with Worthy. Maybe. When on the field, Rice has looked good. But there's not a lot of production there. Their terrific QB, though, has made things work despite that. Which should sound familiar.

 

 

 

 

That could definitely be the reason. Or not. Maybe it was a good opportunity at the right price and the right time.

 

Point is, though, that Beane DID spend a third on a WR, Amari, and it's not counted in this method of looking at WR draft results. Nor is our using a 1st rounder on Stefon Diggs, again something that we did do despite it not showing up if you use the method for looking at draft results used in this thread.

 

 

You also forgot the 3rd and 6th the Chiefs gave up for Kadarius Toney. 

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

Emperor New Clothes.  October 15 we traded for Amari.  October 30 we scored 30 or more points for 8 straight weeks.  Thats how speed WR opened up our offense.  It seems perfectly obvious to me, and many.  But we receive much push back and vitriol for speaking the truth

Cooper is a speed receiver?

[oldmanfan]

11 minutes ago, MJS said:

Cooper is a speed receiver?

Of course he isn’t.  Pete is like a puppy with a chew toy.  He refuses to let go.  We had one of the best offenses in the league last year, but that doesn’t count because we didn’t draft a guy that can just run straight down the field.  Oh, and contributions from TEs and RBs and the impact of a running game don’t count either.

[Pete]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

Cooper is a speed receiver?

Ravens showed blueprint how to stymie Bills offense.  They dared Bills WR to beat them deep, press coverage, stacking the box.  They had zero respect for our WRs.   Texans and Jets followed blue print.  Again and again, zero respect for Bills WR, press and stack.  Bills offense sputtered.  In reaction, Beane was desperate for WR.  Amari got respect.  Safetys backed up.  Teams played more zone.  The middle of the field opened up.  James Cook had space to run in.  Josh had more time.  3 subpar Bills offense games in a row, trade for Amari, Bills set a record 8 straight weeks scoring 30 points or more.   We have lost Amari and Mack- and that has me very concerned

[oldmanfan]

7 minutes ago, Pete said:

Ravens showed blueprint how to stymie Bills offense.  They dared Bills WR to beat them deep, press coverage, stacking the box.  They had zero respect for our WRs.   Texans and Jets followed blue print.  Again and again, zero respect for Bills WR, press and stack.  Bills offense sputtered.  In reaction, Beane was desperate for WR.  Amari got respect.  Safetys backed up.  Teams played more zone.  The middle of the field opened up.  James Cook had space to run in.  Josh had more time.  3 subpar Bills offense games in a row, trade for Amari, Bills set a record 8 straight weeks scoring 30 points or more.   We have lost Amari and Mack- and that has me very concerned

A quick check shows Cooper had 8 games with us, with 20 receptions for 397 yards.  I think that’s easily replaceable.  Now, I know the subject of his injury will be brought up, but then again both Coleman and Samuel were injured and many are saying they are now busts.  Same with Kincaid.

 

Beane was right yesterday about how proficient the offense was last year.  Cooper is still out there; I read a rumor that he may no longer be interested in playing, but he’s still out there.  Frankly I’m more concerned with replacing Hollins, especially his attitude in the locker room.  Shavers will get that shot.  But again the guy at WR 5 won’t make or break the team.

 

I think everyone would love a guy like Chase at WR.  But that kind of guy was not in this draft anywhere, and certainly not on day 3.  Just try to relax.

[Mister Defense]

8 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I did this pre draft and here is the post draft update:

 

I took Fitzgerald-Spielberger average pick value for trade purposes (1st pick is worth 3000, 2nd 2649) all the way to the end of the draft. I then evaluated by position how much each team spent as a % of the total pick value they were allotted since 2018. While not perfect, I'm attempting to get some statistical way to represent what we have spent at each position in draft capitol in relation to other teams. Again, this is as a % of that teams total capitol, so it's looking more for how you spent what you had, not how much did you have.  

 

These are the rankings by position with the heat graph below. 

 

 

 

 

 

 I am surprised you put this out, after having read many of your comments in other threads, bashing the offense and the Bills and Beane's commitment to it so voraciously. So, thanks. Pretty brave.

 

As it shows the absurdity of  so much of the hate and bashing from that small but prolific group:

 

1.  The top ten teams which have, according to your own analysis, spent the most draft capital on offense since 2018 are:

 

#1 Chicago

New England

Titans

jets

Chargers

Houston

Raiders

Pittsburgh

Carolina

Denver

 

I think that is another example of how ridiculous, and non fact based, the argument is by those who are hating so much on Beane and the Bills. And their twisting of statistics, which makes it soo easy to refute what they say. Only one good offense in that entire bunch, Houston, and that for only 1 year actually.

 

If anyone wants us to join that high powered offense club, with a slew of the worst offenses in the NFL now, and in recent memory, go right ahead.  But my team will not join in. Thankfully. We heard our team's fearless leader mock those who want them to do this just yesterday.

 

 

2.  I, and all other Bills fans, will be happy that the Bills, in the bottom ten of your statistical analysis, are instead in the same club with:

 

San Francisco

Miami

Rams

Buffalo

Detroit

Eagles

Kansas City

Cleveland

Tampa

Dallas

 

This group, the Bills' group, instead includes some of the best offenses in the NFL and the three most recent Super Bowl winners. If I was looking forward to playing offense and waiting to be chosen in the school yard, I would cry (if I was 8 ) if I was chosen by almost any team in the first group, and be ecstatic if it was almost any of these teams,  

 

It would be interesting to continue the analysis--why did this not show what you thought it would likely show? Why did it actually show the opposite of that? As the best and worst offenses almost across the board are at the opposite ends of the spectrum of what you expected, and likely wanted to help support your argument. 

 

Thanks for the data,  and for the work involved.  Hopefully it changed your perspective, at least a little, showing the absurdity of one of the main arguments against Beane and the Bills' dedication to the offense.

 

It should confuse the bashers.

 

And shut up a bunch of them. Not.

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:19 PM by Mister Defense

[MJS]

19 minutes ago, Pete said:

Ravens showed blueprint how to stymie Bills offense.  They dared Bills WR to beat them deep, press coverage, stacking the box.  They had zero respect for our WRs.   Texans and Jets followed blue print.  Again and again, zero respect for Bills WR, press and stack.  Bills offense sputtered.  In reaction, Beane was desperate for WR.  Amari got respect.  Safetys backed up.  Teams played more zone.  The middle of the field opened up.  James Cook had space to run in.  Josh had more time.  3 subpar Bills offense games in a row, trade for Amari, Bills set a record 8 straight weeks scoring 30 points or more.   We have lost Amari and Mack- and that has me very concerned

Palmer is an excellent route runner and excellent against man coverage. He separates. Also, Cooper missed games with injury last year. The offense still performed well without him. Shakir was out against the Texans, and it was clear that HE was the one the offense couldn't operate without.

 

Are we really saying that a 4th or 5th round rookie WR is the difference between the Bills having a successful offense or not? I think they proved last year that they can make things work.

 

We do need investment at receiver, but the defense was far more urgent. You can't upgrade everywhere every offseason.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Palmer is an excellent route runner and excellent against man coverage. He separates. Also, Cooper missed games with injury last year. The offense still performed well without him. Shakir was out against the Texans, and it was clear that HE was the one the offense couldn't operate without.

 

Are we really saying that a 4th or 5th round rookie WR is the difference between the Bills having a successful offense or not? I think they proved last year that they can make things work.

 

We do need investment at receiver, but the defense was far more urgent. You can't upgrade everywhere every offseason.

People really are saying just that.  Odd, isn’t it?

[MJS]

5 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

 I am surprised you put this out, after having read many of your comments in other threads, bashing the offense and the Bills and Beane's commitment to it so voraciously. So, thanks. Pretty brave.

 

As it shows the absurdity of  so much of the hate and bashing from that small but prolific group:

 

1.  The top ten teams which have, according to your own analysis, spent the most draft capital on offense since 2018 are:

 

#1 Chicago

New England

Titans

jets

Chargers

Houston

Raiders

Pittsburgh

Carolina

Denver

 

I think that is another example of how ridiculous, and non fact based, the argument is by those who are hating so much on Beane and the Bills. And their twisting of statistics, which makes it soo easy to refute what they say. Only one good offense in that entire bunch, Houston, and that for only 1 year actually.

 

If anyone wants us to join that high powered offense club, with a slew of the worst offenses in the NFL now, and in recent memory, go right ahead.  But my team will not join in. Thankfully. We heard our team's fearless leader mock those who want them to do this just yesterday.

 

 

2.  I am, and all other Bills fans, will be happy that the Bills, in the bottom ten of your statistical analysis, are instead in the same club with:

 

San Francisco

Miami

Rams

Buffalo

Detroit

Eagles

Kansas City

Cleveland

Tampa

Dallas

 

This group, the Bills' group, instead includes some of the best offenses in the NFL and the three most recent Super Bowl winners. If I was looking forward to playing offense and waiting to be chosen in the school yard, I would cry (if I was 😎 if I was chosen by almost any team in the first group, and be ecstatic if it was almost any of these teams,  

 

It would be interesting to continue the analysis--why did this not show what you (and  I and most) thought it would likely show? Why did it actually show the opposite of that?, as the best and worst offenses almost across the board are at the opposite ends of the spectrum of what most would expect.

 

Thanks for the data,  and for the work involved.  Hopefully it changed your perspective, at least a little, showing the absurdity of one of the main arguments against Beane and the Bills' dedication to the offense.

 

It should confuse the bashers.

 

And shut a bunch of them. Not.

 

Teams draft according to need. They just do. It should be pretty obvious that the teams who draft a lot of offense are the ones who are weak there. Same with the defense. So, if a team isn't drafting a lot of one position, either they are good there or they don't see the value.

 

I agree with you for the most part. It seems there is an inverse correlation. For instance, the Bills have one of the best olines in the league and have for the past couple of years. Should they be drafting oline high? Obviously not. The Bills will plummet in OL draft capital rankings in this current stretch of years. This doesn't mean they don't value the offensive line.

[Mister Defense]

3 minutes ago, MJS said:

Teams draft according to need. They just do. It should be pretty obvious that the teams who draft a lot of offense are the ones who are weak there. Same with the defense. So, if a team isn't drafting a lot of one position, either they are good there or they don't see the value.

 

I agree with you for the most part. It seems there is an inverse correlation. For instance, the Bills have one of the best olines in the league and have for the past couple of years. Should they be drafting oline high? Obviously not. The Bills will plummet in OL draft capital rankings in this current stretch of years. This doesn't mean they don't value the offensive line.

 

Excellent, sharp and succinct analysis of this very interesting data he put together.  It makes me look forward to other analysis of this data, such as contrasting it with the defensive draft expenditures. Etcetera.