Brandon Beane on WGR

[HappyDays]

One point kind of lost in all this is that as much as Beane has put the spotlight on himself, this entire offseason also puts a spotlight on McDermott. Everyone agrees his defense has been our biggest problem in the postseason, and this regime has planted their flag that it is talent more than coaching that has been holding them back. Beane's offer to Brady this offseason was a WR3 and a blocking TE. His offer to McDermott was a CB1, three new EDGEs, three new DTs, and more secondary depth than we can even keep on the roster.

 

So despite my frustration with the continued underinvestment in WR, I'm at least glad that everyone is in agreement that the defense now has the necessary talent to perform at an above average level in the postseason. You can't give all of these resources to a defensive head coach and then come back later making excuses that the talent wasn't good enough. This has to be the year KC's offense doesn't walk all over us in January. I think a realistic standard should be keeping them below 24 points and they need to punt at least 4 times. Otherwise, what was the point of this offseason?

[eball]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

So despite my frustration with the continued underinvestment in WR, I'm at least glad that everyone is in agreement that the defense now has the necessary talent to perform at an above average level in the postseason. You can't give all of these resources to a defensive head coach and then come back later making excuses that the talent wasn't good enough. This has to be the year KC's offense doesn't walk all over us in January. I think a realistic standard should be keeping them below 24 points and they need to punt at least 4 times. Otherwise, what was the point of this offseason?

 

That's the plan, Stan.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

One point kind of lost in all this is that as much as Beane has put the spotlight on himself, this entire offseason also puts a spotlight on McDermott. Everyone agrees his defense has been our biggest problem in the postseason, and this regime has planted their flag that it is talent more than coaching that has been holding them back. Beane's offer to Brady this offseason was a WR3 and a blocking TE. His offer to McDermott was a CB1, three new EDGEs, three new DTs, and more secondary depth than we can even keep on the roster.

 

So despite my frustration with the continued underinvestment in WR, I'm at least glad that everyone is in agreement that the defense now has the necessary talent to perform at an above average level in the postseason. You can't give all of these resources to a defensive head coach and then come back later making excuses that the talent wasn't good enough. This has to be the year KC's offense doesn't walk all over us in January. I think a realistic standard should be keeping them below 24 points and they need to punt at least 4 times. Otherwise, what was the point of this offseason?

 

Yup.  It's pretty clear they attributed last season's outcome to the following issues, probably in this order:

 

1.   Lack of team speed on defense

 

2.  Inability to affect the other team's passing game

 

3.  Insufficient player development/strength and conditioning

 

4.  Special teams

 

They do not believe offense is/was the problem.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

No.. your not getting it..  Draft is still a coin flip in how good a WR is going to be.. By prioritizing a WR through FA.. your guaranteed to know the floor/ceiling. A QB has to be confident in his targets.. this literally spawns confidence knowing what you have. On WGR in this example.. they were complaining more about this last draft not getting a WR. You are giving them excuses by digging into History of drafts as to why we did or didn't get a WR that year.  

 

If we had moved up in round 1 to get a WR.. everyone would of been crying..  Round 2.. talent just was not there at WR position. so we filled other needs. 

 

Beane said it clear as day

 

"I get this argument last year but not now"  

 

I have not argued they should have drafted a receiver on day 1 or 2 of this past draft. Nor was that what Jeremy and Joe were arguing. Indeed go to the Landon Jackson draft thread from Friday night and you will find me arguing against the people angry it wasn't a receiver. 

 

My point is a much broader one that is not focussed on this past draft and for all Brandon's protestations I'm afraid the numbers do not support him. The Bills, relative to the average level in the NFL under invest in receivers come draft time. At the end of the day 1 receiver drafted in the first three rounds across EIGHT drafts. 40 total picks in rounds 1-5 as Bills GM, only 4 spent on receiver. 

 

And the argument against your "but vets give Josh more security" argument is mid level vets also require salary cap investment. Gabe Davis and Kahlil Shakir gave up mid level vet or better production for a fraction of the cost on rookie deals. 

[eball]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

 

Yup.  It's pretty clear they attributed last season's outcome to the following issues, probably in this order:

 

1.   Lack of team speed on defense

 

2.  Inability to affect the other team's passing game

 

3.  Insufficient player development/strength and conditioning

 

4.  Special teams

 

They do not believe offense is/was the problem.

 

I agree with all of this.  It's on McD and Babich (and the new ST coach) to change it.

 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, eball said:

 

That's the plan, Stan.

 

 

Honestly, good. I've been skeptical that throwing a ton of resources at the defense would really make a difference in the postseason. If nothing else I'm glad we're putting that theory to the test. It creates somewhat of an ultimatum for McDermott - if all of these talent and coaching additions aren't enough, nothing ever will be.

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

One point kind of lost in all this is that as much as Beane has put the spotlight on himself, this entire offseason also puts a spotlight on McDermott. Everyone agrees his defense has been our biggest problem in the postseason, and this regime has planted their flag that it is talent more than coaching that has been holding them back. Beane's offer to Brady this offseason was a WR3 and a blocking TE. His offer to McDermott was a CB1, three new EDGEs, three new DTs, and more secondary depth than we can even keep on the roster.

 

So despite my frustration with the continued underinvestment in WR, I'm at least glad that everyone is in agreement that the defense now has the necessary talent to perform at an above average level in the postseason. You can't give all of these resources to a defensive head coach and then come back later making excuses that the talent wasn't good enough. This has to be the year KC's offense doesn't walk all over us in January. I think a realistic standard should be keeping them below 24 points and they need to punt at least 4 times. Otherwise, what was the point of this offseason?

 

If these guys can all play that is definitely the case. The D needed an injection of younger talent, it got it. Now as long as these are not busts the defensive production simply has to be better than last year. 

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For the Bills, on defense, not so much. 

 

2024: 32 (3rd in the NFL)

2023: 30 (3rd in the NFL)

2022: 27 (4th in the NFL - despite playing one game fewer)

2021: 30 (3rd in the NFL)

- - - - years below are 16 game seasons - - - -

2020: 26 (3rd in NFL)

2019: 23 (10th in the NFL)

2018: 27 (8th in the NFL)

2017: 25 (9th in the NFL)

 

They have NEVER been outside the top 10 in takeaways under Sean McDermott. That is staggering consistency and says something about how well coached they are on that side of the ball. 

 

What was unusual about last season - and is unlikely to be repeated IMO - was their record low in giveaways. They have generally been around middle of the pack in terms of giveaways - averaging 20ish turnovers per year. Then last year suddenly they had a record low with 8 and when you couple that with their consistent ability to take the ball away on defense they suddenly rocketed to the top of turnover differential and that contributed to wins, without question. 

I appreciate what you're showing, but I'm not looking at total season stats.  Why- because I don't care that we forced 5 TOs against Washington a couple years ago...in a blowout win. 

 

On a week to week basis:

2024: 1 game with 0 turnovers forced- remarkable. Happened to lose to Rams that game. 3+ in game: 5x, 4+: 1x

 

2023: 

4 games without forcing a turnover: 2-1, barely beating the Gmen.  3+ in game: 4x, 4+:3x

 

2022: 

3 games without forcing a turnover: 2-1.  3+: 3x, 4+: 1x

 

Above is showing game to game volatility, that we were super proficient in 2024 in forcing 1+ per game.  2023 was outlier city, we had 3 games forcing 4 or more (which skewed our overall).

 

Agree with your point on offense, our most efficient season.  But we also changed O coordinators and that was a major coaching focus.  Just like defense where we're coached up, same as offense this year.  You think it was a coincidence that guys like Cook/skill players limited fumbles?  Or Josh threw fewer INTs?  These were all offseason areas of focus and Josh mentioned it numerous times during camp LY.

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If these guys can all play that is definitely the case. The D needed an injection of younger talent, it got it. Now as long as these are not busts the defensive production simply has to be better than last year. 

 

I think it just has to be the case regardless. I mean unless the worst case outcome happens to every single player we added, at a bare minimum we should be significantly more talented on defense than we were last year. We've built up enough depth that we can manage an injury or two to a starter if it comes to that. Unless our IR wire looks like the Lions last year the defensive coaches have to be able to make it work with this group.

 

The reason I said less than 24 points and forcing 4 punts is that is exactly what Cincy did to KC in their last AFCCG, a game that Cincy of course still lost but that defensive performance would have been enough for us to beat KC in our last three tries. Cincy did that while starting Eli Apple and Cam Taylor-Britt at CB, and only one pass rusher to write home about. So I think that is a very fair standard for our defense to meet.

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's about getting a WR with a specific necessary skill set. I didn't need the Bills to spend a top 100 pick on a WR from this class or multiple picks. I just wanted a WR that could play outside and get vertical, that's all. The role is so important they got rid of MVS so they could trade for Cooper last year. As of right now we don't even have an MVS on the roster, the role remains unfilled.

 

Also for a team with an "everybody eats" mentality the #5 WR is more important than it is for other teams. Yeah when your top 2 are Chase/Higgins or Hill/Waddle no one cares who your #5 is. But when your offense is built around WRs that are all complementary role players with specific skill sets, you better make sure all the skill sets are accounted for and every player has a way to contribute.

 

I don't know how anyone couldn't be concerned that we're going to see games like the Ravens and Texans last year where the offense was a slog because we had no way to threaten them downfield outside. We added Cooper and the lights clicked on. We at least need to get that baseline on the roster. I thought early day three was a great opportunity to do that in this class.

Palmer can get downfield, so can Keon for 50/50 throws - they're counting on both these guys.  Simple as that.  

 

Keon: 19.2 ypr, 15.2 adot

Palmer: 15.0 ypr, 15.2 adot

Cooper (just with Bills): 13.3 ypr, 12.6 adot

 

We have guys, people want to throw Keon under the bus and are discounting Palmer already for some reason.  Not to mention, Samuel never was fully utilized due to fighting thru injuries all season.

 

If we want to find a 3rd guy, Ok sure.  But keep in mind this offense is built around efficiency- great OL/run game, win on early downs, most importantly limit turnovers.  Josh as a cannon for an arm, but I wouldn't say his deep ball accuracy is top tier (maybe some stat will prove me wrong here). 

 

But the philosophy of the offense is what it is- which is dictating who we target as FAs/Draft. If you have any issue with that, then I'd say tough luck, because it's working.

[Process]

Bbb coming up on McAfee

[julian]

I agree with the overall critique of Beane’s seeming lack of willingness to emphasize WR in the draft since taking over.

 

 I just don’t think what he did this year is worthy of criticism when you consider the overwhelming needs on defense combined with the poor WR class in this years draft.

[MasterStrategist]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have not argued they should have drafted a receiver on day 1 or 2 of this past draft. Nor was that what Jeremy and Joe were arguing. Indeed go to the Landon Jackson draft thread from Friday night and you will find me arguing against the people angry it wasn't a receiver. 

 

My point is a much broader one that is not focussed on this past draft and for all Brandon's protestations I'm afraid the numbers do not support him. The Bills, relative to the average level in the NFL under invest in receivers come draft time. At the end of the day 1 receiver drafted in the first three rounds across EIGHT drafts. 40 total picks in rounds 1-5 as Bills GM, only 4 spent on receiver. 

 

And the argument against your "but vets give Josh more security" argument is mid level vets also require salary cap investment. Gabe Davis and Kahlil Shakir gave up mid level vet or better production for a fraction of the cost on rookie deals. 

At the end of the day, why is everyone care so much about WR?  It's about production.

 

Do we think this offense is being held back by lack of WR play?  If that's the discussion, I'd say no it's not.  To Beanes point, we are scoring amongst the best week in and week out.

 

Does it matter that we use our RBs and TEs, and spread the targets?  When we stop scoring, it's a problem.  

 

This is why Beane says F off, the offense is producing, the QB just won MVP, we have better weapons this year than last (simply by adding Palmer + player progression). 

 

Trying to say we aren't "keeping up with the Jones of the NFL" at WR, are exactly what Beane said: Madden/FF focused. 

 

Our team doesn't have a scoring problem, it's a defensive problem.  Trying to bring in a mid round WR target, isn't moving the needle this year (as much as you did your draft homework, you're still not a professional scout/GM)

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I appreciate what you're showing, but I'm not looking at total season stats.  Why- because I don't care that we forced 5 TOs against Washington a couple years ago...in a blowout win. 

 

On a week to week basis:

2024: 1 game with 0 turnovers forced- remarkable. Happened to lose to Rams that game. 3+ in game: 5x, 4+: 1x

 

2023: 

4 games without forcing a turnover: 2-1, barely beating the Gmen.  3+ in game: 4x, 4+:3x

 

2022: 

3 games without forcing a turnover: 2-1.  3+: 3x, 4+: 1x

 

Above is showing game to game volatility, that we were super proficient in 2024 in forcing 1+ per game.  2023 was outlier city, we had 3 games forcing 4 or more (which skewed our overall).

 

Agree with your point on offense, our most efficient season.  But we also changed O coordinators and that was a major coaching focus.  Just like defense where we're coached up, same as offense this year.  You think it was a coincidence that guys like Cook/skill players limited fumbles?  Or Josh threw fewer INTs?  These were all offseason areas of focus and Josh mentioned it numerous times during camp LY.

 

I take your point, but the Bills defense taking the ball away is something you can pretty much hang your hat on with this team. Will it always come at the most opportune moments? Maybe not. But their track record for having them in big moments is actually pretty decent. Two of their last three victories over the Chiefs for example have been sealed by game ending interceptions of Mahomes. The Miami must win game week 18 last year the same, the famous forced fumble a few years ago when the Cam Newton Patriots were threatening to shock us at home. Even going back to the Raiders and Buccs games in McDermott's first year we had critical turnovers right at the end. 

 

They being near the top of the league in defensive takeaways is a pretty safe bet. Them being at the top of turnover differential feels a much riskier proposition. 

4 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

At the end of the day, why is everyone care so much about WR?  It's about production.

 

Do we think this offense is being held back by lack of WR play?  If that's the discussion, I'd say no it's not. 

 

I'd say this is exactly the inverse of your point about defensive turnovers. They definitely were hurt by it in the loss to Baltimore when the Ravens said openly that their plan was to give the Bills the outside and force them to win out there and the next week in Houston when without Shakir Josh completed nine passes in 60 minutes of football. And in the AFCCG when they had the chance to go win the game and couldn't move the ball down the field. 

 

Is WR play stopping us being a division winner and a superbowl contender? Nope. Is it a factor that's stopping us getting over the top? Yep. Not the only one, sure. But it is one. 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The problem is he is ALWAYS engaged because he is a non-separator. 

This is a great point. 

He essentially always going to have to make a tough catch because he is rarely ever going to not have a guy on his hip.

[JimmyNoodles]

Beane

8 minutes ago, julian said:

I agree with the overall critique of Beane’s seeming lack of willingness to emphasize WR in the draft since taking over.

 

 I just don’t think what he did this year is worthy of criticism when you consider the overwhelming needs on defense combined with the poor WR class in this years draft.

He definitely did the right thing this year.  One critcism, however, is how the roster gets like this in the first place.  You really shouldn't have to go into a draft needing 3 DL and however many Dbs at this stage in the "process."  Just like we shouldn't STILL be searching for a speed wide-out.  However many excellent late round picks the Bills make, we have missed on many early round picks where the athletic talent is stronger and that takes a toll in the long run.  And just to preview the excuse for this year's failure, if there is one, it will be "We were too young on D!"     

[MasterStrategist]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I take your point, but the Bills defense taking the ball away is something you can pretty much hang your hat on with this team. Will it always come at the most opportune moments? Maybe not. But their track record for having them in big moments is actually pretty decent. Two of their last three victories over the Chiefs for example have been sealed by game ending interceptions of Mahomes. The Miami must win game week 18 last year the same, the famous forced fumble a few years ago when the Cam Newton Patriots were threatening to shock us at home. Even going back to the Raiders and Buccs games in McDermott's first year we had critical turnovers right at the end. 

 

They being near the top of the league in defensive takeaways is a pretty safe bet. Them being at the top of turnover differential feels a much riskier proposition. 

Yeah I get what your saying...but success isn't cumulative stats.

 

It's consistency week in and week out.  We did that in 2024 on both sides of the ball, and had tremendous success.  

 

Point being two fold:

1. Defense: we haven't been consistent in. years past, game to game.  And really stopping opponents and getting off the field on 3rd down is same as a turnover.  We were downright horrible at 3rd down defense- which goes to the larger picture, our defense wasn't getting enough "stops"

 

2. Offense: coaching improved the turnover efficiency, at least in my mind I think we can be within a similar range next season

 

 

All about getting off the field on defense- turnovers tell part of the story, but 3rd down defense is the key

[Utah John]

Several points.  First I posted a few days ago that Beane was relying on Josh, a great O line, and good RBs to make the offense productive.  This is exactly what he's been doing this offseason.  He's putting his money on a repeat performance, maybe with an upgrade with Palmer replacing Hollins although I really liked Hollins.  Everyone else on offense is a year better, also a year older but none of them are past their expiration dates.  

 

Second, the reason he had to make such a drastic haul of D players really comes down to past failures in drafting D linemen.  In general Beane has done a very good job but the return on investment from our D line players is not good.  A lot of the problem could come down to coaching and scheming, but except for Rousseau there isn't a lot of talent there.  Oliver is a pretty average player, not what they thought they'd get drafting at 8.  Epenesa is a JAG.  The moon shot getting Von Miller came about because the drafted players couldn't get to the passer, and it might have worked if his old knees hadn't broken down, but it ended up a terrible waste of cap space.  Now they're trying again with Bosa.  So here come a herd of large men, and McBeane are hoping a couple of them can really play.  

 

So, third, if the Bills had found their great D linemen already, there'd be more draft slots available for another WR.  But Beane isn't looking back, he's looking forward, with a clear evaluation of what's worked and what hasn't worked.  

[947]

Our Defense got utterly abused in 5 games last year (Ravens x2, Chiefs AFCCG, Rams, Lions), and got "pretty much" abused in another 4 games (Texan, at Jets, Miami at home, & Pats at home). That's half our season that our Defense was nearly useless. Teams could complete any short/intermediate they wanted on us, and we sat back let them. Thank god we didn't play Cincy, Burrow would've had 500 yards & 5 TDs. It took a historic Offense to overcome the D & make it as far as they did.

 

This offseason had to be like this. Defense was always going to be the major priority. I'm excited for all the Defensive additions & can't wait to see this year's iteration, and forget about last year's.

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Yeah I get what your saying...but success isn't cumulative stats.

 

It's consistency week in and week out.  We did that in 2024 on both sides of the ball, and had tremendous success.  

 

Point being two fold:

1. Defense: we haven't been consistent in. years past, game to game.  And really stopping opponents and getting off the field on 3rd down is same as a turnover.  We were downright horrible at 3rd down defense- which goes to the larger picture, our defense wasn't getting enough "stops"

 

2. Offense: coaching improved the turnover efficiency, at least in my mind I think we can be within a similar range next season

 

 

All about getting off the field on defense- turnovers tell part of the story, but 3rd down defense is the key

 

Nobody was arguing about 3rd down defense. That was horrific last year. The point was about turnovers having high varience. Well under Sean McDermott the Bills defense bucks that trend.