A potentially stupid theory on why the Bills seem less interested in downfield speed at WR

[Mr. WEO]

Need to open up the deep ball.  Cant throw a dozen 4 yard outs to Kincaid every game.

[Maine-iac]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

Need to open up the deep ball.  Cant throw a dozen 4 yard outs to Kincaid every game.

Tied for 6th in 20 yard passes and 5th in 40 yard passes.   Guess not every pass was a 4 yard out to Kincaid.

[buffblue]

45 minutes ago, sven233 said:

The benefits of a speed WR far outweigh the ability to hit on the long ball consistently.  It's about opening up other areas of the field.  Allen's best throws are not 60 yards down the field on go routes.  He also isn't the best thrower of the ball at the LOS or under 10 yards down the field.  Allen separates himself in the intermediate parts of the field.  His big plays come in chunks of 15-30 yards.  So just tell guys to get open in that range, right?  No....it's not that simple. 

 

Just look at what happened last year.  The first few games were great offensively.  "Everybody Eats" was brand new and we came out of the gates fast because teams didn't know what to expect.  But then we played a team with a real defense in Baltimore.  They had several games on film and figured out exactly what we were doing.  They realized that we had no threat down the field so what did they do.  They brought their safeties up closer to the LOS and played man coverage.  They basically said fine....we'll give you the deep shots all day and let's see if your WRs can beat us.  We couldn't and that in turn clogged the middle of the field and made it difficult to move the ball because they knew there wasn't a chance a WR was going to beat their CBs down the field.  Houston then did a lot of the same types of things.  That's when we knew we had to do something to try and stretch the field and went and got Cooper.  While he was a shell of his former self, he was still able to stretch the field deeper and make enough contested catches where things loosened up a bit again.

 

Say what you want about Allen's completion percentage down the field over 50 yards.  You know who else isn't accurate that far down the field?  Most every QB in the NFL including Mahomes.  He missed Worthy probably 10 times last season when he was open down the field.  But you know what?  He kept throwing it and teams HAD to respect it even if they weren't completed every time.  Having a guy that can scare the pants off a DC and force them to keep their safeties deep and over the top changes everything underneath in the intermediate parts of the field where our guy loves to live.

 

That said, my fear, and a lot of people's fear, is that the same thing that happened last year, happens this year.  We'll come out of the gate with a few good games on offense because there will be some new wrinkles and Palmer will be new and an unknown.  Then, teams will have 3-4 games on tape, see what we're going, and make the necessary adjustments.  If we aren't at least testing teams down the field consistently, and everything is within 20 yards of the LOS because we don't have anyone that can separate down the field again, we're going to be in the same spot we were last year when we had to get desperate and trade for Cooper.  That's why heading into this offseason getting a WR or even 2 with legit deep speed, explosion, and separation ability down the field was so important.  We had to force teams out of man coverage and back their safeties off.  We didn't do it.  In fact, while Beane has said we haven't regressed, I am not so sure of that.  We lost Hollins who had the most TDs in the passing game and we also lost Cooper who was the only one really winning at all down the field within the design of the play.  Most of the downfield stuff we did complete was backyard football stuff were Allen put the cape on.  I dare anyone to tell me how many balls over 30 yards were completed within the actual design and construction of the play.  I can almost guarantee you that you will be able to count them on 1 hand.....and you may not use all of your fingers.

 

Now, we did bring Palmer in and I actually think he will be pretty good for us.  I think, at minimum, he will be a slight upgrade to Hollins and should separate more than any other WR we have on this roster not named Shakir.  But is that enough to scare teams enough and force them to back off their safeties?  I am not so sure.  Allen is the best QB in the league in my opinion and he will mask a lot of shortcomings on this offense as he does every year.  Unfortunately, I just have a feeling that 4-5 weeks into the season we are going to be in need of that big play WR yet again and we'll have to hope Beane can find a better trade than Cooper this time.  One thing that could possibly help us out a lot is to use a ton more play action.  Many of you know how much I was clamoring for that every week last season and it never happened.  Allen is literally one of the best QBs in the league off play action and we call it like once or twice a game if we're lucky.  But that's a different conversation for a different day.  Ugh.....don't get me started on Brady's lack of play action calls.

Great post. You hit the nail on the head with the bolded part. It's more about having that threat available to you within the offense. Allen had a number of outstanding deep throws to well covered receivers last year despite his reputation on here of being a mediocre downfield passer. A recent example would be the long TD throw to Hollins right before halftime of the AFC championship. That pass was utterly perfect by Josh and had to be because there was no separation whatsoever. It is also kind of hilarious that a guy as great as Trent McDuffie would ever end up covering someone of Hollins' skill, but that is what Buffalo chooses to put on the field.

 

It would just be nice if we didn't force our all time great QB to have to play off schedule and thread needles in order for the offense to be productive against good teams. I don't think we are going to be quite as successful on offense this year as it stands either, for a variety of reasons. The turnovers are an obvious candidate for regression, but what about the health of the offensive line? The Bills were extremely fortunate to have such continuity among the starting five last year. If we run into problems on the line and have some protection issues, its going to magnify even further the inability of our receivers to separate quickly against decent defenses, just like in the Baltimore and Houston games.

 

It would be roster malpractice to carry this receiver room into the regular season. For those who say give it time and that there are still 4 months to go, I would remind you that Beane was more than happy to proceed with a similar group last year. At best I can see a reunion with Cooper which really doesn't move the needle. Every other top QB has a guy who can take the top off a defense other than Allen, and the neglect is getting old.

[Maine-iac]

3 minutes ago, buffblue said:

It would be roster malpractice to carry this receiver room into the regular season. For those who say give it time and that there are still 4 months to go, I would remind you that Beane was more than happy to proceed with a similar group last year. 

The results were devastating.  Record number of points.  Less sacks, less turnovers, more TD's on offense.  Clearly we've learned nothing from it.

[buffblue]

4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

The results were devastating.  Record number of points.  Less sacks, less turnovers, more TD's on offense.  Clearly we've learned nothing from it.

Did you even read anything I wrote? What a lazy response.

 

Yes, everything that happened last year is going to carry over exactly the same this year. No changes are needed because everything stays the same in the NFL year over year. They should probably just give us the Lombardi now.

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

Josh has improved on everything he has needed to up to this point.  Why can't he correct his deep ball is an interesting question. 

[cale]

1 hour ago, RobbRiddick said:

I have to say that had crossed my mind. I was wondering why they wouldn't go after a legit speedster and was thinking "Allen surely must have asked for one? And since he is the Bills franchise why wouldn't they do it?" All I could conclude was that Josh has said he prefers the gameplan the way it was this season (it got him an MVP so you can see why that would be the case).  

 

Maybe he doesn't even want the temptation of getting reckless and chucking deep instead of checking down. It's like how I prefer not to have candy in the house because I lack the discipline of not eating it all in one evening. It's all or nothing. I am the Josh Allen of calorie intake (although my wife is more Halley's Comet than Hailee Steinfeld)

 

 

Wanna hear my stupid theory? 
 

Cause it would amplify the mistake they made in not taking Worthy and going for someone who could “outmuscle the DB in the end zone” strategy.

 

Somebody forgot that in order for that to happen you need to get close to or in the end zone first.

 

i get the rationale here about what Josh can or can’t do. But I promise you…get a Worthy type in here and have them run routes in practice until the wheels come off. With this O line and that type WR - Watch how much better Josh gets and throwing the DEEP ball.

 

The Raiders were right. Speed kills…

[Not at the table Karlos]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I don't think this is a stupid theory at all.  We have seen many QBs throughout NFL history with cannons for arms who had no idea where the bomb was actually going (see Jeff George).   We have certainly seen Josh miss open receivers deep over the years. 

 

I'm going to add another factor.  What if the issue is less Josh and more the crazy wind conditions in Highmark Stadium?  For decades we have seen kickers and punters struggle with the wind conditions in Buffalo.  Is a 40 yard throw in the air any less likely to be affected by the wind than a 40 yard punt or 50 yard FG?

If he was throwing rainbows and they were getting blown off track you may be on to something but he’s not. He throws them low and hard. It’s very hard to be accurate on go routes the way he throws them. Even if he is accurate it’s tough to track and catch for the receiver because the ball is coming low and fast behind your head. If it’s not perfectly accurate it’s sailing over their head. He also has the problem on the road and in domes. So it’s not the wind. 

[Mr. WEO]

45 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Tied for 6th in 20 yard passes and 5th in 40 yard passes.   Guess not every pass was a 4 yard out to Kincaid.

 

I was using hyperbole.  You are quoting yards before and after catch.  

 

Yet Allen just put up his fewest YPG in the past 5 years and career lows in air yards per completion and air yards on completed passes per pass attempt.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

The 98 yard touchdown to Gabe Davis would like to enter the chat.

[WotAGuy]

Is it really that hard to get a fast guy to run a post and take a CB and S with him?  Then hit the open spot under. Even if the WR sucks, they still gotta cover him. 

[Don Otreply]

A vertical threat WR is fine, if that individual is not a total child that insists on getting an unreasonable number of targets every game, there in lies the rub, 

jmo. 

[mjt328]

What people often forget is that 90-95% of professional athletes are one-dimensional.

 

Wide Receivers are usually small and fast... OR... they are big and strong.  

Guys who are burners downfield often struggle with things like press coverage, blocking and contested catches.

Guys who are bigger struggle with separation and getting open quickly.

 

The extremely small percentage of players who are physically blessed with BOTH skills are drafted very high, and aren't going to be available where we usually pick.  By the time you get to the mid/late 20s of the 1st Round, most of the guys left on the board are one or the other.  

 

When given a choice, the Bills simply don't value speed at the WR as highly as other teams.  They want a guy who is going to also contribute in the running game and Red Zone WAY more than someone who is going to draw an extra safety away deep downfield.  I'm sure they wouldn't mind having someone like Xavier Worthy on the roster.  But other teams (like KC) are always going to value that skillset higher, so they often get snatched-up before Beane would consider drafting them.

 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-nfl-deep-passers-of-2021-three-qbs-playing-for-new-teams-i

 

By 2021 Josh Allen certainly vastly improved his deep ball 

 

The NFL considers a deep ball over 20 yards.. most deep balls thrown by burrow or tua or cousins are 25-30 yard floaters 

 

Josh likes to hold the ball and he throws 40 yard deep balls at a much higher rate than the rest of the NFL 

 

Which has like a 20% chance of completion rate.. even the type of deep balls Josh throws compared to most quarterbacks are different 

 

Josh has a 20-25 yd square in , In his deep ball repertoire behind linebackers and in front of safeties on a rope.. Joe burrow can't make that deep ball

Wonderful. That's not the kind of deep ball I'm talking about. And I'm pretty sure you know that already. And what the NFL declares is a "deep ball" (20 yards lol) isn't the topic 

 

I'm talking "Go". I'm talking straight up the field past the safeties. We don't have to do this dance with all the mental gymnastics and pretend Josh is great at everything. And I don't need charts and graphs and analytics to tell me what my eyes tell me. He does NOT throw a good "Go" route. He had one season and maybe a half of the one that followed where he looked like it was coming around. That's about it.

[WotAGuy]

Why is this theory only “potentially” stupid, that’s what I wanna know. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

If he was throwing rainbows and they were getting blown off track you may be on to something but he’s not. He throws them low and hard. It’s very hard to be accurate on go routes the way he throws them. Even if he is accurate it’s tough to track and catch for the receiver because the ball is coming low and fast behind your head. If it’s not perfectly accurate it’s sailing over their head. He also has the problem on the road and in domes. So it’s not the wind. 

I think you nailed it.  His arm release isn't right to throw a deep ball. You need a little more "over the top" release on the ball.  Can he do that?  Sure. But for some reason he doesn't. 

[frostbitmic]

Connecting on the long pass would have our Offense scoring faster which puts McDermott's Defense on the field more.

[Rockinon]

The deeper the throw, the less likely it is going to be caught. It's a lower percentage throw and that's true of all QBs, even Josh. Still, it is nice having a burner to keep defenses honest. I personally think the Bills are embracing the run game. This can also keep a defense honest because those successful runs help to open up the pass game. And I think folks may be overstating the need for a deep threat burner. We have TEs and RBs that can catch the ball too. I know the Bills struggled some last season but Brady didn't take long to find other ways to win. I'm looking forward to seeing what he can come up with after having a full season behind him. And MVP Josh seems to be embracing his leadership in the offense as well.

 

Add in a defense that gets the ball back more often, we might just see the offense take another step forward instead of backwards. I know. It's not the theme on this board. Wouldn't be the first time I've been wrong. Don't think I am though....

[Rich Stadium Original]

Think the lack of a long ball is a combination of things. Obviously a speedy receiver is part of the equation..but after having some deep success with the likes of Foster and Brown in his first couple of seasons, teams started playing more of a cover - 2 high shell defense against him...Allen has mentioned it a number of times in interviews. He sees it a lot...as does Mahommes...hence the lack of an explosive KC offense last season.

As that type of defense has a much higher probability of a turnover on a long pass, the new ball-security Allen doesn't like the odds and usually ends up going with the underneath routes instead...and you can't argue with recent success.

 

[oldmanfan]

If Brady wanted a guy you can put outside and run fast down the field, he has one in Hamler.  Had one in Isabella.  The fact he never used them says something to me about what he values.  You want speed, separation, good hands, etc you’re talking more about first round type talent.

Edited 8 hours ago by oldmanfan