A potentially stupid theory on why the Bills seem less interested in downfield speed at WR

[SoonerBillsFan]

27 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Except in money situations like the playoffs. I also agree with the poster above, about what the element of treat does for the offense. 

I personally think it's because Beane doesn't  consider it a position that they are particularly strong at scouting. This is based on passed press conferences, where he has discussed, how immensely difficult to scout that position. Some of the best organizations, have struggled with the WR position. NE during the Brady era, Baltimore, and even most recently the Eagles.

And I am in with that if they invest in the right FA.

[sven233]

The benefits of a speed WR far outweigh the ability to hit on the long ball consistently.  It's about opening up other areas of the field.  Allen's best throws are not 60 yards down the field on go routes.  He also isn't the best thrower of the ball at the LOS or under 10 yards down the field.  Allen separates himself in the intermediate parts of the field.  His big plays come in chunks of 15-30 yards.  So just tell guys to get open in that range, right?  No....it's not that simple. 

 

Just look at what happened last year.  The first few games were great offensively.  "Everybody Eats" was brand new and we came out of the gates fast because teams didn't know what to expect.  But then we played a team with a real defense in Baltimore.  They had several games on film and figured out exactly what we were doing.  They realized that we had no threat down the field so what did they do.  They brought their safeties up closer to the LOS and played man coverage.  They basically said fine....we'll give you the deep shots all day and let's see if your WRs can beat us.  We couldn't and that in turn clogged the middle of the field and made it difficult to move the ball because they knew there wasn't a chance a WR was going to beat their CBs down the field.  Houston then did a lot of the same types of things.  That's when we knew we had to do something to try and stretch the field and went and got Cooper.  While he was a shell of his former self, he was still able to stretch the field deeper and make enough contested catches where things loosened up a bit again.

 

Say what you want about Allen's completion percentage down the field over 50 yards.  You know who else isn't accurate that far down the field?  Most every QB in the NFL including Mahomes.  He missed Worthy probably 10 times last season when he was open down the field.  But you know what?  He kept throwing it and teams HAD to respect it even if they weren't completed every time.  Having a guy that can scare the pants off a DC and force them to keep their safeties deep and over the top changes everything underneath in the intermediate parts of the field where our guy loves to live.

 

That said, my fear, and a lot of people's fear, is that the same thing that happened last year, happens this year.  We'll come out of the gate with a few good games on offense because there will be some new wrinkles and Palmer will be new and an unknown.  Then, teams will have 3-4 games on tape, see what we're going, and make the necessary adjustments.  If we aren't at least testing teams down the field consistently, and everything is within 20 yards of the LOS because we don't have anyone that can separate down the field again, we're going to be in the same spot we were last year when we had to get desperate and trade for Cooper.  That's why heading into this offseason getting a WR or even 2 with legit deep speed, explosion, and separation ability down the field was so important.  We had to force teams out of man coverage and back their safeties off.  We didn't do it.  In fact, while Beane has said we haven't regressed, I am not so sure of that.  We lost Hollins who had the most TDs in the passing game and we also lost Cooper who was the only one really winning at all down the field within the design of the play.  Most of the downfield stuff we did complete was backyard football stuff were Allen put the cape on.  I dare anyone to tell me how many balls over 30 yards were completed within the actual design and construction of the play.  I can almost guarantee you that you will be able to count them on 1 hand.....and you may not use all of your fingers.

 

Now, we did bring Palmer in and I actually think he will be pretty good for us.  I think, at minimum, he will be a slight upgrade to Hollins and should separate more than any other WR we have on this roster not named Shakir.  But is that enough to scare teams enough and force them to back off their safeties?  I am not so sure.  Allen is the best QB in the league in my opinion and he will mask a lot of shortcomings on this offense as he does every year.  Unfortunately, I just have a feeling that 4-5 weeks into the season we are going to be in need of that big play WR yet again and we'll have to hope Beane can find a better trade than Cooper this time.  One thing that could possibly help us out a lot is to use a ton more play action.  Many of you know how much I was clamoring for that every week last season and it never happened.  Allen is literally one of the best QBs in the league off play action and we call it like once or twice a game if we're lucky.  But that's a different conversation for a different day.  Ugh.....don't get me started on Brady's lack of play action calls.

Edited 14 hours ago by sven233

[RobbRiddick]

I have to say that had crossed my mind. I was wondering why they wouldn't go after a legit speedster and was thinking "Allen surely must have asked for one? And since he is the Bills franchise why wouldn't they do it?" All I could conclude was that Josh has said he prefers the gameplan the way it was this season (it got him an MVP so you can see why that would be the case).  

 

Maybe he doesn't even want the temptation of getting reckless and chucking deep instead of checking down. It's like how I prefer not to have candy in the house because I lack the discipline of not eating it all in one evening. It's all or nothing. I am the Josh Allen of calorie intake (although my wife is more Halley's Comet than Hailee Steinfeld)

 

 

[Malazan]

56 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

 

Allen is also prone to trying to throw that route. It's why I was so apprehensive about Dorsey because it felt like he'd feed into Allen's competitiveness to make those big plays when it hasn't been his most effective route. Perhaps they are attempting to 'save him from himself', but I also suspect it's just part of the organizational philosophy that they want to control the ball and often trying these routes leads to short drives and giving the ball back to the other team.

[Solomon Grundy]

He threw it just fine to Robert Foster

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

Proof is in the results too…look at how much better Allen was with the ball last year, how much more efficient and better this offense was, how many more points it scored, and how much more balance it had.

 

 

[GolfandBills]

Tired of the WR debate… so annoying 

[ganesh]

Josh had no problem throwing to 0ne-dimensional speed merchants such as Foster and Brown.

[Coach Tuesday]

4 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

Tired of the WR debate… so annoying 

So go golfing and let us discuss it.

[Andrew Son]

He’s simply a poor deep ball thrower.  Not nearly enough arc to be trackable.  

[Steptide]

McDermott has said alot that playing the 2 deep safeties takes away the deep ball. I believe it's more of a philosophy thing (the lack of urgency at receiver I mean). Theoretically, you don't need down field guys as much as you once did 

[Kmart128]

Why does everyone come up with these weird theories. I think we generally wanted to go WR earlier but the board just didn't fall that way for us 

[blacklabel]

1 hour ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

And when he does throw it well, the receiver drops it in the playoffs…against the Chiefs…at home…

..and I am not bitter…

 

I could've kicked rocks for a week over that one. When he launched that thing, my first thought was, "Geez Louise dude, keep it in the stadium." But then I see Diggs get under it and I'm like, "Oh man, he's got a chance at this! *plop* Sonofabiscuit!"

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

There was a reason they brought Cooper in after the Bills were dominated by the Ravens in the first games.

 

I would settle for a Cooper type 

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I don't think that's stupid at all, actually. I've had the same thoughts. 

 

People confuse arm strength with deep ball accuracy. Allen has a strong arm. Allen is not a good deep ball thrower. Both can be true.

 

The only thing I want to see is Allen with a Worthy, someone he would have real issue over throwing that can also get 5-10 yards past his man deep and just have Allen heave it deep and let the speed guy go get it. Even if the hook up hits 5-6 times over the course of the year it makes it so the defense has to respect that outside speed and play against it. 

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-nfl-deep-passers-of-2021-three-qbs-playing-for-new-teams-i

 

By 2021 Josh Allen certainly vastly improved his deep ball 

 

The NFL considers a deep ball over 20 yards.. most deep balls thrown by burrow or tua or cousins are 25-30 yard floaters 

 

Josh likes to hold the ball and he throws 40 yard deep balls at a much higher rate than the rest of the NFL 

 

Which has like a 20% chance of completion rate.. even the type of deep balls Josh throws compared to most quarterbacks are different 

 

Josh has a 20-25 yd square in , In his deep ball repertoire behind linebackers and in front of safeties on a rope.. Joe burrow can't make that deep ball

Edited 13 hours ago by Buffalo716

[Billzgobowlin]

I would say I think more about who is available when we pick every year and how does the options of speed WR severely limit our options.  Can we find someone fast that is good enough to see the field?

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

 

Allen's deep balls are mostly the "deep over" routes which he actually does throw exceptionally well.

 

25-30 yards running across the field and usually drops it in the bucket.

 

But you aren't wrong on Allen's deep balls...sometimes they are beautifully in stride and then other times they get players injured like Kincaid when is literally so wide open he could have thrown up a punt to him and it would have been a TD and he forced him to try and dive for it and hurts his PCL for that kept him out several weeks...

 

Can't say I've ever seen a player get seriously hurt on a wide open overthrow...that's a new one on me.

Edited 13 hours ago by Big Turk

[Shortchaz]

I’m hoping josh eventually learns to throw the change-up. 

[dave mcbride]

I think the issue with his deep throwing is less that he’s more inaccurate than other qbs than that his arm is SO strong and the velocity so high that receivers simply can’t adjust like they can on throws from russell wilson and aaron rodgers. He doesn’t throw rainbows; he throws low-arc ropes that travel 50+ yards. They have to be close to perfect in placement given that the receiver will not be able to adjust. When he connects, which has happened often enough, it’s a thing of beauty.

Edited 13 hours ago by dave mcbride

[Maine-iac]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/next-gen-stats-top-10-nfl-deep-passers-of-2021-three-qbs-playing-for-new-teams-i

 

By 2021 Josh Allen certainly vastly improved his deep ball 

 

The NFL considers a deep ball over 20 yards.. most deep balls thrown by burrow or tua or cousins are 25-30 yard floaters 

 

Josh likes to hold the ball and he throws 40 yard deep balls at a much higher rate than the rest of the NFL 

 

Which has like a 20% chance of completion rate.. even the type of deep balls Josh throws compared to most quarterbacks are different 

 

Josh has a 20-25 yd square in , In his deep ball repertoire behind linebackers and in front of safeties on a rope.. Joe burrow can't make that deep ball

Explored this a while back.  We actually were one of the league leaders in explosive plays this year even without "a burner".  A player like AJ Brown keeps safeties in a 2 deep shell not because he's going to outrun anyone but because his release package can stack a CB and because his deep route running gets him open on posts and sail routes.  These are all things that Palmer or Coleman (as he learns the route running) can do.

Edited 13 hours ago by Maine-iac