A potentially stupid theory on why the Bills seem less interested in downfield speed at WR

[Simon]

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

[kota]

how far down the field do you want him to throw?  70 yards?  Bills have speed they just don't call aout of downfield stuff.

 

[BuffaloBillies]

A deep route takes at least one defender with him and shades the safety.

Don't need to throw the deep ball, but the threat alone opens up other parts of the field. 

Maybe a burner wr helps like that. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

I don't think that's stupid at all, actually. I've had the same thoughts. 

 

People confuse arm strength with deep ball accuracy. Allen has a strong arm. Allen is not a good deep ball thrower. Both can be true.

 

The only thing I want to see is Allen with a Worthy, someone he would have real issue over throwing that can also get 5-10 yards past his man deep and just have Allen heave it deep and let the speed guy go get it. Even if the hook up hits 5-6 times over the course of the year it makes it so the defense has to respect that outside speed and play against it. 

[Simon]

1 minute ago, BuffaloBillies said:

Don't need to throw the deep ball, but the threat alone opens up other parts of the field. 

 

If you can't complete it, I don't think coordinators consider it a threat.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

11 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

 
I’ve been thinking this for quite some time. If you look at his games from 2018-2020 man there are many overthrows and I’m not exaggerating, MANY. They’ve been getting possession WR since and basically taking that play almost completely away if you watch his games from 2021 to present. 

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

It’s not a stupid theory.

 

I think there’s a very reasonable argument that it’s not Josh’s best club is his bag, so you don’t want to over commit to it.

 

Like if Miami called us and said “hey we’ll trade you Tyreek for a 1st and you paying $30M,” I think there’s a reasonable argument that despite him being a net positive to the offense, his skill set and Josh’s probably are not an optimal match and may not justify the cost.

But by the same token, I think the THREAT of the deep ball is something that strategically makes a lot of sense to add.

 

Ultimately, I think the WR room construction/fits etc was nailed on the head by @GunnerBill earlier, and that the Bills just get guys that their OC wants/likes and each OC has wanted different skill sets. Daboll wanted more route runner and shifty guys, Dorsey wanted more high EPA deep shot guys, and Brady is more RAC types. 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

And when he does throw it well, the receiver drops it in the playoffs…against the Chiefs…at home…

..and I am not bitter…

[fergie's ire]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I don't think that's stupid at all, actually. I've had the same thoughts. 

 

People confuse arm strength with deep ball accuracy. Allen has a strong arm. Allen is not a good deep ball thrower. Both can be true.

 

The only thing I want to see is Allen with a Worthy, someone he would have real issue over throwing that can also get 5-10 yards past his man deep and just have Allen heave it deep and let the speed guy go get it. Even if the hook up hits 5-6 times over the course of the year it makes it so the defense has to respect that outside speed and play against it. 

Agreed.  And we used to run into disagreements a lot early in Josh's career because I also think you need to define what you meant by "deep ball."  Josh will throw it 40/50 yards on a line because his arm is so strong and he is great at those.  He makes throws nobody else can make, but what I think we are talking about here are those rainbow throws that Russell Wilson is so good at.

[Allen2Moulds]

Except in money situations like the playoffs. I also agree with the poster above, about what the element of threat does for the offense. 

I personally think it's because Beane doesn't  consider it a position that they are particularly strong at scouting. This is based on passed press conferences, where he has discussed, how immensely difficult to scout that position is. Some of the best organizations, have struggled with the WR position. NE during the Brady era, Baltimore, and even most recently the Eagles.

Edited 14 hours ago by Allen2Moulds

[LABILLBACKER]

6 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

If you can't complete it, I don't think coordinators consider it a threat.

Opposing DC's know Josh can struggle from time to time with deep throws. There's not as much threat from us if we not only lack a speed wr, but have a qb where the deep ball is not one of his strengths. They're less likely to pinch a safety that side. Drafting Coleman kinda validates your theory.  Josh thrives on the intermediate routes.

[Brandon]

Nah,  I don't think so.  It's not Allen's best throw by any stretch,  but he's definitely not so bad at it that you just take it out of the offense and give up on it.  He's made his share of deep passes to Diggs,  Davis and Brown in the past.  

[GASabresIUFan]

26 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

I don't think this is a stupid theory at all.  We have seen many QBs throughout NFL history with cannons for arms who had no idea where the bomb was actually going (see Jeff George).   We have certainly seen Josh miss open receivers deep over the years. 

 

I'm going to add another factor.  What if the issue is less Josh and more the crazy wind conditions in Highmark Stadium?  For decades we have seen kickers and punters struggle with the wind conditions in Buffalo.  Is a 40 yard throw in the air any less likely to be affected by the wind than a 40 yard punt or 50 yard FG?

Edited 14 hours ago by GASabresIUFan

[hondo in seattle]

While Josh has a tremendously strong arm, his deep accuracy is merely average.

 

It's no reason not to throw deep.  Facing Cover 2 and Cover 3 a lot is.  So is having receivers who don't get separation deep. 

 

In either case, it's a problem.  The most impotent offenses put defenses on their heels with they can effectively attack every part of the field.  

[Coach Tuesday]

12 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

Except in money situations like the playoffs. I also agree with the poster above, about what the element of treat does for the offense. 

I personally think it's because Beane doesn't  consider it a position that they are particularly strong at scouting. This is based on passed press conferences, where he has discussed, how immensely difficult to scout that position. Some of the best organizations, have struggled with the WR position. NE during the Brady era, Baltimore, and even most recently the Eagles.

This is what I’ve been saying.

[BillsVet]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

This is what I’ve been saying.

 

Makes sense that they've traded for 3 and signed several in UFA during their tenure with relatively few drafted in RD1-4.  At the same time, that gets pretty costly  taking on or adding new contracts.

 

Seems like their approach is to avoid the problem and just import WRs who have some actual NFL tape on them.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

14 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I don't think this is a stupid theory at all.  We have seen many QBs throughout NFL history with cannons for arms who had no idea where the bomb was actually going (see Jeff George).   We have certainly seen Josh miss open receivers deep over the years. 

 

I'm going to add another factor.  What if the issue is less Josh and more the crazy wind conditions in Highmark Stadium?  For decades we have seen kickers and punters struggle with the wind conditions in Buffalo.  Is a 40 yard throw in the air any less likely to be affected by the wind than a 40 yard punt or 50 yard FG?

I don't have the answer to that. BUT I do remember JP Losman throwing some really pretty moon balls to Lee Evans at the Ralph.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Makes sense that they've traded for 3 and signed several in UFA during their tenure with relatively few drafted in RD1-4.  At the same time, that gets pretty costly  taking on or adding new contracts.

 

Seems like their approach is to avoid the problem and just import WRs who have some actual NFL tape on them.  

It’s perhaps the worst position group to get almost exclusively FA shopping

[SoonerBillsFan]

44 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Josh Allen does not throw the 9 well.

His first few years when he was overprotective of the ball he was constantly overthrowing guys to keep it away from NFL corners. He was smart enough to recognize the issue and as he got more confident he started taking a little off his throws but it often resulted in underthrows that turned good separation into contested catches (note to Keon; when Josh waves you to go deep, he doesn't mean go deep, he means go DEEP. You are not likely to outrun that arm young fella).

It's one part of his game that he really hasn't been able to fully develop yet and I wonder if McBeane is reluctant to bring in one-dimensional track stars to run routes that Allen doesn't throw well.

Add that to the fact that it's really hard to find a combination of true speed and blocking ability (which they clearly want most of their WRs to have) and it could be a legitimate reason why they seem more interested in the Shakirs, Samuels, Diggs and Colemans of the world than they do the Worthys and THills.

Excuse me good sir,please do not inject an ounce of logic into our ranting.  

 

Sincerely, 

 

The Mob

[Mister Defense]

I used to think this overall, but then Allen seemed to overcome that problem a few years ago.  For example, in the playoff game they lost at home to the chiefs two seasons ago, his longer throws were very solid, but the receivers 'dropped the ball'.

 

So, maybe some truth to this theory, though I think in the last few years he has looked very good throwing the deeper balls.

 

But a fast wide receiver does not have to go very deep, just so so, as the speed can then help him take it there.

 

I still think it is the missing element in an otherwise excellent, Super Bowl caliber offense. Something that will make us say, "This is the most dangerous offense that has ever played." 

 

Hopefully someone on the team now can be that guy, such as Palmer.  Not a a burner but a very high YPC in his career.

 

 

 

Edited 14 hours ago by Mister Defense