Logic's 2025 NFL Draft Review

[davefan66]

Landon Jackson looks to be a bit raw, yet played great.  Looks to be still growing into his body, but once he gets NFL strength coaching, dude will be a force.

 

Tremendous upside and the he should be a game wrecker at some point.  Love this pick!!

[Allen2Moulds]

16 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree with this…but let’s also remember it’s a lot of youth too, so raised expectations are warranted but also some patience will be needed to let these guys get their feet wet and develop too as the season goes on.  
 

With vets like Tre, DQ, Oliver, Groot, Bosa, etc here don’t be surprised if none of them open week 1 as the starter at their respective positions and see their roles grow as the season goes on.  Collins and Sanders are assured healthy snap counts as we run a heavy rotation, but it’s not out of the question that if Tre looks good in camp he opens at their starter.  

I have to slightly disagree, at least with Hairston. If he's not the week 1 starter, I'll be slightly concerned. Agree on the rest, but also think Sanders should factor in right away as the first DT off the bench. 

[Alphadawg7]

26 minutes ago, Allen2Moulds said:

I have to slightly disagree, at least with Hairston. If he's not the week 1 starter, I'll be slightly concerned. Agree on the rest, but also think Sanders should factor in right away as the first DT off the bench. 

I get the sentiment, I want him to start early.  But the reality is this regime tends to prefer not throwing rookies in early unless there is a clear hole.  And Tre is a wildcard.  2 years removed from injuries, if he shows some of his previous form just wouldn’t surprise me if he starts initially.

 

FWIW - I think Hairston is more likely to start week 1 than not

 

 

Edited Sunday at 06:12 PM by Alphadawg7

[Allen2Moulds]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I get the sentiment, I want him to start early.  But the reality is this regime tends to prefer not throwing rookies in early unless there is a clear hole.  And Tre is a wildcard.  2 years removed from injuries, if he shows some of his previous form just wouldn’t surprise me if he starts initially.

 

FWIW - I think Hairston is more likely to start week 1 than not

 

 

That would be the outlier, and a nice surprise. That being said, I'm not going to completely rule it out. What a nice problem that would be to have. However, if Hairston is going to be the player I think he has the potential to become, he's a day 1 starter. This is probably also due to my personal bias, given how much I wanted the Bills to draft this kid.

[Cash]

Good post, @Logic!  I was planning to do my own draft recap post, but it turned out to be more of a holistic "state of the roster" musing.  This thread is as good a place as any for it:

 

Offense: I've read maybe a third of the WR discussion posts flying around right now (so like 10,000 of the 30,000 such posts), and I recently listened to Beane's 3 post-draft pressers and his testy interview with WGR.  Here's where I'm at.  I think Beane has a point when he points to the success numbers of last year's offense.  I also think that, while he's telling the truth in the sense that he believes what he's saying, he's not telling the full truth.  I think the Bills went into the draft figuring that sticking to their board would result in picking a WR by the end of round 5 or so.  In Beane's Day 3 presser, he said a couple of times that they stuck to their board except at the very end.  He didn't specify where that changeover happened, but at a minimum it suggests that Kaden Prather was not at the top of their board, and they specifically were drafting BWRA at that spot.  And likewise, in comes Elijah Moore for a visit.  Whether him or not, I expect that Beane will sign 1-2 cheap vets between now and training camp, similar to Claypool and MVS last year.  There's no way they feel they're set at WR with just Shakir, Coleman, Palmer, Samuel, Shavers, and Prather.  [Friends: No one else is worth listing.  I'm sorry if you feel otherwise, but it's true.]

 

I've posted before about the need to at least try to improve on offense.  The short version:  1.) Our TO rates on both sides of the ball were unsustainably high and likely to regress even if we play as well or better next year, 2.) Our offense had a serious flaw pre-Cooper and Cooper only mitigated the flaw a medium amount, and 3.) Last year our season ended when we turned the ball over on downs with a chance to take the lead late in the game.  [Friends: I know the defense was worse than the offense.  Two things can be true.  Under the growth mindset that McBeane always preach about, you should be trying to improve both your strengths and your weaknesses.]  Have we improved on offense?  I think there's a chance, but only if we get tangible development from one or more of our returning young guys, OR if Joe Brady takes a leap as OC.  At this point of the offseason, it looks like we will once again have a GREAT regular-season attack, which is once again vulnerable to elite defenses clogging the middle and daring us to beat them 1-on-1 on the outside.  That's Good Enough (to win the Super Bowl), and that's a good thing!  But I'm a little wistful because I don't think it'll be Elite.  It'll take a while to know for sure, because IMO you can't tell the difference except against teams like the Eagles, Chiefs, and Ravens.

 

Defense: Last year's defense was bizarre.  Great at forcing TOs, abysmal on 3rd down, better against the run and worse against the pass than casuals thought.  Next year's should be better, but no one cares.  We care about, "Will the defense be good enough to get a stop when we need one in the playoffs?"  I have no idea, but I'm hoping for yes.  I'm going to ignore the LBs, b/c they're basically unchanged from last year, and talk a bit about the line and secondary.  First, the secondary: I love our draft additions.  I feel great about our CB situation, both outside and nickel.  I'm very curious to see who wins the starting safety job next to Rapp.  Most people are expecting Bishop, but he showed very little promise last year.  He was definitely hurt by missing camp, and McD says safety is 2nd-hardest after MLB to learn in his defense, so there are some valid excuses there.  But there's also a not-crazy scenario where Bishop is just a bust, and never gets on the field by choice.  I think if anyone is going to be Micah Hyde 2.0, it's probably Hancock, but I'd be shocked if he was in the mix to start in 2025.  I'm intrigued by Darrick Forrest, but honestly just because of McD's past success signing Hyde and Poyer.

 

On to the d-line.  I'm a little puzzled by and a little skeptical about the Bills' approach at DT:

Daquon Jones - 1T only

Ed Oliver - 3T only

Larry Ogunjobie - 3T primarily

TJ Sanders - per Beane's presser, 3T primarily but can/will play some 1T

Deone Walker - someone posted on his thread that he spent like 45% of snaps at 3T, 20-25% at 1T, and another 20-25% at DE or something like that

DeWayne Carter - sounds like he's switching from primarily 3T to primarily 1T - maybe full time?

We have 1 dude on the roster who has spent more time at 1T than 3T in either college or pro.  That's weird.  Is that a sign that the Bills are ahead of the curve, or high on their own supply?  We'll find out.  I'm not too worried about the run defense.  They always look vulnerable against the run, and almost always wind up not being killed by the run.  I think my hope/best case scenario is that we get creative in both how we line up and deploy guys.  Similar to how Lorenzo Alexander was used when McD first took over, but with several guys being used like that.  It sounded like that was the plan with Hoecht when he was signed, and the rookies feed into that as well from what I've read.

 

First impression prediction for each pick:

Hairston: Multi-year starter, potential star

Sanders: Contributes as a rookie, becomes above-average starter

Jackson: Similar career to AJ Epenesa, maybe a little better

Walker: Either turns out he just can't play in the NFL, or he becomes an impact player for us

Hancock: Makes the team; starting safety down the road

Hawes: Makes the team; 10 year career as a good blocking TE

Strong: Makes the team, core special teamer at first; maybe grows into a starter-level player

Lundt: Cut in training camp, picked up by another team

Prather: Cut in training camp, makes our practice squad, never amounts to anything in the regular season

[Success]

Great write-up.

 

I loved this draft, and the emphasis on defense. I really don't want to pull my hair out anymore in the 4th quarter of playoff games.