2025 NFL Draft - Day 1 Debrief

[GunnerBill]

The 2025 NFL Draft got off to a fast start with the big trade up by the Jaguars and ended for the Bills with an explosive athlete added to the secondary. In terms of level of drama and intrigue it wasn't quite the bonkers first round of two years ago but was definitely a step up on the Thursday night snore fest in 2024. I have to say I wasn't blown away by Green Bay as a host. Other than the 15 minutes when the Packers were on the clock and then their pick was announced the crowd seemed pretty flat compared to some of the host cities we have seen in recent years - particularly thinking Detroit and Nashville. As ever great fun in the draft thread here though, already looking forward to night 2, but first.... here we go!

 

The Bills Pick

It was about two weeks ago that tracking the Bills visits, their history and the likely shape of the first round I first said that I thought the pick at #30 would come down to Trey Amos, Nic Scourton or Max Hariston. And while I ended up with Trey Amos in my final mock, the Gunner and Gonzo Draft pod in its debut year NAILED the Bills first pick as we had them taking Hariston. I suppose the slight surprise was Brandon Beane not trading.... he hasn't done a sit and pick in round 1 since take Greg Rousseau in 2021 and it is only the third time of his entire GM reign that he has done it (the other being Ed Oliver in 2019). He did mention in his pre-draft presser that Brian Gaine and Terrance Gray have a job to do to stop him getting impatient - maybe they stole his phone as the Bills pick got closer? 

 

So, what are the Bills getting in Hariston? Obviously a really talented and explosive athlete. You see the speed on the field and while Brandon Beane referred specifically to the recovery speed the thing that I noticed more was his quick trigger to close in off coverage. I don't want to harp back to the Kaiir Elam pick too much here because what is done is done and it is water under the bridge now, but his film worried me precisely because of his transitions in off coverage from back pedal to close where it felt like he had to crank those long levers up to get moving.... with Hariston it is INSTANT and I mean instant. His trigger is fantastic and the speed with which he then closes the space to the receiver is super impressive. He just eats up the ground. I don't have a concern about ball production either. It was there in 2023 when he was fully healthy and played the full season. He is going to get picks in the NFL. His aggressive nature reminds me a bit of a Trevon Diggs or the 2023 version of Rasul Douglas the Bills got right after the trade. Mad Max will jump plenty of routes and when he intercepts the ball unless you got DK Metcalf or someone at wide receiver to chase him down he is taking it to the house. The areas where he needs some work are two fold for me. He does have a little tendency to get there too early when he is in recovery mode and can get his hands on a receiver before the ball is there. Even the big PBU Beane mentioned against Isaiah Bond... great play... but in the NFL that is a borderline flag because he has his hand on Bond's left shoulder before he reaches his right arm across his body to play the ball. He will just need to watch that. And secondly, the mental development. I mentioned yesterday in my draft compendium thread the reason he was my CB6, a point behind Amos who was my CB5, was because there are a few more mental errors on the film. Some of that is the natural trade off for his hyper aggression where he just needs to stay disciplined or else will give up occasional big plays and some of it is just a bit of maturity. He is still a young guy who hasn't played a ton of college ball and is still developing. 

 

Finally, what a great young man he appears to be. Infectious smile, the hugs and dabs for every other guy leaving the green room ahead of him, and the way he conducted himself on his zoom with the Bills beat guys. Can absolutely see why McDermott and Beane would love him. I know Keon Coleman last year was a guy with a fun personality, but he was fun and a little kooky. I think Hariston is just positive, happy, infectious young man. I doubt he will spend his intro presser talking about buying coats at Macey's. I wish him a long, happy and successful career with the Buffalo Bills!

 

My Mock

Really good night for the mock after a shaky start. I felt really good about the order I had the top 15 in and then the Jaguars trading up kinda sent it all sideways. But the second half of the round I was cooking and ended up with EIGHT player and team matches (which is new personal best) and 27 of the 32 guys going in round one correctly identified (which matches 2022 and 2023 but is one down on my best last year when I had 28). My eight matches were: Ward (Titans), Carter (Giants) and Campbell (Patriots) - those three were easy - and then Stewart (Bengals), Harmon (Steelers), Pearce (Falcons), Starks (Ravens) and Simmons (Chiefs). That's a pretty good haul. I then had three more right position, wrong player matches including - of course - the Bills.

 

The five first rounders I missed on where: Jaxon Dart (knew there was a chance with a trade back in but don't do trades in my final mock); Omarion Hampton (was the guy I felt least good about leaving out of my 32); Josh Conerly (again, just couldn't find a spot for him) and then Donovan Jackson and Tyleik Williams (both of whom I consider reaches on low ceiling guys).

 

Player(s) I was high on...

I broadly thought last night that guys went in the ranges they should have done. I felt a sense of vindication I suppose on Kelvin Banks Jnr who has always been a top 10 player in this class for me and the talking heads were definitely lower on him than the NFL. Only in the last week have you seen him make his way into the top 10/12 of mock drafts after two months of people pegging him in the 20s. He is going to make the Saints very happy. Likewise on Jahdae Barron being the first pure corner off the board. The first time I did corners back in the first week of January it was clear to my eyes at least that he was the best corner in the draft. My word the thought of him in that Denver defense starting opposite Pat Surtain in base and then potentially sliding Barron inside as a matchup weapon in nickel, the way the Chiefs use McDuffie at times and the Seahwaks use Witherspoon... that is a terrifying prospect for opposing offenses. Even Patrick Mahomes might have a sleepless night or two going against that twice a year. And finally Malaki Starks - he was another, like Banks and Barron in my second mini-tier of this class. I knew he'd go later, just because safeties do. But the pairing of a Starks and Hamilton at safety in Baltimore? Not a stretch to say it has GOAT level potential as a combo. The guys I had first round grades, or first round borderline grades on that are still on the board? Mike Green (off-field), Will Johnson (injury) and Shavon Revel (injury). All three of those guys on talent alone would have gone in round one. 

 

Player(s) I was down on...

It seems in recent years the lowest ranked guy by my board is always a Quarterback and this was no different. Jaxon Dart with a 2nd/3rd round borderline grade was the lowest graded guy taken and I sort of get it, the Giants had to try something at Quarterback and I prefer this route than forcing one of these guys at #3 when an elite talent like Abdul Carter was sitting there. I also don't mind the price they paid, which was a little bit below the trade charts value, coming up nine spots back into the first at the cost of just a compensatory third this year and a third next year? Sensible deal. Think the player is a risk, talented but needs to improve his decision making. Interested to see how it works out.

 

Biggest shock of the night

I did mention in my mock yesterday and on the Gunner and Gonzo collab that the word on the street with the Jaguars was expect the unexpected. The sure delivered on that! I had heard whispers in the day about a trade up, but when I checked in with a buddy who runs a pretty influential fan blog for the Jags UK fanbase his sense was they were interested but not willing to pay the big price Cleveland was demanding. That obviously changed. I don't hate the price as much as some people: this was a Jimmy Johnson chart trade. They needed to make a up a difference of 1100 points to go from #5 to #2 and gave up 1116. By the Rich Hill chart I think they overpaid by a round this year. They needed to make up a 249 point difference and by the chart made up 349... whereas had the pick this year been a third rather than a second they'd have given up 256. Proof if it is needed that there are GMs out there who still hold faithful to getting their Jimmy Johnson value. I think Travis Hunter is a great player, but the Jags are not a team I think were at that "all in for one piece" spot. I suppose their thinking is they are tied to Trevor for AT LEAST the next two years so they are not gonna need that 2026 first for a Quarterback. If Hunter is the guy that finally unlocks Lawrence's potential then it will be worth the shot. Risky, but aggressive, and it shows this younger generation of NFL front office decision makers are willing to make moves which keeps things interesting to say the least!

 

Worst Pick

Minnesota Vikings you are on the naughty step. You have four picks in this draft: #24, a compensatory 3rd and two 5th rounders. Your best defensive back, Harrison Smith, is about to turn 104 years old, you still need help on the defensive line and you spend your best draft asset on an interior offensive lineman after spending your big FA dollars on two interior offensive linemen from the Colts (hardly renowned for their line play the past couple of seasons)? Donovan Jackson was the second lowest graded guy selected in round one by my board - I had a late 2nd round grade. He is a good player, he will be a decent starting guard in the NFL. But the positional value sucks and we KNOW there were teams calling for trade ups - the two teams right behind them traded out, and the Eagles started calling for Campbell when he got to #22. I did not understand that move at all. Nonsensical.

 

Big Board Check

Okay I did post this last night (well, this morning) before finally getting off to sleep about 6am. But here is my top 15 BPA going into day two:

 

1. Mike Green^, DE, Marshall

2. Will Johnson*, CB, Michigan

3. Shavon Revel*, CB, East Carolina

4. Nic Scourton, DE, Texas A&M

5. Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss

6. Princely Umanmeilen^, DE, Ole Miss

7. Luther Burden, WR, Missouri

8. Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina

9. TJ Sanders, DT, South Carolina

10. Benjamin Morrison*, CB, Notre Dame

11. Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, Boston College

12. Azareye'h Thomas, CB, Florida State

13. Isaiah Bond^, WR, Texas

14. Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State

15. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

 

I also got asked a few times after round 1 concluded last night what I think might be in play for the Bills at #56 and potentially #62. Similar to the exercise that helped me whittle the first round options down to three guys, including the one they selected, here is my attempt to do the same at least for pick #56 based on interest they have shown, positional need, likely value and potential availability - with an indication of where those players rank right now in terms of my board (think Scourton and Sanders - see above - are also in play but both will be gone IMO):

 

Brayden Swinson, DE - 20th best remaining

Landon Jackson, DE - 24th best remaining

Omar Norman-Lott, DT - 26th best remaining

Jalen Royals, WR - 35th best remaining

Josh Farmer, DT - 47th best remaining

 

Enjoy day 2 folks. I'll be back to debrief tomorrow!

 

[JerseyBills]

Ya when Benford went down early vs KC, our CBs got smoked.  Just didn't have the depth to achieve the ultimate goal. 

It's telling when our 2 ourside CBs who played the majority of the AFC title game are not on the roster and doubtful either will start for any team next year

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 minute ago, JerseyBills said:

Ya when Benford went down early vs KC, our CBs got smoked.  Just didn't have the depth to achieve the ultimate goal. 

It's telling when our 2 ourside CBs who played the majority of the AFC title game are not on the roster and doubtful either will start for any team next year

I'm cool with another CB in the 4th or 5th too. Get some young legs in there.

[JerseyBills]

1 minute ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I'm cool with another CB in the 4th or 5th too. Get some young legs in there.

Same! I think they definitely double dip like Elam/Benford.  Create some great competition 

[gonzo1105]

8 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I'm cool with another CB in the 4th or 5th too. Get some young legs in there.

 

First good work Gunner, I fully expect the Bills to get a good player at 56 at a position of need but it might get a touch dicier at 62 depending on how the board falls. 
 

I also agree with you TBB about the possibility of another CB in this draft to challenge the roster spot of Dane Jackson and Ingram. If they are truly wanting to play more man coverage than the transition isn’t complete. A guy like a Robert Longerbeam in the 5th makes a lot of sense to me. 
 

I guess a serious question I have is do you dare take another CB if a Morrison or Revel is staring at you at 56? I’d be tempted I’m not going to lie 

[No_Matter_What]

At this point I guess it is almost redundant to say that great write up as always Gunner, but I'll say it anyway.

 

I am really happy that you are happy with Hairston.

 

Just a small note - you spelled him as Hariston in the past, and I thought that it was just a typo. But you have it 5x in OP, so it really seems that you don't know his name  He's a Bill now so get your act together!

[QB Bills]

Damn. I wish I loved anything as much as you love the NFL draft. Great work pal.

[LEBills]

4 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

At this point I guess it is almost redundant to say that great write up as always Gunner, but I'll say it anyway.

 

I am really happy that you are happy with Hairston.

 

Just a small note - you spelled him as Hariston in the past, and I thought that it was just a typo. But you have it 5x in OP, so it really seems that you don't know his name  He's a Bill now so get your act together!

That’s just the British spelling, like colour.

 

6 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

First good work Gunner, I fully expect the Bills to get a good player at 56 at a position of need but it might get a touch dicier at 62 depending on how the board falls. 
 

I also agree with you TBB about the possibility of another CB in this draft to challenge the roster spot of Dane Jackson and Ingram. If they are truly wanting to play more man coverage than the transition isn’t complete. A guy like a Robert Longerbeam in the 5th makes a lot of sense to me. 
 

I guess a serious question I have is do you dare take another CB if a Morrison or Revel is staring at you at 56? I’d be tempted I’m not going to lie 

No. Yes to one or two on day 3 tho. 

 

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Bills Pick

It was about two weeks ago that tracking the Bills visits, their history and the likely shape of the first round I first said that I thought the pick at #30 would come down to Trey Amos, Nic Scourton or Max Hariston. And while I ended up with Trey Amos in my final mock, the Gunner and Gonzo Draft pod in its debut year NAILED the Bills first pick as we had them taking Hariston. I suppose the slight surprise was Brandon Beane not trading.... he hasn't done a sit and pick in round 1 since take Greg Rousseau in 2021 and it is only the third time of his entire GM reign that he has done it (the other being Ed Oliver in 2019). He did mention in his pre-draft presser that Brian Gaine and Terrance Gray have a job to do to stop him getting impatient - maybe they stole his phone as the Bills pick got closer? 

 

So, what are the Bills getting in Hariston? Obviously a really talented and explosive athlete. You see the speed on the field and while Brandon Beane referred specifically to the recovery speed the thing that I noticed more was his quick trigger to close in off coverage. I don't want to harp back to the Kaiir Elam pick too much here because what is done is done and it is water under the bridge now, but his film worried me precisely because of his transitions in off coverage from back pedal to close where it felt like he had to crank those long levers up to get moving.... with Hariston it is INSTANT and I mean instant. His trigger is fantastic and the speed with which he then closes the space to the receiver is super impressive. He just eats up the ground. I don't have a concern about ball production either. It was there in 2023 when he was fully healthy and played the full season. He is going to get picks in the NFL. His aggressive nature reminds me a bit of a Trevon Diggs or the 2023 version of Rasul Douglas the Bills got right after the trade. Mad Max will jump plenty of routes and when he intercepts the ball unless you got DK Metcalf or someone at wide receiver to chase him down he is taking it to the house. The areas where he needs some work are two fold for me. He does have a little tendency to get there too early when he is in recovery mode and can get his hands on a receiver before the ball is there. Even the big PBU Beane mentioned against Isaiah Bond... great play... but in the NFL that is a borderline flag because he has his hand on Bond's left shoulder before he reaches his right arm across his body to play the ball. He will just need to watch that. And secondly, the mental development. I mentioned yesterday in my draft compendium thread the reason he was my CB6, a point behind Amos who was my CB5, was because there are a few more mental errors on the film. Some of that is the natural trade off for his hyper aggression where he just needs to stay disciplined or else will give up occasional big plays and some of it is just a bit of maturity. He is still a young guy who hasn't played a ton of college ball and is still developing. 

 

Big Board Check

Okay I did post this last night (well, this morning) before finally getting off to sleep about 6am. But here is my top 15 BPA going into day two:

 

1. Mike Green^, DE, Marshall

2. Will Johnson*, CB, Michigan

3. Shavon Revel*, CB, East Carolina

4. Nic Scourton, DE, Texas A&M

5. Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss

6. Princely Umanmeilen^, DE, Ole Miss

7. Luther Burden, WR, Missouri

8. Nick Emmanwori, S, South Carolina

9. TJ Sanders, DT, South Carolina

10. Benjamin Morrison*, CB, Notre Dame

11. Donovan Ezeiruaku, DE, Boston College

12. Azareye'h Thomas, CB, Florida State

13. Isaiah Bond^, WR, Texas

14. Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State

15. Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

 

I also got asked a few times after round 1 concluded last night what I think might be in play for the Bills at #56 and potentially #62. Similar to the exercise that helped me whittle the first round options down to three guys, including the one they selected, here is my attempt to do the same at least for pick #56 based on interest they have shown, positional need, likely value and potential availability - with an indication of where those players rank right now in terms of my board (think Scourton and Sanders - see above - are also in play but both will be gone IMO):

 

Brayden Swinson, DE - 20th best remaining

Landon Jackson, DE - 24th best remaining

Omar Norman-Lott, DT - 26th best remaining

Jalen Royals, WR - 35th best remaining

Josh Farmer, DT - 47th best remaining

 

Enjoy day 2 folks. I'll be back to debrief tomorrow!

 

Always go with the 21 year old when predicting a Beane first round pick lol.

 

Yea I’m much more excited for Hairston than when we drafted Elam. Elam was such a WTF pick. In addition to what you have said. Being in Kentucky’s defense has him very ready to play zone coverage which is the tougher one to get down and something Elam never could. 

 

I have 4 DTs I would be excited for on day 2, in order: Sanders, Farmer, CJ West, Darius Alexander. Sanders is my preferred player so hopefully the first round run on DTs helps him slide. 
 

Where do you have Xavier Watts ranked? He would be one of my preferred 2nd rounders with Scourton, Landon Jackson, and the WRs.

[TPS]

17 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

First good work Gunner, I fully expect the Bills to get a good player at 56 at a position of need but it might get a touch dicier at 62 depending on how the board falls. 
 

I also agree with you TBB about the possibility of another CB in this draft to challenge the roster spot of Dane Jackson and Ingram. If they are truly wanting to play more man coverage than the transition isn’t complete. A guy like a Robert Longerbeam in the 5th makes a lot of sense to me. 
 

I guess a serious question I have is do you dare take another CB if a Morrison or Revel is staring at you at 56? I’d be tempted I’m not going to lie 

First, I think we'll see a run on the CBs before the Bills pick. Second, I will be shocked if Beane does NOT trade up today.

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

At this point I guess it is almost redundant to say that great write up as always Gunner, but I'll say it anyway.

 

I am really happy that you are happy with Hairston.

 

Just a small note - you spelled him as Hariston in the past, and I thought that it was just a typo. But you have it 5x in OP, so it really seems that you don't know his name  He's a Bill now so get your act together!

 

Wow. You know what I had not even noticed. You know when you get word blind to something that you just see it and presume it says one thing and it doesn't? Haha. Appreciate the spot!

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I guess a serious question I have is do you dare take another CB if a Morrison or Revel is staring at you at 56?

I think you do. 

[SoCal Deek]

You had me at “compendium”. I’ve gotta use that in a few sentences today. 😉

[Bills Juggernaut]

My draft day crush at this point is Tory Horton. Size, speed, production. Fills our vertical threat need. Met with the Bills. I know he isn’t expected to go in the 2nd round but I don’t think there’s any way makes it to our 4th. Would you ever consider him with our pick at 62? 

[MrEpsYtown]

The Hunter move felt very similar to the Sammy Watkins trade-up to help the quarterback. But I agree that they do not feel like they are one move away. 

 

Looks like a Landon Jackson/Josh Farmer possibility. I like Norman-Lott a lot. Then I am guessing they get a WR somewhere. Should be a fun couple of days. 

[JP51]

39 minutes ago, TPS said:

First, I think we'll see a run on the CBs before the Bills pick. Second, I will be shocked if Beane does NOT trade up today.

Yeah, I dont think we are making 10 picks this draft... I think the consensus is that this part of the draft 2-3 rds  has very similar level players. I see him using capitol to either move up picks in Rd 2..  or move into rd 3....

 

One thing I wouldnt discount is he uses the 2 2nd rd picks to move into a much earlier portion of 2 and get a guy that dropped out of 1 that they had a great grade on... say Will Johnson (if they are thinking 2 CBs) Mike Green, or Emmanwouri the saftey or others (I am not a draftnik)... and get a rd 3 pick back.  Like 2 2's and a 4 for a high 30s 2 and a 3rd rounder

Edited 3 hours ago by JP51

[Buffalo4Life01]

I keep hearing the Bills are in love with Josh Farmer, the DT from FSU.  If he is there when Buffalo is on the clock at pick 56, don't be surprised if he's the pick.  I'm reading he isn't flashy or elite but may be the most consistent DT in the draft.  Very intriguing prospect in my opinion. 

Go Bills!!

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

That’s just the British spelling, like colour.

 

No. Yes to one or two on day 3 tho. 

 

Always go with the 21 year old when predicting a Beane first round pick lol.

 

Yea I’m much more excited for Hairston than when we drafted Elam. Elam was such a WTF pick. In addition to what you have said. Being in Kentucky’s defense has him very ready to play zone coverage which is the tougher one to get down and something Elam never could. 

 

I have 4 DTs I would be excited for on day 2, in order: Sanders, Farmer, CJ West, Darius Alexander. Sanders is my preferred player so hopefully the first round run on DTs helps him slide. 
 

Where do you have Xavier Watts ranked? He would be one of my preferred 2nd rounders with Scourton, Landon Jackson, and the WRs.

I really hope they can nab Sanders.  To my eyes he is very quick and disruptive.  He isn’t a big stout run defender, but for interior pass rush he would be a nice get.  I know that’s more hope than expectation…

1 hour ago, JP51 said:

Yeah, I dont think we are making 10 picks this draft... I think the consensus is that this part of the draft 2-3 rds  has very similar level players. I see him using capitol to either move up picks in Rd 2..  or move into rd 3....

 

One thing I wouldnt discount is he uses the 2 2nd rd picks to move into a much earlier portion of 2 and get a guy that dropped out of 1 that they had a great grade on... say Will Johnson (if they are thinking 2 CBs) Mike Green, or Emmanwouri the saftey or others (I am not a draftnik)... and get a rd 3 pick back.  Like 2 2's and a 4 for a high 30s 2 and a 3rd rounder

I don’t think Mike Green is a consideration for the Bills because of the off-field issues. If not for those, he likely would have been picked already.

[JP51]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I really hope they can nab Sanders.  To my eyes he is very quick and disruptive.  He isn’t a big stout run defender, but for interior pass rush he would be a nice get.  I know that’s more hope than expectation…

I don’t think Mike Green is a consideration for the Bills because of the off-field issues. If not for those, he likely would have been picked already.

and thats why i am not a draftnik lol... I did not know that... kinda like Isiah Bond... ? 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

 

Where do you have Xavier Watts ranked? He would be one of my preferred 2nd rounders with Scourton, Landon Jackson, and the WRs.

 

Watts is my 18th best remaining. I don't have him on my list for #56 because a) they didn't have him in on a 30 visit or do a private workout and b) I don't think they'd actually go safety with their first second rounder. If he were to make it to #62 (doubt he does, but if) then I think he would be in play. 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

You see the speed on the field and while Brandon Beane referred specifically to the recovery speed the thing that I noticed more was his quick trigger to close in off coverage. I don't want to harp back to the Kaiir Elam pick too much here because what is done is done and it is water under the bridge now, but his film worried me precisely because of his transitions in off coverage from back pedal to close where it felt like he had to crank those long levers up to get moving.... with Hariston it is INSTANT and I mean instant. His trigger is fantastic and the speed with which he then closes the space to the receiver is super impressive. He just eats up the ground.

 

This is why I loved him as a prospect. The main complaint fans have had about McDermott's defense is we play too far off and give up easy underneath completions which lets elite QBs dink and dunk us to death. In Hairston you add a player that as you said can eat up all of that space in a flash and break on the ball. We haven't had a CB with close to his speed and hip fluidity... I'm really excited to see that skill set in McDermott's defense and I expect it to immediately improve our 3rd down conversion percentage.