Bills First Rnd pick in 2025 draft: Maxwell Hairston - CB - Kentucky

[Maynard]

Not a sexy pick, but fulfills a huge need. I do have some concerns about him. Now on to round 2! 

[Low Positive]

I don't know anything about how this will work out, but I do know that if the Chiefs had drafted the fastest guy at the Combine for the second year in a row this place would be melting down. 

[Bray Wyatt]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

With the Bills rotating as much as they do on the d-line I'm more excited about a CB.

 

Ah didnt know it was bills specific, i just thought in general. In reference to the bills I def agree

[BullBuchanan]

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

They were 8th of 12th position wise in terms of hit ranked.  The 4th of 12th position wise being only 10% higher.  This study was also done six years ago.  I'm guessing you're a never draft a WR in the 1st round guy since they were dead last in hit rate.

So, in other words, they don't have anywhere near an "average" bust rate. 10% is a massive statistical difference.

The study is six years old - so what? You think 2024 will be more kind to your assumptions as offense continues to widen the gap over defense? Did you look at the even more damning PFF data?

I'm not a fan of reaching for a WR in the first round, no. If I'm going to draft one, I want it to be my number #1 or maybe #2 rated WR. I don't want massively flawed/limited players like Coleman in round 1. There's also a big difference in that an elite WR can put points on the board every single play he's on the field where an elite CB, especially in today's game can't hope to take points off that frequently. Even the best CBs get beat, and when they don't, there are 4-5 other players that can beat the lesser quality coverage. If your elite WR is nothing more than a decoy to take away an elite corner, you can still win that way.

[dave mcbride]

23 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Here you go: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2024/04/25/first-round-draft-hit-rates-tracking-rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/73449048007

 

One of the riskiest positions

also this: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-what-historical-hit-rates-reveal-about-positional-success
You could have googled it. It should be common knowledge to people who watch a lot of ball.

Huh? Of the "high-risk" positions, all except RB are passing-game players (CB, Safety, TE, WR). And CBs are the safest of the bunch. But the fact that all the high-risk positions are in the passing game should tell you how hard it is to play well and how valuable players who do excel are. The willingness to gamble is high too because of the value of the passing game: 71 CBs and 77 WRs selected, second and third only to edge rushers (a combo of LBs and DEs). The bust rate for centers is extraordinarily low because a) you shouldn't be taking centers in the first round, and b) if you do, you're probably picking a generational player at that position. 

[JerseyBills]

Feels like a home run, just his character and natural skills, him and Benford could turn out to be 1 of the best tandems in the game

[BullBuchanan]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Huh? Of the "high-risk" positions, all except RB are passing-game players (CB, Safety, TE, WR). And CBs are the safest of the bunch. But the fact that all the high-risk positions are in the passing game should tell you how hard it is to play well and how valuable players who do excel are. The willingness to gamble is high too because of the value of the passing game: 71 CBs and 77 WRs selected, second and third only to edge rushers (a combo of LBs and DEs). The bust rate for centers is extraordinarily low because a) you shouldn't be taking centers in the first round, and b) if you do, you're probably picking a generational player at that position. 

Huh?

What's the point? I was asked why I didn't favor taking CBs in the first round, not why I didn't favor taking other positions in the first round. Not sure what I'm supposed to do with this. I want 1st round picks to be game changing players, because I'm paying a premium for them both in opportunity cost of the pick, and salary. I don't think elite CBs fall into that category due to their cost, and the nature of modern offenses.

BTW, not an indictment of the player at all. Hopefully he's a great player. Didn't watch any Kentucky games, so no opinion on him.

Edited 14 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[Mango]

11 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I did? Funny, all the Red text showing that they were near the bottom of the hit rate on position led me to conclude otherwise. Weird.

If he didn't play for the Bills he likely would have been out of the league a lot sooner. A McKelvin comp is not high praise, IMO.

 

In regards to McKelvin I was more talking about him as an elite physical prospect vs a finished player in the NFL. 

 

I won't hijack the thread too much to defend McKelvin and I also think Hairston should be better. But...

 

I always thought more teams than not had worse CB2's than McKelvin during that time. In his 8 years with th Bills he was named to the NFL's all rookie team, was top 10 in pass break ups and pick 6's twice, and fumble recoveries and interceptions once. All in different years. Add on his elite skill as a returner and it is a decent NFL career. He just wasn't the guy we hoped.

 

But to bring it back around without derailing. They seem to have elite physiological measuarables, similar size, and similar criticisms/areas in need for improvement. 

[dave mcbride]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Huh?

What's the point? I was asked why I didn't favor taking CBs in the first round, not why I didn't favor taking other positions in the first round. Not sure what I'm supposed to do with this. I want 1st round picks to be game changing players, because I'm paying a premium for them both in opportunity cost of the pick, and salary. I don't think elite CBs fall into that category due to their cost, and the nature of modern offenses.

BTW, not an indictment of the player at all. Hopefully he's a great player. Didn't watch any Kentucky games, so no opinion on him.

What I'm trying to say is that teams take risks on CBs and WRs so often because they're so fundamental to success in the NFL. You can't win with crappy WRs and guys who can't cover. Good ones are of course hard to find, but burying one's head in the sand with the hope you'll get a gem in the fifth/sixth round is no way to live in the modern NFL. Get rich or die tryin', as the saying goes. 

 

A first-round center pick, although highly likely to be successful, is not going to be a game-changing player pretty much ever. An elite cornerback is. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

50 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Here you go: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2024/04/25/first-round-draft-hit-rates-tracking-rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/73449048007

 

One of the riskiest positions

also this: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-what-historical-hit-rates-reveal-about-positional-success
You could have googled it. It should be common knowledge to people who watch a lot of ball.

It's over, he is the pick. Deal with it.

[pi2000]

Don't like the pick. 

 

With the extra picks why not move up a bit for a DT?   There were guys there.   

 

Sure you need a willing dance partner, but this was a draft conducive for dealing. 

 

Whatever.     Would've preferred Jihaad Campbell.... versatile highly productive player.  

 

In Beane I Trust. 

Edited 14 hours ago by pi2000

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, jaybeezee said:

Dont know much about the kid, outside of the fact that he is on the smaller side and has a ton of speed. I have doubts just because of the Elam pick, as he also was better suited for Man Defense as is this kid. 

 

Why does Beane and Mcdermott constantly try and draft players that do not fit our scheme? Unless we are switching to a Man defense, this pick makes very little sense to me.

Hairston played 80% zone in college.  He has the athleticism to play man.  He is a prefect fit for zone match coverage. 

[The Jokeman]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

What I'm trying to say is that teams take risks on CBs and WRs so often because they're so fundamental to success in the NFL. You can't win with crappy WRs and guys who can't cover. Good ones are of course hard to find, but burying one's head in the sand with the hope you'll get a gem in the fifth/sixth round is no way to live in the modern NFL. Get rich or die tryin', as the saying goes. 

 

A first-round center pick, although highly likely to be successful, is not going to be a game-changing player pretty much ever. An elite cornerback is. 

But a 2nd round Center would, at least according to all the posters I see cry when we didn't take Creed Humphrey 😏

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Don't like the pick. 

 

With the extra picks why not move up a bit for a DT?   There were guys there.   

 

Sure you need a willing dance partner, but this was a draft conducive for dealing. 

 

Whatever.     Would've preferred Jihaad Campbell.... versatile highly productive player.  

 

In Beane I Trust. 

ATL gave up a first to move up.   Beane wouldnt do that.  Harman and Grant were too rich.  Imo Williams isnt those guys.  Norman-Lott, Collins, Alexander are all similar imo.  DB was a need.  Filled with arguably the highest rated player without red flags.  2 second rd picks makes Buffalo in play at any point. Dline is deep.  Many have went already.  Also, many teams have already drafted edge and interior lineman.  Odds are high a few good one will be available. 

[Doc Brown]

35 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

So, in other words, they don't have anywhere near an "average" bust rate. 10% is a massive statistical difference.

The study is six years old - so what? You think 2024 will be more kind to your assumptions as offense continues to widen the gap over defense? Did you look at the even more damning PFF data?

I'm not a fan of reaching for a WR in the first round, no. If I'm going to draft one, I want it to be my number #1 or maybe #2 rated WR. I don't want massively flawed/limited players like Coleman in round 1. There's also a big difference in that an elite WR can put points on the board every single play he's on the field where an elite CB, especially in today's game can't hope to take points off that frequently. Even the best CBs get beat, and when they don't, there are 4-5 other players that can beat the lesser quality coverage. If your elite WR is nothing more than a decoy to take away an elite corner, you can still win that way.

No because you edited your post and added the study.  The difference between 1 (92% for center) and 12 (27% for WR) is statistically significant.  All the PFF data showed me is that teams will take more swings on premium positions in the 1st round leading to a higher bust rate than the rare non premium positions where only the best of the best are drafted in the first round.  Plus, even after saying that over 50% of CB's in the PFF article panned out as Day 1 hits. 

 

You kind of lost me when you said that you could find quality starters in the later rounds and used Dane Jackson as an example of this as he was almost dead last in PFF grading last year to the point they just benched him  after week 11.   What's the hit rate on CB's from round 2 to 7 since they are so easy to find?

[jaybeezee]

30 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Hairston played 80% zone in college.  He has the athleticism to play man.  He is a prefect fit for zone match coverage. 

Good stuff! I'm not knocking the kid at all. As I mentioned, I dont know much about the kid except for the the "so called experts" say about him, which was he was a man coverage CB.

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Bad shoulder or not.  He's not a good tackler guys.  Love him in every other area though.

 

 

Thank you for this.

 

it's a good mix and tells a story about him. 1st highlights I have seen yet.

 Mixed success. Stopped the Touch down when on the island !

Willing tackler !

 perhaps a bit anxious ? Can be Coached up for sure.

 Fast to the ball for sure

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Can you find me a regime that has a perfect score and hits 100% of the time?  Did you forget Benford was a 6th round pick the same year and developed into an immediate starter and then into a pretty good CB we just gave a nice 2nd contract too?  

 

This need to hang only the losses and never credit the wins with this regime is something I will never get.  

You are such a homer sometimes 😋 

[Figster]

52 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Feels like a home run, just his character and natural skills, him and Benford could turn out to be 1 of the best tandems in the game

I've been critical about the tackling side of Hariston game. I do agree however with comments suggesting the right coaching can go a long way and just learning to not over pursue and trust more in his God given talent/speed to carry him to the next level. The guy can flat out fly and has the ability to catch most NFL athletes from behind. Something you can't teach.

 

Stop with the over pursuits. Play McD smart football...

[DieHardBillsFan]

3 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

What "pundits" are you talking about saying he was a reach?  He was not going to last into the 2nd rd for us.

 

I have seen charts that had him ranked as low as 7th(example is during onebillsdrive). If that isn't true, then I like the kid and glad we have him. Guess that is all that matters.

[london_bills]

1 hour ago, Low Positive said:

I don't know anything about how this will work out, but I do know that if the Chiefs had drafted the fastest guy at the Combine for the second year in a row this place would be melting down. 

Interesting how KC traded with PHI, haven't heard anyone mention that after the stick Beane took last year

Edited 13 hours ago by london_bills