Bills First Rnd pick in 2025 draft: Maxwell Hairston - CB - Kentucky

[Cash]

8 minutes ago, Figster said:

When you look at some of Hairston's weaknesses like massive liability in run support this pick has allot of red flags IMO. 

 

After watching film I just don't get it.  Fast, but has trouble tracking down the football? Did we draft this guy for his personality?

 

Hate to be such a downer, but when I see some of our most football knowledgeable posters shying away from making any kind of determination on the pick its troubling.

 

Coming from one of the biggest homers on the board...

 

What film did you watch?

 

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Bad shoulder or not.  He's not a good tackler guys.  Love him in every other area though.

 

 

 

I prefer things presented WITH comment,  Here's a TL;DW:

1. Good tackle. Hairston takes perfect position, ballcarrier squares up and tries to truck-stick, Hairston brings him down for a solo tackle.  2-yard gain.
2. Bad tackle.  Hairston takes okay position but gets juked as the ballcarrier is coming through the hole.
3. Good tackle.  Hairston comes up in run support, maintains his gap/assignment instead of chasing after the ball, and the cutback brings the ballcarrier right to him.  Along with a teammate, brings the ballcarrier down for a short gain, and one of them forced a fumble.
4. Bad tackle.  I thought this was gonna be a highlight until the runner juked Hairston out of his shoes.  Hairston came up beautifully to shut down the run; just didn't finish.
5. Good tackle.  Hairston comes up, keeps the runner from getting to the edge, and works in tandem with a teammate to bring the runner down for a short gain.
6. Good tackle.  Receiver is hit almost as soon as he catches the ball and gets 0 RAC.  I don't know if they gave him the first down on forward progress at the moment of the catch, or if they thought the WR was taking himself backwards and marked him short.
7. Bad tackle.  Hairston got himself a bit out of position at the catch and the receiver took advantage.  Hairston had a slim chance at a shoestring tackle but didn't convert.
8. Bad tackle.  Hairston was in the right place at the right time, but got royally stiff-armed.
9. Bad tackle, but not that bad.  Hairston came up for what would've been a really nice stop, and got his hands on the runner, but they slipped off via a spin move.  I rate this not that bad because Hairston still slowed down the runner enough to let a teammate come in and save the TD.
10. Bad tackle.  Hairston was way off the receiver at the catch and overpursued to try to limit RAC.  Receiver made a nice move and burned Hairston.
11. Good tackle.  Great solo tackle in space; ballcarrier never had a chance.  Short gain on the play.
12. Good tackle, but not that good.  Not that good because it was the opposite of #10 above - Hairston waited for the receiver to come to him.  Once he did, Hairston made a nice tackle, but it was like 12 yards down the field.
13. Bad tackle, but not that bad.  Very similar to #4 above, to the point where I had to rewind to make sure it wasn't a repeat.  This one was a little better than #4 because Hairston did get hands on the ballcarrier and impede his progress, which helped his teammates finish the tackle.
14. Good tackle.  Came off his initial man in coverage, picked up the checkdown, and made another nice solo tackle in space.
15. Good tackle.  Receiver was trying hard to get some RAC and Hairston wasn't having it.  Rode the receiver laterally, eventually brought him down with some help from teammates.

So that's 8/15 as good tackles and 7/15 as bad tackles.  Definitely some room for improvement, but not cause for concern IMO.

[GolfandBills]

30 minutes ago, Figster said:

When you look at some of Hairston's weaknesses like massive liability in run support this pick has allot of red flags IMO. 

 

After watching film I just don't get it.  Fast, but has trouble tracking down the football? Did we draft this guy for his personality?

 

Hate to be such a downer, but when I see some of our most football knowledgeable posters shying away from making any kind of determination on the pick its troubling.

 

Coming from one of the biggest homers on the board...

Nobody on this board knows a lick about scouting.  I’ll always side with the professional evaluators.  They aren’t always right but they are the ones being paid tons of money by an NFL team.  

[RichRiderBills]

The way I see it is I said my piece about wanting another guy but now that this guy is a bill it's time to flip a switch and support the him. Hopefully he's a great Bill,  legendary corner and I am totally wrong. 

 

It's also the name of the game for Bill's drafts. The whole draft will tell the big picture and this could be still a great draft. At a minimum we got a cornerback and we needed a cornerback. I don't want to overblow his faults and nickel and dime him to death. 

 

I've been wrong so many times before! 

 

And in beane we trust....

[Doc Brown]

Just now, Cash said:

 

What film did you watch?

 

 

I prefer things presented WITH comment,  Here's a TL;DW:

1. Good tackle. Hairston takes perfect position, ballcarrier squares up and tries to truck-stick, Hairston brings him down for a solo tackle.  2-yard gain.
2. Bad tackle.  Hairston takes okay position but gets juked as the ballcarrier is coming through the hole.
3. Good tackle.  Hairston comes up in run support, maintains his gap/assignment instead of chasing after the ball, and the cutback brings the ballcarrier right to him.  Along with a teammate, brings the ballcarrier down for a short gain, and one of them forced a fumble.
4. Bad tackle.  I thought this was gonna be a highlight until the runner juked Hairston out of his shoes.  Hairston came up beautifully to shut down the run; just didn't finish.
5. Good tackle.  Hairston comes up, keeps the runner from getting to the edge, and works in tandem with a teammate to bring the runner down for a short gain.
6. Good tackle.  Receiver is hit almost as soon as he catches the ball and gets 0 RAC.  I don't know if they gave him the first down on forward progress at the moment of the catch, or if they thought the WR was taking himself backwards and marked him short.
7. Bad tackle.  Hairston got himself a bit out of position at the catch and the receiver took advantage.  Hairston had a slim chance at a shoestring tackle but didn't convert.
8. Bad tackle.  Hairston was in the right place at the right time, but got royally stiff-armed.
9. Bad tackle, but not that bad.  Hairston came up for what would've been a really nice stop, and got his hands on the runner, but they slipped off via a spin move.  I rate this not that bad because Hairston still slowed down the runner enough to let a teammate come in and save the TD.
10. Bad tackle.  Hairston was way off the receiver at the catch and overpursued to try to limit RAC.  Receiver made a nice move and burned Hairston.
11. Good tackle.  Great solo tackle in space; ballcarrier never had a chance.  Short gain on the play.
12. Good tackle, but not that good.  Not that good because it was the opposite of #10 above - Hairston waited for the receiver to come to him.  Once he did, Hairston made a nice tackle, but it was like 12 yards down the field.
13. Bad tackle, but not that bad.  Very similar to #4 above, to the point where I had to rewind to make sure it wasn't a repeat.  This one was a little better than #4 because Hairston did get hands on the ballcarrier and impede his progress, which helped his teammates finish the tackle.
14. Good tackle.  Came off his initial man in coverage, picked up the checkdown, and made another nice solo tackle in space.
15. Good tackle.  Receiver was trying hard to get some RAC and Hairston wasn't having it.  Rode the receiver laterally, eventually brought him down with some help from teammates.

So that's 8/15 as good tackles and 7/15 as bad tackles.  Definitely some room for improvement, but not cause for concern IMO.

There's no perfect prospect available at pick #30.  He's a little undersized and tackling is the weakest part of game.  Tackling is also the one area I care about the least out of a CB prospect.  He checks every other box and could be a home run pick.

[Figster]

29 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

What film did you watch?

 

 

I prefer things presented WITH comment,  Here's a TL;DW:

1. Good tackle. Hairston takes perfect position, ballcarrier squares up and tries to truck-stick, Hairston brings him down for a solo tackle.  2-yard gain.
2. Bad tackle.  Hairston takes okay position but gets juked as the ballcarrier is coming through the hole.
3. Good tackle.  Hairston comes up in run support, maintains his gap/assignment instead of chasing after the ball, and the cutback brings the ballcarrier right to him.  Along with a teammate, brings the ballcarrier down for a short gain, and one of them forced a fumble.
4. Bad tackle.  I thought this was gonna be a highlight until the runner juked Hairston out of his shoes.  Hairston came up beautifully to shut down the run; just didn't finish.
5. Good tackle.  Hairston comes up, keeps the runner from getting to the edge, and works in tandem with a teammate to bring the runner down for a short gain.
6. Good tackle.  Receiver is hit almost as soon as he catches the ball and gets 0 RAC.  I don't know if they gave him the first down on forward progress at the moment of the catch, or if they thought the WR was taking himself backwards and marked him short.
7. Bad tackle.  Hairston got himself a bit out of position at the catch and the receiver took advantage.  Hairston had a slim chance at a shoestring tackle but didn't convert.
8. Bad tackle.  Hairston was in the right place at the right time, but got royally stiff-armed.
9. Bad tackle, but not that bad.  Hairston came up for what would've been a really nice stop, and got his hands on the runner, but they slipped off via a spin move.  I rate this not that bad because Hairston still slowed down the runner enough to let a teammate come in and save the TD.
10. Bad tackle.  Hairston was way off the receiver at the catch and overpursued to try to limit RAC.  Receiver made a nice move and burned Hairston.
11. Good tackle.  Great solo tackle in space; ballcarrier never had a chance.  Short gain on the play.
12. Good tackle, but not that good.  Not that good because it was the opposite of #10 above - Hairston waited for the receiver to come to him.  Once he did, Hairston made a nice tackle, but it was like 12 yards down the field.
13. Bad tackle, but not that bad.  Very similar to #4 above, to the point where I had to rewind to make sure it wasn't a repeat.  This one was a little better than #4 because Hairston did get hands on the ballcarrier and impede his progress, which helped his teammates finish the tackle.
14. Good tackle.  Came off his initial man in coverage, picked up the checkdown, and made another nice solo tackle in space.
15. Good tackle.  Receiver was trying hard to get some RAC and Hairston wasn't having it.  Rode the receiver laterally, eventually brought him down with some help from teammates.

So that's 8/15 as good tackles and 7/15 as bad tackles.  Definitely some room for improvement, but not cause for concern IMO.

Anything I could find online and I don't pretend to be one of our more football knowledgeable posters. Poor tackling just doesn't fit well in the McD D IMO.

 

On a side note I've been very wrong before on Bills DB's. Jabari Greer comes to mind. I was on Greer with critique like stink on s#it. Greer turned out to be a very solid corner in the NFL.

Edited 16 hours ago by Figster

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

He's the same size as Jordan Poyer.

 

You can't just switch just any aging CB to Safety. They need to have the traits of a Safety to make that switch. They need to be good tacklers and good open field tacklers. That is not a strong point in Tre White's game.

[YoloinOhio]

18 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

Nobody on this board knows a lick about scouting.  I’ll always side with the professional evaluators.  They aren’t always right but they are the ones being paid tons of money by an NFL team.  

I think there are some posters who are really smart about talent evaluation and know how to watch film and I trust their opinions but those that get paid by nfl teams to do it as a profession ofc I will lean that way if there is disagreement. That said no one is perfect and nfl teams make scouting errors and drafting errors as it is not an exact science and yeah there is a lot of luck involved too. I think the biggest thing is that teams have so much info on players, that the public just doesn’t have access to. Sometimes that info can shape boards and decisions. 

Edited 16 hours ago by YoloinOhio

[Figster]

24 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

Nobody on this board knows a lick about scouting.  I’ll always side with the professional evaluators.  They aren’t always right but they are the ones being paid tons of money by an NFL team.  

 

 

Be interesting to hear @Rochesterfan evaluation of Hairston pick. (lol, you disagree?)

Edited 16 hours ago by Figster

[SoonerBillsFan]

This is a damn good pick. Anything he is weak on, McDermott will coach up.  You can't teach speed,or the fluidity this kid has in his hips.  And most important, he is a damn good kid that will bust his ass and learn.

[BullBuchanan]

13 hours ago, Low Positive said:

He wasn't drafted early. It was our earliest pick, but by the time he was taken we were into the crapshoot of 2nd-3rd round grades. You have to hope for the best. I wanted a DT but all the best DTs were already gone. At least CB is a premium position. The genius Eagles took a freaking traditional LB one pick after us and they traded a 5th for the right to do that.  Dallas took an OG at 12. This draft sucks. 

30 is early. You can routinely get quality starting CBs in later rounds. Benford was a 6, Jackson was a 7, Douglas was a 3.

They also have supremely high bust rates, and when they don't bust, it's hard to afford to keep them on a second deal. When you draft a 1st round CB, you're often paying them a premium over a solid veteran, and you have no idea what you're getting. We had to pay Elam the same amount that Jackson made going to Carolina. Jackson is far from elite, but he's at least an NFL talent.

By the time their 3rd year comes around, you have to decide if you want to pay them premium money or let them walk. The fact that you need at least 5 competent players at the position just makes it worse. Give me 5 Dane Jacksons over 1 Sauce Gardner and 4 Kaiir Elams

[Simon]

32 minutes ago, Cash said:

I prefer things presented WITH comment,  Here's a TL;DW:

1. Good tackle. Hairston takes perfect position, ballcarrier squares up and tries to truck-stick, Hairston brings him down for a solo tackle.  2-yard gain.
2. Bad tackle.  Hairston takes okay position but gets juked as the ballcarrier is coming through the hole.
3. Good tackle.  Hairston comes up in run support, maintains his gap/assignment instead of chasing after the ball, and the cutback brings the ballcarrier right to him.  Along with a teammate, brings the ballcarrier down for a short gain, and one of them forced a fumble.
4. Bad tackle.  I thought this was gonna be a highlight until the runner juked Hairston out of his shoes.  Hairston came up beautifully to shut down the run; just didn't finish.
5. Good tackle.  Hairston comes up, keeps the runner from getting to the edge, and works in tandem with a teammate to bring the runner down for a short gain.
6. Good tackle.  Receiver is hit almost as soon as he catches the ball and gets 0 RAC.  I don't know if they gave him the first down on forward progress at the moment of the catch, or if they thought the WR was taking himself backwards and marked him short.
7. Bad tackle.  Hairston got himself a bit out of position at the catch and the receiver took advantage.  Hairston had a slim chance at a shoestring tackle but didn't convert.
8. Bad tackle.  Hairston was in the right place at the right time, but got royally stiff-armed.
9. Bad tackle, but not that bad.  Hairston came up for what would've been a really nice stop, and got his hands on the runner, but they slipped off via a spin move.  I rate this not that bad because Hairston still slowed down the runner enough to let a teammate come in and save the TD.
10. Bad tackle.  Hairston was way off the receiver at the catch and overpursued to try to limit RAC.  Receiver made a nice move and burned Hairston.
11. Good tackle.  Great solo tackle in space; ballcarrier never had a chance.  Short gain on the play.
12. Good tackle, but not that good.  Not that good because it was the opposite of #10 above - Hairston waited for the receiver to come to him.  Once he did, Hairston made a nice tackle, but it was like 12 yards down the field.
13. Bad tackle, but not that bad.  Very similar to #4 above, to the point where I had to rewind to make sure it wasn't a repeat.  This one was a little better than #4 because Hairston did get hands on the ballcarrier and impede his progress, which helped his teammates finish the tackle.
14. Good tackle.  Came off his initial man in coverage, picked up the checkdown, and made another nice solo tackle in space.
15. Good tackle.  Receiver was trying hard to get some RAC and Hairston wasn't having it.  Rode the receiver laterally, eventually brought him down with some help from teammates.

So that's 8/15 as good tackles and 7/15 as bad tackles.  Definitely some room for improvement, but not cause for concern IMO.

 

Good breakdown. I might have been slightly more generous; I think there were a couple that looked bad, but he was actually just setting up to turn a ballcarrier back inside.

Overall I'd say when he gets to his spot early and breaks down he is a very reliable tackler, even showing an ability to get his hat on the ball at times. When he's a step late and on the move he has a tendency to flail a little when he has to tackle laterally which results in ineffective arm tackles.

One thing I do like is his ability to wrap and roll; those hawk tackles are a key tool in a CB's arsenal. And it's either instinctual or he's coachable, which are both positive traits.

 

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

30 is early. You can routinely get quality starting CBs in later rounds. Benford was a 6, Jackson was a 7, Douglas was a 3.

They also have supremely high bust rates, and when they don't bust, it's hard to afford to keep them on a second deal. When you draft a 1st round CB, you're often paying them a premium over a solid veteran, and you have no idea what you're getting. We had to pay Elam the same amount that Jackson made going to Carolina. Jackson is far from elite, but he's at least an NFL talent.

By the time their 3rd year comes around, you have to decide if you want to pay them premium money or let them walk. The fact that you need at least 5 competent players at the position just makes it worse. Give me 5 Dane Jacksons over 1 Sauce Gardner and 4 Kaiir Elams

Five Dane Jackson's?  PFF had him ranked 214th of 222 CB's last year.  Carolina couldn't wait to get rid of him.  Also, how is it harder than any other premium position to afford them on a second deal?  I'd also like to see the bust rate of a first round CB compared to other positions.

[BullBuchanan]

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Five Dane Jackson's?  PFF had him ranked 214th of 222 CB's last year.  Carolina couldn't wait to get rid of him.  Also, how is it harder than any other premium position to afford them on a second deal?  I'd also like to see the bust rate of a first round CB compared to other positions.

Here you go: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2024/04/25/first-round-draft-hit-rates-tracking-rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/73449048007

 

One of the riskiest positions

also this: https://www.pff.com/news/draft-what-historical-hit-rates-reveal-about-positional-success
You could have googled it. It should be common knowledge to people who watch a lot of ball.

Edited 16 hours ago by BullBuchanan

[Roundybout]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Five Dane Jackson's?  PFF had him ranked 214th of 222 CB's last year.  Carolina couldn't wait to get rid of him.  Also, how is it harder than any other premium position to afford them on a second deal?  I'd also like to see the bust rate of a first round CB compared to other positions.

Glad you said this. I’m worried we’re going to fall back into the trap of overhyping these mediocre cornerbacks just because they were late rounders, a la Nickell Robey/Levi Wallace/Dane Jackson/Cam Lewis 

[Doc Brown]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Here you go: https://draftwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2024/04/25/first-round-draft-hit-rates-tracking-rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/73449048007

 

One of the riskiest positions

You could have googled it. It should be common knowledge to people who watch a lot of ball.

So you just proved they have an average bust rate compared to other positions.  Congratulations.

[Mango]

I'm not the draft guru that others are on this board. But going through YouTube, these comments, and a bunch of prospect profiles and I the only one who thinks he reminds me of....

 

Leodis McKelvin

 

Tremendous athleticism. Can run with anybody and everybody. On the small-ish side. Needs to get stronger. Sometimes trouble tracking the ball.

 

I was a McKelvin fan btw. He played 9 years. Good cover corner who struggled to track the ball at times but almost never got beat. Not a world beater but a decent starter in the NFL. With the 11th pick everybody wanted a Nate Clements replacement. We got a solid starting outside corner. If McKelvin were picked 30th people would have viewed him differently. (Aside from that kickoff he fumbled)

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, Doc Brown said:

So you just proved they have an average bust rate compared to other positions.  Congratulations.

I did? Funny, all the Red text showing that they were near the bottom of the hit rate on position led me to conclude otherwise. Weird.

1 minute ago, Mango said:

I'm not the draft guru that others are on this board. But going through YouTube, these comments, and a bunch of prospect profiles and I the only one who thinks he reminds me of....

 

Leodis McKelvin

 

Tremendous athleticism. Can run with anybody and everybody. On the small-ish side. Needs to get stronger. Sometimes trouble tracking the ball.

 

I was a McKelvin fan btw. He played 9 years. Good cover corner who struggled to track the ball at times but almost never got beat. Not a world beater but a decent starter in the NFL. With the 11th pick everybody wanted a Nate Clements replacement. We got a solid starting outside corner. If McKelvin were picked 30th people would have viewed him differently. (Aside from that kickoff he fumbled)

 

 

If he didn't play for the Bills he likely would have been out of the league a lot sooner. A McKelvin comp is not high praise, IMO.

[C.Biscuit97]

44 minutes ago, GolfandBills said:

Nobody on this board knows a lick about scouting.  I’ll always side with the professional evaluators.  They aren’t always right but they are the ones being paid tons of money by an NFL team.  

Eh. There are plenty of idiots who make terrible decisions in the nfl who got their jobs because they are friends or related to the right people.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I did? Funny, all the Red text showing that they were near the bottom of the hit rate on position led me to conclude otherwise. Weird.

If he didn't play for the Bills he likely would have been out of the league a lot sooner. A McKelvin comp is not high praise, IMO.

He’s already light years ahead of Leodis in that he can form a complete coherent sentence.

[Doc Brown]

10 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

I did? Funny, all the Red text showing that they were near the bottom of the hit rate on position led me to conclude otherwise. Weird.

If he didn't play for the Bills he likely would have been out of the league a lot sooner. A McKelvin comp is not high praise, IMO.

They were 8th of 12th position wise in terms of hit ranked.  The 4th of 12th position wise being only 10% higher.  This study was also done six years ago.  I'm guessing you're a never draft a WR in the 1st round guy since they were dead last in hit rate.

Edited 16 hours ago by Doc Brown