All Gunner's Draft Stuff.... 2025 Edition!!!

[GunnerBill]

And so we have arrived on the doorstep of the 2025 NFL Draft. The excellent @Virgil mock drafts are done and in the book, the arguments about the merits of drafting a corner in round one have been had and now it is almost time for the speculation to stop and the Commissioner to formally put the Tennessee Titans on the clock. I think we know where they are going and we probably know where the next three picks after that are going too, but from there unpredictability could reign. It promises to be an interesting three days.

 

I've been doing these pre-draft compendium threads for a few years now and while one of my regular pre-draft features, my Quarterback evaluations, is missing this year - just ran out of time - we do have the addition of the Gunner and Gonzo collab mock podcast which seems to have gone down well since we posted on Tuesday. I have graded 142 players this year for the board... probably watched at least some film of about 190 or so... but done enough work on 142 to be happy with them on the board. Just a general reflection on this draft at the start. I think it is one of the weaker first rounds we have seen - certainly at the top of round one. There is a group of 3/4 players (I have Mason Graham sort of clinging onto that group others have him lower) at the very top, a few with mid first round type grades and then a bulk of late firsts and early seconds. And that depth goes on. I think rounds 2 to 4 it is a reasonably good draft. It just lacks the star power at the top. 

 

So to break it down in more detail.... here are links to the products already published on the board:

 

My 2025 Draft Sleepers

Gunner and Gonzo Collab Mock Draft Podcast 2025

My final 2025 Mock Draft

 

The new content for this thread is:

 

A full list of my 15 first round grades

Analysis of my top 100

My positional 'Top 5s'

 

[Key: * denotes medical concern; ^ denotes potential off-field / behavioural concern]

 

First Round Grades:

1. Travis Hunter, CB/WR, Colorado

2. Abdul Carter, DE, Penn State

3. Ashton Jeanty, RB, Boise State

4. Mason Graham, DT, Michigan

5. Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas

6. Kelvin Banks Jnr, OT, Texas

7. Malaki Starks, S, Georgia

8. Jalon Walker, DE/LB, Georgia

9. Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona

10. James Pearce Jnr^, DE, Tennessee

11. Walter Nolan^, DT, Ole Miss

12. Will Campbell, OT, LSU

13. Mike Green, DE^, Marshall

14. Will Johnson*, CB, Michigan

15. Jihaad Campbell*, LB, Alabama

 

I also then have four 1st/2nd round borderline grades. They are: 16. Cam Ward, QB, Miami; 17. Armand Membou, OT, Missouri; 18. Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State; 19. Shavon Revel*, CB, East Carolina.

 

 

Analysis of the top 100:

Here is the positional breakdown of my top 100:-

 

Quarterback: 5

Running Back: 7

Tight End: 5

Wide Receiver: 12

Offensive Tackle: 9

Interior Offensive Line: 7

Total offensive players: 45

 

Interior Defensive Line: 13

Edge Rusher: 18

Linebacker: 5

Corner: 13

Safety: 6

Total defensive players: 55

 

Strengths and Weaknesses of the top 100:

It is overall a slightly better defensive draft than offensive draft largely influenced by the fact that, it is no secret by this point, the strength of this draft is the defensive line group. THIRTY ONE of my top 100 are defensive linemen. The edge class is pretty consistent throughout. I have four first round grades, seven second round grades, five third round grades and then another batch in the fourth. Defensive tackle is more of a bulge in the second round, it does thin out a bit after that before rebounding a bit later. A lot has also been said about this running back class and the tight end group. I like both although because of positional value my top 100 doesn't necessarily scream that. I have seven running backs in my top 100 but then six more guys after that that I have 4th round grades on. I have five tight ends in the top 100, still an increase from just three last year, and all five are in the top 75 with then a small batch just outside. I always say tight end classes seem to go in odd years. This is a decent year after a really thin group in 2024.

 

It is weaker at Quarterback that's no secret I have only watched five guys in enough detail to grade them and while all five are in the top 100, I think Ward is the only one with both a solid floor and a reasonable ceiling. Shedeur Sanders has a solid floor but I think his ceiling is capable game manager style starter, Jaxon Dart has a high ceiling but his decision making terrifies me at times... like Will Levis level terrifying... Jalen Milroe is a guy I think you take and commit to sitting and letting your QB coach work with him for almost an entire year before you put him near an NFL field and Quinn Ewers I like as a backup with some moxie but his accuracy is spotty - Gardner Minshew is kinda my pro comp for him. It's another weaker group at off-ball linebacker too. I feel like that is increasingly becoming the most scheme specific position in pro football. Beyond the physical freaks - like Jihaad Campbell at the top of this class - it's guys who are great college players but don't necessarily scream pro level athletes or a bunch of athletes you've gotta teach to play the position. 

 

As I said at the top, while overall this is a weaker first round, I can see a lot of guys who get selected day 2 and early day 3 in this draft being really good NFL players for a long time. Wouldn't surprise me if when you look back at this draft in 4 to 5 years time the pro bowlers and all pros that came out of it came as much from rounds two through four as round one. A team like Seattle - five picks between #18 and #92 is in prime position to refresh its roster in the 2025 NFL Draft. 

 

 

Positional Top 5s:

(round I have them graded in parenthesis) 

 

Quarterback

1. Cam Ward, Miami (1st/2nd)

2. Shedeur Sanders, Colorado (2nd)

3. Jaxon Dart, Ole Miss (2nd/3rd)

4. Jalen Milroe (3rd)

5. Quinn Ewers (3rd/4th)

(caveat, these are the only five QBs I'd watched enough to grade)

 

Running Back

1. Ashton Jeanty, Boise State (1st)

2. Omarion Hampton, UNC (2nd)

3. TreVeyon Henderson, Ohio State (2nd)

4. Cam Skattebo, Arizona State (3rd)

5. DJ Giddens, Kansas State (3rd)

 

Wide Receiver

1. Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona (1st)

2. Matthew Golden, Texas (2nd)

3. Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State (2nd)

4. Luther Burden III, Missouri (2nd)

5. Isaiah Bond^, Texas (2nd) 

 

Tight End

1. Tyler Warren, Penn State (1st/2nd)

2. Colston Loveland, Michigan (2nd)

3. Mason Taylor, LSU (2nd)

4. Harold Fannin, Bowling Green (3rd)

5. Elijah Arroyo, Miami (3rd)

 

Offensive Tackle

1. Kelvin Banks Jnr, Texas (1st)

2. Will Campbell, LSU (1st)

3. Armand Membou, Missouri (1st/2nd)

4. Josh Simmons*, Ohio State (2nd)

5. Josh Conerly Jnr, Oregon (2nd)

 

Interior Offensive Line

1. Grey Zabel, North Dakota State (2nd)

2. Tyler Booker, Alabama (2nd)

3. Donovan Jackson, Ohio State (2nd)

4. Marcus Mbow, Purdue (2nd)

5. Wyatt Milum, West Virginia (3rd)

 

Interior Defensive Line

1. Mason Graham, Michigan (1st)

2. Walter Nolan^, Ole Miss (1st)

3. Derrick Harmon*, Oregon (2nd)

4. Kenneth Grant, Michigan (2nd)

5. TJ Sanders, South Carolina (2nd)

 

EDGE

1. Abdul Carter, Penn State (1st)

2. Jalon Walker, Georgia (1st)

3. James Pearce Jnr^, Tennessee (1st)

4. Mike Green^, Marshall (1st)

5. Nic Scourton, Texas A&M (2nd)

 

Linebacker

1. Jihaad Campbell*, Alabama (1st)

2. Carson Schwesinger, UCLA (2nd)

3. Demetrius Knight Jnr, South Carolina (2nd/3rd)

4. Danny Stutsman, Oklahoma (3rd)

5. Barrett Carter, Clemson (4th)

 

Corner

1. Travis Hunter, Colorado (1st)

2. Jahdae Barron, Texas (1st)

3. Will Johnson*, Michigan (1st)

4. Shavon Revel*, East Carolina (1st/2nd)

5. Trey Amos, Ole Miss (2nd)

 

Safety

1. Malaki Starks, Georgia (1st)

2. Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina (2nd)

3. Xavier Watts, Notre Dame (2nd)

4. Kevin Winston*, Penn State (3rd)

5. Andrew Mukuba, Texas (3rd)

 

 

Final thoughts

When you look at those top fives the other thing that stands out is a total of ten players with either an injury or off field character flag. We will see how that affects things, especially in the first round, this evening. My sense is the guys where it is really going to make a difference in terms of character are Isaiah Bond and to a lesser extent Mike Green where there are concrete accusations of behaviour that would be criminal if substantiated. On the injuries, I don't get the sense there is a Justin Ross or a Carson Strong level injury here where a guy who could go day two goes undrafted but guys like Simmons, Revel and possibly Campbell who might miss a chunk of, if not all, their rookie training camp will be crossing their fingers that it doesn't cost them in the draft, and ultimately in their pockets. I normally try and predict a shock guy here who we haven't heard much as a potential pick in round one but could sneak in and for me it is probably Mason Taylor, the tight end from LSU or TreVeyon Henderson the Ohio State running back. In terms of surprise fallers I say in my mock draft that Tyler Booker slipping out of round one is a definite possibility, I also think Malaki Starks is an outside bet for the surprise faller. Just happens so often to safeties. If Starks does fall you can bet he would hear his name called very early on day two when the NFL has a night to reflect on its own idiocy.  

 

That's it from me for now, a lot of hours of prep for this draft done and dusted. I'll be in the draft thread as we go tonight (please no pick tipping 🙄) and then back tomorrow morning with my day 1 debrief - including scoring my final mock - for you to read with your morning coffee. Enjoy day 1 folks, the time is now!

[Bray Wyatt]

Is Hairston #6 for CB's then I take it?

 

And what seperates him and Amos in your mind?

Edited 2 hours ago by Bray Wyatt

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

Is Hairston #6 for CB's then I take it?

 

And what seperates him and Amos in your mind?

 

Yes. Hariston and Amos are right there together for me. I have Amos a smidge ahead. Honestly I think his tape is a bit more consistent. That maturity that he has as a slightly older guy shows up both physically and mentally. He makes fewer mental errors. Hariston has some things you still want him to clean up in terms of his eye discipline, his processing speed and you want want him to get a little bit thicker to hold up against the bigger receivers he will see in the NFL. I wouldn't be mad with either one at #30.

[Ray Stonada]

I have a question for ya, Gunner.

 

I feel like CBs have a very high value to teams, higher than I intuitively would have thought. Obviously the way the passing game and wide receivers dominated for a long time, they became more important.

 

But now that teams seem to be shifting back towards power run games, do you think we will see WRs and CBs start to lose relative value, and RBs and LBs gain?

[BigAl2526]

Your first and second round players total 44 players including some borderline 2nd/3rd round picks.  That means that more third round values will be drafted in the second round than second round values.  

[BringBackFergy]

@Moderator Please have @GunnerBill link my draft analysis to this thread or merge with mine. He obviously compiled much (if not all) of his “data” from my work. 

[billsfan714]

Whoever gets TreVeyon Henderson is going to be very happy.

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, BringBackFergy said:

@Moderator Please have @GunnerBill link my draft analysis to this thread or merge with mine. He obviously compiled much (if not all) of his “data” from my work. 

 

I hacked into your huge board. It's the hugest.

[balln]

You have Skateboo ahead of blue rb from Texas? !?!

 

blue gonna be a way bettter nfl player 

[Maine-iac]

In your opinion if Amos isn't there but Revel is do you think they still sit and pick Revel?  I wouldn't be upset with that pick either.

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

Your first and second round players total 44 players including some borderline 2nd/3rd round picks.  That means that more third round values will be drafted in the second round than second round values.  

 

That's only the ones that make the top 5s. There are 2nd rounders that don't. 

 

I have 15 firsts,

4 borderline first / seconds,

35 seconds,

3 borderline second / thirds. 

 

I make that 57 guys. 64 spots. 

 

By the end of round 3 the gap grows by 1 because of all the comp picks.... I have 94 guys with at least a 3rd/4th borderline grade and there are 102 picks up to that point. 

 

It varies year to year but that is kind of always the case. The gap between the number of true first round grades and actual first round picks even in a strong first round year is typically 10 to 15. Then you claw it back a bit as you go and the draft fills out a bit.

 

 

11 minutes ago, balln said:

You have Skateboo ahead of blue rb from Texas? !?!

 

blue gonna be a way bettter nfl player 

 

Ha I have quite a few running backs ahead of Jaydon Blue. He is my RB10. Don't like his vision. He misses too many holes at the line and guys who know my criteria for backs vision is big. He also puts the ball on the ground too much both fumbles and drops. I think he is an RB2 in the NFL and his lack of ability in pass pro makes that tricky too. I like his speed and I like his feet. He has good quick feet to change direction.

 

8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

In your opinion if Amos isn't there but Revel is do you think they still sit and pick Revel?  I wouldn't be upset with that pick either.

 

I wouldn't be upset with Revel. They have just never drafted a guy early with an injury red flag.

Edited 1 hour ago by GunnerBill

[Lost]

Does your draft grades mean the Bills could trade back into the 2nd and still land Kenneth Grant?   I find that scenario highly unlikely since the Bills are kinda drafting for major needs at those positions and more likely to reach for a guy instead of rolling the dice on a move back.  

[Turbo44]

With 10 picks in the draft (too many) I’m convinced Beane is trading up. Targets:

 

Teams to watch for a tradeup with

 

15 ATL they only have 5 picks in draft

 

21 PIT next pick after 21 is 83 and they want a QB

 

24 MIN only 4 total picks and next one after 24 is 97

[Ralonzo]

4 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

With 10 picks in the draft (too many) I’m convinced Beane is trading up. Targets:

 

Teams to watch for a tradeup with

 

15 ATL they only have 5 picks in draft

 

21 PIT next pick after 21 is 83 and they want a QB

 

24 MIN only 4 total picks and next one after 24 is 97

 

It doesn't matter how many picks they own, it's how much value they have. You can pack up everything after 132 and hardly improve the 1st or 2nd round picks. I'd keep those later picks as an incentive to individual scouts to go to bat for a guy they're sold on as being slept on, as often happens in these drafts. Beane isn't omniscient on every prospect but the guys who went to the pro days and interviewed and sifted through the game tapes, they may have an insight, which is what you're paying them for. It's kinda what we're doing on the internet too, trying to find that haystack needle.

[Turbo44]

3 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

It doesn't matter how many picks they own, it's how much value they have. You can pack up everything after 132 and hardly improve the 1st or 2nd round picks. I'd keep those later picks as an incentive to individual scouts to go to bat for a guy they're sold on as being slept on, as often happens in these drafts. Beane isn't omniscient on every prospect but the guys who went to the pro days and interviewed and sifted through the game tapes, they may have an insight, which is what you're paying them for. It's kinda what we're doing on the internet too, trying to find that haystack needle.

Fair

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Lost said:

Does your draft grades mean the Bills could trade back into the 2nd and still land Kenneth Grant?   I find that scenario highly unlikely since the Bills are kinda drafting for major needs at those positions and more likely to reach for a guy instead of rolling the dice on a move back.  

 

First off, I don't think the Bills are going to draft Kenneth Grant. But as it happens he is the 30th best player on my big board. I think there is a chance you could slide back to the early 30s in round 2 and get Grant. But equally he could be off the board before our 1st round pick (and indeed is in my mock). As @gonzo1105 and I discussed the other day he is one of a number of dudes in this draft with a pretry wide window in terms of where he can go.

[gonzo1105]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

First off, I don't think the Bills are going to draft Kenneth Grant. But as it happens he is the 30th best player on my big board. I think there is a chance you could slide back to the early 30s in round 2 and get Grant. But equally he could be off the board before our 1st round pick (and indeed is in my mock). As @gonzo1105 and I discussed the other day he is one of a number of dudes in this draft with a pretry wide window in terms of where he can go.

Yea I agree with all of this. If Grant gets beyond 22 and the Chargers it’s very possible he’s in for a very large tumble. I suppose the Lions at 28 and maybe the Chiefs at 31 could be in play but then you start looking into the 30s and 40s for a spot 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yea I agree with all of this. If Grant gets beyond 22 and the Chargers it’s very possible he’s in for a very large tumble. I suppose the Lions at 28 and maybe the Chiefs at 31 could be in play but then you start looking into the 30s and 40s for a spot 

 

I'm only just getting to Beane's presser. Just heard him talking about defensive tackles. He just said even a DT who is so dominant against the run that everyone in the stadium knows it is still less valuable than a DT who can get you 4 or 5 sacks. Let that be the end of the Bills drafting a big fat space eater talk 😁

 

(To be clear I think Grant is more the 2 and a half down player Beane was talking about who can at leadt condense the pocket and get some clean up stuff on 3rd down, but it does show you where they are on "run stuffing DTs" and it is not where many fans are.)

[Ethan in Cleveland]

25 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

With 10 picks in the draft (too many) I’m convinced Beane is trading up. Targets:

 

Teams to watch for a tradeup with

 

15 ATL they only have 5 picks in draft

 

21 PIT next pick after 21 is 83 and they want a QB

 

24 MIN only 4 total picks and next one after 24 is 97

Agree with Gunner there are probably only 15 guys with first round grades. Would be unwise to move up for a second round talent. Only upside is the 5th year option. 

Best to stack picks in round 2-5 and trade away some picks to move around in those rounds or get some picks in 2026.