Using Beane’s past 7 drafts to try and predict 2025 picks

[GASabresIUFan]

13 hours ago, LEBills said:

Beane has now run 7 drafts for the Bills and has shown some very clear trends. By following history, we can try and predict the Bills draft class. For all pre-draft info, I used this running article: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2025/04/nfl-draft-2025-buffalo-bills-pre-draft-visitors-zoom-meetings-and-private-workout-tracker.html?outputType=amp (thank you @RyanTalbotBills)

 

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

Pick 56: Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State

The Bills second pick in the draft has been a top 30 visit 3 out of 5 eligible years. None have been recovering from a major injury. And all of them had multiple years of production.

Other players that fit: DT TJ Sanders, CB Jacob Parrish, WR Jaylin Royals

 

Pick 62: Jacob Parrish, CB, Kansas State

Zoom meetings have also become important to the Bills scouting as both Dalton Kincaid and Cole Bishop only had zoom meetings with the Bills. Parrish is the one zoom meeting player we know of that matches this range.

Other players that fit this mold: DT Joshua Farmer

 

Pick 109 and 132 *Traded* Kevin Winston, S, PSU

Over the past 7 drafts the Bills have only selected in the 4th round 3 times. They have always had at least one third round pick in each draft. The third round is generally where they draft players in positions that will have openings the following year. Additionally, all the PSU defenders were coached in 2023 by McDermotts close friend Manny Diaz of which we have drafted three former players.

Other players that fit the mold: S Jaylen Reed, S Billy Bowman, LB Chris Paul Jr., G Charles Grant

 

Pick 169 - Arian Smith, WR, Georgia

The fifth round is where the Bills top 30 visits become more relevant again. Twice has a top 30 visit been selected in the fifth round. In addition, Georgia is tied for the second most selections in the Beane regime - 3 times - each time being an offensive player. In addition to being a deep threat (with terrible hands), Smith is excellent on special teams which will be needed to make the roster.

 

Pick 170 and 173 - DT Cam Jackson/CB Jason Marshall Jr/ LB Shemar James/WR Elijhah Badger

Florida is the team that the Bills have drafted the most players from with 4 selections since 2019. They have an intriguing DT, CB, LB and deep threat/kick returning WR in this draft

 

Pick 177 and 206 - CB “Ice” Waxter/ WR Keandre Lambert-Smith/WR Monaray Baldwin

8 of 12 sixth round picks since 2018 have been used on either DBs or WRs. With another Villanova DB available late and a need for speedy receivers, it may go this type of way.

Commentary:

This is certainly not my ideal mock draft (I’ll add that to the mock draft thread the morning of the draft) and from pick 62 on I could have included many other alternate players. This is just trying to look at the past to predict the future as best as possible in the wacky world of the draft. If you have noticed any other tendencies I did not mention, please let me know. 

 

I wasn't sure what to expect when I saw the thread title, but this is very well done.  What an interesting approach to trying to read into Beane's thought process when drafting.  ChatGPT couldn't have done a better job.

13 hours ago, LEBills said:

Pick 169 - Arian Smith, WR, Georgia

The fifth round is where the Bills top 30 visits become more relevant again. Twice has a top 30 visit been selected in the fifth round. In addition, Georgia is tied for the second most selections in the Beane regime - 3 times - each time being an offensive player. In addition to being a deep threat (with terrible hands), Smith is excellent on special teams which will be needed to make the roster.

 

I obviously watch plenty of GA football.  Arian has (had?) a concentration problem rather than terrible hands.  He improved significantly last season with the Dawgs and had by far his best season catching the football and being a difference maker.  I'd love to see him join the Bills.  

Edited yesterday at 06:21 PM by GASabresIUFan

[BillsFan130]

26 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I think they picked Kincaid because it was talked about all off season Brady wanting to run 12 personnel.

I think you meant to say Dorsey as he was the OC still in 2023. But ya, Dorsey wanted to run 12 so it aligns with what you're saying 

[blacklabel]

30 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I think they picked Kincaid because it was talked about all off season Brady wanting to run 12 personnel.

 

I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure Josh had expressed to them that he wanted Kincaid to be the pick. And last year it was said that Keon was Josh's top choice as well. 

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, nosejob said:

I think they picked Kincaid because it was talked about all off season Brady wanting to run 12 personnel.

 

You are thinking of Ken Dorsey (who was the OC at the start of the year).  But I'm not really buying that.

 

Dorsey didn't run much 12 the previous season, and then still didn't have a plan to fully utilize both TEs in the first half of 2023 before he was fired.  And even now when Brady goes heavy, it's usually a 6th O-Lineman instead of a second TE.  The Bills have never had a grand strategy to get both Kincaid and Dawson Knox heavily involved at the same time.

 

Combine that with the contract Knox got the previous September, I just think Kincaid was more of "Plan B" on draft day, rather than Beane's primary target.  And unfortunately, that's how premium draft selections get wasted.

 

[nosejob]

Just now, mjt328 said:

 

You are thinking of Ken Dorsey (who was the OC at the start of the year).  But I'm not really buying that.

 

Dorsey didn't run much 12 the previous season, and then still didn't have a plan to fully utilize both TEs in the first half of 2023 before he was fired.  And even now when Brady goes heavy, it's usually a 6th O-Lineman instead of a second TE.  The Bills have never had a grand strategy to get both Kincaid and Dawson Knox heavily involved at the same time.

 

Combine that with the contract Knox got the previous September, I just think Kincaid was more of "Plan B" on draft day, rather than Beane's primary target.  And unfortunately, that's how premium draft selections get wasted.

 

Beane drafts for need every year. This year we need DT and Corner. He has enough bodies at Corner so I bet we're going DT first. And I think it's the only position he'll trade up for. If we have to jump Wash. and/ or  Detroit so be it. We also can't sit and hope our pick gets past KC and Philly. Corner can wait a sec.

[GASabresIUFan]

@LEBills

All those Gators are clearly keeping us from winning the big one.  We need players from teams that actually win big games - GA, Bama, OSU, and Mich.

 

The Eagles had on their roster this season  5 guys who played for Bama, 5 Bulldawgs, 3 Wolverines and 1 Buckeye. 

We had 4 Bama, 3 Dawgs, and 1 Buckeye.  We also have 3 UB Bulls.

[LEBills]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I wasn't sure what to expect when I saw the thread title, but this is very well done.  What an interesting approach to trying to read into Beane's thought process when drafting.  ChatGPT couldn't have done a better job.

 

I obviously watch plenty of GA football.  Arian has (had?) a concentration problem rather than terrible hands.  He improved significantly last season with the Dawgs and had by far his best season catching the football and being a difference maker.  I'd love to see him join the Bills.  

That’s good to hear. Smith did not make my list to watch this year and the GA Reddit did not seem very sad about him declaring for the draft. But of all my predictions here, Arian Smith to the Bills is the one that I’m most confident in.

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

@LEBills

All those Gators are clearly keeping us from winning the big one.  We need players from teams that actually win big games - GA, Bama, OSU, and Mich.

 

The Eagles had on their roster this season  5 guys who played for Bama, 5 Bulldawgs, 3 Wolverines and 1 Buckeye. 

We had 4 Bama, 3 Dawgs, and 1 Buckeye.  We also have 3 UB Bulls.

 

All those Gators and only Cybo is still on the team…Buffalo loves an underbull story!

Edited yesterday at 07:28 PM by LEBills

[nosejob]

54 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

@LEBills

All those Gators are clearly keeping us from winning the big one.  We need players from teams that actually win big games - GA, Bama, OSU, and Mich.

 

The Eagles had on their roster this season  5 guys who played for Bama, 5 Bulldawgs, 3 Wolverines and 1 Buckeye. 

We had 4 Bama, 3 Dawgs, and 1 Buckeye.  We also have 3 UB Bulls.

As a rule I would say draft all SEC.  and UB