Using Beane’s past 7 drafts to try and predict 2025 picks

[LEBills]

Beane has now run 7 drafts for the Bills and has shown some very clear trends. By following history, we can try and predict the Bills draft class. For all pre-draft info, I used this running article: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2025/04/nfl-draft-2025-buffalo-bills-pre-draft-visitors-zoom-meetings-and-private-workout-tracker.html?outputType=amp (thank you @RyanTalbotBills)

 

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

Pick 56: Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State

The Bills second pick in the draft has been a top 30 visit 3 out of 5 eligible years. None have been recovering from a major injury. And all of them had multiple years of production.

Other players that fit: DT TJ Sanders, CB Jacob Parrish, WR Jaylin Royals

 

Pick 62: Jacob Parrish, CB, Kansas State

Zoom meetings have also become important to the Bills scouting as both Dalton Kincaid and Cole Bishop only had zoom meetings with the Bills. Parrish is the one zoom meeting player we know of that matches this range.

Other players that fit this mold: DT Joshua Farmer

 

Pick 109 and 132 *Traded* Kevin Winston, S, PSU

Over the past 7 drafts the Bills have only selected in the 4th round 3 times. They have always had at least one third round pick in each draft. The third round is generally where they draft players in positions that will have openings the following year. Additionally, all the PSU defenders were coached in 2023 by McDermotts close friend Manny Diaz of which we have drafted three former players.

Other players that fit the mold: S Jaylen Reed, S Billy Bowman, LB Chris Paul Jr., G Charles Grant

 

Pick 169 - Arian Smith, WR, Georgia

The fifth round is where the Bills top 30 visits become more relevant again. Twice has a top 30 visit been selected in the fifth round. In addition, Georgia is tied for the second most selections in the Beane regime - 3 times - each time being an offensive player. In addition to being a deep threat (with terrible hands), Smith is excellent on special teams which will be needed to make the roster.

 

Pick 170 and 173 - DT Cam Jackson/CB Jason Marshall Jr/ LB Shemar James/WR Elijhah Badger

Florida is the team that the Bills have drafted the most players from with 4 selections since 2019. They have an intriguing DT, CB, LB and deep threat/kick returning WR in this draft

 

Pick 177 and 206 - CB “Ice” Waxter/ WR Keandre Lambert-Smith/WR Monaray Baldwin

8 of 12 sixth round picks since 2018 have been used on either DBs or WRs. With another Villanova DB available late and a need for speedy receivers, it may go this type of way.

Commentary:

This is certainly not my ideal mock draft (I’ll add that to the mock draft thread the morning of the draft) and from pick 62 on I could have included many other alternate players. This is just trying to look at the past to predict the future as best as possible in the wacky world of the draft. If you have noticed any other tendencies I did not mention, please let me know. 

 

Edited Tuesday at 04:59 AM by LEBills

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, LEBills said:

Beane has now run 7 drafts for the Bills and has shown some very clear trends. By following history, we can try and predict the Bills draft class. For all pre-draft info, I used this running article: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2025/04/nfl-draft-2025-buffalo-bills-pre-draft-visitors-zoom-meetings-and-private-workout-tracker.html?outputType=amp (thank you @RyanTalbotBills)

 

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

Pick 56: Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State

The Bills second pick in the draft has been a top 30 visit 3 out of 5 eligible years. None have been recovering from a major injury. And all of them had multiple years of production.

Other players that fit: DT TJ Sanders, CB Jacob Parrish, WR Jaylin Royals

 

Pick 62: Jacob Parrish, CB, Kansas State

Zoom meetings have also become important to the Bills scouting as both Dalton Kincaid and Cole Bishop only had zoom meetings with the Bills. Parrish is the one zoom meeting player we know of that matches this range.

Other players that fit this mold: DT Joshua Farmer

 

Pick 109 and 132 *Traded* Kevin Winston, S, PSU

Over the past 7 drafts the Bills have only selected in the 4th round 3 times. They have always had at least one third round pick in each draft. The third round is generally where they draft players in positions that will have openings the following year. Additionally, all the PSU defenders were coached in 2023 by McDermotts close friend Manny Diaz of which we have drafted three former players.

Other players that fit the mold: S Jaylen Reed, S Billy Bowman, LB Chris Paul Jr., G Charles Grant

 

Pick 169 - Arian Smith, WR, Georgia

The fifth round is where the Bills top 30 visits become more relevant again. Twice has a top 30 visit been selected in the fifth round. In addition, Georgia is tied for the second most selections in the Beane regime - 3 times - each time being an offensive player. In addition to being a deep threat (with terrible hands), Smith is excellent on special teams which will be needed to make the roster.

 

Pick 170 and 173 - DT Cam Jackson/CB Jason Marshall Jr/ LB Shemar James/WR Elijhah Badger

Florida is the team that the Bills have drafted the most players from with 4 selections since 2019. They have an intriguing DT, CB, LB and deep threat/kick returning WR in this draft

 

Pick 177 and 206 - CB “Ice” Waxter/ WR Keandre Lambert-Smith/WR Monaray Baldwin

8 of 12 sixth round picks since 2018 have been used on either DBs or WRs. With another Villanova DB available late and a need for speedy receivers, it may go this type of way.

Commentary:

This is certainly not my ideal mock draft (I’ll add that to the mock draft thread the morning of the draft) and from pick 62 on I could have included many other alternate players. This is just trying to look at the past to predict the future as best as possible in the wacky world of the draft. If you have noticed any other tendencies I did not mention, please let me know. 

 

Very interesting - nice analysis.

[mannc]

4 hours ago, LEBills said:

Beane has now run 7 drafts for the Bills and has shown some very clear trends. By following history, we can try and predict the Bills draft class. For all pre-draft info, I used this running article: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2025/04/nfl-draft-2025-buffalo-bills-pre-draft-visitors-zoom-meetings-and-private-workout-tracker.html?outputType=amp (thank you @RyanTalbotBills)

 

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

Pick 56: Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State

The Bills second pick in the draft has been a top 30 visit 3 out of 5 eligible years. None have been recovering from a major injury. And all of them had multiple years of production.

Other players that fit: DT TJ Sanders, CB Jacob Parrish, WR Jaylin Royals

 

Pick 62: Jacob Parrish, CB, Kansas State

Zoom meetings have also become important to the Bills scouting as both Dalton Kincaid and Cole Bishop only had zoom meetings with the Bills. Parrish is the one zoom meeting player we know of that matches this range.

Other players that fit this mold: DT Joshua Farmer

 

Pick 109 and 132 *Traded* Kevin Winston, S, PSU

Over the past 7 drafts the Bills have only selected in the 4th round 3 times. They have always had at least one third round pick in each draft. The third round is generally where they draft players in positions that will have openings the following year. Additionally, all the PSU defenders were coached in 2023 by McDermotts close friend Manny Diaz of which we have drafted three former players.

Other players that fit the mold: S Jaylen Reed, S Billy Bowman, LB Chris Paul Jr., G Charles Grant

 

Pick 169 - Arian Smith, WR, Georgia

The fifth round is where the Bills top 30 visits become more relevant again. Twice has a top 30 visit been selected in the fifth round. In addition, Georgia is tied for the second most selections in the Beane regime - 3 times - each time being an offensive player. In addition to being a deep threat (with terrible hands), Smith is excellent on special teams which will be needed to make the roster.

 

Pick 170 and 173 - DT Cam Jackson/CB Jason Marshall Jr/ LB Shemar James/WR Elijhah Badger

Florida is the team that the Bills have drafted the most players from with 4 selections since 2019. They have an intriguing DT, CB, LB and deep threat/kick returning WR in this draft

 

Pick 177 and 206 - CB “Ice” Waxter/ WR Keandre Lambert-Smith/WR Monaray Baldwin

8 of 12 sixth round picks since 2018 have been used on either DBs or WRs. With another Villanova DB available late and a need for speedy receivers, it may go this type of way.

Commentary:

This is certainly not my ideal mock draft (I’ll add that to the mock draft thread the morning of the draft) and from pick 62 on I could have included many other alternate players. This is just trying to look at the past to predict the future as best as possible in the wacky world of the draft. If you have noticed any other tendencies I did not mention, please let me know. 

 

Hard to argue with any of this, even if I’d prefer different selections in some spots…

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, LEBills said:

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

That's kind of interesting as Coleman who was basically a 1st round pick who is only 20.  It makes sense as they think they can still develop those players.  Makes me wonder how they view Amos, Revel, and Barren who are all 23.

[SoonerBillsFan]

7 hours ago, LEBills said:

Beane has now run 7 drafts for the Bills and has shown some very clear trends. By following history, we can try and predict the Bills draft class. For all pre-draft info, I used this running article: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2025/04/nfl-draft-2025-buffalo-bills-pre-draft-visitors-zoom-meetings-and-private-workout-tracker.html?outputType=amp (thank you @RyanTalbotBills)

 

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

Pick 56: Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State

The Bills second pick in the draft has been a top 30 visit 3 out of 5 eligible years. None have been recovering from a major injury. And all of them had multiple years of production.

Other players that fit: DT TJ Sanders, CB Jacob Parrish, WR Jaylin Royals

 

Pick 62: Jacob Parrish, CB, Kansas State

Zoom meetings have also become important to the Bills scouting as both Dalton Kincaid and Cole Bishop only had zoom meetings with the Bills. Parrish is the one zoom meeting player we know of that matches this range.

Other players that fit this mold: DT Joshua Farmer

 

Pick 109 and 132 *Traded* Kevin Winston, S, PSU

Over the past 7 drafts the Bills have only selected in the 4th round 3 times. They have always had at least one third round pick in each draft. The third round is generally where they draft players in positions that will have openings the following year. Additionally, all the PSU defenders were coached in 2023 by McDermotts close friend Manny Diaz of which we have drafted three former players.

Other players that fit the mold: S Jaylen Reed, S Billy Bowman, LB Chris Paul Jr., G Charles Grant

 

Pick 169 - Arian Smith, WR, Georgia

The fifth round is where the Bills top 30 visits become more relevant again. Twice has a top 30 visit been selected in the fifth round. In addition, Georgia is tied for the second most selections in the Beane regime - 3 times - each time being an offensive player. In addition to being a deep threat (with terrible hands), Smith is excellent on special teams which will be needed to make the roster.

 

Pick 170 and 173 - DT Cam Jackson/CB Jason Marshall Jr/ LB Shemar James/WR Elijhah Badger

Florida is the team that the Bills have drafted the most players from with 4 selections since 2019. They have an intriguing DT, CB, LB and deep threat/kick returning WR in this draft

 

Pick 177 and 206 - CB “Ice” Waxter/ WR Keandre Lambert-Smith/WR Monaray Baldwin

8 of 12 sixth round picks since 2018 have been used on either DBs or WRs. With another Villanova DB available late and a need for speedy receivers, it may go this type of way.

Commentary:

This is certainly not my ideal mock draft (I’ll add that to the mock draft thread the morning of the draft) and from pick 62 on I could have included many other alternate players. This is just trying to look at the past to predict the future as best as possible in the wacky world of the draft. If you have noticed any other tendencies I did not mention, please let me know. 

 

Good draft. I would go WR with the 4th pick and Safety with the 5th or so, but that is just me.

[Sojourner]

Never really go by draft projections as they’re always up in the air outside the first 15-20 guys who are first rounders. 
 

Scourton and Stewart are awesome and whilst a CB and a DT are a bigger need for where we are at, can’t go wrong with either of them. They’re a weird combo. The tape as a whole makes me like Scourton slightly more but Stewart isn’t very far behind him. I think his measurables are what put him ahead.  
 

On the other note of those players who fit the mold for #30, Hairston has really grown on me as a selection. But then again, I’m just a peon. 

[Mr. WEO]

A DE from TEMU?  It won't play right out of the box.

[Bongo]

8 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

A DE from TEMU?  It won't play right out of the box.

And will have a 200% tariff attached by the time it gets here.

[mjt328]

7 hours ago, LEBills said:

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

 

I've always believed that Beane had no intention of drafting Kincaid, and was fully planning on taking a WR.

Then all the top receiver prospects got snatched up, and he talked himself into it... reasoning that he was still a "weapon" in the passing game.  

 

Usually it's pretty safe to assume we are going to take someone in for a Top 30 visit.

 

[LEBills]

3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

That's kind of interesting as Coleman who was basically a 1st round pick who is only 20.  It makes sense as they think they can still develop those players.  Makes me wonder how they view Amos, Revel, and Barren who are all 23.

Imo if any of them are clear and away the best player available at 30, they will take them despite the age. But if they are in a cluster of other similar graded players, they will basically always take the younger guy you can hopefully have for a longer time. Personally I think Revel is the least likely due to his injury, the Bills have passed on other injured players that were a value when they drafted like JOK and Voorhees

 

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Good draft. I would go WR with the 4th pick and Safety with the 5th or so, but that is just me.

You know if this was my real mock draft it would be 10 WRs lol

 

52 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

A DE from TEMU?  It won't play right out of the box.

It looks just like a DE but for a fraction of the price!

 

35 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

I've always believed that Beane had no intention of drafting Kincaid, and was fully planning on taking a WR.

Then all the top receiver prospects got snatched up, and he talked himself into it... reasoning that he was still a "weapon" in the passing game.  

 

Usually it's pretty safe to assume we are going to take someone in for a Top 30 visit.

 

I agree. I think we wanted Jordan Addison (pre draft visitor). We were just coming off the 22 Bengals playoff loss where Joe Burrow had an assortment of riches and Josh had an angry Diggs and nothing else. Kincaid was expected to go even earlier than the WRs - until maybe the rumblings close to the draft were he would potentially fall so they zoomed him. So when the WRs were gone he quickly pivoted to Kincaid. 

[BillsShredder83]

10 hours ago, LEBills said:

Beane has now run 7 drafts for the Bills and has shown some very clear trends. By following history, we can try and predict the Bills draft class. For all pre-draft info, I used this running article: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2025/04/nfl-draft-2025-buffalo-bills-pre-draft-visitors-zoom-meetings-and-private-workout-tracker.html?outputType=amp (thank you @RyanTalbotBills)

 

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

 

 

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Nic-Caraway-DE-Purdue

 

Weird, which one is his actual weight?  He looks 285... but conflicting info, almost 30lbs difference.... did he slim down for combine. Either way interesting prospect. Also wondering why his production dropped this year. Def not the be-all end-all, but notable

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 02:45 PM by BillsShredder83

[stlbills13]

I don't LOVE this but I wouldn't be upset with it either. Great analysis and work on this

[LEBills]

38 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

https://www.nfldraftbuzz.com/Player/Nic-Caraway-DE-Purdue

 

Weird, which one is his actual weight?  He looks 285... but conflicting info, almost 30lbs difference.... did he slim down for combine. Either way interesting prospect. Also wondering why his production dropped this year. Def not the be-all end-all, but notable

 

 

So the 257 is what he weighed at the combine and is his natural weight. He played at that weight in 2023 and led the Big 10 in sacks. He transferred to A&M in 2024 and they had him, Stewart and Turner play heavy and basically hold the line of scrimmage so his production suffered.

 

I would expect him to play at his combine weight in the pros. He’d be an excellent pick at 30 if this is what we do, imo 

[frostbitmic]

Judging by Brandon Beane's 1st round draft day record, we won't be picking at #30.

 

4 times Beane has moved up in the 1st round and once, last year, he moved back.

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Nice work

[ganesh]

The Bills need to hit on the players in the 1st two rounds for them to go to the SB.  

[chris heff]

4 hours ago, Bongo said:

And will have a 200% tariff attached by the time it gets here.

You’re going to get in trouble,

[T.E.]

Sean McDermott saw that you're predicting the first four picks to be defensive players and would like to officially extend an offer to you to work in the scouting department.

[nosejob]

4 hours ago, mjt328 said:

 

I've always believed that Beane had no intention of drafting Kincaid, and was fully planning on taking a WR.

Then all the top receiver prospects got snatched up, and he talked himself into it... reasoning that he was still a "weapon" in the passing game.  

 

Usually it's pretty safe to assume we are going to take someone in for a Top 30 visit.

 

I think they picked Kincaid because it was talked about all off season Brady wanting to run 12 personnel.

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, frostbitmic said:

Judging by Brandon Beane's 1st round draft day record, we won't be picking at #30.

 

4 times Beane has moved up in the 1st round and once, last year, he moved back.

Scournton's ok at 30 so long as all the other DTs are gone. We do need a 2 down end behind Bosa, but if Philly gets Nolan I will fall farther off the wagon.