Using Beane’s past 7 drafts to try and predict 2025 picks

[LEBills]

Beane has now run 7 drafts for the Bills and has shown some very clear trends. By following history, we can try and predict the Bills draft class. For all pre-draft info, I used this running article: https://www.syracuse.com/buffalo-bills/2025/04/nfl-draft-2025-buffalo-bills-pre-draft-visitors-zoom-meetings-and-private-workout-tracker.html?outputType=amp (thank you @RyanTalbotBills)

 

Pick 30: Nick Scourton, DE, TAMU

Dalton Kincaid was the only first pick in the draft that was not a top 30 visit and was older than 21 years old on draft day. Scourton, 20, fills a premium position.

Other players that fit mold: DE Shemar Stewart, CB Maxwell Hairston, DT TJ Sanders

 

Pick 56: Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State

The Bills second pick in the draft has been a top 30 visit 3 out of 5 eligible years. None have been recovering from a major injury. And all of them had multiple years of production.

Other players that fit: DT TJ Sanders, CB Jacob Parrish, WR Jaylin Royals

 

Pick 62: Jacob Parrish, CB, Kansas State

Zoom meetings have also become important to the Bills scouting as both Dalton Kincaid and Cole Bishop only had zoom meetings with the Bills. Parrish is the one zoom meeting player we know of that matches this range.

Other players that fit this mold: DT Joshua Farmer

 

Pick 109 and 132 *Traded* Kevin Winston, S, PSU

Over the past 7 drafts the Bills have only selected in the 4th round 3 times. They have always had at least one third round pick in each draft. The third round is generally where they draft players in positions that will have openings the following year. Additionally, all the PSU defenders were coached in 2023 by McDermotts close friend Manny Diaz of which we have drafted three former players.

Other players that fit the mold: S Jaylen Reed, S Billy Bowman, LB Chris Paul Jr., G Charles Grant

 

Pick 169 - Arian Smith, WR, Georgia

The fifth round is where the Bills top 30 visits become more relevant again. Twice has a top 30 visit been selected in the fifth round. In addition, Georgia is tied for the second most selections in the Beane regime - 3 times - each time being an offensive player. In addition to being a deep threat (with terrible hands), Smith is excellent on special teams which will be needed to make the roster.

 

Pick 170 and 173 - DT Cam Jackson/CB Jason Marshall Jr/ LB Shemar James/WR Elijhah Badger

Florida is the team that the Bills have drafted the most players from with 4 selections since 2019. They have an intriguing DT, CB, LB and deep threat/kick returning WR in this draft

 

Pick 177 and 206 - CB “Ice” Waxter/ WR Keandre Lambert-Smith/WR Monaray Baldwin

8 of 12 sixth round picks since 2018 have been used on either DBs or WRs. With another Villanova DB available late and a need for speedy receivers, it may go this type of way.

Commentary:

This is certainly not my ideal mock draft (I’ll add that to the mock draft thread the morning of the draft) and from pick 62 on I could have included many other alternate players. This is just trying to look at the past to predict the future as best as possible in the wacky world of the draft. If you have noticed any other tendencies I did not mention, please let me know. 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by LEBills