Bills strategy for the draft

[Doc Brown]

7 hours ago, Lafromboise said:

I just don't want them to panic like when Trent McDuffie went off the board..

I don't see Beane as someone who panics.  He wouldn't have traded out of the spot if he didn't have Elam as one of his last 1st round grades.  I might be drinking the Kool aid but Gordon, Booth,  and McCreary will still on the board.  Pry would've traded back like the 1st round last year if he didn't have a first round grade on Elam.

 

[JohnNord]

11 hours ago, WhiskyBreath said:

Our GM has generated quite a bit of ammunition:

• A late pick in round 1.
• 2 picks in round 2
• 2 picks in round 4
• 3 picks in round 5
• 2 picks in round 6

 

We do not have picks in rounds 3 and 7.

 

I would be inclined to consider giving up our pick in round 1, and one of our picks in round 2, in exchange for moving up in round 1 and getting a pick in round 3.  Could offer a pick in rounds 4, 5 or 6 as well, provided we get the right guy in round 1.  Question is how much higher can we pick in round 1 with this ammunition. 

 

We also could tade down in round 1 in exchange for another round 2 pick and a round 3 pick.

 

I have faith in Beane and a lot depends on who is available as the draft progresses.  But, if you were the GM, what would you consider doing?

It all depends how the board falls but they are in a pretty good position from a roster standpoint.  The one glaring hole IMO is going to be CB2.  They need to come away with a player that is good enough to start as a rookie.  I feel this can be addressed in rounds 1 or 2 but where is anyone’s guess.  
 

1TDT and WR are also positions the Bills need to add.  Safety and Edge could also be in play for 2025 and definitely 2026.

 

IMO Beane is going to use some of the picks in R4 and R5 to move up in mid rounds.  I can definitely see him “re-cooping” a 3rd round selection lost to Amari Cooper.  We’ve seen them lose decent talent like Alex Austin and Nick Broeker as late picks because there wasn’t space on the roster.  I think it’s going to challenging for a 5th or 6th round pick to crack the roster at some of the deeper positions so I can see a quality over quantity approach 
 

 

 

[JohnNord]

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't see Beane as someone who panics.  He wouldn't have traded out of the spot if he didn't have Elam as one of his last 1st round grades.  I might be drinking the Kool aid but Gordon, Booth,  and McCreary will still on the board.  Pry would've traded back like the 1st round last year if he didn't have a first round grade on Elam.

 

Agreed - but the whole Elam pick is such a mystery.  He wasn’t the type of CB that fit the system and it never seemed like his position coach (John Butler) ever wanted him.  McDermott and Beane always seemed to challenge him to step up publicly for 2 seasons.  Finally when the Bills had to go to Elam in the post season be KC and played more man defense (his speciality), he absolutely sucked.  
 

I don’t buy the “panic” narrative as it doesn’t fit Beane’s MO.  But the Elam pick continues to be a head scratcher 

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Agreed - but the whole Elam pick is such a mystery.  He wasn’t the type of CB that fit the system and it never seemed like his position coach (John Butler) ever wanted him.  McDermott and Beane always seemed to challenge him to step up publicly for 2 seasons.  Finally when the Bills had to go to Elam in the post season be KC and played more man defense (his speciality), he absolutely sucked.  
 

I don’t buy the “panic” narrative as it doesn’t fit Beane’s MO.  But the Elam pick continues to be a head scratcher 

They wanted to upgrade the athleticism of the position opposite White.   Elam had all the physical attributes they value.  Thought that all his weaknesses were correctable for him to integrate into their zone heavy scheme.  

[Thurman#1]

Trade up ... if the right guy is there moving towards you and you don't have to give up picks in day one or two. That's day one or two this year and every year going forward. Don't give away high-value picks in future years. Just don't do it unless you are desperate for a franchise QB, and we are very much not.

 

Trade back ... especially if you can pick up the kind of pick you shouldn't trade away, day one or two picks this year or in the future.

 

More picks means more chances to get a terrific bargain.

 

There's a reason this is the standard wisdom. They've done academic studies on this and they all say the same thing, and that is that trading up with big assets lowers your overall chances of success, whereas trading down raises your chances. 

 

GMs, and armchair GMs as well, tend to think they know best which guys will turn out best. That's a mistake of perception. We can figure out guys who have higher odds and guys who have lower odds, but there's a reason that about half of all first rounders under-produce according to standards you'd expect from their draft slot. Predicting the draft is just a hell of a lot harder than it appears. That's why more picks is better.

[RyanC883]

I like this mock draft a lot.  One of the better ones I've seen.  Addresses DT, DE, S, CB, WR, and RB all very well.  

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-7-round-mock-draft-buffalo-pulls-off-2-trades-to-address-glaring-need-and-adds-21-td-wr-for-josh-allen/ar-AA1DjxhE?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0b1df818a5c34513a42928d3413fb2e6&ei=9

[ndirish1978]

I would like to trade out of Rd 1 to pick up a third then draft a CB with our first pick, then draft Edge and DT with our second rd picks. Take Kyle Williams or Royals in the 3rd. After that they can do whatever they want. I would also like to double dip at both DT and CB because we don't have depth at those positions that I'm willing to bank on. 

Edited 49 minutes ago by ndirish1978

[BigAl2526]

I would shocked and probably disappointed if the Bills climbed higher than about #25, and even then it would need to be a really intriguing player to make me happy.  I think the odds favor a trade down more than a trade up, but you never know.