Bills strategy for the draft

[Doc Brown]

7 hours ago, Lafromboise said:

I just don't want them to panic like when Trent McDuffie went off the board..

I don't see Beane as someone who panics.  He wouldn't have traded out of the spot if he didn't have Elam as one of his last 1st round grades.  I might be drinking the Kool aid but Gordon, Booth,  and McCreary will still on the board.  Pry would've traded back like the 1st round last year if he didn't have a first round grade on Elam.

 

[JohnNord]

11 hours ago, WhiskyBreath said:

Our GM has generated quite a bit of ammunition:

• A late pick in round 1.
• 2 picks in round 2
• 2 picks in round 4
• 3 picks in round 5
• 2 picks in round 6

 

We do not have picks in rounds 3 and 7.

 

I would be inclined to consider giving up our pick in round 1, and one of our picks in round 2, in exchange for moving up in round 1 and getting a pick in round 3.  Could offer a pick in rounds 4, 5 or 6 as well, provided we get the right guy in round 1.  Question is how much higher can we pick in round 1 with this ammunition. 

 

We also could tade down in round 1 in exchange for another round 2 pick and a round 3 pick.

 

I have faith in Beane and a lot depends on who is available as the draft progresses.  But, if you were the GM, what would you consider doing?

It all depends how the board falls but they are in a pretty good position from a roster standpoint.  The one glaring hole IMO is going to be CB2.  They need to come away with a player that is good enough to start as a rookie.  I feel this can be addressed in rounds 1 or 2 but where is anyone’s guess.  
 

1TDT and WR are also positions the Bills need to add.  Safety and Edge could also be in play for 2025 and definitely 2026.

 

IMO Beane is going to use some of the picks in R4 and R5 to move up in mid rounds.  I can definitely see him “re-cooping” a 3rd round selection lost to Amari Cooper.  We’ve seen them lose decent talent like Alex Austin and Nick Broeker as late picks because there wasn’t space on the roster.  I think it’s going to challenging for a 5th or 6th round pick to crack the roster at some of the deeper positions so I can see a quality over quantity approach 
 

 

 

[JohnNord]

9 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't see Beane as someone who panics.  He wouldn't have traded out of the spot if he didn't have Elam as one of his last 1st round grades.  I might be drinking the Kool aid but Gordon, Booth,  and McCreary will still on the board.  Pry would've traded back like the 1st round last year if he didn't have a first round grade on Elam.

 

Agreed - but the whole Elam pick is such a mystery.  He wasn’t the type of CB that fit the system and it never seemed like his position coach (John Butler) ever wanted him.  McDermott and Beane always seemed to challenge him to step up publicly for 2 seasons.  Finally when the Bills had to go to Elam in the post season be KC and played more man defense (his speciality), he absolutely sucked.  
 

I don’t buy the “panic” narrative as it doesn’t fit Beane’s MO.  But the Elam pick continues to be a head scratcher 

[Doc Brown]

4 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Agreed - but the whole Elam pick is such a mystery.  He wasn’t the type of CB that fit the system and it never seemed like his position coach (John Butler) ever wanted him.  McDermott and Beane always seemed to challenge him to step up publicly for 2 seasons.  Finally when the Bills had to go to Elam in the post season be KC and played more man defense (his speciality), he absolutely sucked.  
 

I don’t buy the “panic” narrative as it doesn’t fit Beane’s MO.  But the Elam pick continues to be a head scratcher 

They wanted to upgrade the athleticism of the position opposite White.   Elam had all the physical attributes they value.  Thought that all his weaknesses were correctable for him to integrate into their zone heavy scheme.  

[Thurman#1]

Trade up ... if the right guy is there moving towards you and you don't have to give up picks in day one or two. That's day one or two this year and every year going forward. Don't give away high-value picks in future years. Just don't do it unless you are desperate for a franchise QB, and we are very much not.

 

Trade back ... especially if you can pick up the kind of pick you shouldn't trade away, day one or two picks this year or in the future.

 

More picks means more chances to get a terrific bargain.

 

There's a reason this is the standard wisdom. They've done academic studies on this and they all say the same thing, and that is that trading up with big assets lowers your overall chances of success, whereas trading down raises your chances. 

 

GMs, and armchair GMs as well, tend to think they know best which guys will turn out best. That's a mistake of perception. We can figure out guys who have higher odds and guys who have lower odds, but there's a reason that about half of all first rounders under-produce according to standards you'd expect from their draft slot. Predicting the draft is just a hell of a lot harder than it appears. That's why more picks is better.

[RyanC883]

I like this mock draft a lot.  One of the better ones I've seen.  Addresses DT, DE, S, CB, WR, and RB all very well.  

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-7-round-mock-draft-buffalo-pulls-off-2-trades-to-address-glaring-need-and-adds-21-td-wr-for-josh-allen/ar-AA1DjxhE?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0b1df818a5c34513a42928d3413fb2e6&ei=9

[ndirish1978]

I would like to trade out of Rd 1 to pick up a third then draft a CB with our first pick, then draft Edge and DT with our second rd picks. Take Kyle Williams or Royals in the 3rd. After that they can do whatever they want. I would also like to double dip at both DT and CB because we don't have depth at those positions that I'm willing to bank on. 

Edited 14 hours ago by ndirish1978

[BigAl2526]

I would shocked and probably disappointed if the Bills climbed higher than about #25, and even then it would need to be a really intriguing player to make me happy.  I think the odds favor a trade down more than a trade up, but you never know.

[Motorin']

51 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

I would like to trade out of Rd 1 to pick up a third then draft a CB with our first pick, then draft Edge and DT with our second rd picks. Take Kyle Williams or Royals in the 3rd. After that they can do whatever they want. I would also like to double dip at both DT and CB because we don't have depth at those positions that I'm willing to bank on. 

 

This is pretty much my thinking as well.

 

Of course there's always the chance that a difference maker falls into the 20's promoting Beane to try to move up...

 

Or he's too nervous about losing his CB pick if he trades back, so stays out and drafts a 2nd round graded CB at 30...

[turbo044]

1 hour ago, RyanC883 said:

I like this mock draft a lot.  One of the better ones I've seen.  Addresses DT, DE, S, CB, WR, and RB all very well.  

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/bills-7-round-mock-draft-buffalo-pulls-off-2-trades-to-address-glaring-need-and-adds-21-td-wr-for-josh-allen/ar-AA1DjxhE?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=0b1df818a5c34513a42928d3413fb2e6&ei=9

Don't really like it. 

 

No way in the world the Bills get the 94th pick (2nd pick in round 4 I believe) and a 26 2nd from CLE to move back 3 spot,

 

No way the Bills give up picks 62, 94 and 169 to move up 9 spots in the 2nd.  Simply stay where hey are and draft Swinson at 56 and Royals at 62 (both should be there at those picks).

 

Why are we drafting 2 Olinemen and only one CB?

 

 

 

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

This is pretty much my thinking as well.

 

Of course there's always the chance that a difference maker falls into the 20's promoting Beane to try to move up...

 

Or he's too nervous about losing his CB pick if he trades back, so stays out and drafts a 2nd round graded CB at 30...

I agree 100%, CB is our glaring need and I think there will be plenty of really Good dt's at 56 and 62.  I wouldn't hate us going CB, DT, WR and DT (with the aquired 3rd rounder) as Edge isn't a high priority THIS YEAR.  Next year could be a different story.

[Warriorspikes51]

The strategy should be to draft the 2 biggest, most powerful Defensive Tackles we can get within the first 3 picks.   & then another later on.

 

The IDL is crying out for size & power.   We have 1 legit DT as of now.  The others should either be cut / are suspended / fringe players 

[turbo044]

21 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

The strategy should be to draft the 2 biggest, most powerful Defensive Tackles we can get within the first 3 picks.   & then another later on.

 

The IDL is crying out for size & power.   We have 1 legit DT as of now.  The others should either be cut / are suspended / fringe players 

Agreed - at least 2, maybe 3 as jones is our only big body and he dropped off the face of the earth last year

[khlax3]

My hope is the giants want to come back to the first round to grab dart so they have the 5th year option.

 

Bills get: rd 2 (34) rd 3 (99)

Giants get  rd 1 (30) rd 6 (177)

 

Bills the package rd 4 (109) and rd 5 (173) to get another 3rd. 
 

That would give the bills 5 top 100 picks along with 1 still in the 4th 2 in the 5th and 1 in the sixth. 

[turbo044]

38 minutes ago, khlax3 said:

My hope is the giants want to come back to the first round to grab dart so they have the 5th year option.

 

Bills get: rd 2 (34) rd 3 (99)

Giants get  rd 1 (30) rd 6 (177)

 

Bills the package rd 4 (109) and rd 5 (173) to get another 3rd. 
 

That would give the bills 5 top 100 picks along with 1 still in the 4th 2 in the 5th and 1 in the sixth. 

All reasonable

[ndirish1978]

3 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

This is pretty much my thinking as well.

 

Of course there's always the chance that a difference maker falls into the 20's promoting Beane to try to move up...

 

Or he's too nervous about losing his CB pick if he trades back, so stays out and drafts a 2nd round graded CB at 30...

 

Trey Amos should be there at 30, I think he's a 1st rd CB. If they want to stick at 30 and pick him I'm ok with that, but I'd be happy to trade back and pick up Porter, Hairston or Thomas and recover a 3rd we could spend on a WR.

[Gregg]

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=5aca059da52ae47edb023b88385f36ba1f94a998953153b2a3982e1d902051daJmltdHM9MTc0NTE5MzYwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=39432f18-80d3-69d2-2993-3dda815f6841&psq=MOCK+DRAFT&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2Jzc3BvcnRzLmNvbS9uZmwvZHJhZnQvbmV3cy8yMDI1LW5mbC1tb2NrLWRyYWZ0LXN1cnByaXNlcy1zdGFydC1hdC1uby01LWFzLWphZ3VhcnMtZ28tb2ZmZW5zZS1naWFudHMtdHJhZGUtYmFjay1pbnRvLXJvdW5kLTEtZm9yLXFiLw&ntb=1

 

This mock draft has us trading 30, 56, and 177 to the Cardinals for #16

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, Gregg said:

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=5aca059da52ae47edb023b88385f36ba1f94a998953153b2a3982e1d902051daJmltdHM9MTc0NTE5MzYwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=39432f18-80d3-69d2-2993-3dda815f6841&psq=MOCK+DRAFT&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2Jzc3BvcnRzLmNvbS9uZmwvZHJhZnQvbmV3cy8yMDI1LW5mbC1tb2NrLWRyYWZ0LXN1cnByaXNlcy1zdGFydC1hdC1uby01LWFzLWphZ3VhcnMtZ28tb2ZmZW5zZS1naWFudHMtdHJhZGUtYmFjay1pbnRvLXJvdW5kLTEtZm9yLXFiLw&ntb=1

 

This mock draft has us trading 30, 56, and 177 to the Cardinals for #16

for Will Johnson?  No thanks 

[Gregg]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

for Will Johnson?  No thanks 

 

I would rather they go DL in Rd 1. I don't see the Bills trading up that high anyway. Maybe if a player falls that Beane likes he trades into the low 20's.

[27yankees]

Leave it as is, 2 quality DT 1T (1st/2nd) Grant/Collins; to stuff the run, grab Dorian Strong CB with 2nd #2, Grab Don'ter Thorton with #4 along with Stutsman LB, Round 5: Batty (Edge), Zah Fraizer CB, Hunter Wohler S, 6: Holland Pierce OT, Dalton Cooper OT. The trenches are set for multiple years. 

[Turbo44]

58 minutes ago, Gregg said:

https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=5aca059da52ae47edb023b88385f36ba1f94a998953153b2a3982e1d902051daJmltdHM9MTc0NTE5MzYwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=39432f18-80d3-69d2-2993-3dda815f6841&psq=MOCK+DRAFT&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY2Jzc3BvcnRzLmNvbS9uZmwvZHJhZnQvbmV3cy8yMDI1LW5mbC1tb2NrLWRyYWZ0LXN1cnByaXNlcy1zdGFydC1hdC1uby01LWFzLWphZ3VhcnMtZ28tb2ZmZW5zZS1naWFudHMtdHJhZGUtYmFjay1pbnRvLXJvdW5kLTEtZm9yLXFiLw&ntb=1

 

This mock draft has us trading 30, 56, and 177 to the Cardinals for #16

Wouldn’t hate this, Johnson would be a dream. Would still be able to get your DT at 62 and hope for a decent WR or Edge falls to 109