Bills strategy for the draft

[WhiskyBreath]

Our GM has generated quite a bit of ammunition:

• A late pick in round 1.
• 2 picks in round 2
• 2 picks in round 4
• 3 picks in round 5
• 2 picks in round 6

 

We do not have picks in rounds 3 and 7.

 

I would be inclined to consider giving up our pick in round 1, and one of our picks in round 2, in exchange for moving up in round 1 and getting a pick in round 3.  Could offer a pick in rounds 4, 5 or 6 as well, provided we get the right guy in round 1.  Question is how much higher can we pick in round 1 with this ammunition. 

 

We also could tade down in round 1 in exchange for another round 2 pick and a round 3 pick.

 

I have faith in Beane and a lot depends on who is available as the draft progresses.  But, if you were the GM, what would you consider doing?

Edited yesterday at 01:28 PM by WhiskyBreath

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, WhiskyBreath said:

Our GM has generated quite a bit of ammunition:

• A late pick in round 1.
• 2 picks in round 2
• 2 picks in round 4
• 3 picks in round 5
• 2 picks in round 6

 

We do not have picks in rounds 3 and 7.

 

I would be inclined to consider giving up our pick in round 1, and one of our picks in round 2, in exchange for moving up in round 1 and getting a pick in round 3.  Could offer a pick in rounds 4, 5 or 6 as well, provided we get the right guy in round 1.  Question is how much higher can we pick in round 1 with this ammunition. 

 

We also could tade down in round 1 in exchange for another round 2 pick and a round 3 pick.

 

I have faith in Beane and a lot depends on who is available as the draft progresses.  But, if you were the GM, what would you consider doing?

 

So much depends on how players come off the board. In recent years the picks have become “chalkier” in the first round so we should have a good idea of how things play out. Still, there are always some surprises and teams need to be flexible. Really, that’s all a GM can do. Lay the groundwork for moves up and down the board and make moves according to circumstances. 

Edited yesterday at 05:16 PM by BarleyNY

[NewEra]

All depends who’s is available at what pick 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, WhiskyBreath said:

Our GM has generated quite a bit of ammunition:

• A late pick in round 1.
• 2 picks in round 2
• 2 picks in round 4
• 3 picks in round 5
• 2 picks in round 6

 

We do not have picks in rounds 3 and 7.

 

I would be inclined to consider giving up our pick in round 1, and one of our picks in round 2, in exchange for moving up in round 1 and getting a pick in round 3.  Could offer a pick in rounds 4, 5 or 6 as well, provided we get the right guy in round 1.  Question is how much higher can we pick in round 1 with this ammunition. 

 

We also could tade down in round 1 in exchange for another round 2 pick and a round 3 pick.

 

I have faith in Beane and a lot depends on who is available as the draft progresses.  But, if you were the GM, what would you consider doing?

As it’s already been said, depends how the board falls.  We need to really find a difference maker, so if the right one is there then make the move. 
 

I am personally hoping we make some move where we do get back in the 3rd…specifically because I think that is where we could get WR Donte Thornton.  I dont think he lasts to 109 and I think the 2nd is too early.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, NewEra said:

All depends who’s is available at what pick 

Agreed.  Knowing Beane if he cam trade back a few spots and still get a player they want ( see the 30 player visits) and pick up a 3rd round pick,he will do it.

[nosejob]

59 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

As it’s already been said, depends how the board falls.  We need to really find a difference maker, so if the right one is there then make the move. 
 

I am personally hoping we make some move where we do get back in the 3rd…specifically because I think that is where we could get WR Donte Thornton.  I dont think he lasts to 109 and I think the 2nd is too early.  

I would hope to be able to sit at 30 and get Nolan. There's no telling how things will turn out. Ahead of us we have Detroit and Wash. Below us we have KC and Philly. We may have to jump Detroit or hope we don't lose out trading back. I could see either Safety or Scournton if all the DTs are gone, but hoping for Nolan at 30.

 

As far as a 3rd goes, I'm a big advocate for using a 1st or 2nd from 2026. However if there were to be a trade down,to 36 and a 5th to the Jags for 70. If that were the case I could see...

36 Jackson

56 Collins

62  Porter

70 Thornton

109 T.J Sanders

There's just no way of telling how the first 25 will go.

Edited yesterday at 03:52 PM by nosejob

[4BillsintheBurgh]

I look at it like this:

 

If one of the 15 - 20 or so "first round talents" get within striking distance of a move up, Beane seems to do that. Since we don't have a third and are picking lower in the round, it seems like the value for a sizeable move won't be there this year. I think Beane values the draft picks even more now that the salary cap accounts for Josh, as opposed to prior when there was more money available for free agents; he has to get more value from the draft class. I think any one of the first three picks could be in play for a trade down, but I think picks 3-7 have a higher than normal chance of moving up. This year it will be expensive to move up in the mid rounds, but I think Beane will find some value in players to do it and we have the ammo.

[BuffBillsForLife]

When you pick at 30 there is no real strategy going in unless you're planning on mortgaging the farm to move up into the top 10. All you can do is see how the board falls and react appropriately. If your guy is there at ~20-25 then trade up, if nobody with a high grade is there then trade down, or just stand pat and take BPA.

[Alphadawg7]

47 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I would hope to be able to sit at 30 and get Nolan. There's no telling how things will turn out. Ahead of us we have Detroit and Wash. Below us we have KC and Philly. We may have to jump Detroit or hope we don't lose out trading back. I could see either Safety or Scournton if all the DTs are gone, but hoping for Nolan at 30.

 

As far as a 3rd goes, I'm a big advocate for using a 1st or 2nd from 2026. However if there were to be a trade down,to 36 and a 5th to the Jags for 70. If that were the case I could see...

36 Jackson

56 Collins

62  Porter

70 Thornton

109 T.J Sanders

There's just no way of telling how the first 25 will go.

Yeah I could see a scenario like that and Jags would make sense, but who will be there at 30 that the Jags want enough to pull the trigger is the question.  
 

If I have to guess right now, I think CB is likely our first choice in the draft…mainly because the value at CB falls off a lot faster than DT and our visits seem to tip the scales that way.
 

Don’t get me wrong, I want a stud at DT in the worst way, but it just seems like they are gearing up to address CB first.  Maybe the Tre signing impacts their plans, but I doubt it.  

[Shortchaz]

I think we moved down last year with the plan of moving up this year. The only issue I’m having is next year is supposed to be a better crop of talent so the strategy may fail. We’ll see, I’m sure whatever they do will be enough to sell tickets. 

[Lafromboise]

I just don't want them to panic like when Trent McDuffie went off the board..

[Allen2Moulds]

Bottom line to me, is that we have to get these evaluations right, to begin with. Next is figuring out the sweet spot to go get them. We need to avoid drafting at the end of a run. If we truly are targeting CB early, there's a group of teams in front of us, that could all go CB. Same could be said for DT.

[L Ron Burgundy]

Here are my hopes for the Bills strategy.  Starting/difference making players at CB and DT, and if the draft falls well WR, S, and LB.  Then depth and special teams.  I think there's a decent chance we can get 3 starters.  The only thing I don't know is where the needs lie after CB and DT.  Do we need a S more than LB?  Probably, unless there's injuries at LB but there always are.  A WR that has separation would be great but not an absolute need.  

 

[bigK14094]

Available talent+needs+best judgement= dictates choices.

[Cray51]

I could see Beane taking a chance on a boom/bust or off field issues guy with 62

 

Bond type of player

[nosejob]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Yeah I could see a scenario like that and Jags would make sense, but who will be there at 30 that the Jags want enough to pull the trigger is the question.  
 

If I have to guess right now, I think CB is likely our first choice in the draft…mainly because the value at CB falls off a lot faster than DT and our visits seem to tip the scales that way.
 

Don’t get me wrong, I want a stud at DT in the worst way, but it just seems like they are gearing up to address CB first.  Maybe the Tre signing impacts their plans, but I doubt it.  

I think maybe it does. They at least wanna let everybody know they're not backing themselves into a corner  back. FWIW.  I don't care about the "top tier of injured, no production guys. To me there's really no difference or little from them to Strong, Parrish, Bryant etc. I want Porter no matter what because of that.  We can find just as good as those in the "top tier" later.

[Aesop]

Corner or Defensive Tackle. Preferably a large 1 tech, Kenneth Grant from Michigan is a monster who can eat up space and allow our LBs to make plays.

[Bigvinny]

Move down pick up a 3rd, the meat of this draft is 2nd and 3rd round.

[Breakout Squad]

1 hour ago, Bigvinny said:

Move down pick up a 3rd, the meat of this draft is 2nd and 3rd round.

I think we’d get an extra 4th not a 3rd. But can always swing a few 5th rounders someone’s way. 

[skibum]

Hopefully they get everyone they want at every pick, and no trades are needed.