Draft as many of these 7 DTs as possible

[LEBills]

I went through all DTs selected to the All-pro team and/or Pro Bowl from 2013-2025 to see if I could find any similarities in their background pre-draft.

 

In that timeframe 37 different players were selected. Of that group 25 (67%) of the individuals selected met one of the two following criteria. However, since many of the players were nominated multiple times, those who hit this criteria made up over 82% of the total selections.

 

Production: At least 5 sacks recorded in a single college season by their true Junior year AND a RAS greater than 7

 

Speed: A Sub 5.0 40 and/or a sub 1.7 10 yard split while weighing more than 295 pounds

 

Quote

 

Players that met production(18): Aaron Donald, Cam Heyward, Dexter Lawrence, Leonard Williams, Quinnen Williams, Jeffrey Simmons, Justin Madabuike, Vita Vea, Kenny Clark, Jonathan Allen, Fletcher Cox, Calais Campbell, Geno Atkins, Gerald McCoy, Muhammed Wilkerson, Marcell Dareus, Justin Smith, Jason Hatcher

 

Players that met speed (7): Chris Jones, Javon Hargrave, Daron Payne, Grady Jarrett, Jurrel Casey, Kyle Williams, Dontari Poe

 

Players that met neither (13): Derrick Brown, Deforest Buckner, Jalen Carter*, Mike Daniels, Damon Harrison^, Akiem Hicks^, Linval Joseph^, Sheldon Richardson, Kawann Short, Ndamukong Suh, Haloti Ngata, Brandon Williams^, Malik Jackson

 

 

So who meets these criteria in this draft class?

 

Production:

Josh Farmer, Florida State

CJ West, Indiana

Walter Nolen, Ole Miss*

Tyleik Williams, Ohio State*

 

Speed:

Derrick Harmon, Oregon

Darius Alexander, Toldeo

TJ Sanders, South Carolina

CJ West, Indiana
 

Commentary:

The most important factor in success is obviously draft capital. So in this class and past draft classes, I focused on those drafted by the end of day 2.
 

First, what a DT class this is! The previous record for DTs who met one of these criteria was 5 players each in 2019 and 2018 (8 of those 10 are making over 10 million per year on their current contracts). 
 

Now there are obviously players who succeed that didn’t meet those criteria so scouting is still needed. But for your best shot at finding a star, this is the group to focus on in my opinion.

 

* = no RAS

^ = small school prospect

[turbo044]

A lot of great options here.  Even if they don't meet the criteria, I would include Grant, Collins and Phillips to this list

[SoonerBillsFan]

Nolen. Trade up if need be.

[SoCal Deek]

Impressive research! I have to wonder if the Bills scouting department looks into things this analytically. Or do they just go with gut feelings. 

[LEBills]

6 minutes ago, turbo044 said:

A lot of great options here.  Even if they don't meet the criteria, I would include Grant, Collins and Phillips to this list

Grant and Phillips do not meet either and I personally would stay away early

 

Collins could not test so is incomplete. From watching him I would like him as a pick like I do the above 7

 

4 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Nolen. Trade up if need be.

No matter what

[CSBill]

1 minute ago, SoCal Deek said:

Impressive research! I have to wonder if the Bills scouting department looks into things this analytically. Or do they just go with gut feelings. 

 

Analytics is everywhere. I have no doubt they use it extensively, still, as someone in a profession where player evaluation is everything, "gut feelings" (based on years of experience and observation) are usually the final analysis and deciding factor.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

Grant and Phillips do not meet either and I personally would stay away early

 

Collins could not test so is incomplete. From watching him I would like him as a pick like I do the above 7

 

No matter what

Just like Vontae Mack!

Edited Friday at 01:59 PM by SoonerBillsFan

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, LEBills said:

I went through all DTs selected to the All-pro team and/or Pro Bowl from 2013-2025 to see if I could find any similarities in their background pre-draft.

 

In that timeframe 37 different players were selected. Of that group 25 (67%) of the individuals selected met one of the two following criteria. However, since many of the players were nominated multiple times, those who hit this criteria made up over 82% of the total selections.

 

Production: At least 5 sacks recorded in a single college season by their true Junior year AND a RAS greater than 7

 

Speed: A Sub 5.0 40 and/or a sub 1.7 10 yard split while weighing more than 295 pounds

 

 

So who meets these criteria in this draft class?

 

Production:

Josh Farmer, Florida State

CJ West, Indiana

Walter Nolen, Ole Miss*

Tyleik Williams, Ohio State*

 

Speed:

Derrick Harmon, Oregon

Darius Alexander, Toldeo

TJ Sanders, South Carolina

CJ West, Indiana
 

Commentary:

The most important factor in success is obviously draft capital. So in this class and past draft classes, I focused on those drafted by the end of day 2.
 

First, what a DT class this is! The previous record for DTs who met one of these criteria was 5 players each in 2019 and 2018 (8 of those 10 are making over 10 million per year on their current contracts). 
 

Now there are obviously players who succeed that didn’t meet those criteria so scouting is still needed. But for your best shot at finding a star, this is the group to focus on in my opinion.

 

* = no RAS

^ = small school prospect

 

I see so many posts like this - saying that the Bills should draft several DTs. But not a single one of them explains where on the roster they’re going to fit. The Bills have always carried either 4 or 5 DTs on the 53. As of now we have Jones, Oliver, Carter and O-Gun (after game 6) that will all make the team. Logue will probably be a PS player. Hoecht has also dropped inside, but he’s out until Game 7 too. To me that leaves open a single spot at 1 Tech and a single PS spot - or two at most if they carry two there and Logue gets beat out. The only other possibility is that they’re already giving up on Carter and he gets replaced. He did nothing last season so that probably isn’t zero. So my plan would be a 1 tech on day one or two and another developmental 1 tech in a late round. I also see no issue with one 3 Tech if they aren’t comfortable with Carter, but that has to be with the understanding that either the rookie or Carter won’t make the 53. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Impressive research! I have to wonder if the Bills scouting department looks into things this analytically. Or do they just go with gut feelings. 

Pretty sure their #1 metric is whether the prospect has a solid notebook or not

[LEBills]

7 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I see so many posts like this - saying that the Bills should draft several DTs. But not a single one of them explains where on the roster they’re going to fit. The Bills have always carried either 4 or 5 DTs on the 53. As of now we have Jones, Oliver, Carter and O-Gun (after game 6) that will all make the team. Logue will probably be a PS player. Hoecht has also dropped inside, but he’s out until Game 7 too. To me that leaves open a single spot at 1 Tech and a single PS spot - or two at most if they carry two there and Logue gets beat out. The only other possibility is that they’re already giving up on Carter and he gets replaced. He did nothing last season so that probably isn’t zero. So my plan would be a 1 tech on day one or two and another developmental 1 tech in a late round. I also see no issue with one 3 Tech if they aren’t comfortable with Carter, but that has to be with the understanding that either the rookie or Carter won’t make the 53. 

Sorry if the title is a bit misleading. This is more of a focus on which players have the most favorable pre-draft backgrounds to becoming great players than us drafting a ton of DTs. 

 

As it relates to the Bills roster construction, in 2024 and 2023 they had 6 DTs play at least 7 games each year. In 2022, that was only 4. 
 

Imo, the only DTs guaranteed a spot are Ed and Carter. Ogunjobi and especially Jones have money tied up in them but are cutable if needed. So Id say they can draft and retain 2 DTs pretty easily especially if they keep 5 on the roster.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

7 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I see so many posts like this - saying that the Bills should draft several DTs. But not a single one of them explains where on the roster they’re going to fit. The Bills have always carried either 4 or 5 DTs on the 53. As of now we have Jones, Oliver, Carter and O-Gun (after game 6) that will all make the team. Logue will probably be a PS player. Hoecht has also dropped inside, but he’s out until Game 7 too. To me that leaves open a single spot at 1 Tech and a single PS spot - or two at most if they carry two there and Logue gets beat out. The only other possibility is that they’re already giving up on Carter and he gets replaced. He did nothing last season so that probably isn’t zero. So my plan would be a 1 tech on day one or two and another developmental 1 tech in a late round. I also see no issue with one 3 Tech if they aren’t comfortable with Carter, but that has to be with the understanding that either the rookie or Carter won’t make the 53. 

 

Exactly,  I see posts like this all the time, the Bills should draft/sign draft several  (fill in the position blank)  There has to be an actual roster spot open for that player.  It's different too if a team is rebuilding, having 2 or 3 rookies in a position group is OK as in a couple years  maybe half of them turn out to be good.  But for a team in a win now mode , that likely doesn't improve the roster for 2025.

 

Also add to that rookies take extra effort to develop.  In todays NFL there's very limited practice time allowed and teams can't just saw, we'll spend an extra couple practice hours with the rookie as it's not allowed.  It's the same reason why very few backup QB's hold for kicks these days as don't want to take away his limited time to work with the QB's.  For similar reasons, when companies hire apprentices, unless it's a very large company, they usually only hire one until that person is trained.  Same here, teams are better off drafting one and maybe a 2nd with a very low pick that you can be placed on PS and not likely to be poached by another team.

 

Agree too unless they are ready to give up on Carter, not bringing in another 3T. Just yesterday read an article too that commented that one game Carter played as the 1T and did OK so the team may view him as a potential backup in both positions.  Not likely to give up on a fairly high draft pick after only one season either.

[The Jokeman]

Tyleik offers production and upside IMO and one of the few true NTs in this draft that has agility to get to QB too. It's why been calling for us to draft him since college season ended.

[Warriorspikes51]

Awesome thread!!!

 

if CJ West makes it to the 4th, take him.

 

how is Nolen not in the speed category. I thought he ran like a 4.85 or something?

2 hours ago, turbo044 said:

A lot of great options here.  Even if they don't meet the criteria, I would include Grant, Collins and Phillips to this list

absolutely.  

There’s really so many DT’s that I like in this draft

10 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Exactly,  I see posts like this all the time, the Bills should draft/sign draft several  (fill in the position blank)  There has to be an actual roster spot open for that player.  It's different too if a team is rebuilding, having 2 or 3 rookies in a position group is OK as in a couple years  maybe half of them turn out to be good.  But for a team in a win now mode , that likely doesn't improve the roster for 2025.

 

Also add to that rookies take extra effort to develop.  In todays NFL there's very limited practice time allowed and teams can't just saw, we'll spend an extra couple practice hours with the rookie as it's not allowed.  It's the same reason why very few backup QB's hold for kicks these days as don't want to take away his limited time to work with the QB's.  For similar reasons, when companies hire apprentices, unless it's a very large company, they usually only hire one until that person is trained.  Same here, teams are better off drafting one and maybe a 2nd with a very low pick that you can be placed on PS and not likely to be poached by another team.

 

Agree too unless they are ready to give up on Carter, not bringing in another 3T. Just yesterday read an article too that commented that one game Carter played as the 1T and did OK so the team may view him as a potential backup in both positions.  Not likely to give up on a fairly high draft pick after only one season either.

Carter is a fringe player until proven otherwise.

[Wizard]

Good insight. The challenge I see is that based on only these two criterion, a solid and productive player can still be found as shown in the names presented

 

Regardless, I would like to see a double-dip on DT.

[LEBills]

1 minute ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Awesome thread!!!

 

if CJ West makes it to the 4th, take him.

 

how is Nolen not in the speed category. I thought he ran like a 4.85 or something?

absolutely.  

Nolen did not run. I’m kind of projecting that his RAS would have been high enough by watching him play.

 

5 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Tyleik offers production and upside IMO and one of the few true NTs in this draft that has agility to get to QB too. It's why been calling for us to draft him since college season ended.

I don’t mean to say he will be this player, but his early career production was very close to Dexter Lawrence. Lawrence was an A+ athlete too and we don’t have that for Williams though his 10 and 20 yard splits before he fell down were VERY good and he was on track to a good RAS as well. For this class, I would have him just below Nolen and Harmon and think he could be a better pro than college player.

[The Jokeman]

11 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Nolen did not run. I’m kind of projecting that his RAS would have been high enough by watching him play.

 

I don’t mean to say he will be this player, but his early career production was very close to Dexter Lawrence. Lawrence was an A+ athlete too and we don’t have that for Williams though his 10 and 20 yard splits before he fell down were VERY good and he was on track to a good RAS as well. For this class, I would have him just below Nolen and Harmon and think he could be a better pro than college player.

I agree to me Nolen is the top DT in the the class and likely a top 15 pick with Harmon in the top 20-25 range. Graham is in there too but not in my viable Bills options. Williams likely falls lower since no real numbers on him but he passes the eye test when watch him. As he can hold down blockers and knows how to move down the line to bring down runners etc. 

Edited Friday at 03:20 PM by The Jokeman

[nosejob]

31 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Tyleik offers production and upside IMO and one of the few true NTs in this draft that has agility to get to QB too. It's why been calling for us to draft him since college season ended.

What's with the inconsistency concern? Kinda concerning.

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Got it.  The right combination of Cook and Allen traded away should get the Bills all seven.

*
Defense wins championships!

[US Egg]

Draft all 'D' this year, draft all offense next year.

[MJS]

Well, the problem is the list of DT's who fit those criteria but never amounted to anything in the NFL. That is a very long list, I'm sure.

 

Regardless, nice work. I like the analysis.