Bills Draft Strategy vs the Consensus

[FireChans]

I'm not sure how much of you fine folks consume NFL media, but there was a very funny story last year about how Howie Roseman and the Eagles just follow the consensus draft boards, which makes their drafting look great to the people that make those draft boards.

 

Now who knows if that's really true (it's probably not).

 

But I think it would be fun to analyze the past Bills drafts based on consensus boards and see who we "should" have taken vs who we did (I'm only doing the first 3 rounds because its exhausting)

 

So let's begin

 

2024:

#33: Coleman - Big Board (BB):Cooper DeJean DB

#60: Bishop - BB: Ennis Rakestraw JR DB

#95: Carter- BB: Troy Franklin WR

 

2023:

#25: Kincaid - BB: Nolan Smith Jr, EDGE

#59: OCT- BB: OCT!

#91: Dorian Williams - BB: Antonio Johnson, DB

 

2022:

#23: Elam - BB: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE

#63: Cook - BB: Nakobe Dean, ILB

#89: Bernard - BB: Perrion Winfrey, DL

 

2021:

#30: Rousseau - BB: JOK, ILB

#61: Boogie Basham - BB: Creed Humphrey, IOL

#93: Spencer Brown - BB: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB

 

What does this tell us?

 

I don't know tbh. I like both lists about the same. Sorry to waste your time but discuss!

 

 

Edited April 17 by FireChans

[GrimboG]

There was good summary of this on X the other day. Bills have been one of the closest to "consensus" picks in recent years

 

https://x.com/sfdata9ers/status/1909760420036198662

 

 

Edited April 17 by GrimboG
Adding picture

[Einstein]

I remember during the drought someone did an analysis that showed we would have had far more success picking quality players if we just followed kiper/mcshays draft board from TV, rather than the GMs of those eras.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, GrimboG said:

There was good summary of this on X the other day. Bills have been one of the closest to "consensus" picks in recent years

 

https://x.com/sfdata9ers/status/1909760420036198662

 

 

I like this, but the thing about it is it makes it kind of faceless.

 

For example, when I was doing the above work, I wanted to know who we had available and who we took. Now obviously, there are guys that fall on boards due to character/injury stuff which these boards don't really account.  Tariq Woolen really stuck out on the list, but I tried to be faithful to "highest ranked player left." So picking the 90th player at pick 90 is close to consensus, but when the #45 player is sitting there, it's not really the same thing.

 

I think during this draft, I'm gonna look at the 2-3 guys who are left on the consensus board when it gets around to be our pick and compare later.

Edited April 17 by FireChans

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, GrimboG said:

There was good summary of this on X the other day. Bills have been one of the closest to "consensus" picks in recent years

 

https://x.com/sfdata9ers/status/1909760420036198662

 

 

So, the Bills generally are getting good value in the draft, compared to consensus.  That begs the question:  Is Beane doing a good job, or is the consensus wrong?

 

The real question is how well did teams draft when compared the to first three years of performance from the drafted players?  A little tougher question to answer, but that is where the rubber meets the road.  

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

That begs the question:  Is Beane doing a good job, or is the consensus wrong?

 

 

I don't think the consensus is miles out. Beane isn't either. He drafts very few busts. That isn't the issue. Its stars that are lacking from our drafting and maybe that needs a bit less consensus thinking (not saying it does just asking the question)?

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the consensus is miles out. Beane isn't either. He drafts very few busts. That isn't the issue. Its stars that are lacking from our drafting and maybe that needs a bit less consensus thinking (not saying it does just asking the question)?

I agree.  And I don't think it's a lot of stars, either.  I'd like one real stud on the defense.  I think the guys who got extended - Oliver, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, are all really good at doing their jobs, but there isn't a star among them. If things work out well, Bosa could be the guy, and if he is, that could be enough to put them over the top.  

 

That's why I'm a fan of the Bills trading up this year.  Package the first, a second, and some other picks to get up into the teens and go after a guy with the potential to be a real difference make. If the Bills got lucky and landed a guy like a Watt, a Bosa, a Parsons, or a Chris Jones, this defense would be real trouble for several seasons. 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the consensus is miles out. Beane isn't either. He drafts very few busts. That isn't the issue. Its stars that are lacking from our drafting and maybe that needs a bit less consensus thinking (not saying it does just asking the question)?

The really story of that graph is how far to the right the Ravens are. Just constantly getting value out of consensus players.

[GunnerBill]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The really story of that graph is how far to the right the Ravens are. Just constantly getting value out of consensus players.

 

Partly because they are one of the least concerned with positional value. In the last 5 or 6 drafts they have spent firsts on safety, center, tight end and off ball linebacker.

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I'm not sure how much of you fine folks consume NFL media, but there was a very funny story last year about how Howie Roseman and the Eagles just follow the consensus draft boards, which makes their drafting look great to the people that make those draft boards.

 

Now who knows if that's really true (it's probably not).

 

But I think it would be fun to analyze the past Bills drafts based on consensus boards and see who we "should" have taken vs who we did (I'm only doing the first 3 rounds because its exhausting)

 

So let's begin

 

2024:

#33: Coleman - Big Board (BB):Cooper DeJean DB

#60: Bishop - BB: Ennis Rakestraw JR DB

#95: Carter- BB: Troy Franklin WR

 

2023:

#25: Kincaid - BB: Nolan Smith Jr, EDGE

#59: OCT- BB: OCT!

#91: Dorian Williams - BB: Antonio Johnson, DB

 

2022:

#23: Elam - BB: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE

#63: Cook - BB: Nakobe Dean, ILB

#89: Bernard - BB: Perrion Winfrey, DL

 

2021:

#30: Rousseau - BB: JOK, ILB

#61: Boogie Basham - BB: Creed Humphrey, IOL

#93: Spencer Brown - BB: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB

 

What does this tell us?

 

I don't know tbh. I like both lists about the same. Sorry to waste your time but discuss!

 

 

Yeah one thing Beane does do, is alignment "need" with value.  I'd have to look closer at those Eagle rosters heading into draft, to compare to Howie.

 

But looking back at consensus on this board:

2024: Coleman was nowhere near consensus.  Cole was a popular pick at time, Carter was similar to Keon.

 

2023: Kincaid and OCT were by FAR the consensus, 2 players that some didn't think would last to us.  Dorian was a surprise, more than Carter in 2024

 

2022: everyone knew we were going CB rd 1, Cook was popular pick for those that actually evaluate RB talent, and Bernard was a surprise to consensus....but there were few posters that could foresee his future at MLB

 

2021: about as consensus as it gets/and very predictable coming off a weak DE season.  Basham was a consensus 1st rounder, Spencer was a slight unknown to some (smaller school).

 

Bottom line, Beane looks for "untapped" potential and tends to overvalue "need" vs "quality" at times. 

 

I think this years draft is more indicative of 2023, where we could go either way with Round 1 (DL or CB).  Beane hasn't pinned himself in a corner like 2024 or 2022 at least.

[SoonerBillsFan]

46 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  And I don't think it's a lot of stars, either.  I'd like one real stud on the defense.  I think the guys who got extended - Oliver, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, are all really good at doing their jobs, but there isn't a star among them. If things work out well, Bosa could be the guy, and if he is, that could be enough to put them over the top.  

 

That's why I'm a fan of the Bills trading up this year.  Package the first, a second, and some other picks to get up into the teens and go after a guy with the potential to be a real difference make. If the Bills got lucky and landed a guy like a Watt, a Bosa, a Parsons, or a Chris Jones, this defense would be real trouble for several seasons. 

We have a guy on offense that is elite and must be accounted for in Allen.  We have nothing,and have had nothing, on Defense.

 

We need to hit on a guy an OC and QB must account for.  I don't want to hear they are only found in the top 5 picks in the draft.  They can be found later,amd we need to find one.  I don't care ifwehave to trade up to do it.

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  And I don't think it's a lot of stars, either.  I'd like one real stud on the defense.  I think the guys who got extended - Oliver, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, are all really good at doing their jobs, but there isn't a star among them. If things work out well, Bosa could be the guy, and if he is, that could be enough to put them over the top.  

 

That's why I'm a fan of the Bills trading up this year.  Package the first, a second, and some other picks to get up into the teens and go after a guy with the potential to be a real difference make. If the Bills got lucky and landed a guy like a Watt, a Bosa, a Parsons, or a Chris Jones, this defense would be real trouble for several seasons. 

 

 

While I agree about the other three, I think Benford is absolutely a star. I mean, not a top three guy yet, but pretty close to it, particularly after only three years.

 

 

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Partly because they are one of the least concerned with positional value. In the last 5 or 6 drafts they have spent firsts on safety, center, tight end and off ball linebacker.

 

 

Interesting.

 

 

Edited April 18 by Thurman#1

[Shaw66]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

While I agree about the other three, I think Benford is absolutely a star. I mean, not a top three guy yet, but pretty close to it, particularly after only three years.

 

I'm not ready to say absolutely yet, but I don't disagree. 

 

It's interesting to have this discussion with White having just signed. I think Benford could be another White, and by that I mean a star corner in this system but not a top three corner. I say that because at least the way the free agent market has defined the top three, it's always shut-down corners.  I never thought White, good as he was, was a top-three shut-down corner, and I don't think Benford will be, either.  What I've said for a quite a while is that the way McDermott wants to play the game, a shut-down corner doesn't matter to him as much as an all-round guy who is very good at man, zone, tackling, run support, and the team concept. So, while I love Benford and think he's just what the Bills want, I doubt the market ever will recognize him as top-three.  (Actually, with his extension, the market may never have an opportunity to recognize him in his prime.)

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

17 hours ago, FireChans said:

I'm not sure how much of you fine folks consume NFL media, but there was a very funny story last year about how Howie Roseman and the Eagles just follow the consensus draft boards, which makes their drafting look great to the people that make those draft boards.

 

Now who knows if that's really true (it's probably not).

 

But I think it would be fun to analyze the past Bills drafts based on consensus boards and see who we "should" have taken vs who we did (I'm only doing the first 3 rounds because its exhausting)

 

So let's begin

 

2024:

#33: Coleman - Big Board (BB):Cooper DeJean DB

#60: Bishop - BB: Ennis Rakestraw JR DB

#95: Carter- BB: Troy Franklin WR

 

2023:

#25: Kincaid - BB: Nolan Smith Jr, EDGE

#59: OCT- BB: OCT!

#91: Dorian Williams - BB: Antonio Johnson, DB

 

2022:

#23: Elam - BB: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE

#63: Cook - BB: Nakobe Dean, ILB

#89: Bernard - BB: Perrion Winfrey, DL

 

2021:

#30: Rousseau - BB: JOK, ILB

#61: Boogie Basham - BB: Creed Humphrey, IOL

#93: Spencer Brown - BB: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB

 

What does this tell us?

 

I don't know tbh. I like both lists about the same. Sorry to waste your time but discuss!

 

 

It’s hard to say because the jury is still out on many of these guys imo.

[SoonerBillsFan]

Concensus this year is DT,CB, and or WR with the 1st pick.  According to visits, maybe Brane is going to lean toward the concensus this year.   Maybe on our two 2nd rounders as well.

[All_Pro_Bills]

16 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

We have a guy on offense that is elite and must be accounted for in Allen.  We have nothing,and have had nothing, on Defense.

 

We need to hit on a guy an OC and QB must account for.  I don't want to hear they are only found in the top 5 picks in the draft.  They can be found later,amd we need to find one.  I don't care ifwehave to trade up to do it.

Either a game wrecker DT or a shutdown CB in round 1. Beane and the staff must hit on this pick. Its got to be a day one starter.

 

I think the 2 or 3 stars on both sides of the ball, rather than 5 or 6 above average guys has merit.

 

An example in another sport is the Penguins. Crosby, Malkin, and Latang with dozens of supporting players coming in and going out over 20 years. 

Edited Friday at 02:19 PM by All_Pro_Bills

[Fleezoid]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the consensus is miles out. Beane isn't either. He drafts very few busts. That isn't the issue. Its stars that are lacking from our drafting and maybe that needs a bit less consensus thinking (not saying it does just asking the question)?

 

I agree that it may be time to deviate from the consensus to catch a sleeper stud. Problem I see, it becomes a high-risk venture. Especially in later rounds. And if those become busts, the GM starts taking a ton of criticism. They proven they can get the average/above average players. Time to start seeing a couple of big stars on this roster. 

[FireChans]

Just now, Fleezoid said:

 

I agree that it may be time to deviate from the consensus to catch a sleeper stud. Problem I see, it becomes a high-risk venture. Especially in later rounds. And if those become busts, the GM starts taking a ton of criticism. They proven they can get the average/above average players. Time to start seeing a couple of big stars on this roster. 

Best way to catch a sleeper stud outside of blind luck is target players who for reasons other than talent drop.

 

Its not necessarily an ideal option and there's lots of good reasons to not do it, but that's how teams got Tyrann Matheiu in the 3rd, Tyreek in the fifth etc etc.

 

 

[Brand J]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

That's why I'm a fan of the Bills trading up this year.  Package the first, a second, and some other picks to get up into the teens and go after a guy with the potential to be a real difference make. If the Bills got lucky and landed a guy like a Watt, a Bosa, a Parsons, or a Chris Jones, this defense would be real trouble for several seasons. 

I’m not a fan of burning premium picks to trade up. It’s not where you select a player, it’s who you select. Watt went at the end of the first round, Chris Jones was in the 2nd, Hendrickson was a 3rd rounder, etc.

 

Trading up guarantees nothing and if it’s a miss, you just compounded the problem by giving up the chance to draft another difference maker. We’ve gotta get the pick right. Beane has had his chances at additional blue chip players.

[machine gun kelly]

21 hours ago, FireChans said:

I'm not sure how much of you fine folks consume NFL media, but there was a very funny story last year about how Howie Roseman and the Eagles just follow the consensus draft boards, which makes their drafting look great to the people that make those draft boards.

 

Now who knows if that's really true (it's probably not).

 

But I think it would be fun to analyze the past Bills drafts based on consensus boards and see who we "should" have taken vs who we did (I'm only doing the first 3 rounds because its exhausting)

 

So let's begin

 

2024:

#33: Coleman - Big Board (BB):Cooper DeJean DB

#60: Bishop - BB: Ennis Rakestraw JR DB

#95: Carter- BB: Troy Franklin WR

 

2023:

#25: Kincaid - BB: Nolan Smith Jr, EDGE

#59: OCT- BB: OCT!

#91: Dorian Williams - BB: Antonio Johnson, DB

 

2022:

#23: Elam - BB: Jermaine Johnson, EDGE

#63: Cook - BB: Nakobe Dean, ILB

#89: Bernard - BB: Perrion Winfrey, DL

 

2021:

#30: Rousseau - BB: JOK, ILB

#61: Boogie Basham - BB: Creed Humphrey, IOL

#93: Spencer Brown - BB: Ifeatu Melifonwu, CB

 

What does this tell us?

 

I don't know tbh. I like both lists about the same. Sorry to waste your time but discuss!

 

 

Why isn’t Benford in the 2022 draft as he’s a star?  Just because he’s a late rounder doesn’t mean he’s meaningless.