What is your draft doomsday scenario?

[Einstein]

23 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

And that's the rub. Maybe every GM in the NFL was wrong on Elam. That's why you let the board come to you and don't chase needs, IMO.

 

 

If you can’t count on your GM to make the right pick, it doesn’t matter if you’re picking 5th or 50th.

 

Wherever you pick, you need to have a guy that can evaluate talent. And the fact that Beane was never a true scout is telling (imo).

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

We are 13-14 when we allow 130 yards+ since 2020 in the regular season. 

How does this compare to the rest of the league during that span?

 

They probably all have a losing record collectively, imo.

 

QB rushes (which is where Balt and KC made their money against us last playoff run) isn't generally a function of not having a big fat tub of goo at 1t, but the EDGEs poorly containing.

18 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

This isn't meant to be some form of gotcha. 

 

Beane obviously had the choice of Watkins or Pickens when he chose Elam.  People can say Beane's board had Elam higher but I think the need factor was baked into the board then (and I was agreeing with you on not liking that move).

Ah i got what you are saying.

 

You are saying that when they build the board, they are already accounting for subjective stuff like off the field/character/medical/need etc etc and that level of subjectivity in the board from the jump puts you further away from true BPA before the draft even starts.

 

Fair take then.

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

If you can’t count on your GM to make the right pick, it doesn’t matter if you’re picking 5th or 50th.

 

Wherever you pick, you need to have a guy that can evaluate talent. And the fact that Beane was never a true scout is telling (imo).

Everyone drafts busts or disappointments though.

 

If Beane and his team couldn't evaluate talent, I don't think we would have as many quality day 2-3  picks.

 

That's why I disagree with @GunnerBill and @HappyDays. I think Beane's problem is that in round 1-2, his eyes go wide and he presses for needs. As the draft develops, he sticks more to his evaluations independent of needs and generally does better (compared to the rest of the league).

 

 To me, it makes no sense that Beane can somehow identify the large number of late round contributors he finds, but fails to apply that ability in rounds 1-2 UNLESS there's another factor driving his decision-making.

[BigAl2526]

4 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Yeah, but teams didn't run rough shot over the Rams

You're comparing apples to oranges.  First, the Rams during a good part of Aaron Donald's tenure ran a 34 defense.  In 2020, for instance, A'Shawn Robinson was the nose tackle at 6'3" and 320 lbs.  Aaron Donald lined up outside of him.  In 2023 Kobie Turner was the nose tackle for part of the year due in part to an injury to Bobby Brown, who came off IR to start in November.  Turner was a bit undersized at 305 lbs, but then Brown came in to play at 328 lbs.  The defensive end spot in 2023 was variously manned by Earnest Brown at 270 lbs and Marquise Copeland at 287 lbs.  Their outside linebackers were Michael Hoecht at 267 lbs  (Gee, where have we heard that name lately?) and Byron Young at 258 lbs.  So, yes, Aaron Donald was on the light side for a defensive tackle, but overall there was ample beef on the Rams front 5.  I don't mind a light defensive tackle, but if you are light across the line, you are bound to be vulnerable to a power run game.  I'm happy to have Oliver or Nolen line up with a good-sized nose tackle next to him on run plays.  I wouldn't mind both of them together on obvious passing plays, but I think a steady diet of them together on run downs is asking for trouble.

[SydneyBillsFan]

For me it would be a stud DT and a stud CB both being available at 30 - and then we either pick a player in another position OR we trade down.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

I don't really have a doomsday scenario but if we select a S or reach on a CB round 1  (Corners that would be too high at pick 30) Amos, Hairston, Revel, Thomas.

Edited Friday at 04:31 AM by BuffaloBillsGospel2014

[colin]

On 4/17/2025 at 4:37 PM, Mikie2times said:

We have not been a fundamentally sound run defense in years. We depend on leads and gambling with run blitzes to prevent teams from running. Which works against the scrubs we play in the regular season but that's where it ends.

 

We are 13-14 when we allow 130 yards+ since 2020 in the regular season.  We allowed 447 yards rushing to Baltimore in two games last year

 

These are the outputs we have allowed in the playoffs:

 

2020: 163, 150, 114 (L)

2021: 89, 182 (L)

2022: 42, 172 (L)

2023: 106, 146 (L)

2024: 79, 176, 135 (L)

 

So do the math. 13-14 in the regular season when we allow 130+. We have allowed 130+ in 7 of 12 playoff games. In 4 out of 5 of our playoff losses. 

 

I don't disagree but as of last season our biggest issue was pass d.  You often point out how bad we were if you eliminate the turnovers, well we got those turnovers more vs the pass game.  The d was a tire fire for real.

 

I say we trade up for a top flight CB because that's the single position that will make the biggest impact --, rook CBs can ball out the box, big men tend to take more time.

 

I do think we need a lot more talent on the d line too tho, I'm hoping for 2 cbs and 2 or 3 dl taken, with at least 1 cb and 2 DL taken in our first 4 picks 

[billsfan714]

If we pass on a corner in round 1 then there is a run on them in the 2nd and were left with JAGs.

Edited 14 hours ago by billsfan714

[nosejob]

On 4/17/2025 at 3:30 PM, FireChans said:

Here some things I can guarantee.

 

No QBs after Cam Ward will have a first round grade on the Bills draft board. Cam may not either.

 

No punter will have a first round grade on the Bills draft board.

 

I agree that it's not THAT simple to just say "BPA" because I would lean towards premium positions with my picks too. But if it gets to the Bills pick and Starks is there as their last first round grade sticking out like a sore thumb, well, I wouldn't hate it then.

I agree and as another poster above noted TJ's play last year, Starks would be great to spell him and/or play dime. Best I can hope for given McDs speed, Maybe he can not be beat out of a starting role.

[dorquemada]

On 4/16/2025 at 1:19 PM, TheFunPolice said:

the Bills drafting a skinny DT

 

 

 

dont forget high motor

 

and only 1 year of college football

[GASabresIUFan]

On 4/16/2025 at 1:15 PM, 17islongenough said:

Waiting until 1130 for them to pick and then they trade out of round 1

It would be like Deja vu all over again.  (Thanks Yogi)

[nedboy7]

Internet goes down. I have to drive to someone’s house to watch but tree is down and blocking the only road out of my neighborhood. Then I realize I’m out of GSM and have to drink ***** CA wine to cope.  

[ColoradoBills]

On 4/16/2025 at 5:11 PM, Don Otreply said:

“How I stopped worrying and made friends with the bomb”
 

 

 

 

Dr Strangelove 1964…,  

                                        Or how Beane broke our football souls, 

 

 

 

🤣

 

....and our precious bodily fluids.

[Whites Bay]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

....and our precious bodily fluids.

"Our pure essence".

[BillsFooteball]

No Corner and DT by the end of Friday night. 

[Doc Brown]

Lee Evans announcing our day two picks.

[BillsFanForever19]

Adam Schefter's take that we could spend 30 on a LB with Milano and Dorian on the roster.