What is your draft doomsday scenario?

[mannc]

20 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Yeah, the Bills being good has really ruined the draft (and all pre-draft activities) for me. No telling who will be there at 30, or what that talent pool looks like.

 

I guess I'll take it But I do miss the days of diving into all the top-prospect data and locking in on a guy I covet.

It’s also ruined free agency, where teams like the Pats and Jets make big moves and get touted as the team that’s going to end the Bills’ stranglehold on the AFCE…

[FieldGeneral]

Trading down for more picks and then taking a player who doesn't necessarily have starter chops.

[BarleyNY]

My doomsday scenario is the Bills reaching for need rather than taking vastly superior talent on the board. 

[SoTier]

20 minutes ago, mannc said:

It’s also ruined free agency, where teams like the Pats and Jets make big moves and get touted as the team that’s going to end the Bills’ stranglehold on the AFCE…

 

Actually, I rather enjoy being a fan of the chasee rather than one of the chasers.  I like winning the regular season rather than winning free agency or the off season. 

 

Our AFCE rivals sign all these big names (or names of players we've merely heard of) and pick all these highly touted prospects in the draft, and then comes the regular season, and our Bills crush their hopes ... and their spirits ... and send their fans home dreaming of winning the next off-season.

 

Edited Thursday at 02:15 PM by SoTier

[Dillenger4]

Beane trading Cook and our 1st this year, 1st next year and one 2nd this year to The Giants for the #3 pick in 2025. We take the dude who plays CB and WR.

It's my doomsday because FanDuel has it at even right now so no $. It will happen but I want more $$$

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, SoTier said:

 

Actually, I rather enjoy being a fan of the chasee rather than one of the chasers.  I like winning the regular season rather than winning free agency or the off season. 

 

Our AFCE rivals sign all these big names (or names of players we've merely heard of) and pick all these highly touted prospects in the draft, and then comes the regular season, and our Bills crush their hopes ... and their spirits ... and send their fans home dreaming of winning the next off-season.

 

 

That has definitely been a great part of the recent seasons. Especially the last 2 with Jets/Rogers.

 

Specifically thinking about week 7 of this past season. Not only did we get to start the day watching our great Bills team blowout the Titans, 34-10. But then we also got to watch the Jets get trounced on a national stage as the Steelers beat them on SNF, 37-15.

 

Chef's kiss to a perfect day.

[dgrochester55]

Worst case scenario would be going back to the strategy of the drought era and trading up to reach for a player that they could have probably had equal value on if they waited.

 

Regardless of what happens, we can all count on looking through the threads and posts over the draft weekend about how Buffalo will never get to the next level because they drafted an interior lineman in the 5th or 6th instead of that projected 2nd rounder at CB, WR or RB (that the poster usually never heard of until that day) who fell three rounds due to character or injury issues. Its a draft weekend rite of passage.

Edited Thursday at 03:20 PM by dgrochester55

[RyanC883]

17 hours ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Take a look at Dane Brugler's mock draft today.  Harmon, Grant, Johnson, Barron, Hairston all gone.  We select Safety Malaki Starks.

I’d actually be okay with that given what is left.  Starks likely starts here next year.  We have high backup level safeties in this D and it’s an important position in the McD D. 

Edited Thursday at 03:19 PM by RyanC883

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

After secretly reading the 'McDaniel is toast' thread, Beane and McDermott quietly agree to only draft Ivy League walk ons. 🤔😳

[Einstein's Dog]

21 hours ago, Logic said:

1. Brandon Beane leaves a critical position undermanned, telegraphing to every other team in the league that we want to draft a player at that position with our first or second round pick and forcing our hand in doing so even if the true Best Player Available plays a different position.

 

2. Stop me if you've heard this one before: Having only Dane Jackson penciled in as one of your starting outside corners and thus being forced to draft a cornerback late in the first even though there are better players on the board. 

Two different ways of describing the same problem, I suppose. Good thing there's no precedent for this issue, and that history never repeats...
 

I think you and several who are agreeing with you need to understand the change in philosophy of a top team maintaining its stature. 

 

The draft is now a tool for financial cap management.  Leaving a potential premium, high dollar, spot to be filled with a capable draft player is a sensible strategy for a team looking to maintain its position as a top tier team into the future.  Best Player Available is a subjective concept at best.

 

The plan is not to have Dane Jackson as the outside corner in November.  But if you want your draft pick to take that spot you don't bid high for an A Samuel or S Gilmore and block the path of the new guy.  If you don't get one of the players you think can handle it you could always buy one of those two later.

 

And speaking of precedent, the FO just reloaded the core of the reigning AFCE champs by extending the draft picks of Groot, Shakir, Benford, and Bernard at great prices.  Maybe they're striving to keep doing that.

 

IMO, you (and many like you) should work on changing your perception of what a doomsday draft looks like.  In the mock 2.0 after selecting Grant in the first, the masses here didn't even include a CB in their second selection choices - absurd.  The "value" wasn't there they said, totally brainwashed by a groupthink of Mel Kiper wannabes.

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

I think you and several who are agreeing with you need to understand the change in philosophy of a top team maintaining its stature. 

 

The draft is now a tool for financial cap management.  Leaving a potential premium, high dollar, spot to be filled with a capable draft player is a sensible strategy for a team looking to maintain its position as a top tier team into the future.  Best Player Available is a subjective concept at best.

 

The plan is not to have Dane Jackson as the outside corner in November.  But if you want your draft pick to take that spot you don't bid high for an A Samuel or S Gilmore and block the path of the new guy.  If you don't get one of the players you think can handle it you could always buy one of those two later.

 

And speaking of precedent, the FO just reloaded the core of the reigning AFCE champs by extending the draft picks of Groot, Shakir, Benford, and Bernard at great prices.  Maybe they're striving to keep doing that.

 

IMO, you (and many like you) should work on changing your perception of what a doomsday draft looks like.  In the mock 2.0 after selecting Grant in the first, the masses here didn't even include a CB in their second selection choices - absurd.  The "value" wasn't there they said, totally brainwashed by a groupthink of Mel Kiper wannabes.

Man, I just really don't agree with any of this.

 

The history of the NFL is that things can change....fast.

 

When you are penciling in your first round pick to fill in a pre-planned "hole," you are not only limiting flexibility at the pick, but future roster flexibility.

 

Not only can you fail to fill a hole because it's an imperfect science (see Elam, Kaiir), but pigeon-holing yourself for the future is just not a good idea imo.

 

You say BPA is subjective, (and it is) but its also the best science they have. Brandon Beane will have a board, and the players him and the scouts have evaluated will be ranked top to bottom. That is THEIR process and if they go outside it because they need a CB, that is not winning strategy.

Edited Thursday at 04:19 PM by FireChans

[BigAl2526]

12 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

But what about Revel, Morrison, Watts, Nolen, Burden III? Are they available? What other DL prospects are currently being UNDER valued by fans/draftniks? Is TJ Sanders a fringe 1st rd guy? What about, gulp, Landon Jackson? (I fear the Bills love him a lot.) 

 

(Green's not even on a McBeane draft board tbh. But the others comprise an appealing list of pick #30 prospects. To see the scenario where they're all gone at 30 as "doomsday" is a little silly, depending on the availability of players I mentioned above.)

I'd be OK with Revel.  I forgot about him.  I think Morrison is no better than a mid second round value.  Buffalo's need at DT is primarily for a 1 tech.  They still like Oliver to start, despite a down statistical year in 2024, and there is a player or two that pose reasonable rotational guys until Ogunjobi comes off his suspension (DeWayne Carter and Branson Deen).  Nolen has a good skill set, but is too light to serve as a 1 tech.  Oliver and Nolen would be a great rotation at 3 tech, but Buffalo would be left with a need at 1 tech, where the starter is 34 year old Daquan Jones.  He was largely ineffective last season and a strong contributing factor to Buffalo's down year on defense.  The only alternative 1 tech on the roster is Zion Logue.  He has some intriguing traits, but was a UDFA and has notable areas where he needs to develop.  He's only 22 and kind of long and lean for a nose tackle.  Someday he might be good, but I don't want to rely on him now.  Burden scares me a bit.  He's reportedly something of a diva and initially at least is better suited to the slot where Buffalo is already strong with Shakir.  I'd be happier with Embuka, who also plays a lot of slot, but I think he could move outside with little difficulty.  Landon Jackson would not be the worst pick Buffalo could make.  I have seen mocks where he goes quite a bit higher than #30.  TJ Sanders is another under 300 lb 3 tech, and most people see him as a second rounder.

[TheWeatherMan]

Beane has conditioned us to expect a Rd 1 pick that won’t contribute immediately or ever and later round picks that contribute are better picks than the first round pick. 

[kitchen sink]

27 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Beane has conditioned us to expect a Rd 1 pick that won’t contribute immediately or ever and later round picks that contribute are better picks than the first round pick. 

Based on this trend, mine would be any trade up in the first round that costs more than pick 132. 

Edited Thursday at 05:15 PM by kitchen sink

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

I'd be OK with Revel.  I forgot about him.  I think Morrison is no better than a mid second round value.  Buffalo's need at DT is primarily for a 1 tech.  They still like Oliver to start, despite a down statistical year in 2024, and there is a player or two that pose reasonable rotational guys until Ogunjobi comes off his suspension (DeWayne Carter and Branson Deen).  Nolen has a good skill set, but is too light to serve as a 1 tech.  Oliver and Nolen would be a great rotation at 3 tech, but Buffalo would be left with a need at 1 tech, where the starter is 34 year old Daquan Jones.  He was largely ineffective last season and a strong contributing factor to Buffalo's down year on defense.  The only alternative 1 tech on the roster is Zion Logue.  He has some intriguing traits, but was a UDFA and has notable areas where he needs to develop.  He's only 22 and kind of long and lean for a nose tackle.  Someday he might be good, but I don't want to rely on him now.  Burden scares me a bit.  He's reportedly something of a diva and initially at least is better suited to the slot where Buffalo is already strong with Shakir.  I'd be happier with Embuka, who also plays a lot of slot, but I think he could move outside with little difficulty.  Landon Jackson would not be the worst pick Buffalo could make.  I have seen mocks where he goes quite a bit higher than #30.  TJ Sanders is another under 300 lb 3 tech, and most people see him as a second rounder.

Aaron Donald played at around 280-90 lbs. Not saying Nolen is anyway in the same breath of Donald, but the tape don't lie.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

You say BPA is subjective, (and it is) but its also the best science they have. Brandon Beane will have a board, and the players him and the scouts have evaluated will be ranked top to bottom. That is THEIR process and if they go outside it because they need a CB, that is not winning strategy.

 

Teams place prospects in tiers. Top 10, 1st round, borderline 1st/2nd, etc. I don't think within those tiers the specific order is all that important. If Beane has a player sticking out from a higher tier then he should take that player no matter what, and I'm sure he would like he did with Kincaid in 2023 even though TE was not a need, but within the tier he and any GM is going to select the player that fills the biggest need. The difference between the 30th and the 31st graded player is negligible. If the 31st graded player is a CB and Beane feels the talent will drop off quickly at that position then he would be right to take that player.

 

This problem isn't unique to the Bills. Every team enters the draft with a big need. KC needs OL help and everyone knows it. Baltimore needs an outside CB and everyone knows it. It's an inevitable consequence of the FA era that no team can fill all of their needs before the draft.

 

My issue with Beane has never been his draft process, it's been his player evaluation. Elam was a bad pick but Kyler Gordon would have been a very good pick. The process was fine, the scouting was wrong. Similarly this year if we draft a CB as seems likely he needs to pick the right player. Going in with the intention of drafting a CB unless some other player really sticks out on the board is a fine plan IMO.

[nosejob]

I would rather he pick BPA at every spot and if somehow we can pry a 3rd from someone without using both 4s fine. Trading up, trading back is the best way to outsmart oneself  IMO.  2026 picks which are at the end of every round are  better used to create a 3rd this year and / or move up in round 2.

 

At some point we will end up with extra picks next year, like this year. Burn that bridge when we get to it. Quit f..in around, we need to win now or at least have a core going forward. I don't want to hope that MAYBE Josh can end like Peyton. Pick a guy, lose a guy, lose a guy pick a guy. Let Howie run this draft.  2 SBs in 3 years?

 

IDK Beane is gonna have to crush this draft or he is gonna stay on the B team of contenders.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Teams place prospects in tiers. Top 10, 1st round, borderline 1st/2nd, etc. I don't think within those tiers the specific order is all that important. If Beane has a player sticking out from a higher tier then he should take that player no matter what, and I'm sure he would like he did with Kincaid in 2023 even though TE was not a need, but within the tier he and any GM is going to select the player that fills the biggest need. The difference between the 30th and the 31st graded player is negligible. If the 31st graded player is a CB and Beane feels the talent will drop off quickly at that position then he would be right to take that player.

 

This problem isn't unique to the Bills. Every team enters the draft with a big need. KC needs OL help and everyone knows it. Baltimore needs an outside CB and everyone knows it. It's an inevitable consequence of the FA era that no team can fill all of their needs before the draft.

 

My issue with Beane has never been his draft process, it's been his player evaluation. Elam was a bad pick but Kyler Gordon would have been a very good pick. The process was fine, the scouting was wrong. Similarly this year if we draft a CB as seems likely he needs to pick the right player. Going in with the intention of drafting a CB unless some other player really sticks out on the board is a fine plan IMO.

I agree with most of what you say, and you can't ignore need.  It hopefully wouldn't pigeonhole you into a decision where you pass over a great, elite player in a premium position to get one that fits your needs better at a different position - ie the example below.

 

Interesting to me though, that you mention the Elam pick - I was hoping/thinking one of the WR options would be the pick - C Watkins or G Pickens.

[BigAl2526]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Aaron Donald played at around 280-90 lbs. Not saying Nolen is anyway in the same breath of Donald, but the tape don't lie.

Donald was a 3 tech.  My issue is not that Nolen can't play and be a good or even great defensive tackle.  It is that Buffalo's primary need at defensive tackle is for a 1 tech to potentially replace 34 year old Daquan Jones.  If you line up with two sub 300 lb defensive tackles, some teams (Baltimore?) are going to run the ball up your gut all day long and you won't be able to stop them.  If Buffalo were to draft Nolen, they would be needing to look hard for a starting caliber 1 tech later in the draft.  They could do that.  There are a few more in the draft (Tyliek Williams, Alfred Collins, maybe Jamaree Caldwell).  There are some other 1 tech's they could draft, but they are probably going to need some amount of development before you'd want to trust them with starter responsibility.  The point is, the longer you wait, the more pressure you face to find somebody you can reasonably expect to fulfill the need.  Yes, you want to draft the best player available, but if that player does not also meet a significant need, your draft results are less than ideal.  I would rank the Bills draft need this way: 1. cornerback 2. 1 tech DT 3. WR (one that can line up outside and stretch defenses), 4. safety, 5. edge rusher  (preferably one with some bend and explosiveness).  A rotational 3 tech DT, RB (insurance against a James Cook holdout), interior offensive line (to improve depth, a third string TE, are all minor needs.  If you fill them on day three of the draft, great, but you can survive without them. 

Edited Thursday at 07:11 PM by BigAl2526

[FireChans]

56 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

My issue with Beane has never been his draft process, it's been his player evaluation.

It can't be, because we don't know his draft process.

 

I guess what matters is do you believe that Elam was truly sticking out as the best player left on their board when they traded up for him, or did he reach because he needed a CB?