Derek Carr, possibly out for 2025

[Captain Hindsight]

22 hours ago, FireChans said:

And so what?

 

The 2012 Bills were 6-10. The 2013 Bills with a bum in EJ were 6-10. In the grand scheme of it all, it made no difference. 
 

EJ sucked. But he had a shot to be better than Fitzy ever would be. That chance is worth taking every time in a QB league.

 

Treating picking a bust QB in the first as a cardinal sin that must never happen is coward stuff.

 

The long view taken is the correct view. The fear mongering of “taking the wrong QB sets you back 5 years” is just that. 
 

You’d think Bills fans would’ve wised up to this by now. 

The cardinals dumped Rosen after 1 year and took Murray.  You can debate whether Murray is a good QB (I think he is) but it hardly set them back

[FireChans]

36 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

The cardinals dumped Rosen after 1 year and took Murray.  You can debate whether Murray is a good QB (I think he is) but it hardly set them back

I call it drought brain jokingly, but its really just fear-based decision making.

 

Look at how many folks are like "that's how you get another EJ" in this topic alone. Like it's a death knell. Now, for the staff that messes up at QB, it very well may be, but that's not really the fans' concerns.

 

The bigger crime is missing out on a Mahomes or an Allen or a Jackson because you are too paralyzed by fear to take one.  And that's a sentiment that has been echoed in TBD lore forever. It's all documented, you can look back to 2016 and 2017 posts in the Tyrod era. There was a LOT of "what if the rookie is worse?' type posts and not just from the usual suspects. And I get it, in a season to season league we all want the product on the field to be watchable. But the quickest way to be a perennial playoff team is to nail the QB. It seems very quaint now but that's where we were. 

 

If I told you, 5 years from now, the Saints make the playoffs or at least are in the WC mix almost every single season for 10 years straight, what is the singular thing they did to make that possible, the answer is undoubtedly "found a QB." It's not prioritizing continuity in the FO, or that they hired a future HoF coach or that they went BPA through the draft and built a powerhouse team. It's just not.

 

Now the larger point is that's where NFL teams get it wrong sometimes too. They sometimes fail to empower their teams. Schoen and Daboll should feel like they can gamble on Shedeur because that's what matters the most. But they clearly won't, because getting another QB wrong means they are both looking for work in 2026. So instead, they will take Hunter or Carter and pray to god they win 8-9 games and save their asses. And then in next year's QB class, they will be far from the #1 QB in the class and probably not even be able to trade up for the #2 QB. That's what the Saints should avoid, at all costs.  They have the capital to take a QB now, and they should.

 

I have said it once and I will say it again. The best thing Sean McDermott did for the Buffalo Bills was make the playoffs his first season. Not because it was a crazy successful year, but because it gave him (and Beane) the capital in the owners' eyes to gamble hard for Josh Allen. And because they gambled, we all won. It's doesn't matter that he may not be the best or second best HC in the game, or that Beane isn't the best FO guy in the game. It doesn't matter that a division rival had maybe the best coach in the history of football with 20+ years of continuity. It made it all irrelevant.

Edited yesterday at 02:42 PM by FireChans

[NoSaint]

42 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

The cardinals dumped Rosen after 1 year and took Murray.  You can debate whether Murray is a good QB (I think he is) but it hardly set them back

yea, even if it’s not perfect optimization of resources - qb is such an important yes or no question for a franchise over a 15 year run that the only mistake is being scared to take a shot 

[FireChans]

Just for funsies, I did a 2017-2018 deep dive.

 

Guess that poster!

 

”I am adamantly opposed to trading up for any QB except the consensus #1 pick in the draft.  They succeed about 80% of the time, after that the success rate drops like a rock: 50% for QBs in the top half of the first round.  Trading up for the 3rd best QB prospect ... supposing there even is one ... is a waste of resources.  If 2 QBs are already off the board, stay put and see who's available at your spot ... or take a flier on a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round.”

 

“How'd that work out in 2013?  It's not ANY QB but the RIGHT QB that they have to draft”

 

“They have too many holes to fill to waste high draft picks on a QB who's ceiling is "backup QB".  They can draft one of those on Day 2 or Day 3 if they want somebody better than Peterman (which I hope they do but they have bigger needs right now, so I wouldn't be upset if they didn't”

“That's what many fans thought about the 2011 and 2012 drafts, too.  They were howling because the Bills didn't draft Blane Gabbert or Christian Ponder or trade up to get Robert Griffin III.  Aside from Newton, Luck, and maybe Tannehill (depending how you view him vs Dalton and Cousins) the best QBs from 2011 and 2012 came out of rounds other than Round 1 (Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins).”

 

“Well, the disaster that was the Bills in 2013-2014 is a cautionary tale for teams (and their fans) who think sending a  veteran QB packing to save a few $$ because they plan on drafting a QB in the first round”

 

”If they think Roquan Smith is a better LB than Lamar Jackson is a QB, and they go BPA, that works for me.   A first round stud is a stud.   A first round bust is an expensive backup.   In fact, with all the hysteria over 4 or 5 potential first round QBs, maybe taking a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round is a smart move because those guys get lost in the shuffle.”

 

“Only trading a truckload of high draft picks to gamble on an overhyped collegiate QB will get the Bills close to a Super Bowl”

points for being consistent 8 years later I suppose @SoTier

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Just for funsies, I did a 2017-2018 deep dive.

 

Guess that poster!

 

”I am adamantly opposed to trading up for any QB except the consensus #1 pick in the draft.  They succeed about 80% of the time, after that the success rate drops like a rock: 50% for QBs in the top half of the first round.  Trading up for the 3rd best QB prospect ... supposing there even is one ... is a waste of resources.  If 2 QBs are already off the board, stay put and see who's available at your spot ... or take a flier on a QB in the 2nd or 3rd round.”

 

These are the first round QBs plus later round QBs of some significance drafted between 2000 and 2014, and so would have time to develop into pros by 2017 or 2018.

2000 - #18 - Chad Pennington   #199 - Tom Brady  

2001 - #1 - Michael Vick  #32 - Drew Brees

2002 - #1 - David Carr   #3 - Joey Harrington  #32 - Patrick Ramsey  #81 - Josh McKown  #108 - David Garrard

2003 - #1 - Carson Palmer  #7 Byron Leftwich   #19 - Kyle Boller   #22 - Rex Grossman

2004 - #1 - Eli Manning  #4 - Phillip Rivers  #11 - Ben Roethlisberger  #22 - JP Losman  #90 - Matt Schaub

2005 - #1 - Alex Smith   #24 - Aaron Rodgers  #25- Jason Campbell #106 - Kyle Orton  #213 - Derek Anderson  #230 - Matt Cassel  #250 - Ryan Fitzpatrick

2006 - #3 - Vince Young  #10 - Matt Leinart  #11 - Jay Cutler

2007 - #1 - Ja'Marcus Russell  #22 - Brady Quinn

2008 - #3 - Matt Ryan  #18 Joe Flacco

2009 - #1 - Matthew Stafford  #5 - Mark Sanchez  #17 - Josh Freeman 

2010 - #1 - Sam Bradford  #25 - Tim Tebow

2011 - #1 - Cam Newton  #8 - Jake Locker  #10 - Blaine Gabbert  #12 - Christian Ponder #35- Andy Dalton #36- Colin Kaepernick #180 - Tyrod Taylor

2012 - #1 - Andrew Luck  #2 - Robert Griffin III  #8 Ryan Tannehill  #22 - Brandon Weeden  #57 - Brock Osweiller  #75 - Russell Wilson  #88 - Nick Foles #102 -Kirk Cousins

2013 - #16 - EJ Manuel  #39 - Geno Smith

2014 - #3 - Blake Bortles  #22 - Johnny Manziel   #32 - Teddy Bridgewater  #36 - Derek Carr  #62 - Jimmy Garoppolo

 

The third best first round QBs were Patrick Ramsey, Kyle Boller, Ben Roethlisberger, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, Josh Freeman, Blaine Gabbert, Ryan Tannehill and Teddy Bridgewater.   Only Ben Roethlisberger was worth trading up to get (and I think Pittsburgh did).   

 

FTR, the 3rd first round QBs between 2015 and 2023 were:  Paxton Lynch (#26 in 2016), Deshaun Watson (#12 in 2017), Josh Allen (#7 in 2018), Dwayne Haskins (#15 in 2019), Justin Herbert (#6 in 2020), Trey Lance (#3 in 2021), and Anthony Richardson (#4 in 2022).  Only Allen and Herbert were worth trading up to get.

 

I'll stand by what I said back in 2018.   Trading up to take the third best QB in a draft is a very iffy proposition.

 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

“How'd that work out in 2013?  It's not ANY QB but the RIGHT QB that they have to draft”

 

That's as true in 2025 as it was in 2018.  

 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

“They have too many holes to fill to waste high draft picks on a QB who's ceiling is "backup QB".  They can draft one of those on Day 2 or Day 3 if they want somebody better than Peterman (which I hope they do but they have bigger needs right now, so I wouldn't be upset if they didn't”

 

I have always owned that I thought that drafting Allen was a mistake in 2018.  I didn't think that the Bills "drafted the wrong Josh" because I thought that both would be busts.  I was wrong, and I've always acknowledged that.

 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

“That's what many fans thought about the 2011 and 2012 drafts, too.  They were howling because the Bills didn't draft Blane Gabbert or Christian Ponder or trade up to get Robert Griffin III.  Aside from Newton, Luck, and maybe Tannehill (depending how you view him vs Dalton and Cousins) the best QBs from 2011 and 2012 came out of rounds other than Round 1 (Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins).”

 

Nothing that's transpired since has changed the truth of that statement.

 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

 

“Well, the disaster that was the Bills in 2013-2014 is a cautionary tale for teams (and their fans) who think sending a  veteran QB packing to save a few $$ because they plan on drafting a QB in the first round”

 

The Bills cut Fitzpatrick prior to the 2013 draft because they planned on drafting a QB in the 2013 draft, regardless of the quality of the QBs in that class.  Manuel was unimpressive as a rookie, and he didn't improve as a sophomore.   The Bills replaced him with Kyle Orton who was simply playing for a paycheck ... and it cost the Bills the win that would have put them in the playoffs.

 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

 

”If they think Roquan Smith is a better LB than Lamar Jackson is a QB, and they go BPA, that works for me.   A first round stud is a stud.   A first round bust is an expensive backup.   In fact, with all the hysteria over 4 or 5 potential first round QBs, maybe taking a guy in the 2nd or 3rd round is a smart move because those guys get lost in the shuffle.”

 

What's wrong with that?   I'll stand by that all day, every day.  If a team needs players at several positions, they should take the one they like best for one of those positions.   If New Orleans loves Sanders, they should take him at #9, but they shouldn't take him just because they need a QB.  With their roster, they'll have other opportunities to pick a QB early in Round 1 in the next couple of years.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

I'll stand by what I said back in 2018.   Trading up to take the third best QB in a draft is a very iffy proposition.

"Ahhhh risk!"

 

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

That's as true in 2025 as it was in 2018.  

"Ahhhh risk!"

 

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Nothing that's transpired since has changed the truth of that statement.

"Ahhhh risk!"

 

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

The Bills cut Fitzpatrick prior to the 2013 draft because they planned on drafting a QB in the 2013 draft, regardless of the quality of the QBs in that class.  Manuel was unimpressive as a rookie, and he didn't improve as a sophomore.   The Bills replaced him with Kyle Orton who was simply playing for a paycheck ... and it cost the Bills the win that would have put them in the playoffs.

"Ahhhh risk!"

 

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

What's wrong with that?   I'll stand by that all day, every day.  If a team needs players at several positions, they should take the one they like best for one of those positions.   If New Orleans loves Sanders, they should take him at #9, but they shouldn't take him just because they need a QB.  With their roster, they'll have other opportunities to pick a QB early in Round 1 in the next couple of years.

"Ahhhh risk!"

 

No one has ever argued that trading up to draft  or drafting a rookie QB high is without risk.

 

The distinction that you failed to grasp in 2017 and fail to grasp today is that the alternative of never trying is FAR worse.

 

If you had your way, we would've have drafted Roquan Smith and Mason Rudolph, would be probably on our 3rd HC and 2nd GM since McD and Beane and probably a perennial bottom-feeder yet again.

 

But we aren't. Because we took a risk. A risk that somehow still petrifies you when the alternative is uh just being ass like you would be anyway.

[Billl]

Buffalo drafting EJ Manuel shouldn’t be a cautionary tale for NO.  If anything, it should encourage them to take a swing at QB.  There wasn’t a player taken in the next 10 picks that would have helped Buffalo in the slightest.  Hopkins went 27th with Ertz and Darius Slay going at 35 and 36.  None of them were likely in consideration at 16 even if the Bills passed on a QB, so literally nothing of value was lost by taking a swing on EJ.  This is a similar draft with most “experts” saying that there isn’t much in the way of high end talent out there.  The blue chip prospects are going to be long gone by pick 9, so the opportunity cost of missing on a QB is pretty low.

[SoTier]

15 hours ago, Billl said:

Buffalo drafting EJ Manuel shouldn’t be a cautionary tale for NO.  If anything, it should encourage them to take a swing at QB.  There wasn’t a player taken in the next 10 picks that would have helped Buffalo in the slightest.  Hopkins went 27th with Ertz and Darius Slay going at 35 and 36.  None of them were likely in consideration at 16 even if the Bills passed on a QB, so literally nothing of value was lost by taking a swing on EJ.  This is a similar draft with most “experts” saying that there isn’t much in the way of high end talent out there.  The blue chip prospects are going to be long gone by pick 9, so the opportunity cost of missing on a QB is pretty low.

 

FYI ... there are other positions that are important besides offensive skill positions.   Here are just 3 who could have helped the Bills.  All started 16 games for their teams as rookies.  EJ Manuel only started 17 games for the Bills in 4 years.

• Justin Pugh was taken at #19; he started at guard as a rookie for the Giants, and was a starter at both guard positions all 11 of his seasons with the Giants and Cardinals.  
• Kyle Long was drafted at #20; he started all 16 games at right tackle for the Bears as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl three straight seasons.  He was a 2nd team All Pro in 2014.  His career was shortened by a series of injuries after the 2015 season, but he still played 7 seasons in the NFL, all as a starter.
• Desmond Trufant was drafted at #22; he started all 16 games as a rookie, made the Pro Bowl once, and was a starting DB for 8 seasons with Atlanta and Detroit.

[FireChans]

40 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

FYI ... there are other positions that are important besides offensive skill positions.   Here are just 3 who could have helped the Bills.  All started 16 games for their teams as rookies.  EJ Manuel only started 17 games for the Bills in 4 years.

• Justin Pugh was taken at #19; he started at guard as a rookie for the Giants, and was a starter at both guard positions all 11 of his seasons with the Giants and Cardinals.  
• Kyle Long was drafted at #20; he started all 16 games at right tackle for the Bears as a rookie and made the Pro Bowl three straight seasons.  He was a 2nd team All Pro in 2014.  His career was shortened by a series of injuries after the 2015 season, but he still played 7 seasons in the NFL, all as a starter.
• Desmond Trufant was drafted at #22; he started all 16 games as a rookie, made the Pro Bowl once, and was a starting DB for 8 seasons with Atlanta and Detroit.

The Saints shouldn’t draft a QB. 

 

They could miss out on a 1 time Probowl CB or a solid guard and win only 2 games instead of 3.