JETS: Pennington and his surgery

[nick in* england]

ESPN

 

Just read the attached on ESPN. It has t raise questions about how good Pennington is going to be this season and over upcoming seasons...

 

He is 29, having just gone through 'invasive and extensive' surgery, has never started 16 games in a season, took a long time to develop, has a weak arm and questionable deep threat. He's got some positives for sure, good completion %age and touch on dinks and dunks, but he's just not what I want in a QB and I think it bodes really well for the Bills.

 

Herm Edwards reckons Chad is at about 89%, so read way below 50% in where he should be for this time of the year. Chad is still going to be rehabbing his shoulder all the way through camp - and that's just not what you need. You need a healthy QB who can assert himself and give you confidence in him throughout July and August so you go into the season on a high. Chad's not going to do that IMO.

 

AFC East Defences should be able to really clamp down on the Jets O package this year, they will be forced to go more and more with the ageing CMart and if that fails they have to try and go for it without the legit ability to go deep to their new speedsters... The Jets never made it over the hump and I predict this is the first year of their decline.

Edited June 30, 2005 by Nick in England

[nick in* england]

ROFL - look at the title!! Damn typo made it look like Chad had an op on his pecker cos he's having problem with his tiny army!

 

For those who missed it - I originally put "JETS: Pennington and jis surgery" in the subject line...

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

ESPN

 

and that's just not what you need. You need a healthy QB who can assert himself and give you confidence in him throughout July and August so you go into the season on a high.

371872[/snapback]

 

I'm just not so sure about this assertion. Certainly the Pats winning the SB with Brady the last two years in a row describes this situation and QB performnce. However, a consideration of the recent history of QBs and SB winners points in a different direction.

 

04- Brady and agree with your premise

03- Brady as well and the premise holds

02- Johnson as QB and this two time reject by other teams performed well with his team but even when healthy I am not sure that his play and ability inspired the kind of confidence you are talking about. Confidence on this team came from their belief in Warrne Sapp and the D.

01- Brady again but I don't think anyone can talk yet about this seond year QB inspiring anty confidence in anyone even given the team's Ws with him in place. If your thoughts drove decision makling on this team Bledsoe would have been their starter in the SB. Instead it was actually that BB showed confidence in this team being a TEAM that describes their SB run.

00- Trent Dilfer is the poster boy for describing a lack of confidence in the QB to do more except not make mistakes and correctly any confidence came from a belief in Marvin Lewis and an overwhelming D.

99- Finally one needs to look back ino the last century to find a QB besides the vet brady whom a team is led by and believes in him as te Rams did with Warner (who ironicslly replaced their orginal designated starter Trent Green and Warner came out of nowhere and was paid the NFL minimum to QB the team to the SB just like Dilfer did and Bray virtually did getting a chump change bonus before he showed confidence was correctly place in him.

 

Pennington looks like toast as an SB winner, however, one needs to go back to Elway winning it all to find aQB who began the seson inked in as the teams starter to identify the QB requirements you describe as being the key to a team beginning their SB glory run.

 

Brady is the best and only recent eample of a well-respected stud QB being the clear team leader on an SB winning team even as training camp began for an SB winning team and even this example probably is closer to the Jets situation (Pennington as Bledsoe) that what you describe.

[Ennjay]

The Jets are always a mystery to me. It seems every year their talent gets diluted and they have significant in-season injuries (like last year, Pennington and Abraham). Herm doesn't strike me as a brilliant planner or organizer, and firing his coordinators the last two off-seasons (Ted Cottrell and Paul Hackett) is a way of saying he wasn't responsible for the offense or the defense. Bradway doesn't pull rabbits out of hats on the scouting front (Victor Hobson?). They get more dependent every year on a RB (Curtis Martin) who is an all-time great but is still getting up there. Yet there they are signing Pete Kendall, and Martin is always productive, and never mind they haven't had a receiving TE since Rich Caster (or was Jerome Barkum the TE?), and they still make the playoffs with some regularity -- last year with a QB who couldn't throw deep. Herm just must be the best thing going in the lockerroom.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Like NE (winner of 3 of the past 4 SBs) they had Brady when their plan A at QB got damaged.

 

Like TB they found their QB after he had been cut by 2 other teams

 

Like the Ravens they found a QB capable of leading them to an SB win from the cap casuaties and paid him the vet minimum.

 

Like the Rams whose planned QB star got injured they found a QB capable of bringing them to an SB win by paying a recent former box boy at Wal-Mart the vet minimum to lead them.

 

If past experience is any guide, the key to an NYJ SB run is not whether Pennington delivers or not but whether they have a good plan B.

 

As a Bills fan I have grave doubts whether this near rookie QB Losman we drafted in the 1st will break the streak going back to failed 1st round QB choices by teams since Dallas chose Aikman in the 1st and he brought them an SB win. However, i feel very good about our plan B with Holcomb if Losman develops the way everybody else has since 1989 for the team that drafted a 1st round QB.

 

Lat round choices like Delhomme or late picks like Brady have been far more successful than the heavy investments in a McNabb (or Palmer, or Smith or even Leaf and Manning) when it comes to SB apearances not to mention wins.

 

I know little about NYJ but if you accurately want to assess their prospects look at their plan B at QB rather than at Pennington.

[nick in* england]

OK so lets look at the Jets backup at QB:

 

Jay Fiedler

Brooks Bollinger

 

If Pennington goes down - that pair isn't going to carry them anywhere - let alone on a Frank Reich-esque Superbowl run.

[jad1]

Lat round choices like Delhomme or late picks like Brady have been far more successful than the heavy investments in a McNabb (or Palmer, or Smith or even Leaf and Manning) when it comes to SB apearances not to mention wins.

 

Delhomme is a better investment than McNabb? Delhomme has made it to the playoffs once, while McNabb has carried the Eagles to 4 NFC championship games.

 

There is no rule when trying to find a SB winning QB. 6th round picks have won it, as well as 1st picks overall. The thing that matters most, in the 1st or last round is to draft a good player.

 

Keep in mind that's it's a hell of a lot easier to draft a starting-quality QB in the 1st round than the 6th.

[Rubes]

I have heard orthopedic surgeons say that shoulder reconstruction is a lot tougher for QBs to come back from than knee reconstructions are for other players. It just takes a longer time to get their strength and accuracy back, if they get it all the way back at all.

[Ennjay]

Jay Fiedler is just good enough to let you worry about something else for a few minutes instead of obsessing about your quarterback. Brooks Bollinger is not an NFL QB.

 

The Jets need Pennington if they want to make any noise this year. As good as they think Vilma is, they don't have a D that can win 10 games by itself yet. (Assuming 10 wins is enough for the playoffs in the AFC.)

[MartyBall4Buffalo]

Other than the 2002 season. Chad Pennington has been a really mediocre quaterback, yes his completion % is high, but since week 13 of 2003 pennington has thrown 18 td's and 17 interceptions. Considering the contract given to him seems hardly worthy of it.

 

 

The Jets are anchored by a solid ground game and defense. Good enough that if they get even mediocre play from the qb position they can win 8-10 games.

 

 

However the problem becomes for the jets. That 9 times out of 10 if pennington is in a must win game for the jets, that the jets won't win. While he's a smart qb with tremendous accuracy on short routes, when it comes to stretching defenses down the field he fails miserably. What I've noticed is teams that effectivly blitz pennington usually win against jets fairly easy. In our home game against the jets last year, I was actually more worried about losing when quincy carter was in, as carter had the arm to stretch our defense, while Pennington had the arm to flutter a 15 yard pass that was picked off by lawyer milloy who was sitting on the ground.

 

 

Now with this surgery the qb issue becomes a bigger one for the jets. Will Pennington regain even the mediocre arm strength he had, or will it become worse, and if so how will this effect the new open offense that mike heimerdinger plans to run, with more emphasis on intermediate and deep passes, and away from pennington's strength of throwing to his backs and te's. I look for the jets to take a step back this season, as penningtons weaknesses become more exposed

[EndZoneCrew]

The Jets are anchored by a solid ground game

372286[/snapback]

 

....and how much longer can C.Mart sustain that high level?...he had a great year but all of those carries have to catch up with him eventually....especially at his age......and did they not get rid of LaMont Jordan in the offseason....that is a big question mark in the near future!

[BADOLBILZ]

ESPN

 

Just read the attached on ESPN. It has t raise questions about how good Pennington is going to be this season and over upcoming seasons...

 

He is 29, having just gone through 'invasive and extensive' surgery, has never started 16 games in a season, took a long time to develop, has a weak arm and questionable deep threat. He's got some positives for sure, good completion %age and touch on dinks and dunks, but he's just not what I want in a QB and I think it bodes really well for the Bills.

 

Herm Edwards reckons Chad is at about 89%, so read way below 50% in where he should be for this time of the year. Chad is still going to be rehabbing his shoulder all the way through camp - and that's just not what you need. You need a healthy QB who can assert himself and give you confidence in him throughout July and August so you go into the season on a high. Chad's not going to do that IMO.

 

AFC East Defences should be able to really clamp down on the Jets O package this year, they will be forced to go more and more with the ageing CMart and if that fails they have to try and go for it without the legit ability to go deep to their new speedsters... The Jets never made it over the hump and I predict this is the first year of their decline.

371872[/snapback]

 

I've always been pleased that the Jets had so much invested in Pennington. He has all the intangibles of a champion, but he's got a weak arm and a fragile body. He's too good to get rid of, but it would be very tough to get thru an extended playoff run without finding somebody who feasts on a QB with a weak arm. Best of all, you know those flutterballs don't travel well in Orchard Park on most autumn days.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Delhomme is a better investment than McNabb?  Delhomme has made it to the playoffs once, while McNabb has carried the Eagles to 4 NFC championship games.

 

There is no rule when trying to find a SB winning QB.  6th round picks have won it, as well as 1st picks overall.  The thing that matters most, in the 1st or last round is to draft a good player. 

 

Keep in mind that's it's a hell of a lot easier to draft a starting-quality QB in the 1st round than the 6th.

372100[/snapback]

 

Again... if you read the post it is not simply a comparison of Delhomme vs. McNabb (one obviously chooses McNabb if you are simply comparing talent) but a theory as to how QB investments overall work out. There are multiple 1st round QBs who have had some success in the NFL FOR THE TEAM WHICH DRAFTED THEM as in addition to McNabb players like Culpepper and Vick got their teams to the conference championship.

 

However, the conventional wisdom (as demonstrated by the theory in the orginal post) is that one needs to invest in a marquee QB in order to get to and win the SB. This has simply been untrue in recent history as for the most part teams which draft a QB in the 1st round (Indy with Manning, Philly with McNabb for example to site the most successful ones) generally sre only one of the four final teams.

 

I consistently (too consistently for many tastes) argue that one does not need to invest heavily in a marquee QB (you have to pay heavy for success as seen in the Brady case, but I would not call the NE investment in him heavy until his most recent deal this past off-season since they invested lightly and easily managably in him both as a rookie and in his second contract).

 

If one believed the conventional QB wisdom then the method of winning the SB would be to draft a Manning, a Culpepper, a Leftwich or a Vick in the first and watch the SB trophies mount up. However, alll of these stud QBs share something in common that they have never even seen an SB game.

 

The Delhomme example (example rather than rule) is important because he represents a QB strategy which has succeeded in getting your team to the SB multiple times and FAR more frequently than draft ing a QB in the first round in that if you get a player like 6th round draft pick Brady, cap casualty Dilfer or Wal-Mart box boy Warner and pay them near or at the NFL minimum so you can build a TEAM within you salary cap limits this is how teams have won the SB.

 

I'm pretty sure that like most NFL youngsters JP will go through a learning phase this year. I think we can easily survive this is we can rely upon the rest of the team. However, the big challenge for the Bills led by JP is whether he can become the1st QB drafted since Dallas chose Aikman to lead the team which drafted him to an SB win.

 

I'm not slamming 1st round QBs, i just think that a team is far better off finding thi talent and managing his contract from the reject piles of other teams (Dilfer for example or Brett Favre or Steve Young) or because he forces a trade from the team which drafted him (Elway for example) than picking him yourself. Whether you pick a Leaf who sucks or a Manning whose contract is a rate-limiting factor on Indy you end up with the same amount of SB wins and appearances) or even playoff wins until year before last).

[jad1]

FFs, again, here's your exact quote:

 

Lat round choices like Delhomme or late picks like Brady have been far more successful than the heavy investments in a McNabb (or Palmer, or Smith or even Leaf and Manning) when it comes to SB apearances not to mention wins.

 

So, while Brady has been certainly more successful than McNabb, Delhomme has not been, as your quote indicates.

 

It's easy to look at the way that Pats, Rams, and Bucs aquired their QBs and say, they won the SB with a "non-marquee" QB, this is the way it should be done.

 

But for every Brady, Warner, and Brad Johnson, there are dozens of Fiedlers, Garcias, Fluties, Grieses, Ferottes, Petes, Nagels, Feelys, and the like.

 

Just take a look at the non-first rounders that the Bills have had start for them immediately before and after Kelly: Ferragamo, Dufek, Kofler, Collins, and Johnson (already mentioned Flutie above). Sound like SB winning QBs to you?

 

The underlying truth here is that counting on a late round pick or UFA to come in and start for an NFL team is a MUCH bigger crapshoot than drafting a first round QB.

 

And that's why GMs use the first round to select their QB. Of course the ultimate goal for any player drafted or FA signed is to have that guy help the team get to the SB. But the more immediate question is can the player make it at the NFL level. The the first round offers the largest pool of players who can meet that need.

 

And while you dismiss first round QBs that move to other teams, it further proves that the size of the talent pool for QBs in the 1st round is much bigger than the QB late-round or UFA talent pool.

 

And that's ulitmately why GMs take QBs in the first round. Because it's just easier to find a good QB in the 1st round than in other rounds or UFA. And no matter how many teams strike it rich with a Brady or Warner, they're still going to play the odds and pick an Eli Manning or Ben Roethlisberger in the first round, rather than try to make a go with an UFA like Brunell, Garcia, or old Warner.

 

 

Again... if you read the post it is not simply a comparison of Delhomme vs. McNabb (one obviously chooses McNabb if you are simply comparing talent) but a theory as to how QB investments overall work out. There are multiple 1st round QBs who have had some success in the NFL FOR THE TEAM WHICH DRAFTED THEM as in addition to McNabb players like Culpepper and Vick got their teams to the conference championship.

 

However, the conventional wisdom (as demonstrated by the theory in the orginal post) is that one needs to invest in a marquee QB in order to get to and win the SB. This has simply been untrue in recent history as for the most part teams which draft a QB in the 1st round (Indy with Manning, Philly with McNabb for example to site the most successful ones) generally sre only one of the four final teams.

 

I consistently (too consistently for many tastes) argue that one does not need to invest heavily in a marquee QB (you have to pay heavy for success as seen in the Brady case, but I would not call the NE investment in him heavy until his most recent deal this past off-season since they invested lightly and easily managably in him both as a rookie and in his second contract).

 

If one believed the conventional QB wisdom then the method of winning the SB would be to draft a Manning, a Culpepper, a Leftwich or a Vick in the first and watch the SB trophies mount up.  However, alll of these stud QBs share something in common that they have never even seen an SB game.

 

The Delhomme example (example rather than rule) is important because he represents a QB strategy which has succeeded in getting your team to the SB multiple times and FAR more frequently than draft ing a QB in the first round in that if you get a player like 6th round draft pick Brady, cap casualty Dilfer or Wal-Mart box boy Warner and pay them near or at the NFL minimum so you can build a TEAM within you salary cap limits this is how teams have won the SB.

 

I'm pretty sure that like most NFL youngsters JP will go through a learning phase this year.  I think we can easily survive this is we can rely upon the rest of the team. However, the big challenge for the Bills led by JP is whether he can become the1st QB drafted since Dallas chose Aikman to lead the team which drafted him to an SB win.

 

I'm not slamming 1st round QBs, i just think that a team is far better off finding thi talent and managing his contract from the reject piles of other teams (Dilfer for example or Brett Favre or Steve Young) or because he forces a trade from the team which drafted him (Elway for example) than picking him yourself. Whether you pick a Leaf who sucks or a Manning whose contract is a rate-limiting factor on Indy you end up with the same amount of SB wins and appearances) or even playoff wins until year before last).

372593[/snapback]

[ganesh]

But for every Brady, Warner, and Brad Johnson, there are dozens of Fiedlers, Garcias, Fluties, Grieses, Ferottes, Petes, Nagels, Feelys, and the like. 

 

372754[/snapback]

 

And for every Brady, Warner, there is a John Elway, Terry Bradshaw,

Brett Favre....

 

The bottom line is there is no real one way to win....You win by in

what you believe....Even Kelly and Marino would have won their

share of SBs if other parts of the team had not let them down...

 

To be sucecssful in the NFL, you need to have a smart team, smart

coaches and have the coaches to get the players to buy into their system.

[sfladave]

Jay Fiedler is just good enough to let you worry about something else for a few minutes instead of obsessing about your quarterback. 

372149[/snapback]

 

If Pennington goes down the jets are in deep trouble. Fiedler doesn't even rank as well as a backup QB in the CFL since he was injured 2 1/2 years ago.

[IDBillzFan]

OK so lets look at the Jets backup at QB:

 

Jay Fiedler

Brooks Bollinger

 

If Pennington goes down - that pair isn't going to carry them anywhere - let alone on a Frank Reich-esque Superbowl run.

372030[/snapback]

I don't necessarily agree with that last line. The Jets got themself a backup quarterback who has only lost to us once...out of HOW many games and up until HOW recently? If I'm not mistaken, he's 5-1 or 6-1 against us. Consider that he has gameplanned for every inter-divisional rival HOW many times? AND, he's coming from one inter-divisional rival and bringing all that opponent knowledge, AND he has only lost once to another inter-divisional opponent (in how many at bats?)...that's not a bad fight to be having from the inside out of the division.

 

Plus, I look at it like this: as a backup, is he any better or worse of a choice than Kerry Collins was in Oakland? Now look at them on offense. So, I think that was a good pick-up by the Jets, and I suspect if Pennington gets hurt and Fiedler has to come in for him, then the Jets will have a quarterback problem on their hands...which is the only downside to this...and not much of a downside because it means they must be winning with the backup. And as we all know, as long as we're winning, we don't give a crap if the Pixie fairy dude is our center.