Trade-up for Travis Hunter

[BillsFanForever19]

On 4/11/2025 at 7:35 PM, TheWeatherMan said:

3 x 1st round picks to get into the top 4 is most definitely something a team drafting in the top 4 and doesn’t want to be in the top 4 would consider.
 

Closest example would be the 2011 Draft Falcons traded #27, a 2nd, 4th and the next years 1st to move up to #6 for Julio Jones.  

 

It was 2 1st's, a 2nd, and 2 4ths. And that was 27 to 6. This is 30 to 4. Which using the Jimmy Johnson model OP is using (which is antiquated btw) would be an additional 260 points. Which equates to a bottom 2nd/top 3rd on top of that package.

 

And Julio Jones is pretty much the *only* example. Everyone brings it up every year as if it's the norm. That was about a decade and a half ago. This is even more than that. Would be unprecedented in the modern era. People almost never move down the board that much. We'd really have to make it worth their wile.

Edited 13 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[BillsFanForever19]

29 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The draft value chart puts a future 1st at 700 points which is approximately worth the 26th pick which is valued at 700 points exactly. The reason the value chart puts it at 700 vs. being worth one round less is that a future 1st has a chance to be worth 3000 points. The value chart I put it was an estimate so it's flexible but I think as an approximation of what the Bills would have to give up to trade up into the top 5 it is fair (pick 30, 56, 62 and a future 1st) you can quibble if the Bills would have to include other late round selections or not but I think it is in the range of what a trade would cost. 

 

I don't see that being a thought for a Bills pick. Again, for the past 4 years - we've averaged at the 28th pick. I don't see a team looking at our future 1st and going "maybe it turns into a Top 5 - we'll give them full value for that pick next year".

 

Like Weather said, the closest we have to compare it to is the Julio trade from 27 to 6. That was two 1st's, a 2nd, and 2 4th's. This is 30 to 4. Which, again, is a differential of a Bottom 2nd/Top 3rd on top of that. 2 1st's, 2 2nds isn't enough.

[djp14150]

Id love to get him.

 

It would cost this years 1st, 2 2nds, and 1sts in 26 and 27

[billsfan89]

15 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't see that being a thought for a Bills pick. Again, for the past 4 years - we've averaged at the 28th pick. I don't see a team looking at our future 1st and going "maybe it turns into a Top 5 - we'll give them full value for that pick next year".

 

Like Weather said, the closest we have to compare it to is the Julio trade from 27 to 6. That was two 1st's, a 2nd, and 2 4th's. This is 30 to 4. Which, again, is a differential of a Bottom 2nd/Top 3rd on top of that. 2 1st's, 2 2nds isn't enough.

 

Effectively a 700 point evaluation would put it at the 26th overall pick which is a divisional round eliminated team. So you would be looking at picks 26, 30, 56, and 62 for pick 4. Now you could argue on the margins that the Bills would have to include some more late or mid round picks but as I said for an estimate I don't think it is far off. And considering that a future 1st hold the value of possibly being the first overall pick due to injuries then I think a 700 point evaluation is fair. 

[Doc Brown]

Watch the OP look like a genius if this somehow happens.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Effectively a 700 point evaluation would put it at the 26th overall pick which is a divisional round eliminated team. So you would be looking at picks 26, 30, 56, and 62 for pick 4. Now you could argue on the margins that the Bills would have to include some more late or mid round picks but as I said for an estimate I don't think it is far off. And considering that a future 1st hold the value of possibly being the first overall pick due to injuries then I think a 700 point evaluation is fair. 

 

Yea that isn't how NFL teams actually value future firsts in trade ups. They discount the value.

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

3 x 1st round picks to get into the top 4 is most definitely something a team drafting in the top 4 and doesn’t want to be in the top 4 would consider.
 

Closest example would be the 2011 Draft Falcons traded #27, a 2nd, 4th and the next years 1st to move up to #6 for Julio Jones.  

 

None of the scenarios make sense though.  Browns and Giants both have regimes on the hotseat. They are not trading that far back rather than taking Carter or Hunter for future value because if they don't win this year they are toast. 

 

And if Hunter is still there at #4 there will be teams much closer to there calling the Patriots. I think they'd much prefer to slide to #12 for example and let the Cowboys go up.

[TheWeatherMan]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

None of the scenarios make sense though.  Browns and Giants both have regimes on the hotseat. They are not trading that far back rather than taking Carter or Hunter for future value because if they don't win this year they are toast. 

 

And if Hunter is still there at #4 there will be teams much closer to there calling the Patriots. I think they'd much prefer to slide to #12 for example and let the Cowboys go up.

In Cleveland it’s logical to say Haslam is making the calls, and we all know the quality of his decision making.  Giants aren’t winning anything with Russ at QB.  If they don’t go QB they might be open to trade down to add more pieces and pick up a QB in the lower rounds.  Giants might subscribe to quantity over quality approach to improve their awful roster.  
 

I’m not advocating for or against this move, I’m simply saying GMs wouldn’t laugh and hang up on you if you offered 3 x 1st round picks to move up to 4.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

In Cleveland it’s logical to say Haslam is making the calls, and we all know the quality of his decision making.  Giants aren’t winning anything with Russ at QB.  If they don’t go QB they might be open to trade down to add more pieces and pick up a QB in the lower rounds.  Giants might subscribe to quantity over quality approach to improve their awful roster.  
 

I’m not advocating for or against this move, I’m simply saying GMs wouldn’t laugh and hang up on you if you offered 3 x 1st round picks to move up to 4.

 

They would listen. But this class with the teams at the top I am not sure you'd have a deal.

[TheWeatherMan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They would listen. But this class with the teams at the top I am not sure you'd have a deal.

Most likely not

[Mr. WEO]

1s and 2s for CB and WR yielded Beane Elam and Coleman.

 

Let's say those aren't in his wheelhouse the first 24 hours of the draft....

[nedboy7]

I would rather trade 2 second rounders for Amon-Ra

[TheWeatherMan]

On 4/11/2025 at 4:54 PM, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

It was 2 1st's, a 2nd, and 2 4ths. And that was 27 to 6. This is 30 to 4. Which using the Jimmy Johnson model OP is using (which is antiquated btw) would be an additional 260 points. Which equates to a bottom 2nd/top 3rd on top of that package.

 

And Julio Jones is pretty much the *only* example. Everyone brings it up every year as if it's the norm. That was about a decade and a half ago. This is even more than that. Would be practically unprecedented in the modern era. People almost never move down the board that much. We'd really have to make it worth their wile.

Define modern era please.  People use this as an example because it is the example which make the case for this precedented.  Therefore, since there is precedence, the trade scenario is demonstrably possible, yet highly improbable.  

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Define modern era please.  People use this as an example because it is the example which make the case for this precedented.  Therefore, since there is precedence, the trade scenario is demonstrably possible, yet highly improbable. 

 

There is precedence for 27 to 6 in the Julio Jones trade. A move up of 21 picks.

 

The discussed trade is a move up of 26 picks in Round 1. From 30 to 4. That's what I referred to as unprecedented - because it would be.

 

Edit: What are you disagreeing with here, @TheWeatherMan? Do you not understand what the word 'unprecedented' means? 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[cle23]

3 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

I would rather trade 2 second rounders for Amon-Ra

 

But why would Detroit make that trade? 

[BigAl2526]

On 4/10/2025 at 10:25 AM, harmonkillebrew said:

Addresses two needs at once.  We're the perfect team to employ him full-time at CB and as a complementary piece at WR.

If he drops past Cleveland, what would it take? 1st, both 2nds, next years 1st?

 

I don't think Beane would ever pull off this kind of move, but fun to think about. 

Wrong on multiple levels.  Yes, he's a great player and a legit two-way player.  It's not going to happen in the NFL.  Whatever team drafts him will play him primarily at one spot, presumably CB, and give him occasional reps at WR.  If you try and play him full-time both ways, you risk injury and you will wear him out.  Trading up from #30 would take a first next year, if not the next two years plus a boatload of other picks.   You will hurt your team in the long run.

[Thrivefourfive]

Can we all agree that there’s no jump from #30 to #4? There would be a few steps in between.. 30 to 20 to 10 to whatever. That’s how it happens. 

[Bill from NYC]

On 4/10/2025 at 10:25 AM, harmonkillebrew said:

Addresses two needs at once.  We're the perfect team to employ him full-time at CB and as a complementary piece at WR.

If he drops past Cleveland, what would it take? 1st, both 2nds, next years 1st?

 

I don't think Beane would ever pull off this kind of move, but fun to think about. 

Maybe we should trade Josh Allen for him or even another cornerback, and throw in our 1st round pick in 2026 to sweeten the pot if need be.

Edited 2 hours ago by Bill from NYC

[C.Biscuit97]

Honestly, I won’t hate it. Who cares about draft picks at this point?

22 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Maybe we should trade Josh Allen for him or even another cornerback, and throw in our 1st round pick in 2026 to sweeten the pot if need be.

The sick part of me would enjoy seeing your reaction if they did this! 😎

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

Wrong on multiple levels.  Yes, he's a great player and a legit two-way player.  It's not going to happen in the NFL.  Whatever team drafts him will play him primarily at one spot, presumably CB, and give him occasional reps at WR.  If you try and play him full-time both ways, you risk injury and you will wear him out.  Trading up from #30 would take a first next year, if not the next two years plus a boatload of other picks.   You will hurt your team in the long run.

I think you could make him a full time wr and an obvious passing down cb. I don’t think that is too crazy. 

[Bill from NYC]

6 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Honestly, I won’t hate it. Who cares about draft picks at this point?

The sick part of me would enjoy seeing your reaction if they did this! 😎

I'm way more under control than I used to be. I'm just edgy before this draft because I can see what is coming a mile away.