Trade-up for Travis Hunter

[The Cincinnati Kid]

51 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Throw in zach moss and bills legend Zach Ertz too

Gibran Hamden might be worth discussing, too.

[billsfan89]

The farthest Hunter is falling is likely pick 4. If you do the traditional value chart the Bills package to go up that far in the draft would look like. I would give the Bills having to pay a slight premium as a margin of error. 

 

Bills get (1875 point total)

• Pick 4 Travis Hunter (1800 points)
• A 2026 4th round pick (75 points) 

Pats Get (1944 point total) 

• Pick 30 (620 points)
• Pick 56 (340 points) 
• Pick 62 (284 points)
• 2026 1st round pick (700 points)

That's a steep price to pay for such a trade up in my opinion esp for a non-QB. I get the value Hunter would bring as a CB and a weapon for 15ish snaps a game at WR too so it's a 2 for 1 kind of deal. But I don't think any non-QB is worth it esp for this roster that has several other needs short and long term. 

[TheWeatherMan]

13 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I don't think he would make it past 4 (NE)

 

Giants pick at 3 is worth 2200

Pats* pick at 4 is worth 1800

 

So to get to 3 from 30 (620 points) would probably take 1, both 2, next years one and maybe a 4 or 5th? That seems like a lot for a CB

 

I'd consider a move like that for a guy like Carter but to give up that much for a CB/WR is wayy too much IMO. 

Would you give up Coleman, Kincaid and Elam for Hunter?  

[ganesh]

14 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

I don't think he would make it past 4 (NE)

 

Giants pick at 3 is worth 2200

Pats* pick at 4 is worth 1800

 

So to get to 3 from 30 (620 points) would probably take 1, both 2, next years one and maybe a 4 or 5th? That seems like a lot for a CB

 

I'd consider a move like that for a guy like Carter but to give up that much for a CB/WR is wayy to much IMO. 

Absolutely. If you are going to mortgage your draft, then you might as well go get Carter.

[BobbyC81]

14 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

man the offseason is slow

Yeah, after being able to see all the prospects in their college games with the season ending in January and the Combine in late February, do NFL teams really need another 6 weeks to evaluate?
 

[Mike in Horseheads]

7 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

Yeah, after being able to see all the prospects in their college games with the season ending in January and the Combine in late February, do NFL teams really need another 6 weeks to evaluate?
 

NFL does this on purpose to get attention in almost every month.  SB in February, FA in March, Draft in April and schedule in May.

[Nihilarian]

The ONLY time to trade up from a 30th pick to the #2 pick is for a QB and the Bills already have the best in the NFL. Even Carter is unproven in the NFL right now and not worth trading up for...

 

Relax!!!!!!!!!  

 

Brandon Beane will find some DTs, CB's, WR's and others in this draft without giving up the farm for a maybe.

Does anyone else recall when Mike Ditka, the then-HC of the New Orleans Saints, traded his entire draft for RB Ricky Williams? 

[LeviF]

Am I the only one who feels like I'm taking crazy pills hearing about this guy going top 2??? I really don't see it.

[Beast]

38 minutes ago, LeviF said:

Am I the only one who feels like I'm taking crazy pills hearing about this guy going top 2??? I really don't see it.

I hope he does and I can see it. I don’t want the Patriots getting him or Carter.

[colin]

I think there is a chance he falls a bit and then mayyyybe we can trade up and get him around like 10 or so.  Being a guy who can play wr and cb could hurt him w NFL gms who are scared of someone who doesn't fit into a box (trubisky went before mahomes and Watson, that big LSU back went before McCafferty, Josh Rosen went a mile before Lamar Jackson).  

[Gregg]

Just now, colin said:

I think there is a chance he falls a bit and then mayyyybe we can trade up and get him around like 10 or so.  Being a guy who can play wr and cb could hurt him w NFL gms who are scared of someone who doesn't fit into a box (trubisky went before mahomes and Watson, that big LSU back went before McCafferty, Josh Rosen went a mile before Lamar Jackson).  

 

Going from 30 to 10 is still a big jump up. The cost would be very high, and the Bills have multiple needs especially on defense. I mentioned this earlier in this thread but if a player Beane likes falls on the board then maybe he can trade up into the low 20's to get him. If Beane decides to trade up, then that is the most likely scenario. IMHO. I don't see the Bills anywhere near the top 10 in this draft.

[billsfan89]

16 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Would you give up Coleman, Kincaid and Elam for Hunter?  

Every team drafts busts (and I think Keon and Kincaid are far from busts) so just trade away every pick you have because every team has busts is not a good strategy 

[Big Turk]

C'mon man...what are you trading to go from where we are to top 5?

 

This isn't Madden, this is real life.

[BillsFanForever19]

17 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

The farthest Hunter is falling is likely pick 4. If you do the traditional value chart the Bills package to go up that far in the draft would look like. I would give the Bills having to pay a slight premium as a margin of error. 

 

Bills get (1875 point total)

• Pick 4 Travis Hunter (1800 points)
• A 2026 4th round pick (75 points) 

Pats Get (1944 point total) 

• Pick 30 (620 points)
• Pick 56 (340 points) 
• Pick 62 (284 points)
• 2026 1st round pick (700 points)

That's a steep price to pay for such a trade up in my opinion esp for a non-QB. I get the value Hunter would bring as a CB and a weapon for 15ish snaps a game at WR too so it's a 2 for 1 kind of deal. But I don't think any non-QB is worth it esp for this roster that has several other needs short and long term. 

 

Our 2026 1st isn't worth 700 points. First off, our average pick over the past 4 seasons is 28 (actually 28.25, but you can't quantify a quarter pick - so round down). Whichever team we trade with isn't going to assume we're going to pick higher than that.

 

More importantly though, picks in later years aren't worth the full amount. It's a generally accepted Practice that future picks the following year are worth a full Round less. A 1st is a different story than other rounds. But it's still not full value - let alone worth more than our 1st this year.

[TheWeatherMan]

48 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

Every team drafts busts (and I think Keon and Kincaid are far from busts) so just trade away every pick you have because every team has busts is not a good strategy 

Drafting busts and/or players who don’t/or negatively contribute in the biggest games is not a good strategy.  Beane has a bad track record of drafting in round #1.  Trade up, trade down, or trade for a player.  
 

The biggest delta between the Bills and the Chiefs is the contributions of the players drafted in rounds 1/2 the last 3 years. 

Edited Friday at 08:59 PM by TheWeatherMan

[GunnerBill]

18 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Would you give up Coleman, Kincaid and Elam for Hunter?  

 

I'd give up on them for a twice used tea bag.

[TheWeatherMan]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd give up on them for a twice used tea bag.

2023-2024 TBD MB: Diggs drop against KC in the playoffs might be the biggest drop in Bills history.

 

Dalton Kincaid: Hold my beer.  

[BillsFanForever19]

19 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Would you give up Coleman, Kincaid and Elam for Hunter?  

 

I see the comparison you're making. But that's 2 late 1st's and a top 2nd. That's not getting you in the Top 4 from 30 to get Hunter. The trade proposal you're quoting is also flawed in that he's overvaluing the 2026 1st. As rough as that proposal looks - it's still not enough.

Edited Friday at 10:58 PM by BillsFanForever19

[billsfan89]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Our 2026 1st isn't worth 700 points. First off, our average pick over the past 4 seasons is 28 (actually 28.25, but you can't quantify a quarter pick - so round down). Whichever team we trade with isn't going to assume we're going to pick higher than that.

 

More importantly though, picks in later years aren't worth the full amount. It's a generally accepted Practice that future picks the following year are worth a full Round less. A 1st is a different story than other rounds. But it's still not full value - let alone worth more than our 1st this year.

 

The draft value chart puts a future 1st at 700 points which is approximately worth the 26th pick which is valued at 700 points exactly. The reason the value chart puts it at 700 vs. being worth one round less is that a future 1st has a chance to be worth 3000 points. The value chart I put it was an estimate so it's flexible but I think as an approximation of what the Bills would have to give up to trade up into the top 5 it is fair (pick 30, 56, 62 and a future 1st) you can quibble if the Bills would have to include other late round selections or not but I think it is in the range of what a trade would cost. 

[TheWeatherMan]

30 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I see the comparison you're making. But that's 2 late 1st's and a top 2nd. That's not getting you in the Top 4 from 30 to get Hunter. The trade proposal you're quoting is also flawed in that he's overvaluing the 2026 1st. As rough as that proposal looks - it's still not enough.

3 x 1st round picks to get into the top 4 is most definitely something a team drafting in the top 4 and doesn’t want to be in the top 4 would consider.
 

Closest example would be the 2011 Draft Falcons traded #27, a 2nd, 4th and the next years 1st to move up to #6 for Julio Jones.