Bond Market in Chaos Now--Yields Jumping As Investors Flee American Market

[Joe Ferguson forever]

30 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

When it’s solely about politics and power not the American people….

 

 

Your former party of the working man.  
 

It’s now the party of college “educated” women and the CCP.  

yeah, we don't want you back.  Some of my compatriots might disagree.  You know what I most admired about last weekends protests?  Civility..Class. Candor.  The 3 C's.  and cleanliness was a fourth.  No one smelled and there was no littering.

 

oh, and college educated women can be very attractive.  there was this comeoniwanna laya party at 

Skidmore...maybe they still do it.  Most of the males at Skidmore were gay so it was a nice party for straight guys.

Edited Thursday at 03:51 AM by Joe Ferguson forever

[Big Blitz]

28 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

yeah, we don't want you back.  Some of my compatriots might disagree.  You know what I most admired about last weekends protests?  Civility..Class. Candor.  

 

 

 

 

 

And they were paid

 

 

Beautiful women.  
 

 

 

 

Democrats are as fake as their outrage over tariffs.  
 

 

Still waiting for there massive tax cut bill to show us their new found love of free markets.  

[Joe Ferguson forever]

10 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

 

 

 

And they were paid

 

 

Beautiful women.  
 

 

 

 

Democrats are as fake as their outrage over tariffs.  
 

 

Still waiting for there massive tax cut bill to show us their new found love of free markets.  

yeah, the first one seems a peach.  but I'll need to verify.  Look at a typical crowd pic from a trump rally.  You'll see lots of overripe and overgrown peaches.  She's dumb but smart enough to be on the right side.  But you're correct.  Some people ain't gonna win regardless off anything...sadly, some will lose regardless.  Life ain't always fair.  but usually... 

Edited Thursday at 04:15 AM by Joe Ferguson forever

[The Frankish Reich]

Hate to interrupt the favorite photo reels of the Trumpies, but back to the topic: "bond market in chaos." 

 

Here's why the "mainstream media" is essential. This is mainstream UK conservatism, the Financial Times. I got my month for a dollar deal to try to keep up with all the trade shenanigans of the past few days; get yours too or keep reading "Trump Playing 5D Chess" tweets and remain ignorant. The truth is we were getting to a 2008 Lehman or 2022 Liz Truss situation in which the bond market becomes illiquid - that means there's no functioning market in trading treasuries, and that's the systemic risk of a damn fool pulling tariff numbers out of his fat ass.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/6e6261e1-42bd-4cca-827e-218c111a6432?emailId=cba474cf-958e-4cf8-a9c5-c8a8d0767405&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

We realise that not everyone is quite the fixed income dorks that we are, so here’s an explainer of some of the more common “relative-value” strategies that hedge funds often pursue in the bond market. This is not the really funky stuff. These are actually fairly plain-vanilla trades that have in some form been around for decades. But quite a few of them were supercharged in the post-crisis era — thanks to the regulation-enforced retreat of banks and the rise of leaner algorithmic market-makers — and all have the potential to blow up rarely but spectacularly (viz LTCM).

OK OK that’s enough. So what does it all mean? Well, that Treasury market volatility triggered by the Trump administration’s new tariff regime has now sparked a technical unwind of billions of dollars of highly leveraged hedge fund trades — a bit like how Liz Truss’s badly-judged budget plans triggered a meltdown of LDI strategies in the gilt market. All these trades are in their basic form pretty safe, and arguably a service to financial markets, by helping support Treasury markets and ensuring that all the different parts of the wider rates ecosystem is tied together. It’s the level and fickleness of the leverage that can make them dangerous occasionally. Normally these things burn themselves out soon enough, but there are rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to step in to prevent the Treasury sell-off from becoming disorderly and destructive. In other words, not per se to keep yields low, but to ensure that there are no major financial mishaps. However, at some point we really should stop and think about whether we want the US Treasury market to be so vulnerable to these kinds of situations that it requires central bank intervention again and again?

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

And now its the turn of commodities. Elected a total idiot, get burned. Recession on the way  

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/10/global-commodity-selloff-is-flashing-warning-signs-for-world-economy.html

 

 

Global commodity prices are getting hammered, as trade war tensions once more fester between the world’s two largest economies — and recession signals are flashing red.

The S&P GSCI index, which tracks global commodities across the energy, metals and agriculture sectors, shows that prices have declined over 8% since April 2, when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a slew of “reciprocal” tariffs. That was despite the slight recovery in prices after the White House leader announced a tariff U-turn Wednesday.

Trump has nevertheless turned up the heat on China by hiking the tariff rate on Chinese goods to 125%.

“The collapse in commodities [prices] is a circuit breaker, a sign that a global recession is afoot,” said Marko Papic, a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research.

China is the largest consumer of commodities, and the higher-than-expected tariffs are likely to be a drag not only on the country’s growth, but also on its consumption of certain commodities, in particular energy and industrial metals.

Of all the commodities in the basket, energy fell the most since April 2, declining around 12%, according to S&P Global’s GSCI energy gauge. 

 

 

 

[SectionC3]

6 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Hate to interrupt the favorite photo reels of the Trumpies, but back to the topic: "bond market in chaos." 

 

Here's why the "mainstream media" is essential. This is mainstream UK conservatism, the Financial Times. I got my month for a dollar deal to try to keep up with all the trade shenanigans of the past few days; get yours too or keep reading "Trump Playing 5D Chess" tweets and remain ignorant. The truth is we were getting to a 2008 Lehman or 2022 Liz Truss situation in which the bond market becomes illiquid - that means there's no functioning market in trading treasuries, and that's the systemic risk of a damn fool pulling tariff numbers out of his fat ass.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/6e6261e1-42bd-4cca-827e-218c111a6432?emailId=cba474cf-958e-4cf8-a9c5-c8a8d0767405&segmentId=22011ee7-896a-8c4c-22a0-7603348b7f22

We realise that not everyone is quite the fixed income dorks that we are, so here’s an explainer of some of the more common “relative-value” strategies that hedge funds often pursue in the bond market. This is not the really funky stuff. These are actually fairly plain-vanilla trades that have in some form been around for decades. But quite a few of them were supercharged in the post-crisis era — thanks to the regulation-enforced retreat of banks and the rise of leaner algorithmic market-makers — and all have the potential to blow up rarely but spectacularly (viz LTCM).

OK OK that’s enough. So what does it all mean? Well, that Treasury market volatility triggered by the Trump administration’s new tariff regime has now sparked a technical unwind of billions of dollars of highly leveraged hedge fund trades — a bit like how Liz Truss’s badly-judged budget plans triggered a meltdown of LDI strategies in the gilt market. All these trades are in their basic form pretty safe, and arguably a service to financial markets, by helping support Treasury markets and ensuring that all the different parts of the wider rates ecosystem is tied together. It’s the level and fickleness of the leverage that can make them dangerous occasionally. Normally these things burn themselves out soon enough, but there are rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to step in to prevent the Treasury sell-off from becoming disorderly and destructive. In other words, not per se to keep yields low, but to ensure that there are no major financial mishaps. However, at some point we really should stop and think about whether we want the US Treasury market to be so vulnerable to these kinds of situations that it requires central bank intervention again and again?

So, more QE and more inflation on the way?  At least MAGA owned the libs.  

[Trump_is_Mentally_fit]

1 hour ago, SectionC3 said:

So, more QE and more inflation on the way?  At least MAGA owned the libs.  

Oh don't worry, a recession will take care of the inflation  

[Albwan]

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A$$holes.

[Coffeesforclosers]

33 minutes ago, Albwan said:

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A$$holes.

 

Again. More bubble boy bragging.  

[Big Blitz]

2 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

So, more QE and more inflation on the way?  At least MAGA owned the libs.  

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, SectionC3 said:

So, more QE and more inflation on the way?  At least MAGA owned the libs.  

Probably. 

We've already seen Trump urging the Fed to cut rates. This time it amounts to "I broke the economy, so you better cut rates to avert a deep recession." And the Fed's "unwinding" of it's treasuries is likely to be paused too.

It seems Republicans these days love inflation and cheap money too.

[The Frankish Reich]

Another good analysis, also paywalled, because I guess you get what you pay for (example: Catturd vs. the WSJ). Steve Miran, yet another nutcase in the administration:

 

https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/us-dollar-treasury-bonds-trade-war-028e8765?mod=WSJ_home_supertopperbottom_pos_2

 

The dollar’s reserve status makes it artificially strong, which results in exports being more expensive and imports cheaper, contributing to the U.S. trade deficit. In a speech this week Steve Miran, chairman of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said other countries should share the U.S.’s burden of providing its defense umbrella and a reserve currency. One way, he said, was by paying tariffs.

Before joining the administration, Miran had, in a report, suggested other countries could help hold down the dollar through a “Mar-a-Lago” accord, and if they didn’t, the U.S. could impose a fee on their holdings of Treasurys. In an email Wednesday, Miran said that he wasn’t advocating either idea then, and that the administration isn’t considering either now. 

[sherpa]

17 hours ago, 4th&long said:

  He's not a pilot and definitely not a wine maker. I can't believe people feel for his *****. This mother ***** is almost as bad as billsrednecknc. 

 

 

So, being so convinced of this nonsense, why did you back down from a $10,000 wager regarding this?

 

By the way, I get that processing language is not your strength, but I never claimed to be a "winemaker."

Enology, or often spelled oenology, is the correct term, but never claimed that.

 

I grow and sell a French Bordeaux red wine grape in the Monticello AVA, and have done so since 2008.

[4th&long]

1 minute ago, sherpa said:

 

 

So, being so convinced of this nonsense, why did you back down from a $10,000 wager regarding this?

 

By the way, I get that processing language is not your strength, but I never claimed to be a "winemaker."

Enology, or often spelled oenology, is the correct term, but never claimed that.

 

I grow and sell a French Bordeaux red wine grape in the Monticello AVA, and have done so since 2008.

Anything you say I don't believe just like your god trump. 

[Matt_In_NH]

15 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

When it’s solely about politics and power not the American people….

 

 

Your former party of the working man.  
 

It’s now the party of college “educated” women and the CCP.  

I dont get it, Schiff did not flip flop in those clips, are people not able to understand different topics?

Edited Thursday at 06:58 PM by Matt_In_NH