TSW Mock Draft 2.0 - Completed

[LEBills]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

 

We took two versatile, massive defensive tackles. And I think the trade down made a ton of sense with what was on the board, something Beane did in 2022 when he didn’t like the board and just kept moving down. Also gained an extra pick in the trade. 
 

To me if you go DT in round 1 you will be in no man’s land in round 2, which is what happened here. I think it is a really good exercise to see the possibilities. 

yea still don’t like it

[Virgil]

Okay, that’s a wrap everyone.   
 

With spring break and Easter coming up, we are going to pause before 3.0.  Signup thread will go up Saturday, with the draft starting Monday.  
 

It will be one round with trades. 
 

There will be a poll about the Bills trading up.   And to be clear, we will be trading up.  We have two mocks where we stayed put, this is to show what it would be like if we didn’t.  
 

Get the complaining out of your systems now 😋

[MrEpsYtown]

1 minute ago, LEBills said:

yea still don’t like it

Yeah I get you. I am excited to see what a possible trade up looks like in 3.0

[boyst]

So, what we have learned is that if the bills want to go another direction from DT they may need to trade up.

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, Virgil said:

Okay, that’s a wrap everyone.   
 

With spring break and Easter coming up, we are going to pause before 3.0.  Signup thread will go up Saturday, with the draft starting Monday.  
 

It will be one round with trades. 
 

There will be a poll about the Bills trading up.   And to be clear, we will be trading up.  We have two mocks where we stayed put, this is to show what it would be like if we didn’t.  
 

Get the complaining out of your systems now 😋

 

Thanks for running these!  Another great job!

 

For the next trade up vote:  Can you at least include some more realistic trade up options in the vote where we are using a 4th to make a smaller move up?  We have a lot of day 3 ammo, I think using a 4th, or a 4th and change is more realistic than just the few costly options you had last time.   

Edited April 16 by Alphadawg7

[DrDawkinstein]

DT-DT-DT with our first 3 picks! If nothing else, this exercise always provides perspective on why we are at home and not in the FO.

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

DT-DT-DT with our first 3 picks! If nothing else, this exercise always provides perspective on why we are at home and not in the FO.

I wouldn't complain one bit. These 3 with Ed and Carter could cement this line for years. Philly style. Concentrate on one area at a time.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

DT-DT-DT with our first 3 picks! If nothing else, this exercise always provides perspective on why we are at home and not in the FO.

 

In fairness I think we hit on by far the most likely pick at #30 the first time around and as a result he was barred from selection in version 2.0

[Alphadawg7]

40 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In fairness I think we hit on by far the most likely pick at #30 the first time around and as a result he was barred from selection in version 2.0

 

Yeah, I think had Amos been available for the vote it would have been a close vote between him and Grant with how this board fell.  And I think if the board fell this way in the real draft, one of those 2 would probably be the pick.  

 

While we have had success finding corners in the past on day 3, this team is too close and a serious SB contender right now for them to not prioritize the biggest hole on the team.  So I think the odds of us not taking a corner in the 1st or 2nd this year are probably pretty low.  As with any draft, how the board falls will dictate a lot of what happens at our picks, so nothing is certain, but I think its a pretty safe bet that we land a corner with one of those first 3 picks...not to mention using some of our extra day 3 capital potentially to move around to get one as well.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, I think had Amos been available for the vote it would have been a close vote between him and Grant with how this board fell.  And I think if the board fell this way in the real draft, one of those 2 would probably be the pick.  

 

While we have had success finding corners in the past on day 3, this team is too close and a serious SB contender right now for them to not prioritize the biggest hole on the team.  So I think the odds of us not taking a corner in the 1st or 2nd this year are probably pretty low.  As with any draft, how the board falls will dictate a lot of what happens at our picks, so nothing is certain, but I think its a pretty safe bet that we land a corner with one of those first 3 picks...not to mention using some of our extra day 3 capital potentially to move around to get one as well.

 

I don't think they have had Grant in for a visit have they? And interestingly we haven't seen any of the most likely round 1 DTs in. The guys they have had in are Norman-Lott, Williams, Sanders, Walker, Robinson.... more day 2 and 3 guys. That doesn't have to mean anything. They met Grant and Nolen at the Combine (as well as Farmer and Collins). But as I said earlier Kincaid apart this regime has had every first round pick it has made in for a top 30 visit (Rousseau's being virtual because of covid). They are one of the more consistent teams in that regard. They have had all those expected late first / early 2nd corners in - Amos, Hariston, Revel, Morrison. It's tea leaves reading but I think the signals are pointing very much to corner at 30. 

[frostbitmic]

It's looking like if we want a CB we better grab one at #30 or wherever Beane moves to. There's a better chance at getting a big ole 1T in the 2nd round than getting a CB there.

 

If the real draft went like this, the Bills would be very good at stopping the run, but teams will be torching us through the air.

 

44-42 games are fun.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It's tea leaves reading but I think the signals are pointing very much to corner at 30. 

Poor @Bill from NYC

[gonzo1105]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think they have had Grant in for a visit have they? And interestingly we haven't seen any of the most likely round 1 DTs in. The guys they have had in are Norman-Lott, Williams, Sanders, Walker, Robinson.... more day 2 and 3 guys. That doesn't have to mean anything. They met Grant and Nolen at the Combine (as well as Farmer and Collins). But as I said earlier Kincaid apart this regime has had every first round pick it has made in for a top 30 visit (Rousseau's being virtual because of covid). They are one of the more consistent teams in that regard. They have had all those expected late first / early 2nd corners in - Amos, Hariston, Revel, Morrison. It's tea leaves reading but I think the signals are pointing very much to corner at 30. 

Yup first rounders visit and we don’t have all 30 visits yet but I think Kincaid is the outlier because they never thought they had a chance to get him. He also didn’t fit the typical young upside prospect they draft either. 
 

This is why I’m slightly unsure of Revel. Amos is 23 but that’s almost normal and Hairston is 21 though I don’t think he’ll be there for the Bills. Morrison also fits that at 21. AZ Thomas is only 20. 
 

So if we’re looking at historical data and the fact that first rounders visit I’d lean towards Hairston or Morrison but I think Amos is just too good a fit and he’s only slightly older. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think they have had Grant in for a visit have they? And interestingly we haven't seen any of the most likely round 1 DTs in. The guys they have had in are Norman-Lott, Williams, Sanders, Walker, Robinson.... more day 2 and 3 guys. That doesn't have to mean anything. They met Grant and Nolen at the Combine (as well as Farmer and Collins). But as I said earlier Kincaid apart this regime has had every first round pick it has made in for a top 30 visit (Rousseau's being virtual because of covid). They are one of the more consistent teams in that regard. They have had all those expected late first / early 2nd corners in - Amos, Hariston, Revel, Morrison. It's tea leaves reading but I think the signals are pointing very much to corner at 30. 

I mistakenly thought they had Grant in for a visit the way he is projected so frequently to us and talked about around here.  But I just looked it up and it seems it was only the combine visit.  So yeah, given that, I agree Beanes history shows it’s more probable going to be someone they had in for an official visit.  And based on who that is, it certainly suggests corner is the more probable pick at 30.  

 

Plus obviously corner is easily our biggest hole, and the drop off at corner after 30 is steeper than DT where there will be good value at DT likely at our next pick still.  
 

 

[Big Blitz]

Walter Nolen…no matter what 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yup first rounders visit and we don’t have all 30 visits yet but I think Kincaid is the outlier because they never thought they had a chance to get him. He also didn’t fit the typical young upside prospect they draft either. 
 

This is why I’m slightly unsure of Revel. Amos is 23 but that’s almost normal and Hairston is 21 though I don’t think he’ll be there for the Bills. Morrison also fits that at 21. AZ Thomas is only 20. 
 

So if we’re looking at historical data and the fact that first rounders visit I’d lean towards Hairston or Morrison but I think Amos is just too good a fit and he’s only slightly older. 

 

It is a good point on age. He is just (in March) turned 23 at least Amos. Kincaid turned 24 during his rookie season. That hasn't typically been their MO. Tremaine Edmunds is still only 15.

[Motorin']

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, I think had Amos been available for the vote it would have been a close vote between him and Grant with how this board fell.  And I think if the board fell this way in the real draft, one of those 2 would probably be the pick.  

 

While we have had success finding corners in the past on day 3, this team is too close and a serious SB contender right now for them to not prioritize the biggest hole on the team.  So I think the odds of us not taking a corner in the 1st or 2nd this year are probably pretty low.  As with any draft, how the board falls will dictate a lot of what happens at our picks, so nothing is certain, but I think its a pretty safe bet that we land a corner with one of those first 3 picks...not to mention using some of our extra day 3 capital potentially to move around to get one as well.

 

If there is a way to trade back (in the real world) and walk away with Amos and Grant I think that would be amazing. 

 

 

[Virgil]

33 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

If there is a way to trade back (in the real world) and walk away with Amos and Grant I think that would be amazing. 

 

 

 

I think that's very doable, but might require more trading than people would like.  

 

Grant looks to go anywhere between 20-30, while Amos could go anywhere from 25-40.

 

To get both, I think we would need to trade our 1st, both 2nd's, and probably a 4th.  

 

To me, I'm okay with that, as everyone else is going to be depth on this team that we hope pan out.  If Amos can start and hold his own, and Grant makes us better up the middle, than we are incrementally better.  

[nosejob]

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

Walter Nolen…no matter what 

 

 

I would be happy. I'm sure they'll at least double dip at DT before 109.  Would be cool to grab one or both of those Nebraska dudes later on.

Edited Wednesday at 07:28 PM by nosejob

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

If there is a way to trade back (in the real world) and walk away with Amos and Grant I think that would be amazing. 

 

 

 

Is it possible in a "trade back"...Sure, but not very.  Reason is Grant will not remain on the board much longer if we pass on him at 30, to ensure we get him means it has to be a small trade back.  And in any small trade back we are only looking at adding a day 3 pick to do so.  Moving back say 3 spots is the equivalent of a late 4th essentially.  And given we already have 5 picks in rounds 4 and 5, not to mention 3 more in the 6th, I don't see the incentive for Beane to risk losing their guy.  For Beane to move back, I would think it would be in an effort to get a 3rd back since we do not have one, or its probably not worth doing unless there just isn't someone at 30 they feel compelled to take there.  

 

So looking at the draft order...the teams at the top of the draft in the 2nd also have top of 3rd picks, so the move back to their spots doesn't warrant that, so we would have to include another pick to make it happen most likely.  Someone like Tenn doesn't even have a 3rd this year.  A team like Jax could, especially having 2 3rds, but honestly, Grant is someone they could move up for themselves.  

 

While anything is possible...I really don't see a scenario where we move back and still land both Grant and Amos.  Doesn't mean we cant move back and say land any DT and Amos for example, just your question was about these 2 specifically, assuming both are even still on the board when we pick of course.  

 

To land both, I think you would have to take Grant at 30 (as I think he would come off the board faster than Amos), then look to move up from 56 to somewhere inside the top 40 (lets just use Jax at 36 as a mid point) to get Amos, you are needing to make a 200 point move.  Without having a 3rd, their really isnt any way to do that unless we use both our 2nds, so that gets a little dicier and our window is narrow on which teams have the spot and draft assets to make a deal work with us.  Jax happens to be one of those teams, so for discussion sake, a move to get back up to 36 could look something like this:

 

Bills send 56, 62, 109 (700 points)

Jax sends 36 and 88 (690)

 

Bills select Amos at 36 and then have a 3rd rounder still at 88 in lieu of an additional 2nd with a net loss of our first pick in the 4th.  This is a palatable trade, and one I think Beane would consider.  The issue is, there are just not a lot of these little perfect scenarios in the range where we could facilitate this for these 2 specific players.  And of course, Beane has to cover both these guys and the corresponding team has to want to make the trade as well.  

 

What I think is more probable is we take Amos at 30 (or make a small trade back and still take Amos) and then they either let the board come to them at 56 for a DT or make a smaller move up to get the DT they covet most still on the board in a range where a 4th or even multiple day 3 picks gets us there without giving up our pick at 62.

 

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

 

I think that's very doable, but might require more trading than people would like.  

 

Grant looks to go anywhere between 20-30, while Amos could go anywhere from 25-40.

 

To get both, I think we would need to trade our 1st, both 2nd's, and probably a 4th.  

 

To me, I'm okay with that, as everyone else is going to be depth on this team that we hope pan out.  If Amos can start and hold his own, and Grant makes us better up the middle, than we are incrementally better.  

 

Not sure how you are applying those picks in terms of the trades, but the scenario I just laid out with Jax is similar except we wouldn't be trading our first, we would need to stay put and take Grant (as Grant IMHO likely comes off the board quicker than Amos after pick 30 if both are still there).  But we would net both, and still have a pick in the 3rd for essentially the cost of a 4th.  

Edited Wednesday at 08:17 PM by Alphadawg7