TSW 1.0 Poll - Who should the Bills select at #62?

[GunnerBill]

52 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

If the board falls that way, trading down is a bit attractive but I might be more inclined to trade back from 30 - I don’t think there is much difference in who the Bills would pick (in terms of grades) between 30 and about 40.  Another option would be to package a couple of the 5ths with 109 to move up to late 3rd - or 132  & 169 & 170 to move towards to pf round 4?

 

Agree on a small move back from #30. It makes more sense to me this year than it did last year. My question mark is about why a team might want to come up. 

 

The only two scenarios I can see is maybe a team at the top of the 2nd who didn't take a QB has eyes on Jaxon Dart or Sheduer if one of them is still there. OR Josh Conerly is the last left tackle option standing and someone in the early 2nd (Browns at #33 maybe?) wants to get in front of Kansas City.

[Ralonzo]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

OR Josh Conerly is the last left tackle option standing and someone in the early 2nd (Browns at #33 maybe?) wants to get in front of Kansas City.

 

There's a nice deal to be had there... #30+132 for #33+104 [214pts - 213pts on Rich Hill chart]. Gets the Bills 5 picks in the top 110.

[Virgil]

Updated to top 4.  Poll will close at 2p

 

i want to say I’m surprised to see the Bond love, especially with all his alleged character concerns, but speed leads to total forgiviness it seems. 

Edited April 6 by Virgil

[BarleyNY]

9 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Updated to top 4.  Poll will close at 2p

 

i want to say I’m surprised to see the Bond love, especially with all his alleged character concerns, but speed leads to total forgiviness it seems. 

Agree on Bond. Similar to last year’s Jermaine Burton, I’m touching him in round 2 due to character concerns. Round 4 (or even late 3rd if we had a pick there) is a different story if he checked out okay on the visit, but not this soon. Burch looks like the only other player of the four left that might develop into a starter so I went with him. 

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Updated to top 4.  Poll will close at 2p

 

i want to say I’m surprised to see the Bond love, especially with all his alleged character concerns, but speed leads to total forgiviness it seems. 

Folks are taking into account the fact that the Bills have spent a lot of time with the fella, so you hypothetically presume they are good with him if he gets selected. If you're not sure that is correct, this whole game is speculative projection based on hypotheticals. Bond brings an elite trait and could enhance the WR room precisely with a strength it needs to supplement. 

 

And to those who think Farmer is being overdrafted, and see that Bond is gathering the most alternate votes, it's not so surprising.

[GunnerBill]

21 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Updated to top 4.  Poll will close at 2p

 

i want to say I’m surprised to see the Bond love, especially with all his alleged character concerns, but speed leads to total forgiviness it seems. 

 

I don't know about the character stuff. It's all very hearsay. If there is something in it, he won't be the pick. He is comfortably the highest graded of any of the guys on the original poll by my board.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Watts was clearly BPA and not a roster hole so this is a lazy argument and 50% invalid from the get-go. Drafting for fit - not need - was the problem with the DL at #30. If you assume Amos and DT3T's were in a similar grade tier (many scouting sites say they are) then the tiebreaker is - positional value (CB >> DT3T), scarcity in the draft class (CB >> DT3T) and finally roster fit (CB >> DT3T). Even if you have Amos a tier below, those factors still are an influence weighing on the decision to draft him.

 

I do agree with Burch among the listed options.

Calling someone’s opinion lazy and invalid never really makes sense to me but it is what it is and you’re entitled to your own opinion. For me Amos is not a 1st round talent but I’m glad we can agree on Burch.

[Ralonzo]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't know about the character stuff. It's all very hearsay. If there is something in it, he won't be the pick. He is comfortably the highest graded of any of the guys on the original poll by my board.

 

What about the guys not on the poll, was there anyone else (specifically thinking about Kennard/Gillotte)

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

3 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Aren’t you arguing that drafting a CB first for need means they won’t get a DT that they need?

Might not have a chance to get West or even Caldwell a round and a half from here.

It’s not really an argument I just don’t think Amos is the best player in this circumstance or a 1st round talent again imo. 

[Brandon]

I don't like the available group of four choices and would much prefer to trade down.  Of the players not listed in the poll,  I'd consider Josaiah Stewart, Jaylin Noel,  Elic Ayomanor,  Jalen Royals or even another CB here.   I would much prefer a good 1T DT,  but I think they've missed out on value in R2 and should wait until 109 (or maybe trade up from that spot in the mid/late R3 range). 

 

If absolutely forced to choose from this group of four,  I'd probably take Farmer and would not be too happy about it. 

Edited April 6 by Brandon

[Ralonzo]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

Calling someone’s opinion lazy and invalid never really makes sense to me but it is what it is and you’re entitled to your own opinion. For me Amos is not a 1st round talent but I’m glad we can agree on Burch.

 

No intention to personally offend. I don't think yours was a valid rationale for the reasons given in the response, and just sounded to me like the traditional TSW murder of crows "Beane keeps reaching for position" (which may actually be a valid argument) with no additional explanation, and applying it to what has happened in TSW 1.0 - which really wasn't the case. So that's where you ended up taking the hit for it. The Bills lack of starting-level CB was a factor but not THE factor on Amos - he's widely regarded as a low-first/high-second propect. And Watts is right out.

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

It’s not really an argument I just don’t think Amos is the best player in this circumstance or a 1st round talent again imo. 

 

Ok, there's a justification. I liked what I saw on Amos' tape. The comparisons to Elam in an earlier thread, I'll call those lazy as well. The side-by-side highlights looked nothing alike. Amos is physical at the line, fluid in changing direction, and can plaster and mirror.

Edited April 6 by Ralonzo

[OldTimer1960]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

It’s not really an argument I just don’t think Amos is the best player in this circumstance or a 1st round talent again imo. 

Agree that Amos is not a “first round talent”, but there are only maybe 15-20 in this draft that are.  I’ve read that some teams love Nolan and others have him as a 3rd rounder - so a wide range of opinions.  If there is any truth to the rumor that he isn’t particularly motivated then the Bills will stay away from Nolan.  Note that I am not saying that the rumors are true (or untrue).

[Ralonzo]

6 minutes ago, Brandon said:

I don't like the available group of four choices and would much prefer to trade down.  Of the players not listed in the poll,  I'd consider Josaiah Stewart, Jaylin Noel,  Elic Ayomanor,  Jalen Royals or even another CB here.   I would much prefer a good 1T DT,  but I think they've missed out on value in R2 and should wait until 109 (or maybe trade up from that spot in the mid/late R3 range). 

 

If absolutely forced to choose from this group of four,  I'd probably take Farmer and would not be too happy about it. 

 

Similar but I'm going Burch. Physical traits he's very much like Myles Garrett except for the knuckle-dragging arm-length.

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

What about the guys not on the poll, was there anyone else (specifically thinking about Kennard/Gillotte)

 

Nope. Kennard is a 3rd round grade on my board. Gillotte is a high 4. That's probably harsh because I do like his game. I ended up marking him down a bit because I think he is a tricky scheme fit. He sort of has the body of a 3-4 defensive end (a 4i / 5T) but the game of a bigger 4-3 defensive end. So I kind of end up worrying how he succeeds at the NFL level.

 

I'm just having a scan now I think by my big board based on the way this draft has gone Bond is BPA. It goes:

 

1. Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas

2. Mason Taylor, TE, LSU

3. Cam Williams, OT, Texas

4. Marcus Mbow, IOL, Purdue

 

They are the only guys I have left with 2nd round grades. 

Edited April 6 by GunnerBill

[OldTimer1960]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope. Kennard is a 3rd round grade on my board. Gillotte is a high 4. That's probably harsh because I do like his game. I ended up marking him down a bit because I think he is a tricky scheme fit. He sort of has the body of a 3-4 defensive end (a 4i / 5T) but the game of a bigger 4-3 defensive end. So I kind of end up worrying how he succeeds at the NFL level.

 

I'm just having a scan now I think by my big board based on the way this draft has gone Bond is BPA. It goes:

 

1. Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas

2. Mason Taylor, TE, LSU

3. Cam Williams, OT, Texas

4. Marcus Mbow, IOL, Purdue

 

They are the only guys I have left with 2nd round grades. 

That’s rough, but pick 62 is very late 2nd round, so not very surprising.

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Your assumption that Porter will be available at 56 is very risky.  Who is playing CB if Porter is gone?  
 

I don’t like how the board fell in this scenario and it is a big quandary.  For me, if Harmon or Grant are available at 30, I might nab them and try to get a CB, but they might miss out completely on CB then.  
 

I hope that the way this fell is because we’ve all been talking almost exclusively about players the Bills could use and that influenced the picks.  If that isn’t true, I think they need to trade up from 56 to be able to get both DT and CB.  I don’t want to give up the other 2nd or even the 4ths but they might have to.

I agree it was risky, but it shouldn't affect out drafting much imho. Take BPA in Nolen, make your team better and figure out rest later.

 

Either Porter or someone else is there, or you trade up in 2nd to get a CB you want, or you just pass if value is not there and then throw two darts in rounds 5 or 6 and hope that one of them becomes poor man's version of Benford. Or you just play Jackson and assume he can hold his own better than before thanks to Nolen who provides more pressure.

[OldTimer1960]

8 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I agree it was risky, but it shouldn't affect out drafting much imho. Take BPA in Nolen, make your team better and figure out rest later.

 

Either Porter or someone else is there, or you trade up in 2nd to get a CB you want, or you just pass if value is not there and then throw two darts in rounds 5 or 6 and hope that one of them becomes poor man's version of Benford. Or you just play Jackson and assume he can hold his own better than before thanks to Nolen who provides more pressure.

That may be what they’ll do.  - we’ll see in a few weeks.  For me, it’s risky, but I’m risk-averse.  In the end, they are looking at 34 yo Daquan Jones starting at DT with no obvious backup and Dane Jackson starting at CB with no great backup.  Both are big holes.  They need a DE for next year, but could live this year without drafting one if it comes down to that.  They could really use an upgrade at WR, but they did have a high scoring offense last year with essentially the group they currently have.

[Maine-iac]

I like Jordan Phillips more than Lott or Farmer but late 2nd seems too early.  I guess Bond it is then.  Honestly I'm more worried about our coverage issues than run stopping.  Not that I wouldn't want a good DT but if this is how it fell I'd have to hope Jones has another year left in him.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Ralonzo said:

 

There's a nice deal to be had there... #30+132 for #33+104 [214pts - 213pts on Rich Hill chart]. Gets the Bills 5 picks in the top 110.

 

I have the same idea but instead swap our pick 109 for their pick 94. That gets us our 3rd round pick back that we gave up for Amari Cooper and we'd still have our normal 4th round pick. The player we get at 33 would be the same caliber as whatever player we'd take at 30, and if Cleveland takes an OT we would hurt KC in the process.

[Virgil]

I’m shocked Burch isn’t getting more love.  He’s a 1st round talent and we are thin at the position.  I don’t see the need at WR.  I get the DT need, but the value for Burch here is huge.  
 

Bosa is 50/50 and we have those suspensions looking.