TSW 1.0 Poll - Who should the Bills select at #56 ? (closes 2pm EDT)

[Dr. Who]

3 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I 've been hoping to go DT  Edge then Porter. But....to be on the safe side, I'd take DT then Porter at 56 then Burch or Ivey at 62. I think both are gonna be great and can slide inside to change things up.

I've got a day 3 sleeper for you that can do that as well. Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, UGA. He's listed as a DT, but he is an Edge that can play inside.

Edited 22 hours ago by Dr. Who

[nosejob]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I've got a day 3 sleeper for you that can do that as well. Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, UGA. He's listed as a DT, but he is an Edge that can play inside.

Wow pretty impressed. Looks like a great 5th or 6th grab...although I don't see a projected round on him.

[DrDawkinstein]

12 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I've got a day 3 sleeper for you that can do that as well. Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, UGA. He's listed as a DT, but he is an Edge that can play inside.

 

1 minute ago, nosejob said:

Wow pretty impressed. Looks like a great 5th or 6th grab...although I don't see a projected round on him.

 

If we're talking UGA DL to play inside I'd look into Nazir Stackhouse too. Totally different as Stackhouse is more a true big-body 1-tech to put next to Ed and eat up lineman. He's been far more consistent than TID over their time at UGA.

 

TID has more upside, higher ceiling, more potential. But "potential" is tough when making draft picks. And he has some injury issues.

[scuba guy]

9 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Jackson is already gone. I think this does show that the notion that it's a deep draft at DT, so take a CB early is not as obvious a gambit as many assume. What an uninspiring mix of alternatives.

This is why I always love tsw members complaining ever year about the draft.  After all the work the scouts do, your stuck with what is left over and when you get a run on a position. You mite not have any grade on the people that are left.

 

 

[Ralonzo]

40 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I've got a day 3 sleeper for you that can do that as well. Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, UGA. He's listed as a DT, but he is an Edge that can play inside.

I've got a similar guys to Ingram-Dawkins for power edge who popped to me at the combine in that range.  That's part of why I shaded to Xavier Watts at this pick, Watts is just too much of value+fit+need+separation-from-the-next-tier at this slot to pass on, and there's sleepers at edge and 1T that can be had in the middle of Day 3.

 

For power edge I liked what I saw from Ahmed Hassanein the Egyptian Magician from Boise State. He's only been playing the game for a couple years and has gone for zero to draftable in a short time. Also you could go with Tyler Batty out of BYU or Elijah Roberts from SMU. As far as traditional pass-rushing edge, Fadil Diggs of Syracuse and Jah Joyner of Minnesota are toolsy guys with speed to press the edge in packages but also frame and physical tools to develop.

 

We know the Bills have met with Zeek Biggers from Georgia Tech for their 1T role, others have noted Florida's Cam Jackson and JJ Pegues from Ole Miss. Nazir Stackhouse from Georgia is another 2-down blocker-eater. Because of the lack of pass rush those guys will slide down the board but they are fine the way the Bills use the DL rotation.

17 minutes ago, scuba guy said:

This is why I always love tsw members complaining ever year about the draft.  After all the work the scouts do, your stuck with what is left over and when you get a run on a position. You mite not have any grade on the people that are left.

 

There's like 50 guys on the DL in this draft who would have a chance to make the Bills roster. This is a big reason I actually like that cluster of 5's the Bills hold, there are guys who can definitely make it that will be in that range - there is going to be value there.

Edited 21 hours ago by Ralonzo

[Virgil]

@Ralonzo it’s also probably safe to cut the two edge players, or at least one of them.   

[Ralonzo]

We've dropped Bradyn Swinson and JT Tuimalaou from the poll as combined they would still be trailing Farmer or Watts.

 

If one of those was your selection you may re-vote for one of the final 2.

[DrDawkinstein]

The obvious choice is Watts. Just to see the board melt down as the Bills go DB in both of the first 2 rounds.

[TBBills Fan]

With the way the board played out. I wonder if we see us stand pat at pick 30 and package up one of the 2nd with other picks/players and love up in the 2nd

[Ralonzo]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

The obvious choice is Watts. Just to see the board melt down as the Bills go DB in both of the first 2 rounds.

 

To me it's obvious in terms of Farmer isn't really a fit, he's another penetrator and not an anchor guy eating blocks. You just got done passing on a far superior player in Nolen for this reason, TSW... what are you doing here? Farmer doesn't stand up double-teams well at all. You're still going to need a true 1T down the line - on Day 3 where the 2-down run stuffers get drafted. And Farmer is just more of the Oliver/Carter/Ogunjobi flavor to me.

Edited 21 hours ago by Ralonzo

[H2o]

I love Watts. ND guy, and you all know me. ND homer  I've watched him make plays for the Irish defense the last 2 years. And I think he would be at the least a really good player, but do we really want to spend a 2nd on a guy who will most likely would not be the starter? Though I do like the young shift it would at least symbolize in the Secondary. But when I look at the Eagles and the Bucs, the two teams who beat Mahomes in the SB, they didn't do it with some amazing Secondary. It was the DL that made Mahomes uncomfortable all game long. It forced him into errors and disrupted his timing. That's what we need. 

[Brandon]

  I'm not a huge fan of taking two defensive backs in a row, but this is a relatively easy choice...I would select Watts.

 

I'm surprised that Farmer is polling this well. He doesn't seem like a great fit here and is likely to be 2nd in the rotation to Ed Oliver. They need a 1T and I don't think Farmer is that.  

[Ralonzo]

25 minutes ago, H2o said:

I love Watts. ND guy, and you all know me. ND homer  I've watched him make plays for the Irish defense the last 2 years. And I think he would be at the least a really good player, but do we really want to spend a 2nd on a guy who will most likely would not be the starter? Though I do like the young shift it would at least symbolize in the Secondary. But when I look at the Eagles and the Bucs, the two teams who beat Mahomes in the SB, they didn't do it with some amazing Secondary. It was the DL that made Mahomes uncomfortable all game long. It forced him into errors and disrupted his timing. That's what we need. 

 

Philly didn't allow KC receivers free releases off the line that Buffalo did. No DL in the world gets home if the QB is getting rid of the ball in 2 seconds. The Eagles drafted secondary with their first two picks last year. They contested the short routes and didn't up the give easy pitch & catches in a soft zone, made Mahomes hold the ball just that one extra beat... and their DL ate up those crappy tackles and put him on the ground.

 

What Watts does for your team is: takes the ball away. It's a scheme of McDefense to put players in position to give the ball back to the offense and I'd say there really isn't any safety currently on the roster for whom that is (or projects to be) a strength of their game. You can see Watts' receiver skill-set on tape: he gets the ball for you. As opposed to Farmer, I think the Bills have a few of those already.

Edited 21 hours ago by Ralonzo

[OldTimer1960]

I voted for Watts - I don’t think the need at S is as grave as others do, but Watts is a very good prospect at this point.  I would rather have gotten a DT and I think Farmer can be a good player, but Watts is the better more proven prospect.  I might be inclined to stretch a bit and take Farmer at 62

Edited 20 hours ago by OldTimer1960

[Ralonzo]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I voted for Watts - I don’t think the need at S is as grave as others do, but Watts is a very good prospect at this point.  I would rather have gotten a DT and I think Farmer can be a good player, but Watts is the better more proven prospect.  I might be inclined to stretch a bit and take Farmer at 62

 

I think there will be guys similar to Farmer at 62, 109, 132. I don't think there's going to be a Watts-caliber guy there.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Ralonzo said:

I've got a similar guys to Ingram-Dawkins for power edge who popped to me at the combine in that range.  That's part of why I shaded to Xavier Watts at this pick, Watts is just too much of value+fit+need+separation-from-the-next-tier at this slot to pass on, and there's sleepers at edge and 1T that can be had in the middle of Day 3.

 

For power edge I liked what I saw from Ahmed Hassanein the Egyptian Magician from Boise State. He's only been playing the game for a couple years and has gone for zero to draftable in a short time. Also you could go with Tyler Batty out of BYU or Elijah Roberts from SMU. As far as traditional pass-rushing edge, Fadil Diggs of Syracuse and Jah Joyner of Minnesota are toolsy guys with speed to press the edge in packages but also frame and physical tools to develop.

 

We know the Bills have met with Zeek Biggers from Georgia Tech for their 1T role, others have noted Florida's Cam Jackson and JJ Pegues from Ole Miss. Nazir Stackhouse from Georgia is another 2-down blocker-eater. Because of the lack of pass rush those guys will slide down the board but they are fine the way the Bills use the DL rotation.

 

There's like 50 guys on the DL in this draft who would have a chance to make the Bills roster. This is a big reason I actually like that cluster of 5's the Bills hold, there are guys who can definitely make it that will be in that range - there is going to be value there.

Yes, I selected Watts for the reasons you enumerated. I live near Athens and am more aware of the SEC. Those other Edge players are worth a day 3 shot as well.

[OldTimer1960]

21 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

I think there will be guys similar to Farmer at 62, 109, 132. I don't think there's going to be a Watts-caliber guy there.

Maybe, but I’d feel a lot better getting one by 62.  It’s a loooong way from 62 to 109.

[No_Matter_What]

2 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

I feel like most try to predict what Beane will do. And this is what he would do. I voted for Amos, obviously not knowing if Porter would be here. I suppose my question is, if we took Nolen and Porter was gone here, then what do we do? Is Dane Jackson is your starting corner. Draft time is fun and it’s a crapshoot! It’s a fun exercise to go through! 
 

But I think the biggest thing is what the boards mindset is…are we predicting what we think will happen and what Beane will do? Are we taking BPA? Or we just taking the guy we like? I think all three of those mindsets would result in a very different experience.

As for the first bolded, that's the same response I got from @HappyDays but I don't get it. It doesn't matter what Beane would do, vote should be about what TSW would do. 

 

As for the second, I don't know and don't care. Take BPA on reasonable position in Nolen and figure your next moves then. Maybe there will be a CB we like when we pick, maybe we will need a little trade up, maybe we end up with taking WR and DE and then take two shots on CBs in the fifth round.

 

All I know is that you DO NOT DRAFT FOR NEED in early rounds. That is just bad business.

[H2o]

42 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Philly didn't allow KC receivers free releases off the line that Buffalo did. No DL in the world gets home if the QB is getting rid of the ball in 2 seconds. The Eagles drafted secondary with their first two picks last year. They contested the short routes and didn't up the give easy pitch & catches in a soft zone, made Mahomes hold the ball just that one extra beat... and their DL ate up those crappy tackles and put him on the ground.

 

What Watts does for your team is: takes the ball away. It's a scheme of McDefense to put players in position to give the ball back to the offense and I'd say there really isn't any safety currently on the roster for whom that is (or projects to be) a strength of their game. You can see Watts' receiver skill-set on tape: he gets the ball for you. As opposed to Farmer, I think the Bills have a few of those already.

Like I said, I love Watts. I know exactly what type of player he is. I've watched every snap he played in an ND uniform.

 

Free release or no free release, if you're giving Mahomes 5 or 6 seconds back there then someone is going to uncover every time and he will find them. He didn't have that against Tampa and he didn't have that against Philly, but he seems to have 5 or 6 seconds against use every time. 

 

Look at the investment Philly put into their DL as well, prior to drafting Secondary. They also had guys in place in the Secondary they either traded for or signed in FA. Two years in a row they spent the #13 and the #9 picks on DT's. Then, last year they drafted Mitchell and DeJean in the 1st and 2nd. The DL investment came first.

 

The way this draft has played out, I would select Farmer here. I also voted to take Nolen in the 1st. I wouldn't have hesitated to run to the podium for that pick. Then I would be drafting different here. 

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I love how every year we do this we hate the Bills picks despite this being a Bills message board.  LOL.

 

That's the curse of drafting late every year. With your 1st round pick you're selecting 2nd round prospects. With your 2nd round picks you're selecting 3rd round prospects. This exercise proves that Beane's job is hard and we can see why he often gets antsy fo trade up a few picks in the 1st round. And also I think the board made a mistake taking the safer player/cleaner roster projection (Amos) over the BPA who didn't necessarily fill an immediate need (Nolen). But that is a realistic mistake that even I voted for because I could see Beane making it. And we are seeing that that mistake has followed us all the way to our 2nd round picks and taken a possibly better option out of consideration. The exercise proves that Beane's job is hard but it also proves that taking BPA with every early pick is still the best avenue for success and the whole draft can fall apart if you don't stick to it religiously.