TSW 1.0 Poll - Who should the Bills select at #56 ? (closes 2pm EDT)

[DrDawkinstein]

54 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Philly didn't allow KC receivers free releases off the line that Buffalo did. No DL in the world gets home if the QB is getting rid of the ball in 2 seconds. The Eagles drafted secondary with their first two picks last year. They contested the short routes and didn't up the give easy pitch & catches in a soft zone, made Mahomes hold the ball just that one extra beat... and their DL ate up those crappy tackles and put him on the ground.

 

What Watts does for your team is: takes the ball away. It's a scheme of McDefense to put players in position to give the ball back to the offense and I'd say there really isn't any safety currently on the roster for whom that is (or projects to be) a strength of their game. You can see Watts' receiver skill-set on tape: he gets the ball for you. As opposed to Farmer, I think the Bills have a few of those already.

 

Agreed. Philly's D Backfield was just as good, if not better, than their front 7.

 

Quinyon Mitchell, CJGJ, Slay, DeJean, and Blankenship.

 

For what it's worth, the Eagles went CB-CB in the first 2 rounds last year and walked away with 2 players who were both up for DROY.

[Virgil]

Perfect 50/50 tie

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Perfect 50/50 tie

 

 

[scuba guy]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Perfect 50/50 tie

Sorry Virgil that was me I had to do it.

 

We need both just take 2.

Maybe it'll make up for that Maybin disaster from a few years ago.

 

Or the dt with the bad back.  Can't remember his name

[HappyDays]

20 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

As for the first bolded, that's the same response I got from @HappyDays but I don't get it. It doesn't matter what Beane would do, vote should be about what TSW would do. 

 

I take mock drafting to be an exercise in predicting where players will go. We're not building a big board, we're building a draft. Taking Amos over Nolen seems like a Beane move for a few reasons.

[Kirby Jackson]

5 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I partly agree but Nolen over Amos isn't hindsight. I said it when we chose him. Amos over Nolen is just bad drafting based on the need. I can't phantom how majority of the board criticize Beane for drafting for need and then does the same.

 

We reached for CB in the first only to reach for DT in the second. Amazing job TSW lol.

 

And yeah I know that in reality there are trades available but the point stands.

100% agree. You always take the better player. The biggest need is CB but it isn’t the only need. 
 

The irony is that the round 2 poll is the exact same thing!! Do you draft the bigger need in Farmer or the better player in Watts? We went bigger need in round 1. 

Edited 20 hours ago by Kirby Jackson

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Perfect 50/50 tie

 

I changed my vote from Tuimoloau to Watts for one simple reason - Farmer is much more likely to still be there at 62. Even Beane I think would know this and make his decision accordingly, if these were the two players he was debating between.

 

In general I think this area of the draft is way too high for Farmer. I know he is a bet on traits player but by pretty much any consensus ranking this would be a reach. I think fans are giving too much weight to the fact that the Bills have met with him a lot. We met with Troy Franklin a lot too and passed on him three times. We met with Justin Shorter a lot but we took him where he was projected on day three. The Bills publicly showing interest in a player doesn't mean they are going to reach for him. It may actually mean the opposite, that they have serious questions about the player and need to do more digging to round off the evaluation.

[OldTimer1960]

21 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's the curse of drafting late every year. With your 1st round pick you're selecting 2nd round prospects. With your 2nd round picks you're selecting 3rd round prospects. This exercise proves that Beane's job is hard and we can see why he often gets antsy fo trade up a few picks in the 1st round. And also I think the board made a mistake taking the safer player/cleaner roster projection (Amos) over the BPA who didn't necessarily fill an immediate need (Nolen). But that is a realistic mistake that even I voted for because I could see Beane making it. And we are seeing that that mistake has followed us all the way to our 2nd round picks and taken a possibly better option out of consideration. The exercise proves that Beane's job is hard but it also proves that taking BPA with every early pick is still the best avenue for success and the whole draft can fall apart if you don't stick to it religiously.

With you on most of this, but the whispers of character issues with Nolan may be real (we won’t know what the team does).  I agree Nolan is more talented than Amos (imho).

[HappyDays]

14 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

With you on most of this, but the whispers of character issues with Nolan may be real (we won’t know what the team does).  I agree Nolan is more talented than Amos (imho).

 

It depends on what kind of character issues. Mike Green has had sexual assault allegations and rumors of more that haven't been revealed yet, so that's a player I'd have off my board. James Pearce has reportedly skipped practices without telling anyone which reminds me of Jermaine Burton so I would stay away from him as well. With Nolen the reported character concerns sound more vague. Nothing serious has been reported, just general concerns about his motivation and effort. I get that that isn't nothing, but we have a strong culture and locker room that affords us to take the risk IMO. No championship team is made up of exclusively boy scouts.

[OldTimer1960]

45 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed. Philly's D Backfield was just as good, if not better, than their front 7.

 

Quinyon Mitchell, CJGJ, Slay, DeJean, and Blankenship.

 

For what it's worth, the Eagles went CB-CB in the first 2 rounds last year and walked away with 2 players who were both up for DROY.

I’m not disagreeing with the strategy, but the CB class this year is not as good as last year’s and DeJean was pick 40 - far earlier than 56.  Also, Philly already had their DL in place.

 

Edited 19 hours ago by OldTimer1960

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed. Philly's D Backfield was just as good, if not better, than their front 7.

 

Quinyon Mitchell, CJGJ, Slay, DeJean, and Blankenship.

 

For what it's worth, the Eagles went CB-CB in the first 2 rounds last year and walked away with 2 players who were both up for DROY.

They could do that partially because they have invested heavily and hit on early round DL picks in prior drafts, though your point remains.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

BPA Watts. Go Irish.

[No_Matter_What]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I take mock drafting to be an exercise in predicting where players will go. We're not building a big board, we're building a draft. Taking Amos over Nolen seems like a Beane move for a few reasons.

Ok, we differ in opinions. I don't see a reason to guess what Beane would do. I agree we are not building a big board, but to me this is not mock when it comes to Bills, this is simulation of real draft.

 

And in this simulation, TSW takes same wrong approach as (sometimes) Beane.

[Virgil]

I have to think about how to properly evaluate a Bills trade up for the next round.  I think I'm going to open the 2.0 sign-up thread with a poll for the players most wanted.  Then, maybe put a few people together to decide on trades.  

 

There's really no perfect way to do it, but the point of this was to always explore different opportunities and see how things play out.  I'm wondering if 2.0 tries a trade up with our 1st and 2nd, and 3.0 entertains a trade with our 1st and both seconds (even though I think that's a bit much and can't image the Bills only having one pick in the first 3 rounds.  

[frostbitmic]

Doesn't get much closer than this.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

That's the curse of drafting late every year. With your 1st round pick you're selecting 2nd round prospects. With your 2nd round picks you're selecting 3rd round prospects. This exercise proves that Beane's job is hard and we can see why he often gets antsy fo trade up a few picks in the 1st round. And also I think the board made a mistake taking the safer player/cleaner roster projection (Amos) over the BPA who didn't necessarily fill an immediate need (Nolen). But that is a realistic mistake that even I voted for because I could see Beane making it. And we are seeing that that mistake has followed us all the way to our 2nd round picks and taken a possibly better option out of consideration. The exercise proves that Beane's job is hard but it also proves that taking BPA with every early pick is still the best avenue for success and the whole draft can fall apart if you don't stick to it religiously.

I agree with this but what I always have trouble with was Elam and Kincaid the two last first round grades Beane had within striking distance?  We'll pry never no.  I remember being alarmed when Beane commented about giving up a 5th to move two spots up for Cody Ford in the because their were a run on tackles.  So maybe after the run on CB's and WR's in the 1st round Beane could've panicked and picked Elam and Kincaid because we needed a CB and another pass catching option for Allen.  On the other hand, he traded back for guys like Coleman and Cook they didn't have 1st (Coleman) or 2nd (Cook) round grades on so maybe he did have Elam/Kincaid as first round grades.  I just wish a reporter could give him some truth serum for a press conference one day.

[H2o]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I changed my vote from Tuimoloau to Watts for one simple reason - Farmer is much more likely to still be there at 62. Even Beane I think would know this and make his decision accordingly, if these were the two players he was debating between.

I didn't really take that into account prior to reading this, but I believe you are correct. For some reason I was forgetting our second 2nd  It doesn't take but so much rational thinking for the ND homer switch to flip. Vote changed as well. 

[nosejob]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I take mock drafting to be an exercise in predicting where players will go. We're not building a big board, we're building a draft. Taking Amos over Nolen seems like a Beane move for a few reasons.

BB ended up building and Oline and stocking it well. I'm thinking he does the same with the Dline. I'm praying..

[KOKBILLS]

I like Watts... Don't get me wrong... He's got a knack for finding the ball and I always think that kind of stuff you just can't teach. And yes Taylor Rapp has injury history and could very well be playing his last year in Buffalo... But all that being said if they are all healthy Watts, Rapp, and Bishop are not all going to be on the field together more than maybe 5% of the snaps in 2025... If that... And the Bills safety positions are hard to learn as a Rookie under McD... It's a lot to absorb... Watts would be a pick with 2026 in mind... And that's fine... But I'm not sure the Bills are in that mindset this year. Though I think they may very well trade down a couple spots from 30...I think they are coming up from those late 2nd's because of this exact possible scenario...

 

Plus, maybe I'm dreamer, but I'm very interested in what Babich and McD can get out of Darrick Forrest. 

Edited 7 hours ago by KOKBILLS

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

It depends on what kind of character issues. Mike Green has had sexual assault allegations and rumors of more that haven't been revealed yet, so that's a player I'd have off my board. James Pearce has reportedly skipped practices without telling anyone which reminds me of Jermaine Burton so I would stay away from him as well. With Nolen the reported character concerns sound more vague. Nothing serious has been reported, just general concerns about his motivation and effort. I get that that isn't nothing, but we have a strong culture and locker room that affords us to take the risk IMO. No championship team is made up of exclusively boy scouts.

I agree that it depends on what the concerns are, but if the issues are motivation and effort I think that’s a big deal.  If the issues are that the guy is a jerk, then that’s less concerning but still a concern.