How far up in the 1st round could we move up with one of our 2nds?

[machine gun kelly]

40 minutes ago, DJB said:

I don’t think we move up in the first I think we stand pat. I think we use those middle to late extra picks to move up in round 2 or move up into round 3. 
 

Quality > quantity always 

I don’t see us moving on the first 3 picks as we need in no order, but DT, CB, and DE.  Now having 2 4ths, and 3 5ths is negotiable to move up to get to a 3rd.  That’s plausible.

[BuffaloBillyG]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This is not the year to trade up in the 1st round IMO. If Beane wants to flip one of his later 4ths to go up a couple spots I guess that's fine, but I would not want to part with either of our 2nds. The book on this draft class is that it has little top end talent, but a ton of 2nd and 3rd tier talent. With our first three picks we can likely get three players that are actually graded as being worthy of those spots. And that is not typically possible. So I would just stay put, especially since we have so many needs.

 

The best bet is trading up into the 3rd round using our first 4th rounder. Minnesota is a good target because they only have 4 picks in the entire draft. Going from 109 to 97 would cost one of our late 5th rounders. 

To me, this is exactly why it's the year to move up. 

 

We need top end talent more then 2nd and 3rd tier guys added to the roster at this point. We need to add a difference maker and we actually have the ammunition to get it done. 

 

On top of that it seems like a lot of teams may be open to moving down this year which may make this a buyers market and have to give up a bit less to get a deal done.

 

If we move a 2 to go get a difference maker we have enough to get into the third and grab another tier 3 guy.

[sven233]

There are good arguments to be made both ways in terms of moving up or moving back depending on the round you are talking about.  Personally, unless there is a guy that you 100% have in your top 10 players in the draft sitting there at like 17 or so, I am not sure I am ready to make that kind of a move.  This is fairly unique draft where, outside of a couple top end talents, there are guys all over the first 3 rounds you can see being good players in the league.  The value, in my opinion anyways, starts in the mid 20s and guys picked there could easily be just as good as the picks earlier in the draft.  If anything, while I love having 2 seconds, I would love to move up and get an earlier pick there.  Maybe you can swing our 2 seconds to move up and grab a 3rd in the process.  There are solid players that can absolutely help this team into the 3rd round and it would be wise to try and get in there if you can, especially if you can move up substantially in the second round in the process.

 

I don't expect to use all of our picks this year, that's for sure.  But I want to be strategic about it so we still make enough picks, but really maximizing the value at the same time.  

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

7 hours ago, eee1776 said:

Maybe a trade with Vikings at 24. if that Michigan Dt is available and may not make it to 30.    Minn needs draft picks 

I have probably seen articles from about 15 teams’ beat writers all saying that their team should be taking Kenneth grant from Michigan. Everyone in the 15-30 range seems to think he is their guy! 

[mannc]

54 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I have probably seen articles from about 15 teams’ beat writers all saying that their team should be taking Kenneth grant from Michigan. Everyone in the 15-30 range seems to think he is their guy! 

Grant seems perfect for the Bills and a lot of mocks have him making it to 30, which I question.  

Would folks here be ok packaging one of our 2nds to move up to the teens to make sure we get him?

[Snappysnackcakes]

I just don’t know if it’s worth it. We have a sketchy record with drafting high and an awesome track record for drafting in the later rounds. I’ve been told Beane and coach pick early and the scouts have more input late. If anything, and depending upon who’s available, (duh) I’d look to possibly move back if it breaks in a way to be okay to do-so. I’d actually love to trade a 2nd for a future first. This would definitely be playing the long game, but a rookie where we pick likely isn’t going to contribute much. However, a first that could combined with our own first to move up next year would be much more likely to contribute early. 

[Steve Billieve]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I do think we will be pretty active. While I do believe that you can't believe anything you hear this time of year from a GM, sometimes human nature slips up and hands get tipped a bit.

 

In the past Beane has always said "I like my picks" when talking about the draft. This year when asked in a couple interviews he said "I like my ammunition". A slight change in vocabulary is notable here. He isn't sitting still. 

 

I think if a guy they love drops in the first they are making a move. If the board falls and several guys grades high stay on the board they sit tight round one and make a move up either in round 2 or 3. Either way, don't walk too far from the TV on draft nights 1 or 2... because the Bills may be in the clock far sooner than estimated.

That's exactly what he said when he drafted Josh Allen

[3rdand12]

10 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I do think we will be pretty active. While I do believe that you can't believe anything you hear this time of year from a GM, sometimes human nature slips up and hands get tipped a bit.

 

In the past Beane has always said "I like my picks" when talking about the draft. This year when asked in a couple interviews he said "I like my ammunition". A slight change in vocabulary is notable here. He isn't sitting still. 

 

I think if a guy they love drops in the first they are making a move. If the board falls and several guys grades high stay on the board they sit tight round one and make a move up either in round 2 or 3. Either way, don't walk too far from the TV on draft nights 1 or 2... because the Bills may be in the clock far sooner than estimated.

I am not much caring about moving up per se. Heck I am signed on to trade a higher pick to land the Game Changer that fits a need,

 But do agree Bills are going to add phones and use them both ways , even before the draft.

 It might be two twos that work out ? One much closer  to 34 . Add a gaining early third bundling something

Move up in the 1st if they are totally locked on to an elite prospect , but do not give away the seconds this year. Too much potential for a player or two who will matter 2025 and beyond in that range. Or so I have read

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, sven233 said:

There are good arguments to be made both ways in terms of moving up or moving back depending on the round you are talking about.  Personally, unless there is a guy that you 100% have in your top 10 players in the draft sitting there at like 17 or so, I am not sure I am ready to make that kind of a move.  This is fairly unique draft where, outside of a couple top end talents, there are guys all over the first 3 rounds you can see being good players in the league.  The value, in my opinion anyways, starts in the mid 20s and guys picked there could easily be just as good as the picks earlier in the draft.  If anything, while I love having 2 seconds, I would love to move up and get an earlier pick there.  Maybe you can swing our 2 seconds to move up and grab a 3rd in the process.  There are solid players that can absolutely help this team into the 3rd round and it would be wise to try and get in there if you can, especially if you can move up substantially in the second round in the process.

 

I don't expect to use all of our picks this year, that's for sure.  But I want to be strategic about it so we still make enough picks, but really maximizing the value at the same time.  

I get this, but I like the argument the other way.  When you say the "value starts in the mid-20s," you're talking about it like it's a market, and it is, to some extent.  But just looking at value ignores need.  What this team needs, in my opinion, is a player who's a difference maker.  It's true, there are difference makers to be had in the second round, but they're very difficult to find. It's pure luck.  The difference makers, we all know, are typically found in the top 15.  Not every top 15 is a difference maker, but the chances of getting one there are much, much better than in the second round. 

 

The Bills have a good, solid roster.  They always could use two or three starters out of the draft, but they have plenty of good starters.  Much better to add one guy on the d line who turns out to demand double teams.  He makes everyone around him better.  A guy like that is hard to get in the second round. 

 

If the Bills were building, like maybe the Pats, I agree, give me the picks.  But the Bills are built, and they're looking for someone to put them over the top. For that kind of guy, the Bills have go looking for him. 

[3rdand12]

9 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I like the three picks in the top 60 myself, rather than giving up one to take a swing on someone in the 15-20 range in 1st round.  We have needs on the DL and Secondary, and we also could use another young guy in the WR room.  If the team REALLY loves someone, I’d trust their judgment in moving up to get the guy.  I just think standing pat in the early rounds, they can fill more needs than giving up one of those picks.

 

3 hours ago, folz said:

Looking at the draft value chart that ddaryl linked:

 

Our entire draft (all 10 picks) = 1,468.6 points. That equates to about the 7th or 8th overall pick in the draft. [Obviously Beane is not going to sell the entire draft.]

 

If we traded our first and both seconds to move up, we could get to about the 11th pick.

 

After that, the points for picks in the 4th-7th round drop significantly. For instance, even if we added our two 4th round picks (along with our first and seconds), we could only get up two more spots (to about 9th).

 

And as ddaryl pointed out, answering the OP's original question, our first-round pick and (first) second-round pick could get us up to about the 17th pick.

 

Not sure what Beane and McD are thinking, or if they feel there is a player worth moving up that high for. But, it is feasible to move up into the teens (11-17) without giving up any 2026 picks. And he would still have enough ammo (two 4s, three 5s, two 6s, and possibly a 2nd, depending how high they go) to even sneak back into the end of the third round if he wanted to (with some picks to spare).

 

So, one possible scenario could look like this:

Rd 1: 17th overall pick

Rd 2: 62nd overall

Rd 3: 90th overall

Rd 5: 170th and 173rd overall

Rd 6: 177th and 206th overall

(and he could even then package one 5th and one 6th to move back into the end of the fourth round and come away with 6 picks, one in each of the first 6 rounds...so many possibilities.)

 

As Beane said, he has a lot of ammo (without even any 2026 picks involved), so I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see BBer-Beane moving around the board a good bit this year to find the pieces they need. Just not sure if there is anyone in that 1st-round range (11-17) that they deem worthy of going up to get. I'll let the draftniks dig into that one.

 

 

Thanks for the details folz

Would rather hope to stay closer to thirty and trade to get a guy who will improve the Team day one

There are enough that fit my list if they pick correctly. Theoretically

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

To me, this is exactly why it's the year to move up. 

 

We need top end talent more then 2nd and 3rd tier guys added to the roster at this point. We need to add a difference maker and we actually have the ammunition to get it done. 

 

On top of that it seems like a lot of teams may be open to moving down this year which may make this a buyers market and have to give up a bit less to get a deal done.

 

If we move a 2 to go get a difference maker we have enough to get into the third and grab another tier 3 guy.

Bills have needs. Those need to be solved. In what order I will leave to Beane  lol

[Mike in Horseheads]

12 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

I am not much caring about moving up per se. Heck I am signed on to trade a higher pick to land the Game Changer that fits a need,

 But do agree Bills are going to add phones and use them both ways , even before the draft.

 It might be two twos that work out ? One much closer  to 34 . Add a gaining early third bundling something

Move up in the 1st if they are totally locked on to an elite prospect , but do not give away the seconds this year. Too much potential for a player or two who will matter 2025 and beyond in that range. Or so I have read

According to that silly value thing, our 1st and both seconds might get us to 11 or 12.  I personaly would just keep all of them

[3rdand12]

2 minutes ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

According to that silly value thing, our 1st and both seconds might get us to 11 or 12.  I personaly would just keep all of them

or very nearly

😇

[BillsFanForever19]

10 hours ago, ddaryl said:

Going by the draft chart and using our 1st 2nd rd pick we could possibly move to 16 or 17 IMO.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

 

You shouldn't go by that chart. That's the antiquated Jimmy Johnson model developed in the late 80's. It even says on the description of that very chart: 

 

"Teams are reported to use a revised trade value model in recent years, as discussed by Bill Belichick. Drafttek provides an alternate trade value model, developed by Rich Hill of Pats Pulpit, which we believe more accurately reflect the trades of the past several years"

 

This is the more accurate, modern version you should go by: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

Edited 22 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[billsfan714]

Im in the camp, keep the 3 picks in the first 2 rounds.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

I’d give up 30 and one of our 2nd rounders to get Jahdae Barron.  In a heartbeat.

[Dan in Owego]

21 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

I’d give up 30 and one of our 2nd rounders to get Jahdae Barron.  In a heartbeat.

Will Johnson camp here, and i think it's more likely.

[Snappysnackcakes]

Another thing to consider is that we need cheap talent. We need to find gems late that contribute, even if it’s slight contributions, in order to navigate these max QB contracts. 

[Johnny Hammersticks]

6 minutes ago, Dan in Owego said:

Will Johnson camp here, and i think it's more likely.

I’d take him too.

[Dan in Owego]

16 minutes ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

I’d take him too.

No way to really know this but if he slips to the the late teens i could see Beene making a move, he is a legit top 10 talent imo. Plenty of DT and End prospects to be had later i believe.

[sven233]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I get this, but I like the argument the other way.  When you say the "value starts in the mid-20s," you're talking about it like it's a market, and it is, to some extent.  But just looking at value ignores need.  What this team needs, in my opinion, is a player who's a difference maker.  It's true, there are difference makers to be had in the second round, but they're very difficult to find. It's pure luck.  The difference makers, we all know, are typically found in the top 15.  Not every top 15 is a difference maker, but the chances of getting one there are much, much better than in the second round. 

 

The Bills have a good, solid roster.  They always could use two or three starters out of the draft, but they have plenty of good starters.  Much better to add one guy on the d line who turns out to demand double teams.  He makes everyone around him better.  A guy like that is hard to get in the second round. 

 

If the Bills were building, like maybe the Pats, I agree, give me the picks.  But the Bills are built, and they're looking for someone to put them over the top. For that kind of guy, the Bills have go looking for him. 

 

And I actually agree with this in theory.  My issue is that I don't see this as a very star heavy draft.  I think there are a few of them, but I am not sure I see enough major impact players that will make it into the middle of the round.  I actually think there is a good chance you get the same player in terms of quality at 30 as you would at say 18 or 19.  Just not sure it is worth all you will have to give up to get there.  In other drafts, sure.....but I just don't see this one as a heavy star-laden draft.  But that's just me.  If Beane sees a guy in the late teens that he truly believes is one of the top players in the draft then, by all means, go get him.  As I sit here today, I just don't know who that guy is that will be worth using a 2nd rounder plus probably another pick to go up and get.  Now, if you want to move up a few spots by giving up a 4th or 5th, fine.....  But I am not eager to part with a 2nd for 10 spots or so in this draft.