How far up in the 1st round could we move up with one of our 2nds?

[bills6969]

Mid teens? Would love to get Will Johnson, Mcmillan or Nolen 

 

We’re certainly not going to use all 10 draft picks this year so we should be looking to package some picks to move up.

[ddaryl]

Going by the draft chart and using our 1st 2nd rd pick we could possibly move to 16 or 17 IMO.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Edited April 3 by ddaryl

[strive_for_five_guy]

9 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

Mid teens? Would love to get Will Johnson, Mcmillan or Nolen 

 

We’re certainly not going to use all 10 draft picks this year so we should be looking to package some picks to move up.

I expect more movement up into the 3rd or 4th rounds using our extra draft capital, rather than a big move up in the 1st.  But we’ll see!

[BuffaloBillyG]

I do think we will be pretty active. While I do believe that you can't believe anything you hear this time of year from a GM, sometimes human nature slips up and hands get tipped a bit.

 

In the past Beane has always said "I like my picks" when talking about the draft. This year when asked in a couple interviews he said "I like my ammunition". A slight change in vocabulary is notable here. He isn't sitting still. 

 

I think if a guy they love drops in the first they are making a move. If the board falls and several guys grades high stay on the board they sit tight round one and make a move up either in round 2 or 3. Either way, don't walk too far from the TV on draft nights 1 or 2... because the Bills may be in the clock far sooner than estimated.

[mannc]

21 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

Going by the draft chart and using our 1st 2nd rd pick we could possibly move to 16 or 17 IMO.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

That’s farther up than I would have thought. I could definitely see it happening…

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I expect more movement up into the 3rd or 4th rounds using our extra draft capital, rather than a big move up in the 1st.  But we’ll see!

I disagree. I think if you look at the team building that has gone on in the past couple of years, and particularly in light of the several extensions that were negotiated in the last couple of months, it's easy to see that the Bills are building a team designed to be at maximum strength during the prime of Josh Allen's career.  They need one additional stud player to round out the lineup, someone who is a true playmaker.

 

With the exception of Tre'davius White, the Bills have demonstrated that it is more a matter of luck than skill to get a really special player late in the first round, where the Bills are condemned to be drafting. Greg Russell is a perfect example; great player, but not a really special playmaker. 

 

Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me at all if McDermott were saying to Beane "get me a special guy." And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Beane were thinking that way on his own.

 

We have seen Beane trade up before, when he sees a guy who is very high on his board who has fallen further than he anticipated. He did it with Edmonds, for example. I think if the right guy is someplace in the top 15 or 18, Beane will go after him. 

 

In my mind, the right guy is the 1T  who will truly anchor the defensive line. A special guy in the middle would unleash Oliver and Rousseau, and then McDermott would have the defensive line he wants and needs to run his defense.

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

I do think we will be pretty active. While I do believe that you can't believe anything you hear this time of year from a GM, sometimes human nature slips up and hands get tipped a bit.

 

In the past Beane has always said "I like my picks" when talking about the draft. This year when asked in a couple interviews he said "I like my ammunition". A slight change in vocabulary is notable here. He isn't sitting still. 

 

I think if a guy they love drops in the first they are making a move. If the board falls and several guys grades high stay on the board they sit tight round one and make a move up either in round 2 or 3. Either way, don't walk too far from the TV on draft nights 1 or 2... because the Bills may be in the clock far sooner than estimated.

I agree with all of this.  And I've noticed this change in the bold portion.  I think he has signalled that he will be making moves. 

 

And I think with two seconds he is primed to move up in the first.  He can make that move, save one second, then use the late round picks to move up some in the mid rounds.  

[MrEpsYtown]

51 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I expect more movement up into the 3rd or 4th rounds using our extra draft capital, rather than a big move up in the 1st.  But we’ll see!

 

We all said this last year and they didn't do anything.

 

Perhaps it's true, but I think a trade-up for an impact player in the first makes some sense this year. I also like the idea of three lottery tickets in the top 60 or so in the draft. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

17 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

 

We all said this last year and they didn't do anything.

 

Perhaps it's true, but I think a trade-up for an impact player in the first makes some sense this year. I also like the idea of three lottery tickets in the top 60 or so in the draft. 

I like the three picks in the top 60 myself, rather than giving up one to take a swing on someone in the 15-20 range in 1st round.  We have needs on the DL and Secondary, and we also could use another young guy in the WR room.  If the team REALLY loves someone, I’d trust their judgment in moving up to get the guy.  I just think standing pat in the early rounds, they can fill more needs than giving up one of those picks.

[eee1776]

Maybe a trade with Vikings at 24. if that Michigan Dt is available and may not make it to 30.    Minn needs draft picks 

[BuffaloBillyG]

51 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree with all of this.  And I've noticed this change in the bold portion.  I think he has signalled that he will be making moves. 

 

And I think with two seconds he is primed to move up in the first.  He can make that move, save one second, then use the late round picks to move up some in the mid rounds.  

Agree. With where the picks are located he has the ability to move up in any round while still able to slide back and pick up later round picks (or maybe some in next year's draft) and play the board more. He has a lot of freedom to move to where he wants to be based on how the board falls on draft nights. I'm hopeful he will be more aggressive than reactionary this year. 

[Shaw66]

I would love a move into the teens, for whatever talent Beane sees there.

[HappyDays]

This is not the year to trade up in the 1st round IMO. If Beane wants to flip one of his later 4ths to go up a couple spots I guess that's fine, but I would not want to part with either of our 2nds. The book on this draft class is that it has little top end talent, but a ton of 2nd and 3rd tier talent. With our first three picks we can likely get three players that are actually graded as being worthy of those spots. And that is not typically possible. So I would just stay put, especially since we have so many needs.

 

The best bet is trading up into the 3rd round using our first 4th rounder. Minnesota is a good target because they only have 4 picks in the entire draft. Going from 109 to 97 would cost one of our late 5th rounders. 

[JP51]

5 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I disagree. I think if you look at the team building that has gone on in the past couple of years, and particularly in light of the several extensions that were negotiated in the last couple of months, it's easy to see that the Bills are building a team designed to be at maximum strength during the prime of Josh Allen's career.  They need one additional stud player to round out the lineup, someone who is a true playmaker.

 

With the exception of Tre'davius White, the Bills have demonstrated that it is more a matter of luck than skill to get a really special player late in the first round, where the Bills are condemned to be drafting. Greg Russell is a perfect example; great player, but not a really special playmaker. 

 

Therefore, it wouldn't surprise me at all if McDermott were saying to Beane "get me a special guy." And it wouldn't surprise me at all if Beane were thinking that way on his own.

 

We have seen Beane trade up before, when he sees a guy who is very high on his board who has fallen further than he anticipated. He did it with Edmonds, for example. I think if the right guy is someplace in the top 15 or 18, Beane will go after him. 

 

In my mind, the right guy is the 1T  who will truly anchor the defensive line. A special guy in the middle would unleash Oliver and Rousseau, and then McDermott would have the defensive line he wants and needs to run his defense.

I agree, I can see using one of our seconds to move up into the teens and get a difference maker... 

[folz]

Looking at the draft value chart that ddaryl linked:

 

Our entire draft (all 10 picks) = 1,468.6 points. That equates to about the 7th or 8th overall pick in the draft. [Obviously Beane is not going to sell the entire draft.]

 

If we traded our first and both seconds to move up, we could get to about the 11th pick.

 

After that, the points for picks in the 4th-7th round drop significantly. For instance, even if we added our two 4th round picks (along with our first and seconds), we could only get up two more spots (to about 9th).

 

And as ddaryl pointed out, answering the OP's original question, our first-round pick and (first) second-round pick could get us up to about the 17th pick.

 

Not sure what Beane and McD are thinking, or if they feel there is a player worth moving up that high for. But, it is feasible to move up into the teens (11-17) without giving up any 2026 picks. And he would still have enough ammo (two 4s, three 5s, two 6s, and possibly a 2nd, depending how high they go) to even sneak back into the end of the third round if he wanted to (with some picks to spare).

 

So, one possible scenario could look like this:

Rd 1: 17th overall pick

Rd 2: 62nd overall

Rd 3: 90th overall

Rd 5: 170th and 173rd overall

Rd 6: 177th and 206th overall

(and he could even then package one 5th and one 6th to move back into the end of the fourth round and come away with 6 picks, one in each of the first 6 rounds...so many possibilities.)

 

As Beane said, he has a lot of ammo (without even any 2026 picks involved), so I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see BBer-Beane moving around the board a good bit this year to find the pieces they need. Just not sure if there is anyone in that 1st-round range (11-17) that they deem worthy of going up to get. I'll let the draftniks dig into that one.

 

 

[DJB]

I don’t think we move up in the first I think we stand pat. I think we use those middle to late extra picks to move up in round 2 or move up into round 3. 
 

Quality > quantity always 

[LABILLBACKER]

One caveat is that most pundits feel there are only 12-14 true 1st round caliber players.  If we burn a 2nd round pick to draft between 15-18 is it really worth it?  I'd try to stay put at 30 and hope Grant or Amos are still there. Or give up a 4th to move up a few slots for Grant.

[Motorin']

7 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I expect more movement up into the 3rd or 4th rounds using our extra draft capital, rather than a big move up in the 1st.  But we’ll see!

 

Live look at Beane's pockets full of late round draft picks:

 

[Einstein]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

 They need one additional stud player to round out the lineup, someone who is a true playmaker.

 

Great post Shaw. I agree with you.

[Augie]

32 minutes ago, DJB said:

I don’t think we move up in the first I think we stand pat. I think we use those middle to late extra picks to move up in round 2 or move up into round 3. 
 

Quality > quantity always 

 

I think we stand pat as well, and if we DO move I could see going back a few spots like we did last year. I’m too lazy to look it up at the moment, but what would it take to get back into the 3rd round?