TSW 1.0 Poll - Who should the Bills select at #30 (Poll Closed)

[Bill from NYC]

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m always fascinated by your line in the sand on this. As a hypothetical, if by some miracle, Jhadae Barron or Will Johnson fell to 30 would you be okay with it? They are both top 10 talents in this draft and play the 1 starting position that’s definitely available. Would you still be in the “hell no” category or does the value of the player make you comfortable enough?

Thanks for the question, and the manner in which it was asked.   I could start from when our best players (Kelly, Thurman, Bruce, and Andre) all aged at virtually the same time and not enough thought was given to replacing them, No, Levy wanted defensive backs. Remember his quote, "You can't have too many corners?" True I suppose but at that time it was less of a passing league, but I digress.

 

In 2001, we had pick #14. We had a horrible OL. They passed on Steve Hutchinson and Jeff Backus and drafted Clements who was "good." Even very good, but what "good" did it do us?

In 2006, we drafted the undersized Donte Whitner ast #8. Levy claimed to have spurned several trade offers to trade down. He passed on numerous players who would have greatly helped us. How much help was Whitner? I mean really.

In 2008, our OL still sucked. We passed on several really excellent blockers and drafted Leodis McKelvin at #11. 

In 2012, we took Gilmore at #12. We were a weak, cold weather, NFC East Team, in which two of our rivals also played in the cold. How did that work out?

In 2017, McDermott (as you know Beane wasn't there to blame) traded the Mahomes pick (#10) and selected Tre White. If we did not luck into Josh Allen the next year we would be the Browns, or close to it.

In 2022, we actually traded UP and took Kaiir Elem. Disaster.

 

My thing is that enough is enough. Josh needs weapons and protection. He is carrying this team. @Simonwho IS a defensive back once told me on this board that eventually, any NFL receiver will get open at some point. You can't cover them forever. I don't know, maybe Mel Blount could have. 

 

Imo, the above listed picks tell the story, and there is more. How many games did Sauce Gardner win for the Jets? I will stop here because I am not trying to annoy Simon yet again.  

 

In short, my priorities for the team are receivers, blocking and pass rush. Corners and safeties are imo.....secondary.

 

Jmo.

 

 

 

 

Edited 23 hours ago by Bill from NYC

[Virgil]

4 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thanks for the question, and the manner in which it was asked.   I could start from when our best players (Kelly, Thurman, Bruce, and Andre) all aged at virtually the same time and not enough thought was given to replacing them, No, Levy wanted defensive backs. Remember his quote, "You can't have too many corners?" True I suppose but at that time it was less of a passing league, but I digress.

 

In 2001, we had pick #14. We had a horrible OL. They passed on Steve Hutchinson and Jeff Backus and drafted Clements who was "good." Even very good, but what "good" did it do us?

In 2006, we drafted the undersized Donte Whitner ast #8. Levy claimed to have spurned several trade offers to trade down. He passed on numerous players who would have greatly helped us. How much help was Whitner? I mean really.

In 2008, our OL still sucked. We passed on several really excellent blockers and drafted Leodis McKelvin at #11. 

In 2012, we took Gilmore at #12. We were a weak, cold weather, NFC East Team, in which two of our rivals also played in the cold. How did that work out?

In 2017, McDermott (as you know Beane wasn't there to blame) traded the Mahomes pick (#10) and selected Tre White. If we did not luck into Josh Allen the next year we would be the Browns, or close to it.

In 2022, we actually traded UP and took Kaiir Elem. Disaster.

 

My thing is that enough is enough. Josh needs weapons and protection. He is carrying this team. @Simonwho IS a defensive back once told me on this board that eventually, any NFL receiver will get open at some point. You can't cover them forever. I don't know, maybe Mel Blount could have. 

 

Imo, the above listed picks tell the story, and there is more. How many game did Sauce Gardner win for the Jets? I will stop here because I am not trying to annoy Simon yet again.  

 

In short, my priorities for the team are receivers, blocking and pass rush. Corners and safeties are imo.....secondary.

 

Jmo.

 

 

 

 

With all the being said, knowing our offense is top three and we are essentially running the same players back, would you still go offense in the 1st?   
 

I personally don’t see a weapon available at 30 that will make them much better, if at all.  
 

Right now, we need our difference makers on defense than can disrupt the opposing offense.  
 

JMO

[Desert Bills Fan]

22 minutes ago, Virgil said:

With all the being said, knowing our offense is top three and we are essentially running the same players back, would you still go offense in the 1st?   
 

I personally don’t see a weapon available at 30 that will make them much better, if at all.  
 

Right now, we need our difference makers on defense than can disrupt the opposing offense.  
 

JMO

I think that is the truth. I have done several of the mock draft simulations, and the difference makers available at 30 are on defense. DT, CB, S…..A WR here would be a reach, and poor value, possession or slot guys. I don’t like teams reaching for positions of need.

[nosejob]

56 minutes ago, Desert Bills Fan said:

I think that is the truth. I have done several of the mock draft simulations, and the difference makers available at 30 are on defense. DT, CB, S…..A WR here would be a reach, and poor value, possession or slot guys. I don’t like teams reaching for positions of need.

This team does it every year.  So if I had to put a Hundy on it, I would put it on Corner,

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thanks for the question, and the manner in which it was asked.   I could start from when our best players (Kelly, Thurman, Bruce, and Andre) all aged at virtually the same time and not enough thought was given to replacing them, No, Levy wanted defensive backs. Remember his quote, "You can't have too many corners?" True I suppose but at that time it was less of a passing league, but I digress.

 

In 2001, we had pick #14. We had a horrible OL. They passed on Steve Hutchinson and Jeff Backus and drafted Clements who was "good." Even very good, but what "good" did it do us?

In 2006, we drafted the undersized Donte Whitner ast #8. Levy claimed to have spurned several trade offers to trade down. He passed on numerous players who would have greatly helped us. How much help was Whitner? I mean really.

In 2008, our OL still sucked. We passed on several really excellent blockers and drafted Leodis McKelvin at #11. 

In 2012, we took Gilmore at #12. We were a weak, cold weather, NFC East Team, in which two of our rivals also played in the cold. How did that work out?

In 2017, McDermott (as you know Beane wasn't there to blame) traded the Mahomes pick (#10) and selected Tre White. If we did not luck into Josh Allen the next year we would be the Browns, or close to it.

In 2022, we actually traded UP and took Kaiir Elem. Disaster.

 

My thing is that enough is enough. Josh needs weapons and protection. He is carrying this team. @Simonwho IS a defensive back once told me on this board that eventually, any NFL receiver will get open at some point. You can't cover them forever. I don't know, maybe Mel Blount could have. 

 

Imo, the above listed picks tell the story, and there is more. How many games did Sauce Gardner win for the Jets? I will stop here because I am not trying to annoy Simon yet again.  

 

In short, my priorities for the team are receivers, blocking and pass rush. Corners and safeties are imo.....secondary.

 

Jmo.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't remember the 2001 draft, before my time. The problem with Whitner and McKelvin wasn't the position they played. It was talent evaluation. Mike Williams was a blocker. He didn't help us win any games either, cos he sucked. Aaron Maybin was a pass rusher, he didn't help us win any games, cos he sucked. You can throw Kaiir Elam into that mix too. The problem wasn't that he wae a corner. It was that he was a bad player.

 

But the Gilmore pick and the White pick were good. Sure you can question the strategy in 2017 of not taking Mahomes when they had no Quarterback. But they didn't pass on Mahomes to draft Tre White. The two decisions were independent of one another. They passed on Mahomes because McDermott didn't trust himself or the lame duck GM to pick a Quarterback and he wanted his buddy in place to run that process a year later. And while they got lucky to an extent with Josh it was commonly accepted in the run up to the 2017 Draft that the 2018 Quarterback class looked stacked. I remember seeing Charlie Casserley on NFL Network after the 2017 Combine saying "if they were eligible this year three of next year's Quarterbacks would go 1,2,3." But you can't argue he passed on Mahomes because he wanted a corner who he had no idea would still be available 17 picks later.  And Tre White DID help us win games. Instantly. Like the moment he stepped into the building. In the season the Bills went 9-7 and broke our 17 year playoff drought rookie Tre White had THREE game sealing turnovers. A fumble forced and recovered vs the Buccaneers on their final drive in a one score game. An interception vs the Chiefs on their final drive in a one score game and an interception vs the Dolphins on their final drive in a one score game. It is not stretching the point to say without him 2017 coulda been a same old Bills 6-10.

[Bill from NYC]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't remember the 2001 draft, before my time. The problem with Whitner and McKelvin wasn't the position they played. It was talent evaluation. Mike Williams was a blocker. He didn't help us win any games either, cos he sucked. Aaron Maybin was a pass rusher, he didn't help us win any games, cos he sucked. You can throw Kaiir Elam into that mix too. The problem wasn't that he wae a corner. It was that he was a bad player.

 

But the Gilmore pick and the White pick were good. Sure you can question the strategy in 2017 of not taking Mahomes when they had no Quarterback. But they didn't pass on Mahomes to draft Tre White. The two decisions were independent of one another. They passed on Mahomes because McDermott didn't trust himself or the lame duck GM to pick a Quarterback and he wanted his buddy in place to run that process a year later. And while they got lucky to an extent with Josh it was commonly accepted in the run up to the 2017 Draft that the 2018 Quarterback class looked stacked. I remember seeing Charlie Casserley on NFL Network after the 2017 Combine saying "if they were eligible this year three of next year's Quarterbacks would go 1,2,3." But you can't argue he passed on Mahomes because he wanted a corner who he had no idea would still be available 17 picks later.  And Tre White DID help us win games. Instantly. Like the moment he stepped into the building. In the season the Bills went 9-7 and broke our 17 year playoff drought rookie Tre White had THREE game sealing turnovers. A fumble forced and recovered vs the Buccaneers on their final drive in a one score game. An interception vs the Chiefs on their final drive in a one score game and an interception vs the Dolphins on their final drive in a one score game. It is not stretching the point to say without him 2017 coulda been a same old Bills 6-10.

Mike Williams was an overweight RT with an ankle injury, and they stupidly took him over Bryant McKinney who was a great LT for many years.

 

If you think that secondary positions take top priority on a team with no blocking and a poor qb (or even a great one like Josh), there is no point of continuing this discussion, so I will respectfully bow out. 

 

Peace! 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Mike Williams was an overweight RT with an ankle injury, and they stupidly took him over Bryant McKinney who was a great LT for many years.

 

If you think that secondary positions take top priority on a team with no blocking and a poor qb (or even a great one like Josh), there is no point of continuing this discussion, so I will respectfully bow out. 

 

Peace! 

 

I think outside corners are a premium position (alongside QB, pass rusher, left tackle and outside receiver). And I think what should take priority is the best player available at a premium position. When you do that well - as the Bills did with Gilmore and White it can prove itself worthwhile. When they do it badly it doesn't matter if it is Elam at corner or Williams at tackle or Maybin at edge.... it will be a disaster.

[Richard Noggin]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Mike Williams was an overweight RT with an ankle injury, and they stupidly took him over Bryant McKinney who was a great LT for many years.

 

If you think that secondary positions take top priority on a team with no blocking and a poor qb (or even a great one like Josh), there is no point of continuing this discussion, so I will respectfully bow out. 

 

Peace! 

 

Wasn't picking Williams over McKinney partially about who they thought they had at LT already? Which would nicely illustrate this debate that short term "fit"-over-long-term-e v a l = folly. Am I wrong, though, about the short term depth chart influencing a long term fumble? 

 

Edit: Jonas Jennings. Jonas Jennings, a 3rd round pick the year prior, was entering his 2nd pro season and was the expected replacement for a departing John Fina. Did the relatively inexpensive presence of Jonas Jennings, known in college as a super versatile lineman, considered by some as a center coming out, who could have played RG or even just STAYED at RT? Who only played a total of 4 seasons for the Bills, did his presence influence the flop pick of Williams over Mt. McKinney? That kind of thinking almost always limits a roster's ceiling, and sometimes even its floor.

 

No, I wasn't wrong.

Edited 20 hours ago by Richard Noggin

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think outside corners are a premium position (alongside QB, pass rusher, left tackle and outside receiver). And I think what should take priority is the best player available at a premium position. When you do that well - as the Bills did with Gilmore and White it can prove itself worthwhile. When they do it badly it doesn't matter if it is Elam at corner or Williams at tackle or Maybin at edge.... it will be a disaster.

I think what @Bill from NYC has right is that when you look at independent affect on the game of your listed "premium positions," CB is the probably the least.

 

Put another way, if you could have top 5 at any of those positions, I think CB would be the last pick.

 

All that being said, for every losing season the Jets had with Sauce Gardner, how many winning seasons did they have with Revis being their only true superstar?

[Bill from NYC]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

I think what @Bill from NYC has right is that when you look at independent affect on the game of your listed "premium positions," CB is the probably the least.

 

Put another way, if you could have top 5 at any of those positions, I think CB would be the last pick.

 

All that being said, for every losing season the Jets had with Sauce Gardner, how many winning seasons did they have with Revis being their only true superstar?

You raise a great point about Revis, who btw I was 100% positive that the Bills would draft in 2007 (not that I wanted them to lol). I had never seen him play and knew nothing about him.

 

That said, Revis was a great player, a true superstar. He along with Mel Blount were the best corners that I can remember watching, and the Bills could have drafted him at #12. Instead, they drafted a running back (Marshawn Lynch) and the Jets took Revis at #14. The Lynch pick was almost almost certainly ordered by Mr. Wilson, in his quest to "put fannies in the seats."

 

If the Bills, seemingly as a matter of course, draft a first round corner, so be it. I hope that it works and that he grabs an interception in the Super Bowl and returns it for a touchdown. My point is that it hasn't worked so far. 

 

[The Jokeman]

36 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

You raise a great point about Revis, who btw I was 100% positive that the Bills would draft in 2007 (not that I wanted them to lol). I had never seen him play and knew nothing about him.

 

That said, Revis was a great player, a true superstar. He along with Mel Blount were the best corners that I can remember watching, and the Bills could have drafted him at #12. Instead, they drafted a running back (Marshawn Lynch) and the Jets took Revis at #14. The Lynch pick was almost almost certainly ordered by Mr. Wilson, in his quest to "put fannies in the seats."

 

If the Bills, seemingly as a matter of course, draft a first round corner, so be it. I hope that it works and that he grabs an interception in the Super Bowl and returns it for a touchdown. My point is that it hasn't worked so far. 

 

Lynch was a great pick, a shame we shipped him out to Seattle. I would have loved to seen what our offense could have been with Lynch/Jackson and Dez Bryant. 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, FireChans said:

I think what @Bill from NYC has right is that when you look at independent affect on the game of your listed "premium positions," CB is the probably the least.

 

Put another way, if you could have top 5 at any of those positions, I think CB would be the last pick.

 

All that being said, for every losing season the Jets had with Sauce Gardner, how many winning seasons did they have with Revis being their only true superstar?

 

Yea I think that is right. It is 5th out of those 5 positions. But nobody is saying prioritise it over WR, LT, QB, EDGE if you have guys of the same tier there to take.

 

Where I take issue with Bill is he would literally never draft one in the first round. In 2012 when the Bills took Gilmore he was the best player available at a premium position. To get a guy who went after that you can make a reasonable case was on Gilmore's level at a premium position you have to go down as far as Russell Wilson in the 3rd. Now in hindsight that would have been a great pick. But Russ wasn't seen as that level of guy by anyone coming out, even those who liked him.

 

In 2017 you can have a legitimate argument about TJ Watt who went a few picks after a Tre but he is realistically the only one. Again in terms of determining the BPA at a premium spot those were both good selections. You can criticise the draft strategy from 2017, that's legitimate, but it is a different question than the Tre pick.

Edited 10 hours ago by GunnerBill

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I think that is right. It is 5th out of those 5 positions. But nobody is saying prioritise it over WR, LT, QB, EDGE if you have guys of the same tier there to take.

 

Where I take issue with Bill is he would literally never draft one in the first round. In 2012 when the Bills took Gilmore he was the best player available at a premium position. To get a guy who went after that you can make a reasonable case was on Gilmore's level at a premium position you have to go down as far as Russell Wilson in the 3rd. Now in hindsight that would have been a great pick. But Russ wasn't seen as that level of guy by anyone coming out, even those who liked him.

 

In 2017 you can have a legitimate argument about TJ Watt who went a few picks after a Tre but he is realistically the only one. Again in terms of determining the BPA at a premium spot those were both good selections. You can criticise the draft strategy from 2017, that's legitimate, but it is a different question than the Tre pick.

To add some color on the 2012 draft, the Bills tried DESPERATELY to trade up to draft Mark Barron. They thought that they had a deal worked out. They were FURIOUS when it fell through and he went off the board. They “settled” on Gilmore and obviously he ended up as a way better player. We often complain about the deals that fell through (ie the trade up with the Jags to get Big Ben) but sometimes you end up lucking out like the Bills did with Gilmore + picks over Mark Barron.

[T master]

Greg Cosell said Nolen was in his opinion is the best DT or at the top of the list as 1 of the best in this draft so I would go with his expertise over my fan based opinion if he is there at our pick .

[boyst]

17 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thanks for the question, and the manner in which it was asked.   I could start from when our best players (Kelly, Thurman, Bruce, and Andre) all aged at virtually the same time and not enough thought was given to replacing them, No, Levy wanted defensive backs. Remember his quote, "You can't have too many corners?" True I suppose but at that time it was less of a passing league, but I digress.

 

In 2001, we had pick #14. We had a horrible OL. They passed on Steve Hutchinson and Jeff Backus and drafted Clements who was "good." Even very good, but what "good" did it do us?

In 2006, we drafted the undersized Donte Whitner ast #8. Levy claimed to have spurned several trade offers to trade down. He passed on numerous players who would have greatly helped us. How much help was Whitner? I mean really.

In 2008, our OL still sucked. We passed on several really excellent blockers and drafted Leodis McKelvin at #11. 

In 2012, we took Gilmore at #12. We were a weak, cold weather, NFC East Team, in which two of our rivals also played in the cold. How did that work out?

In 2017, McDermott (as you know Beane wasn't there to blame) traded the Mahomes pick (#10) and selected Tre White. If we did not luck into Josh Allen the next year we would be the Browns, or close to it.

In 2022, we actually traded UP and took Kaiir Elem. Disaster.

 

My thing is that enough is enough. Josh needs weapons and protection. He is carrying this team. @Simonwho IS a defensive back once told me on this board that eventually, any NFL receiver will get open at some point. You can't cover them forever. I don't know, maybe Mel Blount could have. 

 

Imo, the above listed picks tell the story, and there is more. How many games did Sauce Gardner win for the Jets? I will stop here because I am not trying to annoy Simon yet again.  

 

In short, my priorities for the team are receivers, blocking and pass rush. Corners and safeties are imo.....secondary.

 

Jmo.

 

 

 

 

This is true, and I agree with every word of it. BUT ... Wait for it. 🤣

Sauce Gardner, Revis, Winfield Jr., and many more I don't even remember right now... great players who take players out of a game essentially. With a top CB the game becomes 10 v 10. Likely that's the teams best WR and sometimes their best player. There was a time when that was extremely valuable. Today's passing league we have the tiers of WR that make this harder to hold up. Your top tier WR's are so proficient that they can beat that CB. There are maybe 5-6 of them in the truly elite tier.

 

Your average starting #1 WR will be shut down by the top 4-5 CB's in the league to get two or less catches. That's significant. But what is more significant is that most teams have legitimate #2 WRs that can beat the dropped off #2 CB much easier than lose the battle. Same with down the list to #3WR and other weapons.

 

The average safety is not significant at this time. There is a reason Hamlin, Rapp, and other serviceable starters float around so much. Whole other can of worms.

 

Returning to the CB; a top CB will command a major salary that is generally better passed around to other defensive players to earn a starting calibre defense across the board. That starting CB is in their prime after their second year in most cases and lasts 2-3 seasons. It's a short shelf life. The elite may get a 6-7 year life with only 3-4 at elite play.

 

Compare that to a WR who is elite for the same time frame or a running back which is less (but never should be drafted high imo), or an OL which lasts 6-8+ years and can play elite for all 8.

 

I'd be just fine getting an elite offensive talent any day over defense.

 

But, here is the but, when we are thin at defense and there is a top 3 position available for the waiting in the later rounds there is little reason not to take the risk. If it is early in the draft and someone grades highly at CB is just as soon take the higher graded offensive weapon, especially at OL.

[Bill from NYC]

46 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

To add some color on the 2012 draft, the Bills tried DESPERATELY to trade up to draft Mark Barron. They thought that they had a deal worked out. They were FURIOUS when it fell through and he went off the board. They “settled” on Gilmore and obviously he ended up as a way better player. We often complain about the deals that fell through (ie the trade up with the Jags to get Big Ben) but sometimes you end up lucking out like the Bills did with Gilmore + picks over Mark Barron.

Thank you for this post. It serves to prove my point about the Bills long time obsession with defensive backs, even if other key parts of the team are lacking.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

To add some color on the 2012 draft, the Bills tried DESPERATELY to trade up to draft Mark Barron. They thought that they had a deal worked out. They were FURIOUS when it fell through and he went off the board. They “settled” on Gilmore and obviously he ended up as a way better player. We often complain about the deals that fell through (ie the trade up with the Jags to get Big Ben) but sometimes you end up lucking out like the Bills did with Gilmore + picks over Mark Barron.

 

Barron would not have been a good pick. Again just strategically, off the ball linebacker with a trade up in the top 10. Yuck.

[Kirby Jackson]

12 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

Thank you for this post. It serves to prove my point about the Bills long time obsession with defensive backs, even if other key parts of the team are lacking.

If I told you who told me this story it would elicit a 🤦🏻‍♂️ emoji. 🤣🤣

 

The Bills often tried to outsmart everyone in how they did their business. They saw Barron as this hybrid LB/DB that would change the way defense was played. They saw Mike Williams as the prototype of an NFL tackle. They liked Maybin over Orakpo because they would be able to harness his athelticism and overlooked production. They liked Spiller because he was a “water bug” (or whatever they called him). They wanted Kelvin Benjamin because he was “open when he wasn’t.” Some of that still lives today. I’d prefer that they just take guys that are good than trying to outthink everyone else. This of course excludes taking a chance on Josh Allen. I love it when it works. 🤣

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, T master said:

Greg Cosell said Nolen was in his opinion is the best DT or at the top of the list as 1 of the best in this draft so I would go with his expertise over my fan based opinion if he is there at our pick .

 

I have Mason Graham #1, Nolen #2. I love Nolen. But I still just question how you get he and Ed Oliver onto the field at the same time. If we didn't already have Ed I would be banging the table very hard for Walter Nolen. 

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

To add some color on the 2012 draft, the Bills tried DESPERATELY to trade up to draft Mark Barron. They thought that they had a deal worked out. They were FURIOUS when it fell through and he went off the board. They “settled” on Gilmore and obviously he ended up as a way better player. We often complain about the deals that fell through (ie the trade up with the Jags to get Big Ben) but sometimes you end up lucking out like the Bills did with Gilmore + picks over Mark Barron.

 

At least that regime kept it a secret. Beane last year publicly congratulated himself for attempting to trade up for Cole Bishop before landing him at our original pick. I mean c'mon man... He's been in the job too long to make rookie PR mistakes like that.