Bills 2025 Draft strategy

[GASabresIUFan]

I think people are not appreciating that TE is a need in this draft.

 

Right now the Bills TE depth is Kincaid, Knox (who is likely in his final season as a Bill), pass catching PS player Davidson and former UDFA Armani Rogers who hasn't played a snap in the NFL since 2022.  

 

With Morris gone as the depth blocking TE and special teams ace, Beane needs to replace those attributes as neither Davidson or Rogers has that skill set.  

Edited yesterday at 03:04 AM by GASabresIUFan

[BillsFanForever19]

19 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The problem is the Bills typically only carry 5 WRs.  4 slots are spoken for and Shenault, like it or not, has the inside track at the KR duties under the newly approved kick off rules.  

 

They also have Shavers, who they like, as depth already in the system.  

 

If they were to keep Shenault as a Return Specialist - he'd be a 6th WR. We always carried 6 when the Return Specialist was a WR and only started carrying 5 WR's when the specialist was at a different position.

 

Shenault is this year's Andy Isabella, K.J. Hamler, or Chase Claypool. His ceiling is FAR more likely than not the Practice Squad. It's where he ended his season last year and it's *incredibly* unlikely he makes the 53.

 

WR was a position we needed to upgrade. Josh Palmer could become something more with Josh. But it's no sure thing. It's a projection. He's a career average sub 600 guy. To roll back Shakir, Coleman, and Samuel to pair with Palmer and Shavers in place of Hollins and Cooper is not only not an upgrade on paper, it's quite possibly a downgrade.

 

19 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

By the way, I think all the LBs after Williams, Bernard and Milano are expendable.  Spector is easily cut and honestly isn’t very good.  Buffalo Joe is a special teams player and Ulofoshio didn’t show really anything as a rookie.  There is little to no cap impact to cutting any of the 3.  We are going to need a 4th LB who can make plays and I don’t see that guy on the roster right now.

 

I agree on Andreesen and especially Spector being expendable. But I see all of Milano, Bernard, Williams, and Olofoshio being here. Olofoshio was a 5th Round Pick last year for us who was considered a value where we picked him and is someone they're developing. Between Bernard, Williams, and Milano - there wasn't really much need to put him on the field. That doesn't mean he isn't coming along or they don't like him.

 

And as you said with WR, we generally only keep 5. In Milano and Williams, I don't see them bringing in an OLB to put above either this season. Again, maybe they bring in a backup to upgrade from Andreesen. But the idea that it's a major need this season and especially above WR where there's a legitimate hole right now? I couldn't disagree more.

Edited 23 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[nosejob]

21 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The problem with not drafting an RB is that it increases the impact of a Cook threat to "hold in" until week 11.

It is possible Frank Gore jr. shows promise.?

[GASabresIUFan]

I went and did a review of our opening day roster the last 5 years and came away with some interesting thoughts on how that might affect our draft strategy

 

Offense

QB - 2 unless we have a draftee.  Current roster 3 - White or Trubisky likely to get cut

OL - 9.   Current roster 10 - Green likely to be cut

RB/FB - 4-5.  Current roster 4.  Draft pick possible but unlikely

TE - 3.  Current roster 2.  Draft pick likely with camp competition with Davidson for the 3rd TE job

WR - 6.  Current roster 5.  In the OP I said I’d like a speedster added and now think that’s likely; guys like Felton, K Williams, A Smith & Thornton

 

Defense

DE - 5.  Current roster 5, but Hoecht suspended.  Draft pick necessary AJE & Bosa on one year deals.

DL - 5. Current roster 4, but Ogunjobi suspended.  Draft pick necessary to add depth and replace D Jones long-term

LB - 6.  Current roster 6, but Spector’s job is tenuous at best. I see a middle rd pick used to replace Spector or Buffalo Joe

CB - 6. Current roster 6, but with Codrington.  Rostered 7 in 2023.  1st rd pick likely used at add a talented CB.

S - 4. Current roster 4.  Carried 5 last year and I think we do it again this year.  Draft pick necessary with 3/4 on 1 year deals.

 

Right now I see Beane drafting 7 players with a CB, DT and Edge early followed by a TE, Speed WR, LB and S later depending on how the draft falls.  UDFA QB Rourke (IU) signed after the draft.

 

[Xerx]

We need more Cowbell!

 

Beefy 1-Tech

Speed at CB

Athlete at S

[JP51]

3 hours ago, nosejob said:

It is possible Frank Gore jr. shows promise.?

I have this suspicion that he can play in this league...  

[JP51]

So who knows who is available when the draft starts... needs everywhere on D and a few potentially on Offense... I think the strategy goes BPA for sure...  I think there are some folks like Douglas, Tre, Winfield etc... without contracts if the went DL... I think they could bring Von back at the right price waiting for Hoecht, Cooper for WR if he is still there etc... gonna guess that one of these people come back on a minimal contract predicated on whom we draft... 

 

that said... if I am looking at tea leaves... the only real position that I dont see out there in FA with a ready made player is 1TDL so if there was a trade up, I could see it being for a Grant type player...  I am hoping he has learned his reach lesson we shall see... I do think there is going to be another move after the draft to sign a player that is needed to compliment our current roster at a position that we cannot envision a draft pick starting or solidly backing up day 1. 

 

My guess.. on Rd 1....  I would rank the odds in the following order. 

 

1. DL - Jones gets cut or becomes a rotational piece, I think if Grant is there we take him.

2. CB/S - Corner for sure but if we see Emmanori or Starks fall... could go there

3. WR -  Interesting if Egbuka or Golden fall to us

4. Edge - I just dont see this rd one... maybe 2  or a trade up in rd 2

 

Edited 16 hours ago by JP51

[Clyde Smith]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I went and did a review of our opening day roster the last 5 years and came away with some interesting thoughts on how that might affect our draft strategy

 

Offense

QB - 2 unless we have a draftee.  Current roster 3 - White or Trubisky likely to get cut

OL - 9.   Current roster 10 - Green likely to be cut

RB/FB - 4-5.  Current roster 4.  Draft pick possible but unlikely

TE - 3.  Current roster 2.  Draft pick likely with camp competition with Davidson for the 3rd TE job

WR - 6.  Current roster 5.  In the OP I said I’d like a speedster added and now think that’s likely; guys like Felton, K Williams, A Smith & Thornton

 

Defense

DE - 5.  Current roster 5, but Hoecht suspended.  Draft pick necessary AJE & Bosa on one year deals.

DL - 5. Current roster 4, but Ogunjobi suspended.  Draft pick necessary to add depth and replace D Jones long-term

LB - 6.  Current roster 6, but Spector’s job is tenuous at best. I see a middle rd pick used to replace Spector or Buffalo Joe

CB - 6. Current roster 6, but with Codrington.  Rostered 7 in 2023.  1st rd pick likely used at add a talented CB.

S - 4. Current roster 4.  Carried 5 last year and I think we do it again this year.  Draft pick necessary with 3/4 on 1 year deals.

 

Right now I see Beane drafting 7 players with a CB, DT and Edge early followed by a TE, Speed WR, LB and S later depending on how the draft falls.  UDFA QB Rourke (IU) signed after the draft.

 

Actually we have five safeties already.

Rapp, Hamlin, Bishop, Forrest and Lewis.

[ColoradoBills]

8 minutes ago, Clyde Smith said:

Actually we have five safeties already.

Rapp, Hamlin, Bishop, Forrest and Lewis.

 

Cam is the primary backup at NCB to Taron Johnson.

He can/has played S too.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

5 hours ago, nosejob said:

It is possible Frank Gore jr. shows promise.?

Possibly! You don't replace a 4.4 guy with a 4.9(?) guy though

Edited 15 hours ago by MiracleAtRich1393

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

Possibly! You don't replace a 4.4 guy with a 4.9(?) guy though

Then you make a 4.51 your primary back your former backup (Ray Davis) and your second backup 4.4 guy (Ty Johnson) your primary backup, draft a RB high next year and start the cycle all over again. 

Edited 13 hours ago by The Jokeman

[MiracleAtRich1393]

8 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Then you make a 4.51 your primary back (Ray Davis) and your backup 4.4 guy (Ty Johnson), draft a RB high next year  day 3 this year and start the cycle all over again. 

 

[ROCBillsBeliever]

So this is a draft strategy post, right? How about for RB, if someone amazing drops to the 4th, we offer Cook for some decently high draft pick(s) NEXT year, and take one of the talented kids on a cheap rookie deal?

 

Win today.

 

Win tomorrow.

 

Let's gooooo!

[QLBillsFan]

6 hours ago, nosejob said:

It is possible Frank Gore jr. shows promise.?

FGJr is more of the Davis style runner. Physical between the tackles and very hard runner. If the Bills have legitimate concerns about Cook they likely use a 5th on a home run RB like Smith from SMU or Blue from Texas. It’s just much a talented group this year to wait imho. 

2 hours ago, Clyde Smith said:

Actually we have five safeties already.

Rapp, Hamlin, Bishop, Forrest and Lewis.

D needs to get better. With the number of picks the Bills have, a deep S with speed is a potential upgrade. If that means Hamlin or Forrest get cut so be it. It’s possible Forrest has an impact but Bills should not shy away from S in this draft. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

If the Bills have legitimate concerns about Cook they likely use a 5th on a home run RB like Smith from SMU or Blue from Texas. It’s just much a talented group this year to wait imho. 

 

 

You are not wrong on this class... but if the Bills draft one of those guys what do they do with them if Cook plays? 

 

They are not keeping 4 plus Gilliam. 

[TheWeatherMan]

On 3/31/2025 at 6:27 PM, BringBackFergy said:

TBD says package all picks to move up for the 5th best WR. 
 

Beane and reasonable minds take BPA at each spot. 
 

It sucks picking late…but that says something about our team (success). 

The last 3 drafts we did not take BPA in rounds 1 or top of Round 2.  Rousseau might be the only consensus BPA pick that Beane has taken in round #1 ( not including Josh).

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, TheWeatherMan said:

The last 3 drafts we did not take BPA in rounds 1 or top of Round 2.  Rousseau might be the only consensus BPA pick that Beane has taken in round #1 ( not including Josh).

 

Oliver was. But agree... Elam, Kincaid and Coleman were picks for need not BPA.

[Xerx]

BPA is not to be taken literally, as best player available in the draft (you couldn't get 10 people to all to agree on 1 guy being that anyways (consensus isn't real in subjective matters)

 

Nobody is taking BPA across all positions, nobody...period

 

Taking BPA is means taking the guy who is on top of our board right now (this would be for position they feel are a need in that area)

 

caveat being that could change later in the draft and you have a player graded much higher than everyone else on your board and you take him, even if he's not a position of need as nothing is completely black and white, and you get to a point where value added is greater to just take that type of guy

 

You aren't doing that with premium picks

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Xerx said:

BPA is not to be taken literally, as best player available in the draft (you couldn't get 10 people to all to agree on 1 guy being that anyways (consensus isn't real in subjective matters)

 

Nobody is taking BPA across all positions, nobody...period

 

Taking BPA is means taking the guy who is on top of our board right now (this would be for position they feel are a need in that area)

 

caveat being that could change later in the draft and you have a player graded much higher than everyone else on your board and you take him, even if he's not a position of need as nothing is completely black and white, and you get to a point where value added is greater to just take that type of guy

 

You aren't doing that with premium picks

 

I'd argue it is even MORE important with premium picks. Best player available at a premium position IMO, with the exception of Quarterback if you have a Quarterback who is proven and under 35/36.

[PromoTheRobot]

Just make sure to draft Shawn Dolac.