Bills 2025 Draft strategy

[QLBillsFan]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are not wrong on this class... but if the Bills draft one of those guys what do they do with them if Cook plays? 

 

They are not keeping 4 plus Gilliam. 

I think it’s the legitimate concerns. As in do they think he will resign at some point? Or if not will they just tag him. If they are fine with that, to your point they just keep him and don’t draft this year. I’m not an astute enough draft guy to know next year’s group. But if they think he’s gone do they trade him? My guess is this all gets worked out in a new contract. It’s one of the more intriguing aspects of this draft. 

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, TheWeatherMan said:

The last 3 drafts we did not take BPA in rounds 1 or top of Round 2.  Rousseau might be the only consensus BPA pick that Beane has taken in round #1 ( not including Josh).

 

They've become predictable with their RD1-3 picks these last 3 drafts.  Lot of low positional value selections coming after 2021 draft.  

 

Yeah...2022 RD1 was need followed by a RB and ILB.  2023 with a TE (where they missed on the WRs), G, and LB then 2024 going straight need at WR, S, and DT.

 

Beane is praised around here for entering the draft supposedly with few needs, yet their board tends to be a lot less BPA for a team expected to make the playoffs.  

It's as if they want to be stable at every position and are content with high floor types to achieve that.     

 

Using the draft for need catches up with a team no matter who you have at QB.  

 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

They've become predictable with their RD1-3 picks these last 3 drafts.  Lot of low positional value selections coming after 2021 draft.  

 

Yeah...2022 RD1 was need followed by a RB and ILB.  2023 with a TE (where they missed on the WRs), G, and LB then 2024 going straight need at WR, S, and DT.

 

Beane is praised around here for entering the draft supposedly with few needs, yet their board tends to be a lot less BPA for a team expected to make the playoffs.  

It's as if they want to be stable at every position and are content with high floor types to achieve that.     

 

Using the draft for need catches up with a team no matter who you have at QB.  

 

 

And while Beane was less need orientated early in his regime, that's kinda when it is easy to be BPA. When you are building it and you have time and patience on your side. When you are right there and feel like you just need a piece or two to get over the hump becomes much easier to convince yourself that the DT who perfectly fits your need is a better player than the corner who doesn't or vice versa. 

 

It's also worth saying the last three drafts are the three without Joe Schoen. And while he has not been a stellar GM in his own right in New York I do know for a fact that he was a vital sounding board for Beane and I was told by someone in the front office - Beane values Joe's player evals more than his own. I am just not sure he has that guy anymore who he can lean on and it shows in some of the day 1 and 2 drafting IMO. 

[BillsFanForever19]

5 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Cam is the primary backup at NCB to Taron Johnson.

He can/has played S too.

 

Cam played more Safety for us last season than he did CB. He's a DB swiss army knife. He was a primary backup at both Safety and Nickel. Lately if you were going to say what his "primary" role is based on usage (mainly to injuries to Rapp and Hamlin) - it would be Safety.

[TheWeatherMan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Oliver was. But agree... Elam, Kincaid and Coleman were picks for need not BPA.

Yep forgot about Oliver

[GASabresIUFan]

9 hours ago, Clyde Smith said:

Actually we have five safeties already.

Rapp, Hamlin, Bishop, Forrest and Lewis.

Lewis is an emergency safety.  Last year he served as Taron's primary backup.

[NeverOutNick]

BPA would be the way to go but Beane is awful (outside of Josh) at picking the actual BPA in the first round. I trust Beane and company with later round corners so I don’t feel the need to grab one early. I hope they have some better talent evaluators for D line and WR because that’s where I’d go first couple rounds if the board falls that way. Also ENOUGH of taking the high character guys like Dwayne Carter. Our locker room is fine just get the best players period that will come up big in the playoffs 

[GASabresIUFan]

3 hours ago, NeverOutNick said:

BPA would be the way to go but Beane is awful (outside of Josh) at picking the actual BPA in the first round. I trust Beane and company with later round corners so I don’t feel the need to grab one early. I hope they have some better talent evaluators for D line and WR because that’s where I’d go first couple rounds if the board falls that way. Also ENOUGH of taking the high character guys like Dwayne Carter. Our locker room is fine just get the best players period that will come up big in the playoffs 

You do know the BPA doesn’t really exist. There is no such thing as a consensus list with every player graded identically. Every team has different criteria in building their list. The Bills have been known to have very specific criteria on physical characteristics for players by position.  Other teams are less restrictive.  Some teams likely weigh need more than others and we also know the Philly likes to draft players off top college teams like GA, OSU and Bame.  Other teams aren’t as picky about which college team a guy played for.  Therefore the Bills list is not the same as KCs, or Phillys or the NYJ’s or etc…. Those lists are also different from the lists made by media members or other so called experts.  
 

That said comparing Beane to well known public lists like Mel Kiper, Beane has rarely “reached” against the perceived consensus.  The only two real reaches my researched revealed were Elam (bust) and Cook (star).  Guys like Ford and Basham were drafted about where the “experts” predicted.  
 

As fans we just have to hope that Beane sticks to his list, but need will play into how that list is constructed.

[NeverOutNick]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

You do know the BPA doesn’t really exist. There is no such thing as a consensus list with every player graded identically. Every team has different criteria in building their list. The Bills have been known to have very specific criteria on physical characteristics for players by position.  Other teams are less restrictive.  Some teams likely weigh need more than others and we also know the Philly likes to draft players off top college teams like GA, OSU and Bame.  Other teams aren’t as picky about which college team a guy played for.  Therefore the Bills list is not the same as KCs, or Phillys or the NYJ’s or etc…. Those lists are also different from the lists made by media members or other so called experts.  
 

That said comparing Beane to well known public lists like Mel Kiper, Beane has rarely “reached” against the perceived consensus.  The only two real reaches my researched revealed were Elam (bust) and Cook (star).  Guys like Ford and Basham were drafted about where the “experts” predicted.  
 

As fans we just have to hope that Beane sticks to his list, but need will play into how that list is constructed.

That’s the point, Beans BPA list needs tweaking early in drafts. He has a great staff around him for the later rounds or maybe he listens to them more later but early in rounds he doesn’t hit home runs (besides Josh). He hits a lot of singles and also strikes out some. Let’s be aggressive and go after more of the Josh talent in the draft. Oliver and Rousseau were solid doubles in the earlier drafts but since 2022 why not trade up a few picks and go after the corner you actually want in McDuffie instead of getting flustered and taking Elam, 2023 we all love Kincaid and thought the value was great but we know WR was the biggest need (and still is) why not go after the best difference maker in Zay Flowers drafted a couple picks ahead of us if that’s what you wanted. The last year again WR being the biggest need, it was unrealistic to go after nabers, odubze or Harrison but BTJ was falling and you could’ve gotten aggressive and got your guy. Instead you get the safe locker room guy who can’t separate by trading back. 
 

Beane is GREAT at getting draft capital and maneuvering in mid to late rounds for what he wants BUT since the Josh aggressiveness his first year, he’s been very timid and cost the team real difference making talent in round 1. Sack up and get er done is all I’m saying 

[frostbitmic]

BPA ... As long as it's a CB or a 1T DT in excess of 325 lbs.

[BillsVet]

15 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

And while Beane was less need orientated early in his regime, that's kinda when it is easy to be BPA. When you are building it and you have time and patience on your side. When you are right there and feel like you just need a piece or two to get over the hump becomes much easier to convince yourself that the DT who perfectly fits your need is a better player than the corner who doesn't or vice versa. 

 

It's also worth saying the last three drafts are the three without Joe Schoen. And while he has not been a stellar GM in his own right in New York I do know for a fact that he was a vital sounding board for Beane and I was told by someone in the front office - Beane values Joe's player evals more than his own. I am just not sure he has that guy anymore who he can lean on and it shows in some of the day 1 and 2 drafting IMO. 

 

Right...those drafts in 2007-08 offered a lot of opportunities to take BPA with needs all over.  Much different situation now and requires threading the needle.  

 

I can understand losing a trusted personnel evaluator is difficult to overcome, but this is bigger picture than individual players.  Their draft strategy in recent years has been more about using the draft for need which often leads to lower ceiling types and/or players at lower positional value positions who aren't impacting the game as much.  And, when they've swung on higher positional value positions, they've struggled there, at least in 2022 and 2023.

 

Also recognize you're going to have areas to improve and no team enters the draft without those.  I see them not using the draft more longer-term and settling for lesser players on Day 1 and 2, particularly from 2022-2024.  Can't do that another year.       

 

 

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Right...those drafts in 2007-08 offered a lot of opportunities to take BPA with needs all over.  Much different situation now and requires threading the needle.  

 

I can understand losing a trusted personnel evaluator is difficult to overcome, but this is bigger picture than individual players.  Their draft strategy in recent years has been more about using the draft for need which often leads to lower ceiling types and/or players at lower positional value positions who aren't impacting the game as much.  And, when they've swung on higher positional value positions, they've struggled there, at least in 2022 and 2023.

 

Also recognize you're going to have areas to improve and no team enters the draft without those.  I see them not using the draft more longer-term and settling for lesser players on Day 1 and 2, particularly from 2022-2024.  Can't do that another year.       

 

 

 

I think Schoen might have been the one guy who Beane listened to in saying "Brandon stop, you are thinking too short term." That is my point about why that loss could be relevant.

[BuffaloBill]

On 4/1/2025 at 1:07 PM, khlax3 said:

Unless there is a guy they love I think they are done at Saftey. They have 5 guys already.

 

Rapp

Bishop

Hamlin

Lewis

Forrest 

 

at corner you have:

Benford 

johnson

jackson

Ingraham 

coddington

 

It’s doubtful they keep more than 11 in the secondary. One early CB pick and then a later pick at CB to compete with Ingram for the last spot

I agree with the comments on safety - the Bills are set there.  Corner and DL are screaming needs and I think the 1st and two second round picks are used on some combo of these positions. Probably 2 DL and 1 CB. 

[Xerx]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I'd argue it is even MORE important with premium picks. Best player available at a premium position IMO, with the exception of Quarterback if you have a Quarterback who is proven and under 35/36.

 

That's a theory that works great on paper, but just not sure it works in reality.

 

No team drafts that way, that being the care in reality means more to me than theories.

 

I'd argue up and down for that philosophy if certain conditions existed.

 

Full Rebuild

No Holes on roster today or next few years coming 

Draft was before free agency 

 

That's not where we are though, we are trying to patch holes for today and tomorrow

 

Give me BPA at Edge, IDL (1tech), CB, WR (Z capable) with those premium picks this year. 

 

1-tech isn't considered a premium position, but that is a major weakness of this team, this year and even more in the future, going to have to address it early in this draft or end up over paying someone in FA...

 

I'd rather overspend draft capital on that position right now than cap space in future 

 

 

 

Edited 8 hours ago by Xerx

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I think Schoen might have been the one guy who Beane listened to in saying "Brandon stop, you are thinking too short term." That is my point about why that loss could be relevant.

 

Entirely plausible.  But not replacing him with someone the GM trusts in the ensuing 3 years and/or learning from their draft decisions is also concerning.

 

We'll see how this draft goes...I'm just seeing them settle for tweaks too much to my liking.  

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Entirely plausible.  But not replacing him with someone the GM trusts in the ensuing 3 years and/or learning from their draft decisions is also concerning.

 

We'll see how this draft goes...I'm just seeing them settle for tweaks too much to my liking.  

 

Yea I don't disagree with you.

[BuffaloRebound]

Beane typically out-thinks himself and gets too cute trying to marry BPA and need in the first 2 rounds.  He’s more than offset that with the josh pick and that he typically nails the 4th through 6th rounds.  Trade up to 17 or 18 with one of our 2nd’s if one of your top 10-12 players is still left regardless of position. 

[Buffalo716]

17 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Cam played more Safety for us last season than he did CB. He's a DB swiss army knife. He was a primary backup at both Safety and Nickel. Lately if you were going to say what his "primary" role is based on usage (mainly to injuries to Rapp and Hamlin) - it would be Safety.

I believe he actually logged more snaps at corner last season... Started multiple games when Johnson went down 

 

Logged a lot of snaps at corner versus Detroit iirc

 

Edited 7 hours ago by Buffalo716

[alg]

On 4/1/2025 at 11:19 AM, Einstein's Dog said:

The problem with not drafting an RB is that it increases the impact of a Cook threat to "hold in" until week 11.

Which makes trading Cook before or during the draft a priority. In fact, this may make it a foregone conclusion. 

 

We're vulnerable to a holdout, and if we wait, we'll miss out on a deep RB class.

On 4/1/2025 at 12:16 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

I want Cook re-signed. However, the Bills signed Johnson for two years and have 3 more years on Davis.  My guess is Beane thinks they are in a reasonable position going forward. Also Cook would be foolish to “hold in” on a team fighting for the Super Bowl.  He’d lose the PR battle and it would hurt his reputation with other teams that might be interested in him as a FA.

 

Cook’s best revenge for not locking him up would be to have a great season and walk for a big $ contract.  My guess is he does have another big year the Bills tag him for year 5 and he walks in year 6.

These are all reasons to predict that Cook is officially trouble. He's as good as gone.

[Pete]

On 3/31/2025 at 9:18 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

The Bills have 3 picks in the top 62 (Picks 30, 56 and 62).  Then no picks until 109.  The Bills currently have 10 draft picks, including 4 from 169 to 177.  I don't see the Bills making all 10 picks.  I just don't see how you fit 10 guys on the active roster when arguably 49 roster spots are spoken for, although I can see Davidson (TE), Spector (LB), and White (QB) being replaced or simply waived.

 

The teams needs are plenty and varied and mostly on defense.  However, there are needs on offense as well.

 

Needs

1. CB - We need a starting CB and depth.  Our top pick is likely to be used here.

2. S - We have 4 safeties on the roster, but only one under contract beyond this season.  We need a potential starter for depth in 2025 and to replace Rapp in 2026.

3. DL - DaQuan Jones is in his last season as a Bill.  Carter, a 3rd rd pick last season, had an up and down rookie year, but this is a deep DL draft and currently suspended Ogunjobi is also only on a one year deal.  I suspect one of our top 3 picks will be utilized here.

4. DE - Bosa was signed for one season and Rousseau was extended.  I don't think Solomon is Bosa's replacement.  We need depth here as well, especially given Bosa's injury history.  This draft looks good for edge rushers even into the 3rd rd.  

5. LB - Doesn't seem like a screaming need, but Milano is on his last year and the depth behind Williams isn't great.  The team has also talk to Chris Paul a few times, so the position is clearly on their radar.  Need may depend on how Beane & Co feel about Andreessen and/or Ulofoshio.

6. WR - The Palmer signing erased the need for a boundary starter (& replaced Cooper) and Shenault probably inherits Hollins' role.  We still a deep threat and there are some intriguing guys like Felton and Williams in the middle rounds.

7. TE - The team let Morris walk and Knox maybe on his final season.  I can easily see a blocking TE drafted late.

8. RB - Today's news of tabled contract talks with Cook might make this a higher priority depending on how they feel about Johnson and Davis.  Deep RB draft as well. 

9. QB - Isn't it about time to draft and develop a backup for Josh?

 

If I had to predict this draft, Beane uses the 4 picks 169 to 177 to upgrade picks 109 and 132.  He ends up drafting  2 CBs, 1 S, a DL, a DE, a WR and a TE.   

 

 

 

1-CB I agree with

2- what? We have 4 decent Safetys, two with upside, and none of the 4 are getting cut. We have much more pressing needs,

3-DL I agree, and I even think DL is 1A

4-DE-a need, But WR is much bigger need.  2 at the very least

5-why?  Bernard and Milano are bad ass starters.  We need to find Dorian Williams playing time.  Eddie O, Baylon Spector, Buffalo Joe-  We have much greater needs than finding an upgrade for our 4th LB

6-WR.  Should be 1C IMO.  Who is our #1 WR(can separate, take top off, route tree)?  I like the Palmer signing, but IMO its a stretch to count on him to be our #1.  We have a real nice group of 4 WR, each brings a useful skillset.  A #1 WR would make our Josh and our offense unstoppable. 

7-TE and 8-RTB.  Two biggest needs outside DL/CB/WR/Edge.  Draft is loaded at RB.  Cook has his house on the market.  We need TE 3.

9-QB-Marino explains in detail that the most important aspect of backup QB to Josh is QB wisdom- a backup who can look at play, and give Josh good feed back.  It is more important the X and O stuff discussed with Josh, then QB ability.  Josh spends more time with backup QB, than most any other player

 

Id rather not trade up from 2, unless a special player is available.  Id like to see us to trade back, and up, and load up on top 100 players