Bills 2025 Draft strategy

[GASabresIUFan]

The Bills have 3 picks in the top 62 (Picks 30, 56 and 62).  Then no picks until 109.  The Bills currently have 10 draft picks, including 4 from 169 to 177.  I don't see the Bills making all 10 picks.  I just don't see how you fit 10 guys on the active roster when arguably 49 roster spots are spoken for, although I can see Davidson (TE), Spector (LB), and White (QB) being replaced or simply waived.

 

The teams needs are plenty and varied and mostly on defense.  However, there are needs on offense as well.

 

Needs

1. CB - We need a starting CB and depth.  Our top pick is likely to be used here.

2. S - We have 4 safeties on the roster, but only one under contract beyond this season.  We need a potential starter for depth in 2025 and to replace Rapp in 2026.

3. DL - DaQuan Jones is in his last season as a Bill.  Carter, a 3rd rd pick last season, had an up and down rookie year, but this is a deep DL draft and currently suspended Ogunjobi is also only on a one year deal.  I suspect one of our top 3 picks will be utilized here.

4. DE - Bosa was signed for one season and Rousseau was extended.  I don't think Solomon is Bosa's replacement.  We need depth here as well, especially given Bosa's injury history.  This draft looks good for edge rushers even into the 3rd rd.  

5. LB - Doesn't seem like a screaming need, but Milano is on his last year and the depth behind Williams isn't great.  The team has also talk to Chris Paul a few times, so the position is clearly on their radar.  Need may depend on how Beane & Co feel about Andreessen and/or Ulofoshio.

6. WR - The Palmer signing erased the need for a boundary starter (& replaced Cooper) and Shenault probably inherits Hollins' role.  We still a deep threat and there are some intriguing guys like Felton and Williams in the middle rounds.

7. TE - The team let Morris walk and Knox maybe on his final season.  I can easily see a blocking TE drafted late.

8. RB - Today's news of tabled contract talks with Cook might make this a higher priority depending on how they feel about Johnson and Davis.  Deep RB draft as well. 

9. QB - Isn't it about time to draft and develop a backup for Josh?

 

If I had to predict this draft, Beane uses the 4 picks 169 to 177 to upgrade picks 109 and 132.  He ends up drafting  2 CBs, 1 S, a DL, a DE, a WR and a TE.   

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 01:30 AM by GASabresIUFan

[BringBackFergy]

TBD says package all picks to move up for the 5th best WR. 
 

Beane and reasonable minds take BPA at each spot. 
 

It sucks picking late…but that says something about our team (success). 

[GunnerBill]

The issue with the "draft a running back" thinking is unless the trade Cook - which does not sound like it is their plan - there is no room for one on the 2025 roster. Cook, Davis and Johnson are all making it. They are not carrying those 3, Gilliam and a fourth out and out running back. 

 

I suspect they will just promote Davis next year to be the starter and draft one in next year's draft to be the 1-2 punch.

[GolfandBills]

I think they’ll move up in round two and give up a couple mid/late picks.  CB, DT, DE/WR in no particular order will be the first three picks.  They’ll come away with three of those 4 options imo.  

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

The issue with the "draft a running back" thinking is unless the trade Cook - which does not sound like it is their plan - there is no room for one on the 2025 roster. Cook, Davis and Johnson are all making it. They are not carrying those 3, Gilliam and a fourth out and out running back. 

 

I suspect they will just promote Davis next year to be the starter and draft one in next year's draft to be the 1-2 punch.

Probably a good guess.  I think they’ll try and get Cook back unless some desperate team with tons of cap space throws him the bag.  

Edited yesterday at 07:33 AM by GolfandBills

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The Bills have 3 picks in the top 62 (Picks 30, 56 and 62).  Then no picks until 109.  The Bills currently have 10 draft picks, including 4 from 169 to 177.  I don't see the Bills making all 10 picks.  I just don't see how you fit 10 guys on the active roster when arguably 49 roster spots are spoken for, although I can see Davidson (TE), Spector (LB), and White (QB) being replaced or simply waived.

 

The teams needs are plenty and varied and mostly on defense.  However, there are needs on offense as well.

 

Needs

1. CB - We need a starting CB and depth.  Our top pick is likely to be used here.

2. S - We have 4 safeties on the roster, but only one under contract beyond this season.  We need a potential starter for depth in 2025 and to replace Rapp in 2026.

3. DL - DaQuan Jones is in his last season as a Bill.  Carter, a 3rd rd pick last season, had an up and down rookie year, but this is a deep DL draft and currently suspended Ogunjobi is also only on a one year deal.  I suspect one of our top 3 picks will be utilized here.

4. DE - Bosa was signed for one season and Rousseau was extended.  I don't think Solomon is Bosa's replacement.  We need depth here as well, especially given Bosa's injury history.  This draft looks good for edge rushers even into the 3rd rd.  

5. LB - Doesn't seem like a screaming need, but Milano is on his last year and the depth behind Williams isn't great.  The team has also talk to Chris Paul a few times, so the position is clearly on their radar.  Need may depend on how Beane & Co feel about Andreessen and/or Ulofoshio.

6. WR - The Palmer signing erased the need for a boundary starter (& replaced Cooper) and Shenault probably inherits Hollins' role.  We still a deep threat and there are some intriguing guys like Felton and Williams in the middle rounds.

7. TE - The team let Morris walk and Knox maybe on his final season.  I can easily see a blocking TE drafted late.

8. RB - Today's news of tabled contract talks with Cook might make this a higher priority depending on how they feel about Johnson and Davis.  Deep RB draft as well. 

9. QB - Isn't it about time to draft and develop a backup for Josh?

 

If I had to predict this draft, Beane uses the 4 picks 169 to 177 to upgrade picks 109 and 132.  He ends up drafting  2 CBs, 1 S, a DL, a DE, a WR and a TE.   

 

I think DL is a much greater need than Safety. Specifically 1T. Daquan Jones shouldn't be on the team period imo. And right now, we have a grand total of 3 on the roster for Week 1 (Oliver, Jones, and Carter) and no one to even rotate Jones with. Who shouldn't be starting anymore.

 

I think the replacement for Rapp next year is already on the roster in the form of Bishop - who I'd expect may even start over Hamlin this season (though I think he's more naturally suited for Rapp's spot). Forrest may also be a diamond in the rough signing that I could see doing well here and being brought next season. On top of those 4, there's also Cam Lewis, who we also play at Safety (while also serving as an emergency CB). Right now, we have every Safety we had on the Roster last season, plus Forrest.

 

I also disagree with LB before WR. While I could see them wanting to upgrade from Buffalo Joe, like Safety, between Milano, Bernard, Williams, Olofoshio, Andreesen, and Spector - we have a full stack and everyone from last season returning. And no one beyond Andreesen or Spector will be released and good chance we only keep 5.

 

WR, however, we're still missing one. We lost Hollins and Cooper and just brought in Palmer (Shenault is a camp body). Palmer *could* become more with Josh. But to date, he hasn't shown to be a big difference maker. Right now, I see us basically being in the same position we were last season when we had to make a Trade bc it wasn't enough. We're 100% Drafting at least 1 WR and with the core being underwhelming, it may be in the first 3 picks.

 

I also agree with @GunnerBill that this won't be the year we Draft a RB. If we do, it would be one of our last picks just to bring to Camp and maybe stash on the PS. Between Cook, Davis, and Johnson all guaranteed to be here - there's no room on the 53.

 

Another position I could see is Drafting late on Day 3 is a Punter. With Camarda and now Robbins, they may be set. But I could see a scenario where if there was a guy they liked, they'd take him and cut one of those guys. Neither guy is a lock.

Edited yesterday at 08:06 AM by BillsFanForever19

[eball]

I’m gonna take a wild guess that the Bills wind up with only 7 or 8 draft selections after Beane wheels and deals to move up in a couple of spots.

 

DB, DL, and WR are no-brainer selections.  Beane always takes a mid-to-late round LB or OL, and I see a late round P.

 

2 DL

2 DB

1 WR

1 LB

1 OL

1 P

 

That’s my stab in the dark.

 

 

Edited yesterday at 08:03 AM by eball

[ColoradoBills]

1.  DT/CB

2. CB/DT

3. WR

4. DL (DE or DT BPA)

5. S

6. TE

7. BPA - CB/LB/RB/STs

8. BPA - CB/LB/RB/STs

2 Picks traded.

 

This is my priority list.  Could vary in which round these priorities are taken depending on the board.

Notes:

1.  I added RB despite the numbers issue.  They would find a way to IR (hide) someone if needed.  RB taken only IF too good to pass up.

2.  Take the TE IF too good to pass on.  Needs to have good blocking skills.  Going to need one next year and TEs take a while to acclimate.

[GASabresIUFan]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

WR, however, we're still missing one. We lost Hollins and Cooper and just brought in Palmer (Shenault is a camp body). Palmer *could* become more with Josh. But to date, he hasn't shown to be a big difference maker. Right now, I see us basically being in the same position we were last season when we had to make a Trade bc it wasn't enough. We're 100% Drafting at least 1 WR and with the core being underwhelming, it may be in the first 3 picks.

 
The problem is the Bills typically only carry 5 WRs.  4 slots are spoken for and Shenault, like it or not, has the inside track at the KR duties under the newly approved kick off rules.  

 

They also have Shavers, who they like, as depth already in the system.  
 

Add that this is a weak WR class and the needs on defense are a greater priority.

 

As I wrote in the OP, I think they should take a flyer on one of late speed receivers, but I think the more likely scenario is that they table WR until next season when they can move on from Samuel. 
 

By the way, I think all the LBs after Williams, Bernard and Milano are expendable.  Spector is easily cut and honestly isn’t very good.  Buffalo Joe is a special teams player and Ulofoshio didn’t show really anything as a rookie.  There is little to no cap impact to cutting any of the 3.  We are going to need a 4th LB who can make plays and I don’t see that guy on the roster right now.

Edited 19 hours ago by GASabresIUFan

[Nephilim17]

My hope:
1. DT

2. Edge

3. CB2

4. Speed WR

 

The rest is depth and we can find cheap depth in unsigned guys.

[Einstein's Dog]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The issue with the "draft a running back" thinking is unless the trade Cook - which does not sound like it is their plan - there is no room for one on the 2025 roster. Cook, Davis and Johnson are all making it. They are not carrying those 3, Gilliam and a fourth out and out running back. 

 

I suspect they will just promote Davis next year to be the starter and draft one in next year's draft to be the 1-2 punch.

The problem with not drafting an RB is that it increases the impact of a Cook threat to "hold in" until week 11.

[ColoradoBills]

43 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 
The problem is the Bills typically only carry 5 WRs.  4 slots are spoken for and Shenault, like it not, has the inside track at the KR duties under the newly approved kick off rules.  

 

They also have Shavers, who they like, as depth already in the system.  
 

Add that this is a weak WR class and the needs on defense are a greater priority.

 

As I wrote in the OP, I think they should take a flyer on one of late speed receivers, but I think the more likely scenario is that they table WR until next season when they can move on from Samuel. 
 

By the way, I think all the LBs after Williams, Bernard and Milano are expendable.  Spector is easily cut and honestly isn’t very good.  Buffalo Joe is a special teams player and Ulofoshio didn’t show really anything as a rookie.  There is little to no cap impact to cutting any of the 3.  We are going to need a 4 LB who can make plays and I don’t see that guy on the roster right now.

 

Yes, typically they carry 5 WRs.  The ST players add a slot and if Shenault is that guy 6 WRs is not out of the question.

The WRs (and TEs for that matter) have had a pretty dismal injury record.  It may be good to hedge for that.

As for Shavers, he would be a camp surprise to make the 53.  I see him destined for the PS again (which is a good depth plan).

 

Lots of years the Bills carried 10 OL.  They have a strong 9 so there could be another open spot for the O.

QB-2

RB/FB-4

WR-6

TE-3

OL-9

24-Total Offense

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The problem with not drafting an RB is that it increases the impact of a Cook threat to "hold in" until week 11.

I want Cook re-signed. However, the Bills signed Johnson for two years and have 3 more years on Davis.  My guess is Beane thinks they are in a reasonable position going forward. Also Cook would be foolish to “hold in” on a team fighting for the Super Bowl.  He’d lose the PR battle and it would hurt his reputation with other teams that might be interested in him as a FA.

 

Cook’s best revenge for not locking him up would be to have a great season and walk for a big $ contract.  My guess is he does have another big year the Bills tag him for year 5 and he walks in year 6.

Edited 19 hours ago by GASabresIUFan

[Thurman#1]

While I think we do move up using some of the later picks, there's some things people are not saying about the fact that we've got a lot of picks and fairly little roster space.

 

First, plenty of those guys who don't make the roster might easily make the practice squad. Not necessarily all. But generally almost all. When fifth rounders are cut, they might more easily be picked up elsewhere. But not necessarily.

 

More, there's an advantage to using a lot of picks even when there's not enough room. Let's say all of the picks from the top four rounds make the roster, and only two more will be able to do so. So in this case Beane has kept all ten of his picks. Hell, maybe he even traded back one of  the fifths and got an extra 7th, leaving 11 total picks.

 

Having 11 picks give you one simple, factual advantage. You get more guys to look at. So say that two of the 5ths don't make the team. But the 7th does. It happens. Sometimes those 7ths, as do UDFAs, are better than expected. When you have more picks, you have more chances to find a later guy who's a lot better than his draft spot says.

 

Again, I guess we will trade up a bit here and there. But 6ths and 7ths aren't nothing, even though we tend to talk about them as if they are in situations like this. They're a chance.

 

 

 

Anyway, OP, I think you're over-rating S as a need. I don't think it's top three. Maybe 4 or 5 would be my guess. Other than that I think you're totally reasonable.

 

Oh, and the odds of Cook holding out or holding in or whatever ... THIS YEAR? Wildly unlikely. It's really uncommon after the third, though we do get some posturing sometimes. If they tag him next year, though, now at that point it becomes a lot more possible, but he's not going to do anything this year.

 

 

Edited 18 hours ago by Thurman#1

[Bangarang]

15 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

6. WR - The Palmer signing erased the need for a boundary starter (& replaced Cooper) and Shenault probably inherits Hollins' role.  We still a deep threat and there are some intriguing guys like Felton and Williams in the middle rounds.

 

Palmer shouldn't have erased anything tbh. He's a decent player but he's not someone I look at and think "Yeah, we're good now that we have him". And Shenault is simply not good so I certainly hope he isn't as involved in the offense as Hollins was. Aside from safety, our WR room is one of the weakest on the team still. 

 

Maybe the plan is to have another season of historically low turnovers and hope Josh wins another MVP because of the talent around him?  

[khlax3]

Unless there is a guy they love I think they are done at Saftey. They have 5 guys already.

 

Rapp

Bishop

Hamlin

Lewis

Forrest 

 

at corner you have:

Benford 

johnson

jackson

Ingraham 

coddington

 

It’s doubtful they keep more than 11 in the secondary. One early CB pick and then a later pick at CB to compete with Ingram for the last spot

[BuffaloRebound]

I think Beane kills the 4th, 5th, and 6th rounds.  Let him cook with those 7 picks and fill the roster with good depth and potential starters.   To me, picks 30, 56, and 62 needs to produce 1 or 2 studs regardless of position.  Go up to the teens and get a dude like Jihaad Campbell.  We need studs regardless of position.  Beane tends to try a little too hard to marry need and BPA with his 1st and 2nd round picks.  

[Warriorspikes51]

 

BIG BIG BIGGER

 

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

2-3 DT  

Grant, Harmon, Nolen, Collins, Caldwell are targets. Ideally want a DT in the 1st

(2 should both be by round 4, then use a 6th on someone to compete with Carter)

 

1-2 CB  

2nd Round + 5th Round seems likely IMO

 

1-2 Edge  

Landon Jackson in the 2nd? 

 

1-2 WR  

We need Speed. Get Thornton. Bond off-field concerns may rule us out.  Not against taking Matthew Golden I suppose

 

1 S 

4th Round seems likely 

 

 

Primary Target:  Bigger & Powerful IDL

Ideal Combos: 

Grant & Collins - Transforms entire D

Harmon & Caldwell

 

Late Round Bonus:  Zeek Biggers

Edited 17 hours ago by Warriorspikes51

[juno999]

4 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

The problem with not drafting an RB is that it increases the impact of a Cook threat to "hold in" until week 11.

I agree.  The Bills can’t run the risk of Cook holding out in a season with so much on the line.  How many times have we seen a player hold out and then come back only to look out of shape and subpar.  Draft a RB is the right play and provides insurance.  As someone stated above you can stash a guy on IR if you have too many.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I think DL is a much greater need than Safety. Specifically 1T. Daquan Jones shouldn't be on the team period imo. And right now, we have a grand total of 3 on the roster for Week 1 (Oliver, Jones, and Carter) and no one to even rotate Jones with. Who shouldn't be starting anymore.

 

I think the replacement for Rapp next year is already on the roster in the form of Bishop - who I'd expect may even start over Hamlin this season (though I think he's more naturally suited for Rapp's spot). Forrest may also be a diamond in the rough signing that I could see doing well here and being brought next season. On top of those 4, there's also Cam Lewis, who we also play at Safety (while also serving as an emergency CB). Right now, we have every Safety we had on the Roster last season, plus Forrest.

 

I also disagree with LB before WR. While I could see them wanting to upgrade from Buffalo Joe, like Safety, between Milano, Bernard, Williams, Olofoshio, Andreesen, and Spector - we have a full stack and everyone from last season returning. And no one beyond Andreesen or Spector will be released and good chance we only keep 5.

 

WR, however, we're still missing one. We lost Hollins and Cooper and just brought in Palmer (Shenault is a camp body). Palmer *could* become more with Josh. But to date, he hasn't shown to be a big difference maker. Right now, I see us basically being in the same position we were last season when we had to make a Trade bc it wasn't enough. We're 100% Drafting at least 1 WR and with the core being underwhelming, it may be in the first 3 picks.

 

I also agree with @GunnerBill that this won't be the year we Draft a RB. If we do, it would be one of our last picks just to bring to Camp and maybe stash on the PS. Between Cook, Davis, and Johnson all guaranteed to be here - there's no room on the 53.

 

Another position I could see is Drafting late on Day 3 is a Punter. With Camarda and now Robbins, they may be set. But I could see a scenario where if there was a guy they liked, they'd take him and cut one of those guys. Neither guy is a lock.

 

If Grant is still available in mid 20's could see Beane moving up for him.  From what I've read, he's the one DT who is actually a 3 down player.  Others are either good against the run or good against the pass, but not both.  I've seen different mocks having him gone anywhere from around 12 to being there at 30