Being a top 3 team in scoring. Does it matter how we do it?

[sven233]

No....it doesn't necessarily matter. 

 

What matters is that you are capable of doing it in the easiest way possible.  Last year after the first few weeks of the season and the "Everybody Eats" offense got put on film and teams figured out that our offense couldn't beat anyone down the field, it got a lot tougher to score for a bit because teams were sneaking their safeties up and making it harder on offense to move the ball consistently.  Hence the reason we had to bring in Cooper.

 

Now, maybe the Cooper signing didn't work out entirely as planned, but early on, he made a couple of plays down the field and that loosened things up a bit and the offense got back on track.  But now he's gone and we're back in the same situation we were last last season.  A bunch of guys with no real star power and no game breaking speed.  I fear that if we go into the season again without that speed and someone to threaten teams down the field, we will end up in the same spot with teams stacking the box and making the short to intermediate routes that much tougher to complete. 

 

If you go back and look at last year, the only big plays we really made were off script superhero stuff from Allen.  You could count on one hand how many deep shots were actually completed on script within the design of the play.  In fact, you may not need all of your fingers to count them.

 

So, no, it doesn't matter how you do it.  But you have to have the capability to do it.  And, in my opinion, the best way to help that happen is to make sure defense respect the deep part of the field.  We don't have anyone on the roster that any team will feel like they have to back off of and that does make me wonder if we will struggle to score consistently again, especially with an entire year's worth of our offense on film.

 

Finally, while scoring is important for sure.....preventing playoff teams from rolling over your own defense and forcing us to score to much to have a chance to win is a huge problem as well.  It's nice to have the ability to score 30+ a game, but when you are forced to do it week in and week out in the Playoffs because your defense can't stop real offenses, it changes the dynamic.  So, I guess in the end what I am saying is we still need at least 1 more WR with speed, explosion, and the ability to beat man coverage.  Find that and then load up on defense with the rest of our assets and let's kick the ball off!

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Palmer can do something we haven't had since prime Diggs and that is separate.  We need to add one more guy who can do that and we are good on offense.

I'm fine with the Palmer signing. I think he raises the floor for boundary receiver. I'm not convinced he's much more than adequate, though one can always hope for more. Unfortunately, I'm not sure there is anyone in the draft who even has the capacity to really grow into that position. The folks who are more expert than I have been poking holes in all the options I've been entertaining.

 

Nonetheless, my feeling on offense is, yes, they should add someone with potential at WR, and I wouldn't be surprised if they add a guard maybe a bit earlier than folks expect. 

[Kornfed]

T Shavers was close to making the team last year. We may be sleeping on him. Regardless,    All the mind set lacking “deep speed” Is the same BS we heard last year.  Remember Jerry Rice speed. Not the fastest first steps but deceptive smooth stride …. We’ll get deep don’t worry. 

[Doc Brown]

Correct me if I'm wrong but the disparity between points scored (2nd) and yards gained (10th) on offense has a lot to do with turnover differential.  On offense we were tied with the 2019 Saints with the fewest turnovers of all time with only eight.  We didn't even turn it over in the three playoff games. Only two fumbles lost is absolutely bonkers especially considering one of them was on a trick play.  There's no way the offense is that clean with turnovers again and if they don't regress to the mean it would be shocking.  Combine that with a perfectly healthy o-line (minus one game?) is also extremely likely not to happen again.  The defense forced 31 turnovers which was third in the league.  I'm just going to assume we regress slightly in that area because creating turnovers has always been a strong suit of McDermott's defense.

 

Defense should be the focus of the draft but assuming this offense is going to repeat last year's scoring production if we just run it back while making some minor moves is highly unlikely.  If we take a WR that falls in any of our three picks in the first two rounds I'd be fine with it.

Edited Saturday at 06:26 AM by Doc Brown

[FireChans]

6 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

You could put JaMarr Chase on this offense and he likely would get 1000+ yards, but what will likely mean overall is the yest of the offense will end up with maybe 600 to 800 total yards  less.  In Fantasy, adding Chase adds 1000 yards, but sorry not here!

Josh Allen threw the ball almost 100 times fewer than he did in 2020, and almost 160 times fewer than 2021. He had around 800 less passing yards than those two seasons. 
 

The Bills offense was 10th in yards in 2024, after being 4rh, 2nd, 5th, and 2nd. 

So no, I don’t think adding Jamar Chase brings the offense down 800 yards less. That’s actually nuts.

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, Success said:

Allen can score w/ anyone.  We DO NOT need to worry much about offense. I'd be happy w/ a receiver in the early rounds, but it's not dire.

 

Defense, defense, defense.  We lose in the playoffs because or our DEFENSE.  It drives me bananas.

 

We need to focus there - both personnel, and scheme. 

 

Yep.  This team has failed on defense as good as it was at times in the past.  The Jim’s and Joes, not the coaches.  The problem is unless we seriously give up draft capital, we always draft so late as we keep winning as much as the last few years.

[uticaclub]

9 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

The last two years, the defense failed and the offense did not come through in the crucial moments at the end of games.

Both are important, and both need to be addressed. 

The offense had scores 30+ each game. That should be enough to win playoff games. The offense has always done its part and the defense always fails

[Dr. Who]

53 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

The offense had scores 30+ each game. That should be enough to win playoff games. The offense has always done its part and the defense always fails

Technically, it wasn't 30+ against the Chiefs in 2025, but "should have been enough" is what you say when your team has the game on the line with the ball in its hands and fails at the end. 

 

And it's not a zero sum game where addressing WR means not addressing DL, CB, S.

[Chandler#81]

I don’t think we can effectively replicate last year’s offense. Of course, Mack is gone but we’ll be facing much more dime defense and too much of our success is based on Josh being total magic. I’d love it! But everyone has a year to study it and NE* & KC figured a lot out about it.

[GunnerBill]

And yet when Josh has had the ball with a chance to win the in the playoffs the past two years he hasn't had that guy to make a play for him. I'm sure Bills would be top 5 or 6 in scoring next year even if they did nothing more on offense, so long as Josh is healthy. But am I sure that it will be any different in the post season in the clutch when we need a guy to step up and make a play? No.

[Ga boy]

8 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

With all the advanced stats, I still have seen nothing that separates on schedule and off schedule plays. I wouldn’t be surprised if we are outside the top 6 or 7 in on schedule plays. Which in my opinion is a lot more indicative of the talent as a whole. 

I believe that the off script plays are due to the lack of separation.  After 3 seconds, the receivers improvise instead of running the designed routes.  No other QB can make chicken salad out of chicken poo like JA17.  We can hope Shakir, Coleman, Palmer and Kincaid can get a step more often, but we need a 4.3 guy who draws attention.  I think our offense can be better.  The 1st half in many games were painful.  We need to be able to score from the get go, and this would help our D tee off.

[Dr. Who]

23 minutes ago, Ga boy said:

I believe that the off script plays are due to the lack of separation.  After 3 seconds, the receivers improvise instead of running the designed routes.  No other QB can make chicken salad out of chicken poo like JA17.  We can hope Shakir, Coleman, Palmer and Kincaid can get a step more often, but we need a 4.3 guy who draws attention.  I think our offense can be better.  The 1st half in many games were painful.  We need to be able to score from the get go, and this would help our D tee off.

It's just complete lack of contextual awareness that leads folks to simply look at points scored as a sufficient metric.

Edited Saturday at 12:59 PM by Dr. Who

[FireChans]

51 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Technically, it wasn't 30+ against the Chiefs in 2025, but "should have been enough" is what you say when your team has the game on the line with the ball in its hands and fails at the end. 

 

And it's not a zero sum game where addressing WR means not addressing DL, CB, S.

Yes.

 

Some folks really try to make this “we couldn’t have upgraded at WR, we need to spend another 5th round pick on CB”

 

The bottom line is heading into FA, there were 4 major difference makers rumoured to be available. Garrett, Metcalf, Higgins and Hendrickson. 
 

we had lots of debates over who was a better pick, offense vs defense etc. Which is totally fine because there is opportunity cost.

 

But now we know that only 1 was available, and he was available for a second round pick.

 

I can accept “I would rather give up 2 1sts for Garrett than 1 2nd for DK.”

 

I cannot accept “I would rather draft DT8 or CB7 or S4 with that second round pick instead of having DK.” Can’t do it. Won’t do it.

 

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yes.

 

Some folks really try to make this “we couldn’t have upgraded at WR, we need to spend another 5th round pick on CB”

 

The bottom line is heading into FA, there were 4 major difference makers rumoured to be available. Garrett, Metcalf, Higgins and Hendrickson. 
 

we had lots of debates over who was a better pick, offense vs defense etc. Which is totally fine because there is opportunity cost.

 

But now we know that only 1 was available, and he was available for a second round pick.

 

I can accept “I would rather give up 2 1sts for Garrett than 1 2nd for DK.”

 

I cannot accept “I would rather draft DT8 or CB7 or S4 with that second round pick instead of having DK.” Can’t do it. Won’t do it.

 

So, I was going to rant about this, but didn't really have the energy. And for sure, being proactive here, they could have fit him under the cap. Exasperating.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

I don’t think we can effectively replicate last year’s offense. Of course, Mack is gone but we’ll be facing much more dime defense and too much of our success is based on Josh being total magic. I’d love it! But everyone has a year to study it and NE* & KC figured a lot out about it.

 

What worries me is coming back toward a more normal level of turnovers. If we are closer to average there, that is taking some points off the board.  

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

And yet when Josh has had the ball with a chance to win the in the playoffs the past two years he hasn't had that guy to make a play for him. I'm sure Bills would be top 5 or 6 in scoring next year even if they did nothing more on offense, so long as Josh is healthy. But am I sure that it will be any different in the post season in the clutch when we need a guy to step up and make a play? No.

This!

 

it’s about how easy / efficient an offense makes it to score, we pretty much don’t have a vertical threat that can get open and catch the ball, why Beane doesn’t see this is quite frustrating, jmo. 

[Maine-iac]

What's do you do to guarantee that something changes?  The front office has made all the moves you could ask for.  They brought in Diggs.  They drafted Kincaid and Coleman both first picks in their draft years.  Then they went out and traded for Cooper.  Diggs needed to make that catch.  Kincaid needed to make that catch.  Bass needed to make that kick.  Offense has been a story of good games and singular failures at key times.  All of the belly aching for a deep threat seems to be oblivious to the fact that teams plays us in cover 2 most of the time (so no one is getting deep) and Josh has a fairly dubious record on connecting on deep shots.  He can throw it 30 yards across the field running out of bounds the wrong way but get a guy 5 yards behind the defense 40 yards down the field and Josh will put it short or out of bounds half the time.  Not that we don't need one but a speed guy or a vertical threat is not the silver bullet everyone thinks it is.  The offense needs to keep doing what it's been doing.  Get better if it can but mostly close out games in the playoffs and that's not any one player.  We already have players that can do it.  They just haven't done it.  

[artmalibu]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Josh Allen threw the ball almost 100 times fewer than he did in 2020, and almost 160 times fewer than 2021. He had around 800 less passing yards than those two seasons. 
 

The Bills offense was 10th in yards in 2024, after being 4rh, 2nd, 5th, and 2nd. 

So no, I don’t think adding Jamar Chase brings the offense down 800 yards less. That’s actually nuts.

 

I think you missed the point.  Chase would get a lot of yards but that would mean less targets and yards for the other players.  In other words Chase would would get 1000 + yards but the team would not have a total of 1000+ more yards.

[Dr. Who]

8 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

What's do you do to guarantee that something changes?  The front office has made all the moves you could ask for.  They brought in Diggs.  They drafted Kincaid and Coleman both first picks in their draft years.  Then they went out and traded for Cooper.  Diggs needed to make that catch.  Kincaid needed to make that catch.  Bass needed to make that kick.  Offense has been a story of good games and singular failures at key times.  All of the belly aching for a deep threat seems to be oblivious to the fact that teams plays us in cover 2 most of the time (so no one is getting deep) and Josh has a fairly dubious record on connecting on deep shots.  He can throw it 30 yards across the field running out of bounds the wrong way but get a guy 5 yards behind the defense 40 yards down the field and Josh will put it short or out of bounds half the time.  Not that we don't need one but a speed guy or a vertical threat is not the silver bullet everyone thinks it is.  The offense needs to keep doing what it's been doing.  Get better if it can but mostly close out games in the playoffs and that's not any one player.  We already have players that can do it.  They just haven't done it.  

Pedantic point. Break long passages into a few shorter paragraphs for greater readability.

 

More substantial point: I agree with many of your observations, but not your conclusions. Minor disagreement: Coleman is an early second pick. Beane punted. He could have traded up for Brian Thomas, Jr., for instance, a receiver that doesn't have trouble getting separation. Larger disagreement: But actually, yes, we agree the pass receivers need to make those catches. They haven't. They don't. Beyond skill set, we need one or two more clutch, elite players on both sides of the ball. 

 

Beane has a recipe, and he plays it safe more often than not. The result has been good teams with solid depth that lack the plus players. It matches up with our generally mediocre playoff performance.

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

The top 3 stuff doesn't matter, what matters is that you strive to get better.  The easiest way for the offense to get better is/was improving at WR.  The TEs are good to excellent, the RB room is excellent (although I can see that slipping w the Cook situation and would not blame Beane), and the OL is excellent and is QB.

 

But the WR room looks weak again.  And like many I still wish the move had been made for DK.  Looking forward I hope they either add a decent draft pick at WR or get A Cooper back at the price they have in mind.