It's Obvious Now - He Wants a Recession

[Andy1]

And now even US oil executives have no faith in Trumps tariff policies. If only the Republican Party would speak the truth rather than follow Trump over the cliff like blind sheep. What a mess.
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-oil-executives-see-disaster-192149353.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACNDCeAFT7DViAlLezMHKn1dG9JLA-6zNxuEy42Yp5byHznAVLdS87Ml4Q0TsFmFB9GZ1TVTKil5cJPXlxHeoS1pv5em6WbitQ1WWYtXP5b_wghBryIJwGCoDxqgTMCB8D0DnDBqy1cmF0DV8JwWydxmVCH4UWmroir7XOEGpFWl

[All_Pro_Bills]

12 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

Please tell us what you have your 401k and IRA's in...sounds like treasuries might be your thing.  boring but entirely predictable.  kinda like the maga's here...

Not treasuries. Energy stocks like CNQ, SU, XOM, some funds, recently PR. Gold miners like AEM. NEM, GDX, NGD. Royalty streamers WPM, RGLD, OR. Utilities fund. Hard asset funds. Solid dividend payers. Growth and income funds. Emerging market funds. And sure some SP500 and NASDAQ exposure. Raised cash to about 20% to take advantage of opportunities like Friday. 

The theme, higher and longer inflation is here to stay. We went through a 40+ year deflation phase, that's over.  The reverse of that started in earnest in 2021. The street with few exceptions hasn't caught on yet. They think it's transitory. It's not. It's permanent. 

Edited Sunday at 11:37 AM by All_Pro_Bills

[Joe Ferguson forever]

2 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Not treasuries. Energy stocks like CNQ, SU, XOM, some funds, recently PR. Gold miners like AEM. NEM, GDX, NGD. Royalty streamers WPM, RGLD, OR. Utilities fund. Hard asset funds. Solid dividend payers. Growth and income funds. Emerging market funds. And sure some SP500 and NASDAQ exposure. Raised cash to about 20% to take advantage of opportunities like Friday. 

The theme, higher and longer inflation is here to stay. We went through a 40+ year deflation phase, that's over.  The reverse of that started in earnest in 2021. The street with few exceptions hasn't caught on yet. They think it's transitory. It's not. It's permanent. 

You have a much riskier portfolio than me.   This has the potential to hurt you deep and already has made a dent. Your predictions don’t match your risk tolerance. 

Edited Sunday at 01:51 PM by Joe Ferguson forever

[Joe Ferguson forever]

11 hours ago, dgrochester55 said:

Maybe try something other than frivolous abuse of the court system 

Are you kidding. Trump is playing the courts like a cheap violin. Frivolous cases are lined up for SCOTUS. He knows many of his executive orders and DOGE actions are unconstitutional.  Tying up the courts is his strategy. 

[Buffarukus]

11 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

It’s a global economy with manufacturing competitors paying subsistence wages. In many countries workers make 5k per year. It’s tough if not impossible to make up for a 10 fold difference in labor costs with tariffs. It’s not gonna work. 
 

the market is heavily influenced by confidence. There’s not much of that surrounding trump. I hope that changes. 

 

So if tariff is too volatile whats the solution? Why do we just accept things like Chinese slave labor and censorship as a normalized "tariff" companies must abide by or other countries protecting their domestic industry against outside markets but we are just suppose to offer free trade to all as is? The only difference is the normalization. Any change results in uncertainty, so i just hope any waves settle over time. People will always scream doom and gloom about them as they sway the boat but they are required to turn it around if you have been gently floating towards a waterfall.

[JFKjr]

23 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

we were at a dinner party last night with folks near or in retirement.  some had kids who played college sports but I don't believe any played lacrosse - more a baseball/football crowd.  the anger that was once only directed at trump and maga leaders is now directed at all trump voters.  they're the enablers.  the divide and anger has never been higher.  

This thread is interesting in that the maga's here aren't bothered by the market dropping like a stone.  that might well be due to the amount of their hard earned money at risk from trump's policies.  Perhaps they feel they're owning the libs in this way.  but the wealth divide isn't shrinking significantly.  everyone is getting poorer or at least, less wealthy.  One of the attendees last nite has recently been approached about running for office.  he never considered it before but is now.  2 years from now might be a really good time to run for congress.

 

This is a GREAT visual of you and your friends coping and seething. 

 

This is exactly how I picture brainwashed white liberals across America.

 

I mean, I get it, you think you're smarter than those who voted for Trump. You all should "run for office" or something.

 

And explain to everyone how economics works while forgetting to even mention it as a significant campaign issue. 

 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

11 minutes ago, Buffarukus said:

 

So if tariff is too volatile whats the solution? Why do we just accept things like Chinese slave labor and censorship as a normalized "tariff" companies must abide by or other countries protecting their domestic industry against outside markets but we are just suppose to offer free trade to all as is? The only difference is the normalization. Any change results in uncertainty, so i just hope any waves settle over time. People will always scream doom and gloom about them as they sway the boat but they are required to turn it around if you have been gently floating towards a waterfall.

tariffs only increase the cost of goods to us.  we can't compete with slave labor so we must compete in other ways.  perhaps that's why trump is all about stealing land with valuable resources.  when that fails, we need to invest heavily in cutting edge tech and services while preparing a unsurpassed work force.  Not easy, but a lot less unsettling than the current approach.  which, btw, has an ending no one can predict.

Edited Sunday at 03:02 PM by Joe Ferguson forever

[nedboy7]

10 hours ago, Andy1 said:

And now even US oil executives have no faith in Trumps tariff policies. If only the Republican Party would speak the truth rather than follow Trump over the cliff like blind sheep. What a mess.
 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-oil-executives-see-disaster-192149353.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAACNDCeAFT7DViAlLezMHKn1dG9JLA-6zNxuEy42Yp5byHznAVLdS87Ml4Q0TsFmFB9GZ1TVTKil5cJPXlxHeoS1pv5em6WbitQ1WWYtXP5b_wghBryIJwGCoDxqgTMCB8D0DnDBqy1cmF0DV8JwWydxmVCH4UWmroir7XOEGpFWl

Stupid is hard to reason with.  Dear leader can’t do wrong cause upsetting liberals is good. And now a liberal is anyone who doesn’t worship dear leader. 

[JFKjr]

3 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

Stupid is hard to reason with.  Dear leader can’t do wrong cause upsetting liberals is good. And now a liberal is anyone who doesn’t worship dear leader. 

 

What do you have against "China?"

 

   

[Buffarukus]

3 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

tariffs only increase the cost of goods to us.  we can't compete with slave labor so we must compete in other ways.  perhaps that's why trump is all about stealing land with valuable resources.  when that fails, we need to invest heavily in cutting edge tech and services while preparing a unsurpassed work force.  Not easy, but a lot less unsettling than the current approach.  which, btw, has an ending no one can predict.

 

Well i exampled how this is the exact same as other countries who tariff us. This is a tax on their people that conviently results in our industries having a hard time selling over their domestic industries. How is being reciprocal in action considered such a detrement over what they already do besides just polical bias and nervousness of markets? That nervousness comes from ANY changes introduced and if noone can pridict the outcome then we also cant predict the impact being positive or negative. My position is any change is worth it as we are obviously loosing anyways. So why so much resistance to attempt to turn things around. Hope for the best and try your best to buy american just like foriegn markets are reacting and lets see where the dust settles. Deals can evolve so this stern stance isnt as detrimental as some would convey.

 

As for your solution. Seems extremely short term and standard to what has always been. New tech is great and will give us a boost but will end up becoming watered down and stolen or companies will just outsource labor after using our innovation same as always. Our "unsurpassed" workers will do specialized work here and the rest will be done dirt cheap outside to maximize profits and slap a false "made" in america badge. If i had a idea on how to prevent this long term it would be exactly the same. Major surcharge to be in our huge spend happy american market that would cut or eliminate profits from slave labor making companies rethink the workforce and corporate operation options they have. 

 

 

 

Edited Sunday at 06:03 PM by Buffarukus

[Joe Ferguson forever]

As I said, it's about labor costs.  That issue will not change with tariffs.  Prices will go up however.  investments will go down or at least growth will slow.  And some small and large biz will go belly up.  Will we come out better off overall?  Will unskilled jobs increase and compensation for them increase?   I don't see how nor do many economists but trump seems confident.  I don't find that the least bit reassuring.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/04/01/donald-trump-trade-war-already-backfiring-corporate-america/

 

But Trump’s hope of a low-skilled jobs boom is doomed. Johnson has already tried hard to manufacture his goods in America.

“I would love to have my product made in the USA. That would be really great to have on my website,” says Johnson.

“So I’ve tried a lot of places. All the way from an individual guy where he made things in his shed at the back to several larger companies. I once flew to Wisconsin to meet with a company there. But mostly they just can’t deliver.

“I cannot get my product in America in the quantities that I want to sell it. I’ve tried numerous places, they’re extremely slow. I would just be out of stock constantly.”

The fundamental problem is the high cost of labour in America. US factories will have five or six employees on the factory floor, says Johnson. In Asia, there will be 100, plus another 30 in an office answering emails.

 

Just one tidbit from the article.  the remainder is equally depressing.

Edited 4 hours ago by Joe Ferguson forever

[Joe Ferguson forever]

On 3/30/2025 at 12:22 PM, Buffarukus said:

 

Well i exampled how this is the exact same as other countries who tariff us. This is a tax on their people that conviently results in our industries having a hard time selling over their domestic industries. How is being reciprocal in action considered such a detrement over what they already do besides just polical bias and nervousness of markets? That nervousness comes from ANY changes introduced and if noone can pridict the outcome then we also cant predict the impact being positive or negative. My position is any change is worth it as we are obviously loosing anyways. So why so much resistance to attempt to turn things around. Hope for the best and try your best to buy american just like foriegn markets are reacting and lets see where the dust settles. Deals can evolve so this stern stance isnt as detrimental as some would convey.

 

As for your solution. Seems extremely short term and standard to what has always been. New tech is great and will give us a boost but will end up becoming watered down and stolen or companies will just outsource labor after using our innovation same as always. Our "unsurpassed" workers will do specialized work here and the rest will be done dirt cheap outside to maximize profits and slap a false "made" in america badge. If i had a idea on how to prevent this long term it would be exactly the same. Major surcharge to be in our huge spend happy american market that would cut or eliminate profits from slave labor making companies rethink the workforce and corporate operation options they have. 

 

 

 

We live in a global economy.  We can't survive as an island.  No one outside the US is going to buy American manufactured goods after our competitors apply tariffs to goods hat are already relatively expensive due to expensive labor.  The US market alone is not big enough to sustain, much less grow, many businesses.

[All_Pro_Bills]

21 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

We live in a global economy.  We can't survive as an island.  No one outside the US is going to buy American manufactured goods after our competitors apply tariffs to goods hat are already relatively expensive due to expensive labor.  The US market alone is not big enough to sustain, much less grow, many businesses.

 I agree. So where does that leave us as a nation? We consume more than we produce incurring big trade deficits year after year. Our businesses are not cost competitive as other nations have cheaper labor and business costs aided by things such as weaker environmental and work safety rules. One conclusion is eventually there needs to be an adjustment in our overall standard of living. A downward adjustment to re-balance the economic and business realities of global trade..

[Joe Ferguson forever]

1 minute ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

 I agree. So where does that leave us as a nation? We consume more than we produce incurring big trade deficits year after year. Our businesses are not cost competitive as other nations have cheaper labor and business costs aided by things such as weaker environmental and work safety rules. One conclusion is eventually there needs to be an adjustment in our overall standard of living. A downward adjustment to re-balance the economic and business realities of global trade..

cool, you agree.  so do you believe tariffs will help, hurt or be neutral?  Yes, we need to live within our means both individually and as a nation.  I'm actually a fan of living below means.  To do this on an individual level, we need to cut back or stop debt spending.  Increasing income is the other unlikely alternative.  For the nation, cutting spending is necessary but on an analytical and controlled basis.  It needn't and shouldn't be done overnight.  give people and the economy a chance to adjust.  Revenue can be increased by increasing taxes on the top earners.  They pay the vast majority of taxes already but also get the most economic and political benefit.