Bills 28th in draft capital spent on WR’s since 2020

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills are perennially contenders because of a bad division and Josh Allen. There are no other reasons. They have okay coaching. They have had pretty solid defenses. They’ve had average to below average skill players and an above average OL. They’ve won 5 straight division titles because of Allen. They are doing it without all pros and pro bowlers. They are doing it without guys that are top 5 at their positions. 

I disagree with the coaching.  Having by and away the best turnover differential in the NFL is a coaching stat.  I remember the deflategate "scandal" with the Patriots where people jumped to the conclusion that they fumbled at an absurdly low rate.  I thought.  No.  That's coaching.  You don't win five straight division titles with double digit wins with okay coaching even if you have peak Aaron Rodgers as your QB.  You don't have have a positive point differential of +786 since 2020 without good coaching.  Baltimore was second with +555 just to add how insane that stat is.  "They are doing it without guys that are top 5 at their positions" is coaching (and maybe an indictment on Beane).  

 

I get the frustration of fans and the playoff failures.  I get the anxiety of wasting maybe one of the top five arm talents and dual threats QB's in NFL history's career.  When your "floor" is a division winner that wins a Wild Card game the last five years you just can't help but think their ceiling is a Super Bowl champion.  I think they get there as long as Josh stays healthy and Beane finds him some type of consistent weapon at WR1.

[Mr. WEO]

13 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Disagree,  think you need to look at the those  teams and see how many of those players drafted are still on the team.  I'd imagine not too many so regardless of the QB situation, shows these teams just wasted their draft capital.

 

Would also argue you don't need to spend a huge amount of draft capital on WR's when you have a great QB.  Shakir was what a 5th round pick.  Do you think he'd have looked half  as good if he were on the Giants?  Lets see how Hollins does this coming year.

 

The Bills also drafted 2 TE's in Knox and Kincaid which should be factored in.  And did the trade for Diggs count or not, or did Sharp only count players actually drafted?? 

 

 

TE's don't count if you stay in the confines of the topic of the thread.  Knox has settled in to mediocrity.  Kincaid is a short yardage checkdown receiver who didn't get better his sophomore year.

 

Shakir on the Giants?  Who knows.  But Wan'Dale Robinson was able to improve every year despite  bad QB play. 

 

Hollins is a journeyman on his 6th team in 8 seasons--best season was with Derrick Carr throwing the ball in Vegas.

 

Diggs doesn't count because he also isn't on the team (and the Bills total Offense improved after he left).  He never got them over the top anyway. 

 

Anyway, yes having the best QB in the league hides a lot of faults.  Ignoring the position in the draft annually may contribute to zero SB appearances. 

 

 

11 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Not including Rogers who is probably a future hall of famer, 2 out of the 3 teams you are using here had a QB that made the playoffs this year with another team.  So as you would say your point gets lost immediately here ........

 

Jets, Broncos, Giants?

 

Rogers is a 1st ballot HOF.  The current version of Rodgers looks cooked.  Even the horribly run Jets didn't want him any more.  Darnold only played for the Jets in the 1st of those 5 years, then he bounced around the league until finding his groove in Minny (now gone)--the best Offense he's played on, with far and away the best WR in the NFL.   His record is 35-38. 

 

Giants have Jones on the roster the entire 5 year period of the topic at hand. 

 

Broncos look like they've solved their QB issue with Nix.  Russ Wilson on the Steelers went 6-5, losing 5 of their last 7 games before getting blown out in the playoffs.  The Steelers still have no QB--they are currently deciding between Wilson and Rodgers lol.  

 

 

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Cha-ching!!!

 

This!!

 

 

 

 

Nope, just the opposite.

 

It's largely teams without a real QB, and perhaps a clue as well, who spend the most draft capital on WRs.

 

 

 

Yes the post clearly shows that.  So you would agree that the issue with those teams is the QB spot, not that they spent capital on WRs, which is the point.  

 

Nabers is going to be a great NFL receiver, but the Giants passed on Nix and Penix because they are as incompetently run as the Jets.

[Cash]

14 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Many of us have been screaming to get more help for Josh. Don’t make him overcome a lack of weapons. Let those weapons be an accelerant to the best player in franchise history. If the Bills, god forbid, don’t win one with Josh Allen, this will be a WAY bigger deal in hindsight. It will be viewed as malpractice. 
 

If they are to win, it’ll be BECAUSE of Josh Allen. Priority number 1 should be, “get him whatever the hell he wants/needs to be the best version of himself.” Everything else comes after that. Other teams are built differently. The Bills are perennially contenders because of a bad division and Josh Allen. There are no other reasons. They have okay coaching. They have had pretty solid defenses. They’ve had average to below average skill players and an above average OL. They’ve won 5 straight division titles because of Allen. They are doing it without all pros and pro bowlers. They are doing it without guys that are top 5 at their positions. 

 

This is mostly where I'm at as well.  I'm just sick of seeing the other team's players make huge plays and our guys fall short.  And it's not all about investment or draft capital, either.  Kincaid was a first round pick and came up short in the clutch.  (Yes, it was a tough catch attempt; but that's his job.  I'm with the poster who called it a 6/10 in NFL difficulty.)  Diggs cost a first round pick and got 2 big contracts, and came up incredibly short in the clutch the previous year.

 

As long as we have Josh Allen, we're going to be in the playoffs most or all years.  I want to see a playoff run where the guys around Allen make those difficult catches when it's on the line.  Or I would also accept them making so many great catches early on that the game turns into a rout and we win handily.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

After watching teams select WR's in round one for many years and watching a significant number of those players not be difference makers, I've concluded that teams greatly overvalue and incorrectly evaluate the skill set of many of these players.  Sometimes teams with mediocre QB play, take a chance on receivers hoping to elevate their passing game and compensate for lackluster QB talent.  Many day two or day three draft picks work out with the right QB play and good coaching.  Nacua and Kupp are two guys that quickly come to mind.  I don't care where the Bills draft players, as long as they develop into good players.

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

17 hours ago, FireChans said:

We are 32nd in draft capital on QBs since 2020, I guess that means QB's aren't important either.

It means the metric is highly contextual. In isolation, it's meaningless. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

So who do yall like? Bech is really interesting to me but he screams TE. 

Jalen Royals is my guy in the 2nd/3rd. There's a few I like tbh. 

 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Bob Chandler's Hands said:

It means the metric is highly contextual. In isolation, it's meaningless. 

So contextually, if I said “this stat is meaningful because Josh Allen once again was relying on throwing to a Mack Hollins-tier player in the most important game of the year which we lost,” does that help?

[Einstein's Dog]

8 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

I thought it was 31st.  It would be interesting if he included Diggs as a first rounder where we would land.

Well with 32 teams you can't be tied for 32nd, you could be tied for 31st.

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Well with 32 teams you can't be tied for 32nd, you could be tied for 31st.

 

That is a very good point......

[ColoradoBills]

12 minutes ago, Florida Bills Fanatic said:

After watching teams select WR's in round one for many years and watching a significant number of those players not be difference makers, I've concluded that teams greatly overvalue and incorrectly evaluate the skill set of many of these players.  Sometimes teams with mediocre QB play, take a chance on receivers hoping to elevate their passing game and compensate for lackluster QB talent.  Many day two or day three draft picks work out with the right QB play and good coaching.  Nacua and Kupp are two guys that quickly come to mind.  I don't care where the Bills draft players, as long as they develop into good players.

 

I probably know less than anyone on this board about college players and the draft.

I do know every year evaluators and fans miss all kinds of thing.

 

When FA comes around 4 years after the draft the majority of players are termed, "sucks" but during the draft these guys are

praised by many.  There were 35 WRs drafted in 2021.  It's weird but Josh Plamer is #6 on the list today.

I do remember on draft day fans praising Toney, Bateman, the Moore's, Atwell, ALL who are behind Palmer now.

I'm not praising Josh Palmer, but I am reminding the "gurus" about the players that went rounds ahead of him who have not produced

as much.

 

It's not a science.

[Alphadawg7]

Pretty sure they don't count the 1st and 4th invested in Diggs, nor do they count the 1st and 4th invested in Kincaid, who despite being a TE was 100% drafted to be a receiving weapon for Josh.

 

And also, the top 10 teams spending the most on WR's are mostly bad teams and teams struggling to make the playoffs, if at all.  Meanwhile, we are the number 1 scoring offense since 2020, 2nd most wins, 2 AFCCG's, 5 divisional titles, a ref screw job away from a SB this year, MVP QB season, and fielded the 16th greatest offense in NFL history in 2024.  

 

If anything, this is evidence that over investing in WR isn't the solution people think it is.  

Edited Tuesday at 03:40 PM by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Pretty sure they don't count the 1st and 4th invested in Diggs, nor do they count the 1st and 4th invested in Kincaid, who despite being a TE was 100% drafted to be a receiving weapon for Josh.

 

And also, the top 10 teams spending the most on WR's are mostly bad teams and teams struggling to make the playoffs, if at all.  Meanwhile, we are the number 1 scoring offense since 2020, 2nd most wins, 2 AFCCG's, 5 divisional titles, a ref screw job away from a SB this year, MVP QB season, and fielded the 16th greatest offense in NFL history in 2024.  

 

If anything, this is evidence that over investing in WR isn't the solution people think it is.  

So wait, if they did count Kincaid and Diggs and we were top 5, would you be arguing it’s a good or bad strategy?

[TheBrownBear]

Don't get me wrong, I'd love a stud receiver (or two), but let's not pretend our WR room is why we haven't made a Super Bowl.  It's some combination of defensive talent/coaching.

[Doc Brown]

48 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Well with 32 teams you can't be tied for 32nd, you could be tied for 31st.

That was the joke.  Poor one I admit.

[Matt_In_NH]

Does the 1st and 4th for Diggs in 2020 factor in?  It should.  Anyway this is a completely meaningless shiny object for people to put on their choo choo train to make it look nicer.

Edited Tuesday at 04:14 PM by Matt_In_NH

[Bill from NYC]

19 hours ago, Maine-iac said:

Yet here we are in the playoffs every year and a top team in scoring as well.  Top 5 on that list have how many playoff visits out of 25 chances?

Imagine what Josh could do with more weapons.

[todd]

Well duh. Of course we didn't, because our WR room was pretty good with Beasley, Davis and Diggs. And I'm not sure we are counting the Diggs trade in those numbers, because we gave up three draft picks for him. Then one for gabe davis. Look, I know people will take any angle they can to hate on the current administration, but just stop. It's stupid.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

So wait, if they did count Kincaid and Diggs and we were top 5, would you be arguing it’s a good or bad strategy?

What I am pointing out and saying is that it’s a list complete devoid of context that leads to false assumptions and false positives.  That was the point.   

And clearly, teams constantly investing lots of draft capital into the WR position mostly are doing so because they have not done well in how they have spent or are teams who haven’t demonstrated the ability to build a contending roster.  

[Julio Hopkins]

54 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Don't get me wrong, I'd love a stud receiver (or two), but let's not pretend our WR room is why we haven't made a Super Bowl.  It's some combination of defensive talent/coaching.

 

I don't disagree with that, but the receiving group being weak has played a part.  Josh was throwing to Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty in the Chiefs divisional round game.  Not to mention Latavius Murray who might as well be a receiver due to Joe Brady.  

 

Looking at the groups, I'm not shocked that the offense couldn't get it done the last two years when the defense finally made a stop.  

Edited Tuesday at 04:55 PM by Julio Hopkins

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

What I am pointing out and saying is that it’s a list complete devoid of context that leads to false assumptions and false positives.  That was the point.   

 

 

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And clearly, teams constantly investing lots of draft capital into the WR position mostly are doing so because they have not done well in how they have spent or are teams who haven’t demonstrated the ability to build a contending roster.  

lol are you trolling me right now?