Bills Related Draft News & Discussion

[HappyDays]

15 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

They said the same about DK Metcalf. One trick pony. Can't run route tree. Production at Ole Miss was poor. Tape don't lie. 

 

Metcalf was a generational athlete... There's a reason he went as high as he did, and would have gone much higher if not for medical flags. Guys like Thornton come out every year which is why he's a projected day three pick. He's going to find it much harder to blaze by DBs in the NFL where everyone is bigger and stronger. I wouldn't mind drafting him in round 5 but again I struggle to place him on the roster since he doesn't play special teams and has a very specific skill set that may not even translate.

[gonzo1105]

13 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

They said the same about DK Metcalf. One trick pony. Can't run route tree. Production at Ole Miss was poor. Tape don't lie. 

Production was poor in part because he was injured both seasons he was a full time player. Had 22 yards a catch and 570 yards in 7 games. He was on pace for over 1,000 yards his sophomore season before declaring for the draft. 
 

Thornton played in 47 games between Oregon and Tennessee including 3 full season and his best season was 80 yards better than Metcalf. 
 

Im not poo pooing on Thornton but there has to be some context between the two in comparison 

[Coach Tuesday]

8 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

he was the guy I was pegging for our pick

 

NEVER FORGET THIS GOT SAID

[That's No Moon]

2 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

He’s fine, it’s already been reported 

Yeah, if I'm a team I'm gonna need my own MRI of that knee.  Lots of dudes run 40's. Most don't have a knee buckle like that.

[Warriorspikes51]

I’m sold

[Dr. Who]

7 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I’m sold

I kinda like him, too, but when I hear he's a Bills' type of rusher, I can't help thinking six to eight sacks a year and doesn't show up in the playoffs.

[Buffalo716]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I kinda like him, too, but when I hear he's a Bills' type of rusher, I can't help thinking six to eight sacks a year and doesn't show up in the playoffs.

Looks like the opposite of what we usually actually go for.. not that McDermott can't see value in that 

 

He looks to be lining up from the nine technique all the time... A lot wider than we typically line our defensive ends up in 

 

BUT... It is a strictly pass-rushing technique 

 

And we don't have a nine technique rusher right now ...

Edited Thursday at 03:07 AM by Buffalo716

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Looks like the opposite of what we usually actually go for.. not that McDermott can't see value in that 

 

He looks to be lining up from the nine technique all the time... A lot wider than we typically line our defensive ends up in 

 

BUT... It is a strictly pass-rushing technique 

 

And we don't have a nine technique rusher right now ...

Yeah, I was just going for the easy joke.

[gonzo1105]

32 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I’m sold

I had him in my last mock to the Bills. He’ll go round two or early round 3 in my opinion and wouldn’t surprise me if he goes earlier than expected in the 40s
 

He has everything you look for in a pass rusher but he is one year wonder.  He’s got perfect size wing span and athletic traits. He’s a one year wonder and you do have to question why it took him so long to find success. Can he replicate it in the NFL or not is the question 

Edited Thursday at 03:23 AM by gonzo1105

[Buffalo716]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Yeah, I was just going for the easy joke.

I got you lol  his technique kind of leads more to a pass rushing outside linebacker 

 

But he has the frame and size to be a hand in the dirt defensive lineman.. he's going to have to adjust the playing a 5-7 technique we typically line up in 

 

We also haven't had a guy who could line up at the nine technique and just attack a quarterback since before Miller got hurt

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I’m sold

He looks a little like young Von.

[Alphadawg7]

6 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Metcalf was a generational athlete... There's a reason he went as high as he did, and would have gone much higher if not for medical flags. Guys like Thornton come out every year which is why he's a projected day three pick. He's going to find it much harder to blaze by DBs in the NFL where everyone is bigger and stronger. I wouldn't mind drafting him in round 5 but again I struggle to place him on the roster since he doesn't play special teams and has a very specific skill set that may not even translate.

 

I posted about Thornton way back on page 3 of this thread and posted 2 videos, and this one in particular I suggest you or anyone watch if you want to see and understand more about Thornton.  I agree with the person in this video, there are things on his tape that certainly feel like there is untapped potential here to be more than how he was primarily used.  

 

And in terms of DK, I def think the bigger factor on where DK went was concerns over his agility scores more than any medical concerns.  I can't speak for every team, but I do know from people I know that a couple teams were interested but dropped him down on their boards over concerns about getting open on anything other than a go route.   

 

And if we go back to even just last year, people had some concerns even with BTJ on whether or not he was just a one trick vertical threat because of how he was used as well.  Not saying Thornton has the same grade coming out as BTJ did, but saying similar things were said about him and DK to where they proved at the next level they were more than that.  

 

Me personally...I like the idea of drafting this kid a lot.  He is my top overall sleeper pick in this draft.  If he gets to us in the 4th, then I would be all for us taking him.  Problem is, I am not convinced he gets to us in the 4th.  Ironically, a few years ago I had Shakir as my top sleeper pick in the draft and a guy I really wanted.  People had him going anywhere from the 2nd to the 5th and I thought we would have to take him in the 3rd to get him and was thrilled when we landed him in the 5th as I didn't even know he was still available as I had missed rounds 3 and 4.  So I am hoping its a repeat of Shakir and he does make it to us on day 3.  I do wish we had a 3rd rounder still as I would even be good using what would have been our 3rd on him to insure we got him.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

51 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I posted about Thornton way back on page 3 of this thread and posted 2 videos, and this one in particular I suggest you or anyone watch if you want to see and understand more about Thornton.  I agree with the person in this video, there are things on his tape that certainly feel like there is untapped potential here to be more than how he was primarily used.  

 

And in terms of DK, I def think the bigger factor on where DK went was concerns over his agility scores more than any medical concerns.  I can't speak for every team, but I do know from people I know that a couple teams were interested but dropped him down on their boards over concerns about getting open on anything other than a go route.   

 

And if we go back to even just last year, people had some concerns even with BTJ on whether or not he was just a one trick vertical threat because of how he was used as well.  Not saying Thornton has the same grade coming out as BTJ did, but saying similar things were said about him and DK to where they proved at the next level they were more than that.  

 

Me personally...I like the idea of drafting this kid a lot.  He is my top overall sleeper pick in this draft.  If he gets to us in the 4th, then I would be all for us taking him.  Problem is, I am not convinced he gets to us in the 4th.  Ironically, a few years ago I had Shakir as my top sleeper pick in the draft and a guy I really wanted.  People had him going anywhere from the 2nd to the 5th and I thought we would have to take him in the 3rd to get him and was thrilled when we landed him in the 5th as I didn't even know he was still available as I had missed rounds 3 and 4.  So I am hoping its a repeat of Shakir and he does make it to us on day 3.  I do wish we had a 3rd rounder still as I would even be good using what would have been our 3rd on him to insure we got him.  

 

 

 

 

I don't think DK has ever actually dispelled those concerns. He IS a one trick pony. Has been his entire NFL career. He is just elite at that trick and so it hasn't mattered. His success rate on anything other than go routes, post routes and crossers - i.e. routes that require very little change of direction and no short area quickness - is way below average. 

 

I think @HappyDays is right to say the number of profiles of that type who succeed is relatively small compared to the ones that fail. I think if you crunched the numbers that would be true, even compared to general success / fail rates. 

 

On Thornton particularly.... I haven't really done any kind of deep dive on him as yet, so I don't have a super strong position to speak from. I do think the speed and size is a bit leading to swoony eyes at this stage. He looks pretty raw, but as I say I need to properly get into his film still.

[nosejob]

10 hours ago, Solomon Grundy said:

They said the same about DK Metcalf. One trick pony. Can't run route tree. Production at Ole Miss was poor. Tape don't lie. 

IMO we need a one trick Pony. Go deep and take a CB and Safety with ya. We have all the other skill sets but that.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Buffalo716 said:

I got you lol  his technique kind of leads more to a pass rushing outside linebacker 

 

But he has the frame and size to be a hand in the dirt defensive lineman.. he's going to have to adjust the playing a 5-7 technique we typically line up in 

 

We also haven't had a guy who could line up at the nine technique and just attack a quarterback since before Miller got hurt

 

I agree, that is my take on him too. On the bits of his film where you do see him in tighter alignment he is noticeably less dynamic in his get off and there isn't a ton of pass rush plan there. I see him as someone who certainly early is going to be a situational rusher who you just bring in and line up at 9T on 3rd and longs and go Quarterback hunt. The Bills traditionally don't take those guys early. They took Javon Solomon last year who you could say was similar but he was what, a 5th rounder? He will find the transition easier if he goes to a 3-4 team in my view, but I wouldn't hate the Bills taking a shot.

[nosejob]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 I do wish we had a 3rd rounder still as I would even be good using what would have been our 3rd on him to insure we got him.  

 

Well Beane will trade down again because....no one will be left at 30 that he can't get at 40?😉

[LEBills]

Per Pauline, Bills to work out Edge Barron Sorrel from Texas today

 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-football/insider-notes-lsu-pittsburgh-pro-day-latest-will-campbell-s-arm-length-nfc-south-s-interest-konata-mumpfield

[gobills404]

12 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

I’m sold

 

[Alphadawg7]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

I don't think DK has ever actually dispelled those concerns. He IS a one trick pony. Has been his entire NFL career. He is just elite at that trick and so it hasn't mattered. His success rate on anything other than go routes, post routes and crossers - i.e. routes that require very little change of direction and no short area quickness - is way below average. 

 

I think @HappyDays is right to say the number of profiles of that type who succeed is relatively small compared to the ones that fail. I think if you crunched the numbers that would be true, even compared to general success / fail rates. 

 

On Thornton particularly.... I haven't really done any kind of deep dive on him as yet, so I don't have a super strong position to speak from. I do think the speed and size is a bit leading to swoony eyes at this stage. He looks pretty raw, but as I say I need to properly get into his film still.

 

Oh dont get me wrong, I agree with you on DK, but he has shown to be more to a degree than just the go route guy.  But he still does more than just go routes and became a top 15 WR.  

 

And I wasn't refuting that 1 trick guys in college more often don't become more than that in the NFL.  My main point is that all players are not equal.  You have to watch the film, understand how he was used, look at the traits where he is raw at and see if the potential to improve in those areas are there.  DK tested incredibly poor in short area agility, this was the concern about him at the next level, could he separate anywhere other than vertical routes.  That is not the concern with Thornton, and its an incorrect comparison for those who keep using DK as the example.  

 

Thornton isn't coming from that same physical limitation.  Watch the video I posted, he shows athletic ability in all areas of the field, not just straight line vertical speed.  His tape looks like a guy who was used a certain way and is raw in some others where he can be coached up to be more than just a 1 trick guy.  This is very different than DK and reminds me a lot more of BTJ where BTJ also had concerns about whether he could be a true WR1 or just vertical specialist.  I am not saying he grades the same as BTJ, saying that he compares more in style to BTJ than DK. 

 

He is no lock to be anything obviously, but as a mid round pick I like his potential a lot.  And honestly, even if he just became a one trick pony as a major vertical threat, that is something we are missing and would be good value for us as a day 3 pick.  If he becomes more than that, then the pick has homerun potential.  

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, nosejob said:

Well Beane will trade down again because....no one will be left at 30 that he can't get at 40?😉

 

While all options I am sure are on the table, I do think we are more likely to stay at 30 or even move up than we are to trade down.  

1. We don't have nearly as much turnover and holes to fill this year...so we are not coming in "needing" more picks.  
2. This team isn't in a mini retool like last year.  We were on the door step of a SB in 2024 with the league MVP.  This is about getting over the hump this year, where last year we were in more of a transition year away with more turnover due to age and cap.  
3. While we don't have our 3rd again like last year, we do have 2 seconds and 2 4ths as well as 3 5ths.  Beane has plenty of ammo, recouping our 3rd isn't important or a need like last year was, especially having 3 picks still in the first 2 rounds.
4. With have tons of ammo in rounds 4-6 to use to move back into round 3 if they really want a pick there as opposed to moving down in an earlier round to get one.

To be fair, if there isn't a guy they covet at 30, or if there is several they would take, then a move back is still in play.  I just think there will be at least one from DL, DB, or WR groups that will be on the board at 30 that would be worth the pick personally (if not a move up for), so I think staying put or trading up feels more likely this year.