It’s time for a generational talent, blue chipper

[MarlinTheMagician]

Maybe something like this - seems like we risk running out of talent at corner in the second before DT and DE, so I took a corner early.  You have your pick of Ravel, Morrison, Thomas there.  I offer this not so much for the specific players, but where I would use our capital.  Traded down four slots with Giants to get 105 which yielded Demetrius Knight (could have been Stutsman), traded up to take Denzel Burke:  

 

34

Shavon Revel Jr.

CB | East Carolina

TRADE

 

56

Landon Jackson

EDGE | Arkansas

 

62

Alfred Collins

DL | Texas

 

105

Demetrius Knight

LB | South Carolina

TRADE

 

109

Tai Felton

WR | Maryland

 

129

C.J. West

DL | Indiana

TRADE

 

132

Denzel Burke

CB | Ohio State

 

169

Jackson Slater

IOL | Sacramento State

 

177

Tyler Baron

EDGE | Miami (FL)

 

206

Cam Jackson

DL | Florida

Edited yesterday at 03:03 PM by MarlinTheMagician
Typo

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

What is mortgaging the future?

 

We just won 13 games and went to the AFCCG with massive dead money and our top 3 picks being rotational pieces.

 

Do you think if we had traded the Coleman and Bishop picks for a superstar player, our record would’ve been worse or better? 
 

Do you think if we didn’t pay $40M for Diggs to not play here and used that money to pay a superstar, our record would’ve been worse or better?

 

Last year showed us it’s basically impossible to mortgage our future without trading every draft pick for 3 years. Least talented team in years, worst defense in years, least contribution from rookie class in years and we lost in the AFCCG. That’s the floor.

 

Exactly.

 

Everyone criticized the Rams moves for years, because they were supposedly mortgaging their future.  Seven straight years without a first round pick.  But at the end of the day, they won a Super Bowl with all of those aggressive moves.  And thanks to their excellent drafting, they got themselves back into postseason contention within 1-2 years.  

 

The reality is the NFL Draft is an inexact science.  Not a crap-shoot.  The quality of prospect gradually decreases as the picks go by.  You have a better shot landing an elite player in the Top 5 than picking the end of the first round.  Guys in the second round are way more successful on average than prospects in the sixth/seventh.  

 

If Beane was better at finding those top guys in the 20s, then I would be all for staying put.  But history shows us that our top picks turn into Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid and Kaiir Elam.  If we need to package multiple players of that caliber to get a shot at a future All-Pro, then maybe that's the strategy we need to be taking.

 

[mannc]

20 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Exactly. People think that if Beane just wanted it as much as they do that it can be done but trading into the top ten from 30 is almost impossible. 

 

It would require pick 30, next year’s first and one or both of this year’s seconds. And even that might not be enough.

[Mat68]

Dawkins is a top 5 OT.   Brown top 10.  Groot ascending to top 10.  Benford top 10 CB ascending to top 5.  Thats pretty good.  Not many are much better than that.  Buffalos talent is under rated.  The AFC championship wasnt an accident.   

[balln]

11 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Dawkins is a top 5 OT.   Brown top 10.  Groot ascending to top 10.  Benford top 10 CB ascending to top 5.  Thats pretty good.  Not many are much better than that.  Buffalos talent is under rated.  The AFC championship wasnt an accident.   

Groot is where he’s at. He’s a top 20-30 DE. 
 

Benford is top 10 zone corner

 

just had to push back a little bit here 

[JohnNord]

29 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Exactly.

 

Everyone criticized the Rams moves for years, because they were supposedly mortgaging their future.  Seven straight years without a first round pick.  But at the end of the day, they won a Super Bowl with all of those aggressive moves.  And thanks to their excellent drafting, they got themselves back into postseason contention within 1-2 years.  

 

The reality is the NFL Draft is an inexact science.  Not a crap-shoot.  The quality of prospect gradually decreases as the picks go by.  You have a better shot landing an elite player in the Top 5 than picking the end of the first round.  Guys in the second round are way more successful on average than prospects in the sixth/seventh.  

 

If Beane was better at finding those top guys in the 20s, then I would be all for staying put.  But history shows us that our top picks turn into Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid and Kaiir Elam.  If we need to package multiple players of that caliber to get a shot at a future All-Pro, then maybe that's the strategy we need to be taking.

 

Agreed - but I wouldn’t put Keon Coleman with Kincaid and Elam.  Both of those were picks the Bills traded up in R1 to acquire.  
 

They traded down twice to draft Coleman - so this essentially is the strategy you are advocating.  

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

I feel that we should do the opposite of trying to reach for a generational talent.  20-40 in the draft are all rated about the same by scouts.  I would trade down and get into the third if I could while still getting a pick inside the top 40. (great if, for example, the Giants want Dart)  And I would use some of our later picks to trade up within rounds to make sure we get people who we believe will make the team and help now.  We could trade back to 35-ish and get one of the top corners (Ravel, Morrison, Hairston, Thomas), a quality Edge and a tank 1 technique all with our first three picks.  To me, it seems obvious we are three things short of winning a SB:  speed and ability to cover in the defensive backfield, edge pressure, and beef in the middle that can push the pocket and stop the run.  I would love the following:

 

1. 1 Tech - Grant, Harmon, T. Williams or Collins (and another one like Cam Jackson, Caldwell or Stackhouse in the 5th or 6th round)

2. Corner - Morrison, Ravel, Thomas, Hairston, Otis.  (Maybe need one later too like D. Strong, Q. Riley, or N. Williams).  

3. Edge - BC guy Ezeiraku (sp?), Sawyer, Princely, Pearce, Green, Landon Jackson

 

Then as picks permit, get Josh a mid-round receiver and a late round guard with traits.  Maybe a RB or TE late.  What we need to win is definitely out there in numbers this year - DB, DT, DE.

 

I mean…It all sounds good in theory.  This was their strategy last season.  But consider who they used the picks on - Keon Coleman, Cole Bishop, DeWayne Carter.  
 

The book is still out on all players.  Though after year 1, it’s looking like Coleman and Carter might not be much better than depth.

 

It all goes back to hitting on the picks you make whether that’s round 1 or round 3

[balln]

7 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Agreed - but I wouldn’t put Keon Coleman with Kincaid and Elam.  Both of those were picks the Bills traded up in R1 to acquire.  
 

They traded down twice to draft Coleman - so this essentially is the strategy you are advocating.  

Not expecting anything from Coleman. He’s never gonna be #1 or 2 wr. He’s a slower Mack Hollins (4.53 40). 
 

bad pick by Beane. Should have drafted Ladd mcconkey. Over thinks it too much. He can play outside. And I don’t really care if he were a slot only player. He runs a full nfl route tree and gets seperation. Besides beane loves getting Mack Hollins and Josh Palmer type players to play outside 

[26TrapDraw]

15 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I saw in a movie we can have the 6th pick for 3 2nd round picks. 😁

You pancake eating motherf&$@er!

[Maine-iac]

Honestly with all the migration on the defense I think a generational talent has a high probability and I don't think we need to "go get them".  Given Hyde, Poyer, and White all leaving we have great opportunities for someone to really step up and be great.  From a CB perspective I honestly think the right guy could come in here and be the next Tre White.  Injuries aside he could have been generational at CB.  Until the injuries he was top 5 year in and year out.  I'd love to see Amos but that's just the guy I think fits best.  Several guys out there that look good in the draft.  In this defense you could really see someone be a difference maker at Safety.  Unfortunately I don't see anyone on this roster doing that.  Maybe Bishop becomes a coverage guy, I don't see it but I couldn't be happier if I'm completely wrong.

[nosejob]

51 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Exactly.

 

Everyone criticized the Rams moves for years, because they were supposedly mortgaging their future.  Seven straight years without a first round pick.  But at the end of the day, they won a Super Bowl with all of those aggressive moves.  And thanks to their excellent drafting, they got themselves back into postseason contention within 1-2 years.  

 

The reality is the NFL Draft is an inexact science.  Not a crap-shoot.  The quality of prospect gradually decreases as the picks go by.  You have a better shot landing an elite player in the Top 5 than picking the end of the first round.  Guys in the second round are way more successful on average than prospects in the sixth/seventh.  

 

If Beane was better at finding those top guys in the 20s, then I would be all for staying put.  But history shows us that our top picks turn into Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid and Kaiir Elam.  If we need to package multiple players of that caliber to get a shot at a future All-Pro, then maybe that's the strategy we need to be taking.

 

Well picking at the end of each round specifically the 1st, creates only 2 options. Hit big on FA and stay put...or move down. Or be aggressive and move up for impact players.

[TheFunPolice]

Put Bruce Smith in his prime on this team and we already would have 1-2 SB wins with no other changes. 

 

Obviously not easy to do.

Edited 23 hours ago by TheFunPolice

[nosejob]

3 hours ago, Bruffalo said:

I think they've shown that outside of the Ed Oliver pick (who has been fine, but certainly not lived up to draft status) they don't really put a whole lot of value into the interior D-Line.  Combine that with their love or smaller DTs and I think it's a glaring issue in their roster construction strategy. 

I tend to hopefully disagree. I think they have a year by year strategy. BB took care of what was a pathetic Oline and turned it into a strength for now and the future.

I billieve he'll accomplish the same on the Dline.

[Logic]

It's BEEN time to do this, and for whatever reason, Beane has been unable to get it done.

 

Just last year, the Bills had a crying need for a wide receiver in a draft with several rare and elite looking prospects, and Beane refused to use the ammunition necessary to move up high enough for any of them. Brian Thomas looks to be the next great receiver in this league -- certainly a needle mover -- and was available 8 spots ahead of where the Bills picked. Instead they traded DOWN and picked a guy who, at best, appears to have the potential to be a high end WR2.

 

I don't disagree with the notion that the Bills need another elite guy on offense or defense (or both). But...ya know...I'm not holding my breath. Someone wake me when Beane finds one.

Edited 23 hours ago by Logic

[JohnNord]

31 minutes ago, balln said:

Not expecting anything from Coleman. He’s never gonna be #1 or 2 wr. He’s a slower Mack Hollins (4.53 40). 
 

bad pick by Beane. Should have drafted Ladd mcconkey. Over thinks it too much. He can play outside. And I don’t really care if he were a slot only player. He runs a full nfl route tree and gets seperation. Besides beane loves getting Mack Hollins and Josh Palmer type players to play outside 

 

I have the same concerns about Coleman.   Just saying that from a draft standpoint, I don’t think he can include Coleman who Buffalo traded down for 2X with Kincaid and Elam.  

[nosejob]

3 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Put Bruce Smith in his prime on this team and we already would have 1-2 SB wins with no other changes. 

 

Obviously not easy to do.

 But we had the no.1 pick...which is never fun. Here's to big baller landing Abdul Carter! 

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

 

I have the same concerns about Coleman.   Just saying that from a draft standpoint, I don’t think he can include Coleman who Buffalo traded down for 2X with Kincaid and Elam.  

The larger point is the failure to find impact players with those high picks. 
 

The Bills would’ve been better off trading that first for Metcalf instead of trading back.

[Mat68]

23 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Put Bruce Smith in his prime on this team and we already would have 1-2 SB wins with no other changes. 

 

Obviously not easy to do.

He was #1 overall.  

[bmur66]

You need to suck before you can draft one of those guys. We need some low 1st, 2nd and 3rd round picks to be diamonds in the rough.

[SoTier]

16 hours ago, Billl said:

If you had the #1 overall pick but couldn’t trade it, who would you take?

 

Abdul Carter all day, every day. 

 

Unfortunately, the Bills' entire draft (all 10 picks) is only worth 1464 points, which might get the Bills to #7 or #8.  Carter will be long gone, even if two QBs go early.