It’s time for a generational talent, blue chipper

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

It would be great to have a generational talent.  No one can argue against that.  The question is identifying in a draft class who that player is going to be.  

 

That's where our GM and scouting department need to earn their money.

 

Just like when Beane was first hired back in 2017.  Everything came down to him finally finding the Bills a franchise QB.  

It didn't matter we were drafting down in the 20s that year.  It didn't matter how risky the prospects were.  It didn't matter how many other GMs failed before him.  Beane's job was to find us a quarterback immediately.... or find himself on the unemployment line in a few years.  

Thankfully, he was successful in that assignment.

 

Since around 2020-2021, Beane's new job has been to find the missing piece (or pieces) to win us a Super Bowl.

And as of right now, he has failed to do that.  The team has been spinning it's wheels for five seasons and counting.

 

People want to say that finding elite prospects is hard.  And I don't care.  Finding a franchise QB is much harder.

The main reason Beane won the lottery in landing Josh Allen was because he knew his job depended on it.  So he confidently identified a target and then aggressively moved up to get him.  I don't see or sense that level of confidence or aggression from our front office anymore.  Which tells me Beane is comfortable in just winning the AFC East and staying off the hot seat.

 

Edited yesterday at 12:59 PM by mjt328

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, H2o said:

If we move up, it will be somewhere in the early 20's for a defensive player the staff likes. Most likely a CB. 

or a DT.  This team badly needs a great DT and a great CB2,

[Bruffalo]

Just now, ganesh said:

or a DT.  This team badly needs a great DT and a great CB2,

I think they've shown that outside of the Ed Oliver pick (who has been fine, but certainly not lived up to draft status) they don't really put a whole lot of value into the interior D-Line.  Combine that with their love or smaller DTs and I think it's a glaring issue in their roster construction strategy. 

[ganesh]

2 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

 

People want to say that finding elite prospects is hard.  And I don't care.  Finding a franchise QB is much harder.

The main reason Beane won the lottery in landing Josh Allen was because he knew his job depended on it.  So he confidently identified a target and then aggressively moved up to get him.  I don't see or sense that level of confidence or aggression from our front office anymore.  Which tells me Beane is comfortable in just winning the AFC East and staying off the hot seat.

 

Just don't understand this statement!   Why would Beane be comfortable winning the AFC East when their goal is to win the SuperBowl and the team has been a few plays away from being the AFC representative in the SB for the past 3-4 years..

 

Beane is working to not mortgage the future of this franchise....and that ties his hands...and of course he has made a few mistakes (in the draft),.,,or made some calls that have not worked out (in FA)... He and Sean have to get on the same page on the roster building and make every draft pick count on the 1st two days of the draft...they have enough draft capital to make some gr8 picks knowing that solid picks is not going to get it done.

[SoCal Deek]

13 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

The Bills won't get one of them. I was responding to the question "If we had the #1 pick what would you do". Beane may try and trade up, but I doubt he trades up enough to get the top 2 or 3 DL unless one of them falls in draft board.

Thanks. I’m assuming if one of them falls then they probably aren’t the generational talent that many are praying for. 

[Mr. WEO]

11 hours ago, Vickveto said:

What needs? The whole team came back basically. Dt and cb? Okay go get the best one if he is a blue chipper. We have always been able to find good players for cheapor late in the draft under Beane we need an anther all pro to get over the top imo. 

Golden will be the next AB without the mental issues in my personal opinion.

 

Beane has drafted only 1 All Pro (Josh--2nd team twice).

[Royale with Cheese]

26 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Beane has drafted only 1 All Pro (Josh--2nd team twice).

 

Taron Johnson was a 2nd Team All Pro in 2023.

[FireChans]

32 minutes ago, ganesh said:

Just don't understand this statement!   Why would Beane be comfortable winning the AFC East when their goal is to win the SuperBowl and the team has been a few plays away from being the AFC representative in the SB for the past 3-4 years..

 

Beane is working to not mortgage the future of this franchise....and that ties his hands...and of course he has made a few mistakes (in the draft),.,,or made some calls that have not worked out (in FA)... He and Sean have to get on the same page on the roster building and make every draft pick count on the 1st two days of the draft...they have enough draft capital to make some gr8 picks knowing that solid picks is not going to get it done.

What is mortgaging the future?

 

We just won 13 games and went to the AFCCG with massive dead money and our top 3 picks being rotational pieces.

 

Do you think if we had traded the Coleman and Bishop picks for a superstar player, our record would’ve been worse or better? 
 

Do you think if we didn’t pay $40M for Diggs to not play here and used that money to pay a superstar, our record would’ve been worse or better?

 

Last year showed us it’s basically impossible to mortgage our future without trading every draft pick for 3 years. Least talented team in years, worst defense in years, least contribution from rookie class in years and we lost in the AFCCG. That’s the floor.

[Mr. WEO]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Taron Johnson was a 2nd Team All Pro in 2023.

 

forgot about that.

 

not so much in 2024 lol

[Bermuda Triangle]

13 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I saw in a movie we can have the 6th pick for 3 2nd round picks. 😁

you pancake eating MFer

[finn]

54 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

The main reason Beane won the lottery in landing Josh Allen was because he knew his job depended on it.  So he confidently identified a target and then aggressively moved up to get him.  I don't see or sense that level of confidence or aggression from our front office anymore.  Which tells me Beane is comfortable in just winning the AFC East and staying off the hot seat.

 

Beane's motivation level doesn't change year to year; only his results change. He took a big gamble with Allen. That easily could have blown up. His critics were right: no QB had ever improved his accuracy dramatically after he was drafted. Ever. Did Beane know that Allen would be the one exception? I'm sure he hoped so, but Allen could easily have been one of the many, many quarterbacks with huge potential who end up busts. Give Beane credit, though: He went all-in on a inside-straight draw and nailed it on the River. Took guts. 

 

I also disagree that he hasn't been aggressive since drafting Allen. Just in the first two rounds moved up for Edmunds, Ford, Elam, and Kincaid. He also traded a first-rounder and a fourth for Diggs. He's no wall flower. But neither has he been particularly effective. As a drafter, he's ok, not bad, above average. But I agree with the OP that he needs to go get a blue-chip prospect, someone who will PROBABLY be great, not someone who might be, maybe. 

 

Trouble is, we're going to be the first people who squawk if he doesn't address team needs across the board. For example, say he trades both seconds and the first to move up to 12 or 13 to draft one of the best CBs. Now he has just the two fourths, a bushel of fifths, and change for WR, DE, and DT, along with a punter and LB depth. He'd need to get very lucky to land very good players at that point. 

 

So we can't have it both ways. Be nice to have a Bruce Smith to go with Allen, but are we ok with drafting him and starting Rasul Douglas, DeQuan Jones, and Josh Palmer? 

 

[MarlinTheMagician]

I feel that we should do the opposite of trying to reach for a generational talent.  20-40 in the draft are all rated about the same by scouts.  I would trade down and get into the third if I could while still getting a pick inside the top 40. (great if, for example, the Giants want Dart)  And I would use some of our later picks to trade up within rounds to make sure we get people who we believe will make the team and help now.  We could trade back to 35-ish and get one of the top corners (Ravel, Morrison, Hairston, Thomas), a quality Edge and a tank 1 technique all with our first three picks.  To me, it seems obvious we are three things short of winning a SB:  speed and ability to cover in the defensive backfield, edge pressure, and beef in the middle that can push the pocket and stop the run.  I would love the following:

 

1. 1 Tech - Grant, Harmon, T. Williams or Collins (and another one like Cam Jackson, Caldwell or Stackhouse in the 5th or 6th round)

2. Corner - Morrison, Ravel, Thomas, Hairston, Otis.  (Maybe need one later too like D. Strong, Q. Riley, or N. Williams).  

3. Edge - BC guy Ezeiraku (sp?), Sawyer, Princely, Pearce, Green, Landon Jackson

 

Then as picks permit, get Josh a mid-round receiver and a late round guard with traits.  Maybe a RB or TE late.  What we need to win is definitely out there in numbers this year - DB, DT, DE.

 

Edited yesterday at 02:34 PM by MarlinTheMagician
fix typo

[mjt328]

49 minutes ago, ganesh said:

Just don't understand this statement!   Why would Beane be comfortable winning the AFC East when their goal is to win the SuperBowl and the team has been a few plays away from being the AFC representative in the SB for the past 3-4 years..

 

Beane is working to not mortgage the future of this franchise....and that ties his hands...and of course he has made a few mistakes (in the draft),.,,or made some calls that have not worked out (in FA)... He and Sean have to get on the same page on the roster building and make every draft pick count on the 1st two days of the draft...they have enough draft capital to make some gr8 picks knowing that solid picks is not going to get it done.

 

Of course Beane wants to win the Super Bowl.  Everybody in the organization wants win the Super Bowl.

 

Ralph Wilson also wanted to win the Super Bowl.  But was he willing to hire the absolute best GM available, provide that individual with full control of the franchise, and give him all the financial resources possible in order to make the team the best it could possibly be?  The answer is no.  He wasn't even willing to sell the naming rights to the stadium.

 

My point is that when Beane was first hired, he was willing to risk everything to move up for Josh Allen.  Because he literally had nothing to lose.  If he didn't land the right QB, his time here was going to be short anyway.

 

Now that the Bills are an established winner, he doesn't seem to be willing to take that kind of risk anymore.  A lot of people (including me) believe this team absolutely needs more elite/game breaking players.  Not just an endless supply of solid/ok players.  But to get a crack at one of the better prospects in the draft, you probably need to get aggressive and move into the Top 10 picks.  

 

Instead, Beane likes to play it safe.  Make sure he's got a full stockpile of picks every season.  As long as he's hitting on 3-4 starting level players each year, the Bills roster remains in about the same place.  

 

[Gregg]

4 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Of course Beane wants to win the Super Bowl.  Everybody in the organization wants win the Super Bowl.

 

Ralph Wilson also wanted to win the Super Bowl.  But was he willing to hire the absolute best GM available, provide that individual with full control of the franchise, and give him all the financial resources possible in order to make the team the best it could possibly be?  The answer is no.  He wasn't even willing to sell the naming rights to the stadium.

 

My point is that when Beane was first hired, he was willing to risk everything to move up for Josh Allen.  Because he literally had nothing to lose.  If he didn't land the right QB, his time here was going to be short anyway.

 

Now that the Bills are an established winner, he doesn't seem to be willing to take that kind of risk anymore.  A lot of people (including me) believe this team absolutely needs more elite/game breaking players.  Not just an endless supply of solid/ok players.  But to get a crack at one of the better prospects in the draft, you probably need to get aggressive and move into the Top 10 picks.  

 

Instead, Beane likes to play it safe.  Make sure he's got a full stockpile of picks every season.  As long as he's hitting on 3-4 starting level players each year, the Bills roster remains in about the same place.  

 

 

Going from #30 into the top 10 is going to be difficult. If a player that Beane likes starts to fall on the draft board then I have no doubt Beane will try and move up. He has done it before. I don't know if he can move up enough to get into the top 10. My guess is the Bills 2026 1st Rd pick would have to be included in any deal to get to the top 10.

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Going from #30 into the top 10 is going to be difficult. If a player that Beane likes starts to fall on the draft board then I have no doubt Beane will try and move up. He has done it before. I don't know if he can move up enough to get into the top 10. My guess is the Bills 2026 1st Rd pick would have to be included in any deal to get to the top 10.

The closest comp that I can find is what the Falcons gave up to get from 27th to 6th to draft Julio Jones. But that was a long time ago and it was a trade with the Browns. 

[mjt328]

27 minutes ago, finn said:

Beane's motivation level doesn't change year to year; only his results change. He took a big gamble with Allen. That easily could have blown up. His critics were right: no QB had ever improved his accuracy dramatically after he was drafted. Ever. Did Beane know that Allen would be the one exception? I'm sure he hoped so, but Allen could easily have been one of the many, many quarterbacks with huge potential who end up busts. Give Beane credit, though: He went all-in on a inside-straight draw and nailed it on the River. Took guts. 

 

I also disagree that he hasn't been aggressive since drafting Allen. Just in the first two rounds moved up for Edmunds, Ford, Elam, and Kincaid. He also traded a first-rounder and a fourth for Diggs. He's no wall flower. But neither has he been particularly effective. As a drafter, he's ok, not bad, above average. But I agree with the OP that he needs to go get a blue-chip prospect, someone who will PROBABLY be great, not someone who might be, maybe. 

 

Trouble is, we're going to be the first people who squawk if he doesn't address team needs across the board. For example, say he trades both seconds and the first to move up to 12 or 13 to draft one of the best CBs. Now he has just the two fourths, a bushel of fifths, and change for WR, DE, and DT, along with a punter and LB depth. He'd need to get very lucky to land very good players at that point. 

 

So we can't have it both ways. Be nice to have a Bruce Smith to go with Allen, but are we ok with drafting him and starting Rasul Douglas, DeQuan Jones, and Josh Palmer? 

 

Edmunds, Ford, Elam and Kincaid were very small trade-ups, which only required a mid-round selection to go up a few picks.

Not really that aggressive in my opinion.  Every GM in the league makes these kinds of moves.

 

As I mentioned in another thread, Beane has only made three extremely bold moves since becoming the Bills GM.

Allen, Diggs and Von Miller.  One big draft move.  One big player for pick trade.  One big free agent signing.

 

If Beane isn't going to be aggressive in moving up, then he needs to do a better job finding those late gems in drafts.  As the years go by, I'm becoming less confident he can do that.  

 

Edited yesterday at 02:43 PM by mjt328

[boater]

Fans: We should get a generational player.

 

Same Fans: Beane sucks at first round picks.

[mannc]

11 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Going from #30 into the top 10 is going to be difficult. If a player that Beane likes starts to fall on the draft board then I have no doubt Beane will try and move up. He has done it before. I don't know if he can move up enough to get into the top 10. My guess is the Bills 2026 1st Rd pick would have to be included in any deal to get to the top 10.

As someone else posted here this week, according to the draft pick value chart, the Jets’ first round pick is worth more than all of the Bills’ 2025 picks combined.  Moving into the top 10 is all but impossible.

[Rigotz]

Did you call Beane to tell him to draft a generational talent?

 

HE NEEDS TO KNOW THIS INFORMATION!

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

As someone else posted here this week, according to the draft pick value chart, the Jets’ first round pick is worth more than all of the Bills’ 2025 picks combined.  Moving into the top 10 is all but impossible.

Exactly. People think that if Beane just wanted it as much as they do that it can be done but trading into the top ten from 30 is almost impossible. 

2 minutes ago, Rigotz said:

Did you call Beane to tell him to draft a generational talent?

 

HE NEEDS TO KNOW THIS INFORMATION!

We want blue chippers, not generational talent. We want PTPers and a few Diaper Dandies.

 

Sorry, the phrase "blue chipper" made me think about Dick Vitale and that made me think about college basketball. And then that made me think about "Onions!"