It’s time for a generational talent, blue chipper

[Thurman#1]

This is a new thought.

[Low Positive]

I have written 3 responses to this post and deleted them all. The OP doesn't have a lot of posts and I want to encourage new blood to post more because we tend to talk in circles amongst the same group of people. Especially in the off-season. 

Edited yesterday at 03:01 AM by Low Positive

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, Vickveto said:

What needs? The whole team came back basically. Dt and cb? Okay go get the best one if he is a blue chipper. We have always been able to find good players for cheapor late in the draft under Beane we need an anther all pro to get over the top imo. 

 

Let's review:

 

WR - Lost Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper, obtained Joshua Palmer and Laviska Shenault.

 

Right now, we have only 4 quality WR's worth rostering. We always carry 5. That's a position we should have upgraded. As it stands on paper, we haven't made waves there. Palmer is an upgrade from Hollins. Shenault is a camp body who will most likely be cut. But we still have a core that's lacking overall.

 

CB - Lost Rasul Douglas and Kaiir Elam, obtained Dane Jackson.

 

Right now, like WR, we're carrying 4 when we usually carry 5. Jackson should replace Elam... except right now, he doesn't. He replaces Rasul Douglas. If the season started tomorrow, Dane Jackson would be out starting CB... yikes.

 

DT - Lost Austin Johnson, Quinton Jefferson, and Jordan Phillips, obtained Larry Ogunjobi (Suspended until Week 7).

 

Right now, we have just Ed Oliver, Daquan Jones, and Dewayne Carter to start the season. Usually carry at least 5, sometimes 6, and we have 3. Compounding the issue is that, in my opinion, Jones is toast. If we're keeping him, he shouldn't be starting. We need 2-3 more DT's and a stud 1T as one of them.

 

DE - Lost Von Miller and Dawuane Smoot, obtained Joey Bosa and Michael Hoecht (Suspended until Week 7)

 

This could have been set. But Hoecht's suspension changes things. Bosa should be an upgrade from Miller, but you don't want him to be on the field much more than Miller did. Hoecht should be an upgrade from Smoot, but we won't have him until Week 7. Right now, we just have Groot, Bosa, Epenesa, and Solomon. You need another one and preferably someone who moves the needle.

 

A trade for a Top 10 player would have us filling one of those spots. And then not addressing another until Day 3. You can't be putting Day 3 Draft Picks out for all of those roles except 1.

 

And even if we wanted to, a team is unlikely to drop to 30. And the funniest thing is you want to keep 30 and get there. Let's review that now...

 

3 hours ago, Vickveto said:

Ideally 3 2nds and 2 3rds maybe an 4th and keep pick 30.

 

Okay, I'll play along. Let's see what your proposal would get us. We'll use the modern Rich Hill Trade Chart. This is the closest thing to modern Draft trading. The Jimmy Johnson model is antiquated.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp#google_vignette

 

So you're saying 3 2's. We have 2 of those. 56 and 62. Combine those and we'll get 182 points.

 

We don't have a third 2nd, so we'll assume you mean a 2026 2nd. The thing about following year picks is they're generally worth a round less than that year's picks (which is why we have a 4th this year for a 5th last year). So we'll go ahead and value that at the 94th pick this year, which would be 41 points.

 

Now you say 2 3rd's. The problem is, we don't even have 1 of those this year. We'll use next year's 3rd for one of them, which values as a 4th and around 18 points. A 2027 3rd in 2025 is basically useless. So for the other, we'll trade one of our 4th's and one of our 5th's to acquire one in a separate trade. That 2025 3rd would be worth 39 points.

 

Now you'd have us trading our last 4th as part of the deal. That's worth 18 points.

 

Bringing the grand total of your package of 2 2025 2nd's, 1 2026 2nd, 1 2025 3rd (that we'd have to do a separate trade for), 1 2026 3rd, and 1 2025 4th to 298 points.

 

Which on paper could get you to.... the 17th Pick in the Draft.

 

#17 is not going to get you the best player at any of those positions. And you're *really* going to be hard pressed to have a team drop from 17 to 56. 

 

And your trade would have us picking at 17 and 30 and then not picking again until Round 5. Not to mention, not having a pick on Day 2 as a whole in 2026.

 

Yeah... no.

Edited yesterday at 04:03 AM by BillsFanForever19

[Victory Formation]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

If you had the #1 overall pick but couldn’t trade it, who would you take?

Abdul Carter. He’s a generational talent. He reminds me a lot of a healthy young Von Miller.

[MarlinTheMagician]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

This is an excellent question. Maybe even be a good thread on its own. 

 

If it were my choice I take Abdul Carter. Fits a need and I think he will have a much better career than Travis Hunter. I question Hunters maturity and think he will fall off a bit at the NFL level.

 

Flat out, I don't trust anyone from Colorado.

It is a good question.  I think based on traits and on-field performance alone, I could get behind the Abdul Carter choice.  However, I know someone at that team who says Carter is not well-liked by teammates because he is self-focused rather than team focused and kind of in-your-face about his Muslim faith.  For those reasons I would not want him.  Nor would I want any of the QBs.  So what's left?  Maybe Travis Hunter - if he can be an elite DB and give you a few snaps on offense to stretch the field, could kind of be exactly what we need.  Would love to have him, would not mortgage two drafts to get him.

[Royale with Cheese]

3 hours ago, Augie said:

Somebody should have thought of this sooner! 

You know what is better than 1 blue chipper?  2 blue chippers!

[Mikie2times]

5 minutes ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

It is a good question.  I think based on traits and on-field performance alone, I could get behind the Abdul Carter choice.  However, I know someone at that team who says Carter is not well-liked by teammates because he is self-focused rather than team focused and kind of in-your-face about his Muslim faith.  For those reasons I would not want him.  Nor would I want any of the QBs.  So what's left?  Maybe Travis Hunter - if he can be an elite DB and give you a few snaps on offense to stretch the field, could kind of be exactly what we need.  Would love to have him, would not mortgage two drafts to get him.

Hunter is can’t miss territory. But it’s basically a Hershel Walker trade to do it. Even if that’s intriguing we have too many holes. But I do think he can give reps both ways and he happens to play both positions in two of our highest need areas. Again, intriguing as all hell. But we would

never do it. 

Edited yesterday at 03:30 AM by Mikie2times

[ndirish1978]

3 hours ago, Vickveto said:

Ideally 3 2nds and 2 3rds maybe an 4th and keep pick 30.

This trade offer suggested by OP in this thread is ridiculous. Why even make a thread without checking to see if it's even remotely possible? Have you ever looked at a draft value chart? https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf

 

Future picks are devalued by a round per year. So next year's third is valued as a 4th. We don't have a pick in the 3rd rd this year, so you're essentially asking us to give up 2026 and 2027 3rd rd picks for 4th and 5th rd value. Let's add up this ridiculous scenario and see how many points it gets us shall we?

 

Both 2nds this year: 624

2026 2nd (valued as a 3rd this year): 124 

2026 3rd (valued as a 4th this year): 40

2027 3rd (valued as a 5th this year): 24.2

 

Total 812.2

 

Congrats, you just traded away 5 high round players for pick 21 in the draft. This is best case scenario for your proposition as I'm using the outdated Jimmy Johnson model. The NFL isn't Madden. 

 

Let's use the newer Rich Hill draft value chart which is closer to what is actually used today

Both 2nds this year: 182

2026 2nd (valued as a 3rd this year): 41 

2026 3rd (valued as a 4th this year): 18

2027 3rd (valued as a 5th this year): 9

 

Total 250

Congrats, you just traded away 5 high round players for pick 23 in the draft.

[Richard Noggin]

3 hours ago, Vickveto said:

Who secretly is in the arch Manning sweepstakes? Six picks for one pick teams would listen. 3 2nds 2 3rds and a 4th 

 

What team would move back THAT FAR from that high? You're talking about moving back like 50-ish picks. That's the issue with these mock draft sites where we can hold onto our best picks and still trade up aggressively. There arguably isn't enough value in the Bills trade offer you've proposed to get them into the top-25 picks! (According to Rich Hill updated chart.) And the Bills don't have a 3rd this year, so those are devalued heavily.  Even adding in next year's 1st, if you're committed to trying to hold onto 30, only gets the Bills maybe into top-15. Plus you're still needing a team to sacrifice so much in the short term. 

 

☝️(I see this was just broken down in more concrete detail 10 minutes before my own more summarized reply.)

Edited yesterday at 04:32 AM by Richard Noggin

[MikePJ76]

I don’t have the chart in front of me but I think the total point value of all of buffalo’s draft picks is somewhere between 1440 and 1500.

 

the picks you are talking about would require the entire 2025 draft plus most of next years.

I think the top 5 picks are worth more than 2200 points on the chart

 

Edited yesterday at 04:36 AM by MikePJ76

[Vickveto]

24 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

What team would move back THAT FAR from that high? You're talking about moving back like 50-ish picks. That's the issue with these mock draft sites where we can hold onto our best picks and still trade up aggressively. There arguably isn't enough value in the Bills trade offer you've proposed to get them into the top-25 picks! (According to Rich Hill updated chart.) And the Bills don't have a 3rd this year, so those are devalued heavily.  Even adding in next year's 1st, if you're committed to trying to hold onto 30, only gets the Bills maybe into top-15. Plus you're still needing a team to sacrifice so much in the short term. 

 

☝️(I see this was just broken down in more concrete detail 10 minutes before my own more summarized reply.)

I said a generational talent. A generational talent plays at a pro bowl level from year one. if it takes two1 and two second so be it. If Abdul Carter is rookie, Michael Parsons, we won the championship. If Will Johnson is rookie sauce, Gardner we won a championship. If whatever DT is playing at Jalen cater rookie year Championship. We already know we can win with this core. No glaring need besides a cornerback.

[Vickveto]

29 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

I don’t have the chart in front of me but I think the total point value of all of buffalo’s draft picks is somewhere between 1440 and 1500.

 

the picks you are talking about would require the entire 2025 draft plus most of next years.

I think the top 5 picks are worth more than 2200 points on the chart

 

Two 1’s two’s maybe a fourth?

Bosa groot Oliver Carter NASCAR package. That’s  a scary site.

[Vickveto]

48 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

This trade offer suggested by OP in this thread is ridiculous. Why even make a thread without checking to see if it's even remotely possible? Have you ever looked at a draft value chart? https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp?RequestTeam=buf

 

Future picks are devalued by a round per year. So next year's third is valued as a 4th. We don't have a pick in the 3rd rd this year, so you're essentially asking us to give up 2026 and 2027 3rd rd picks for 4th and 5th rd value. Let's add up this ridiculous scenario and see how many points it gets us shall we?

 

Both 2nds this year: 624

2026 2nd (valued as a 3rd this year): 124 

2026 3rd (valued as a 4th this year): 40

2027 3rd (valued as a 5th this year): 24.2

 

Total 812.2

 

Congrats, you just traded away 5 high round players for pick 21 in the draft. This is best case scenario for your proposition as I'm using the outdated Jimmy Johnson model. The NFL isn't Madden. 

 

Let's use the newer Rich Hill draft value chart which is closer to what is actually used today

Both 2nds this year: 182

2026 2nd (valued as a 3rd this year): 41 

2026 3rd (valued as a 4th this year): 18

2027 3rd (valued as a 5th this year): 9

 

Total 250

Congrats, you just traded away 5 high round players for pick 23 in the draft.

Julio Jones went for two 1’s which one was pick 27 a second round pick which was pick 59 two 4 round picks to move all the way up to pick four. If we get a Julio Jones level player, we’re going to win a championship. I said generational talent so if the trade package which is six pics, that’s a lot of draft capital is it  enough fine . that still not the point of this post a pro bowl rookie talent gets us over the top I believe.

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

This is a new thought.

I’d rather talk about trying to acquire a pro ball level talent with limited cap. Space do they to talk about some fifth string wide receiver who’s barely going to play or some third string running back who can hopefully replace cook.

[BullBuchanan]

5 hours ago, chongli said:

So you want say a Travis Hunter, a generational CB/WR, projected to go first overall? Do you think we have anywhere near what that would take to move up?

He's not a generational talent at either position. He's just a collegiate novelty.

[Thurman#1]

16 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

Julio Jones went for two 1’s which one was pick 27 a second round pick which was pick 59 two 4 round picks to move all the way up to pick four. If we get a Julio Jones level player, we’re going to win a championship. I said generational talent so if the trade package which is six pics, that’s a lot of draft capital is it  enough fine . that still not the point of this post a pro bowl rookie talent gets us over the top I believe.

I’d rather talk about trying to acquire a pro ball level talent with limited cap. Space do they to talk about some fifth string wide receiver who’s barely going to play or some third string running back who can hopefully replace cook.

 

First, hunh??? I guess you're using a phone but it's genuinely not quite clear.

 

As for wanting to talk about whether getting an elite talent is better than, um, not getting an elite talent ... this doesn't seem like a new or particularly interesting thought to me. I've certainly thought it. I think that everything equal we'd all agree. But things are almost never equal. It doesn't seem to me worth starting a thread over.

 

Anyway, Massey and Thaler is the most famous study pointing this out but every study on the subject has shown the same thing. Which is that if they want to improve your chances of better outcomes, your favorite teams should NOT use valuable high-level picks to move up in the draft. In fact, trading back generally increases the value of your output.

 

Oh, and remind me, how many Lombardi trophies did teams with Julio Jones on them win? We'll never know how many they would have won if they had used those picks rather than trading them. But it's certainly possijble it might have been more than zero.

Edited yesterday at 05:34 AM by Thurman#1

[Vickveto]

Just now, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

As for wanting to talk about whether getting an elite talent is better than, um, not getting an elite talent ... this doesn't seem like a new or particularly interesting thought to me. I've certainly thought it. I think that everything equal we'd all agree. But things are almost never equal. 

 

Massey and Thaler is the most famous study pointing this out but every study on the subject has shown the same thing. Which is that if they want to improve your chances of better outcomes, your favorite teams should NOT use valuable high-level picks to move up in the draft. In fact, trading back generally increases the value of your output.

 

Oh, and remind me, how many Lombardi trophies did teams with Julio Jones on them win? We'll never know how many they would have won if they had used those picks rather than trading them. But it's certainly possijble it might have been more than zero.

We are already at the point where we already have a really good team. Atlanta didn’t have a Josh Allen or a McDermott. We have 10 pics and I don’t see how 10 rookies can make this team.

[Thurman#1]

57 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

We are already at the point where we already have a really good team. Atlanta didn’t have a Josh Allen or a McDermott. We have 10 pics and I don’t see how 10 rookies can make this team.

 

 

Atlanta absolutely did have a terrific team. 

 

They went 13-3 the year before the offseason they made the Julio Jones trade. They bought into the whole "we're one player away" thing. Thought all they needed was one WR.

 

There's a reason Brandon Beane keeps saying "You're never one player away." The reason being it's true. It's never one guy. It's a whole bunch of guys working together.

[Thurman#1]

I see that nobody has mentioned this before, with the exception of me, very quickly.

 

They've done academic studies on this, whether it's better to make big trades up, giving away lots of high picks.

 

It isn't.

 

Massey & Thaler   The Loser's Curse

 

That's the most well-known, but there are plenty more. And every single one comes to the same conclusion. To increase your chances of success, do NOT trade up so much that you have to give up premium assets. Ideally, trade back. More picks tends to have better results. 

 

You can succeed occasionally. But the odds are very far against you.

[BillsFanForever19]

14 hours ago, Vickveto said:

I said a generational talent. A generational talent plays at a pro bowl level from year one. if it takes two1 and two second so be it. If Abdul Carter is rookie, Michael Parsons, we won the championship. If Will Johnson is rookie sauce, Gardner we won a championship. If whatever DT is playing at Jalen cater rookie year Championship. We already know we can win with this core. No glaring need besides a cornerback.

 

It's possible another great talent would have won us the Chiefs game. Maybe not.

 

But you know what would have happened if we got past the Chiefs? We would have been steamrolled against the Eagles, just like they were.

 

Your idea that we're one great player away is folly. As is your idea that there's no glaring holes beyond CB.

 

We have a grand total of 3 DT's for Week 1. We carried SIX last season. Daquan Jones shouldn't be starting, he was a disaster for us last season. Not only do we have him still starting right now - we don't even have a backup to him.

 

And remove the plays from Mack Hollins in the Championship game and our receiving game was nowhere. He's not here anymore. We don't know what Palmer is going to look like with Josh. And we still need another WR. Preferably a good one as our core is still looked at as just a group of guys with no True #1.

 

DE may have been the one upgrade we made on the team this offseason. But then Hoecht got suspended. Now we've got what we had last year to start the season (minus Miller and Smoot) and keeping our fingers crossed that Bosa stays healthy. And he's not going to take more than half of the snaps.

 

And then yes, there's Cornerback. Currently we'd be starting either Dane Jackson or Ja'Marcus Ingram. That's another recipe for disaster.

 

The goal isn't to beat the Chiefs. The goal is to hoist a Lombardi. We're not going to do that by filling 1 of these 4 positional needs with 1 great player and the rest with Day 3 Draft Picks.

 

The Eagles are a complete team on both sides of the ball. For us to compete with them, we need more than just one more great player. Do that and we'll just get attacked at the spots that are currently poorly built and we're done for against teams like the Chiefs and especially the Eagles.

Edited 19 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[Charles Romes]

Don’t panic and give away valuable picks to move up a few slots in the first. How has that worked out so far.  

Edited yesterday at 08:55 AM by Charles Romes