It’s time for a generational talent, blue chipper

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Vickveto said:

I believe it’s Will Johnson but I honestly don’t care which corner it is, trade up and get your number one corner who is going to play like a number one corner come playoff time. Rookie contracts are cheap and we don’t have much cap. Space.

 

It comes back to @gonzo1105's point. I just don't think there is big separation between the top 2 or 3 corners and the next group.

[Vickveto]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

It comes back to @gonzo1105's point. I just don't think there is big separation between the top 2 or 3 corners and the next group.

A trade is imminent. we’re not keeping 10 rookies. We could trade out to later draft that’s a possibility or we could take a big swing and try to go get the missing piece. That’s my stance and I hope we do it.

[gonzo1105]

3 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

A trade is imminent. we’re not keeping 10 rookies. We could trade out to later draft that’s a possibility or we could take a big swing and try to go get the missing piece. That’s my stance and I hope we do it.

I think and have said this before I can see one of two things happening. Bills go best CB/DL at 30. Then trade up at 56 using a 4th and 5th to secure the other need. I think this is more likely if they go DL at 30 than CB. 
 

The other scenario is Buffalo stays put at 30 and 56 and trade down from 62 to recoup a 3rd and an additional pick and move around the board in the middle rounds to secure their other needs 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Vickveto said:

A trade is imminent. we’re not keeping 10 rookies. We could trade out to later draft that’s a possibility or we could take a big swing and try to go get the missing piece. That’s my stance and I hope we do it.

 

I don't think we are keeping 10 rookie either. I just don't think there is a realistic missing piece trade up in round one that makes sense, is affordable and will justify that cost. It isn't that I am anti-trade ups per se. I wanted the Bills to trade up for Brian Thomas Jnr last year. I wanted them to trade up for Jordan Addison the year before. I just don't see that guy who can be "the missing piece" in this class beyond the top 4 or 5 guys who are just not in realistic range. 

 

My strategy would be to pick the best player available at a premium position at #30, then use our 6 picks from the late 4th onwards to move around the board in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds to match value with need. 

[nosejob]

I think we'll see a big move one way or the other. Let's say we get to the Jags in rd. 1 and they take J. Walker leaving Graham and Carter still there. Beane can use future picks as needed for all I care.  He can also do what I stated above.

 

But to trade down this year will not be as fruitful as last....and nobody's really thrilled about those results. Since we're always picking where we are, future 1sts should be in play to make the most of a draft filled with talent at needs.

[Warriorspikes51]

40 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I think we'll see a big move one way or the other. Let's say we get to the Jags in rd. 1 and they take J. Walker leaving Graham and Carter still there. Beane can use future picks as needed for all I care.  He can also do what I stated above.

 

But to trade down this year will not be as fruitful as last....and nobody's really thrilled about those results. Since we're always picking where we are, future 1sts should be in play to make the most of a draft filled with talent at needs.

 

I'd rather we just try and figure where we have to be for Grant.  If he makes it into the 20's especially 

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, nosejob said:

I think we'll see a big move one way or the other. Let's say we get to the Jags in rd. 1 and they take J. Walker leaving Graham and Carter still there. Beane can use future picks as needed for all I care.  He can also do what I stated above.

 

But to trade down this year will not be as fruitful as last....and nobody's really thrilled about those results. Since we're always picking where we are, future 1sts should be in play to make the most of a draft filled with talent at needs.

 

We are not getting to the Graham and Carter range. We just aren't. So let's leave that to the side for now.... who are the guys that "fill" this draft and match our needs that you would want the Bills to consider trading up for in say the teens or the early 20s? Because that is a realistic conversation to have. 

[gonzo1105]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We are not getting to the Graham and Carter range. We just aren't. So let's leave that to the side for now.... who are the guys that "fill" this draft and match our needs that you would want the Bills to consider trading up for in say the teens or the early 20s? Because that is a realistic conversation to have. 

I agree with this but honestly, and the Bills obviously will have better insight than us, but picks 9 to 32 and beyond can be a slew of like 30 different players as team grades are going to be wildly different on these guys. Grant can go as high as 11 or as low as 30. Barron is another great example, does he go in the teens of 20s or does some needy CB team take him top 10. It’s going to be so hard to predict until their into the high teens of this draft 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I agree with this but honestly, and the Bills obviously will have better insight than us, but picks 9 to 32 and beyond can be a slew of like 30 different players as team grades are going to be wildly different on these guys. Grant can go as high as 11 or as low as 30. Barron is another great example, does he go in the teens of 20s or does some needy CB team take him top 10. It’s going to be so hard to predict until their into the high teens of this draft 

 

I broadly agree, although I slightly disagree on Barron I think he is a lock for the top 15. But I'd put a ton of guys in that category of anywhere between #9 with the Saints and #32 with the Eagles..... Mykeil Williams, Shermar Stewart, James Pearce, the three DTs after Graham, Jihad Campbell, both the safeties, the top four receivers, both tight ends.... 

 

The guys I think are top 10 locks are:

Cam Ward

Abdul Carter

Travis Hunter

Mason Graham

 

Then guys who could go top 10 but are top 15 locks:

Ashton Jeanty

Will Campbell

Jahdae Barron

Armand Membou

 

I then think Mike Green and Jalon Walker will definitely go top 20. After that guys have very wide ranges IMO. 

 

What I'm trying to get from @nosejob and @Vickveto, not in an antagonistic way, but in the spirit of genuine discussion is ignore that first gaggle of guys who are out of reach... who might fall into the realistic trade up window who they would consider going up for?

 

[gonzo1105]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I broadly agree, although I slightly disagree on Barron I think he is a lock for the top 15. But I'd put a ton of guys in that category of anywhere between #9 with the Saints and #32 with the Eagles..... Mykeil Williams, Shermar Stewart, James Pearce, the three DTs after Graham, Jihad Campbell, both the safeties, the top four receivers, both tight ends.... 

 

The guys I think are top 10 locks are:

Cam Ward

Abdul Carter

Travis Hunter

Mason Graham

 

Then guys who could go top 10 but are top 15 locks:

Ashton Jeanty

Will Campbell

Jahdae Barron

Armand Membou

 

I then think Mike Green and Jalon Walker will definitely go top 20. After that guys have very wide ranges IMO. 

 

What I'm trying to get from @nosejob and @Vickveto, not in an antagonistic way, but in the spirit of genuine discussion is ignore that first gaggle of guys who are out of reach... who might fall into the realistic trade up window who they would consider going up for?

 

Yea , much like FA, I like people get jacked about the big splash and think that will be the difference in winning a SB or not. I mean to answer your question, and I know your not asking me in particular but I only see 4 guys I would move up for and to me there is a possibility that all 4 could still be there at 30. Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon, Trey Amos, and Hairston 

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, uticaclub said:

I thought Polian got fired for what he said about the owners daughter. Kelly was the highest-paid player when he came to Buffalo. 

 

I think that one of Ralph's daughters was married to a guy who worked in the Bills finance department.  He was probably the head of it, being the owner's SIL.   I think maybe his name was Litman or something like that.

[GunnerBill]

22 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

Yea , much like FA, I like people get jacked about the big splash and think that will be the difference in winning a SB or not. I mean to answer your question, and I know your not asking me in particular but I only see 4 guys I would move up for and to me there is a possibility that all 4 could still be there at 30. Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon, Trey Amos, and Hairston 

 

What about Pearce and Green? You excluding because you think they will go earlier than you'd be willing to move up to? Or because you think rumoured off field stuff means they are probably not realistic for the Bills?

[uticaclub]

19 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

I think that one of Ralph's daughters was married to a guy who worked in the Bills finance department.  He was probably the head of it, being the owner's SIL.   I think maybe his name was Litman or something like that.

You may be right, I was young during those years, had no idea what a GM or MIKE LB did, just going off what I was told

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

Mike Williams, Marcell Dareus, JP Losman, EJ Manuel, Aaron Maybin, Leodis McKelvin, CJ Spiller, Donte Whitner, Erik Flowers, John McCargo, Sammy Watkins. 
 

These 11 guys were drafted by the Bills in the first round of the drought era. They were either flat out busts or they were players they didn’t come close to being as good as their draft spot. 
 

Winfield doesn’t count because he was drafted in 99 the last year we were in the playoffs if you want to get technical. 
 

The other guys Nate Clements, Marshawn Lynch, Lee Evans, Willis McGahee, Eric Wood, Stephon Gilmore were good NFL players so 6 guys but….

 

They did re-sign Eric Wood

Stephon Gilmore hated Buffalo and became the #1 paid CB in the league. Same thing happened for Nate Clements if I recall correctly minus the hatred of Buffalo 

 

They did re-sign Lee Evans who was a very good NFL player for a short period and the Bills have been well documented they they wanted Ben Roethlisberger badly which led to the ill fated Losman pick. 
 

Marshawn Lynch thought Buffalo was boring and hit a woman while driving so he wanted out of here. 
 

Cant recall why the Bills let McGahee go but overall during the drought they had 11 terrible picks and 6 good ones. 2 RBs, 2 DBs, 1 WR, and a Center. They reupped two of them , 2 couldn’t wait to get out of here, 2 became the highest paid player at his position (Clements), and 1 I don’t recall. 
 

 

So yes the Bills drought did last so long because they drafted terrible and B. Couldn’t find a QB 

 

I don't disagree that they drafted poorly.  I just see their poor drafting as a symptom of what was wrong with the Bills in the last 2 decades of Ralph Wilson's ownership.  They lost 2 excellent talent evaluators in Polian and Butler (3 if you include AJ Smith who left with Butler and became the Chargers GM after Butler died).  I think some of their best scouts may have followed Butler west because the quality of the Bills draft picks, even high ones, dropped off. 

 

After Donahoe was fired, and Russ Brandon became the Bills de-facto GM (although Marv Levy held that title for a couple of years), Brandon and Jauron made personnel decisions.  The quality of Bills drafts dropped even more.  Lots of the Bills rosters between 2006 and 2010 were filled with UDFAs and waiver wire refugees.  It improved somewhat under Nix and then Whaley, but the team's philosophy of maximizing profits lasted until Terry Pegula bought the team and hired Rex.

 

Winfield wasn't re-signed during the Drought era.  That's why I included him.

Edited 8 hours ago by SoTier

[L Ron Burgundy]

3 hours ago, Vickveto said:

A trade is imminent. we’re not keeping 10 rookies. We could trade out to later draft that’s a possibility or we could take a big swing and try to go get the missing piece. That’s my stance and I hope we do it.

I think this is accurate.   If Beane views this draft as weak we may trade back to next year.   Honestly it's smart if that's an accurate assessment of the draft.

[L Ron Burgundy]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We are not getting to the Graham and Carter range. We just aren't. So let's leave that to the side for now.... who are the guys that "fill" this draft and match our needs that you would want the Bills to consider trading up for in say the teens or the early 20s? Because that is a realistic conversation to have. 

You think we have to move up to get K Grant if he's a major target?

[Nihilarian]

21 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Beane tried to trade up with NYG at #2, Browns at #4, and Broncos at #5 …. Elway has been quoted as saying overlooking JA  was the worst call he made as a GM, and I’m sure the other two would at least privately agree …

 

It has turned out to be the biggest draft pick the Bills have ever made … but probably a little bit of luck and bad management from the others in hindsight 

While no one knows but Beane and his crew I'm sure that he tried to trade up with every team to draft Josh Allen. He had a deal with Denver #5 but the guy they wanted was still there. I'm pretty sure if that draft was redone every team would have drafted Josh Allen.

 

Just think, the Brownies passed on him twice. What an inept org. That with the worst QB trade in NFL history. A 5 year 230 million guaranteed contract for a rapist and is owned 46 million in each of the next two seasons. How effed can you get...somewhere JaMarcus Russell is smiling.

 

Be happy you're not a Browns fan... 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

You think we have to move up to get K Grant if he's a major target?

 

So hard to say. As @gonzo1105 says.... he could go top 15.... he could also fall to the Bills. His range is wide.

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, Vickveto said:

A trade is imminent. we’re not keeping 10 rookies. We could trade out to later draft that’s a possibility or we could take a big swing and try to go get the missing piece. That’s my stance and I hope we do it.

 

No, we're not keeping 10. And there will be trades. But there won't be a trade like what you're talking about that would require into the Top 5-10. 

 

And unfortunately, after the suspensions to Hoecht and Ogunjobi, there's actually more open roster spots than I was hoping and expecting at this point. We're actually closer to 10 than we are the 1 missing piece you're talking....

 

QB:

Josh Allen

Mitch Trubisky (maybe Mike White if they want to save money and he shows up in camp)

 

RB:

James Cook

Ray Davis

Ty Johnson

Reggie Gilliam (FB)

 

WR:

Khalil Shakir

Josh Palmer

Keon Coleman

Curtis Samuel

 

TE:

Dalton Kincaid 

Dawson Knox

 

OL:

Dion Dawkins

David Edwards

Connor McGovern

O'Cyrus Torrence

Spencer Brown

Ryan Van Demark

Alec Anderson

Tylan Grable

 

DE:

Greg Rousseau

Joey Bosa

AJ Epenesa

Javon Solomon

 

DT:

Ed Oliver

Daquan Jones

Dewayne Carter

 

LB:

Terrel Bernard

Matt Milano

Dorian Williams

Edefuan Olofoshio

Joe Andreesen 

 

CB:

Christian Benford

Taron Johnson (Nickel)

Dane Jackson

Ja'Marcus Ingram

 

S:

Taylor Rapp

Cole Bishop

Damar Hamlin

Darrick Forrest

Cam Lewis

 

ST:

Tyler Bass

Jake Camarda (?)

Reid Ferguson

Brandon Codrington (maybe Shenault instead if they feel he offers more as a Returner)

 

That's 46 roster spots. There's 7 open spots right now. And some of these 46 spots they may want to upgrade from. Specifically Carmada at Punter, maybe one of the LB'ers, maybe only one of Forrest and Hamlin stick, maybe only one of Jackson and Ingram stick. Multiple positions need big time help. Specifically DT, CB, Edge, and WR. Open spots we need 2-3 DT's (and one of them should start over Jones at 1T), at least 1 CB (and they should be in the mix to start), 1 DE, 1 WR (and they should be a solid one given the lacking group we have), and 1 TE. Maybe a Punter too as I doubt we go into camp relying on Camarda.

 

Long story short - there's going to be more Draft Picks making this team than I expected would to this point.

Edited 6 hours ago by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

@BillsFanForever19 - Ray Cook? I though James's brother was name Dalvin?